Global| Oct 11 2019U.S. Import Prices Rise With Oil Costs; Export Prices Fall
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Import prices increased 0.2% (-1.6% y/y) during September following a 0.2% August decline, revised from -0.5%. A 0.1% easing had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These figures are not seasonally adjusted and do [...]
Import prices increased 0.2% (-1.6% y/y) during September following a 0.2% August decline, revised from -0.5%. A 0.1% easing had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These figures are not seasonally adjusted and do not include import duties.
The small rise in import prices last month was impacted by lower nonpetroleum import costs. They eased 0.1% (-1.1% y/y) after holding steady for two straight months. Petroleum prices rose 2.3% (-5.8% y/y) and reversed August's decline. Industrial supplies & materials costs excluding petroleum increased minimally (-3.3% y/y) after falling for four consecutive months. Motor vehicles & parts prices improved 0.1% (-0.5% y/y) after a 0.2% gain and nonauto consumer goods prices edged 0.1% higher (-0.4% y/y). Capital goods prices were unchanged (-1.1% y/y) for a second straight month. Foods, feed and beverage prices declined 0.3% (+1.2% y/y), off for the fourth consecutive month.
Export prices slipped 0.2% (-1.8% y/y) following a 0.6% decline. A 0.1% dip had been expected. Agricultural commodities prices dropped 1.8% last month (+0.2% y/y) after falling 2.3%. Nonagricultural export costs edged 0.1% lower (-1.9% y/y) after falling 0.3%. Industrial supplies & materials decreased 0.3% (-6.5% y/y), down for the fourth month in the last five. Motor vehicle & parts prices edged down 0.1% (+0.1% y/y), also off for the fourth month in five. Capital goods prices held steady (0.6% y/y) and nonauto consumer goods prices fell 0.3% (+0.5% y/y). Foods, feeds & beverage prices declined 1.6% (+1.5% y/y) after a 2.1% fall.
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imports - All Commodities | 0.2 | -0.2 | 0.0 | -1.6 | 3.1 | 2.9 | -3.3 |
| Petroleum & Petroleum Products | 2.3 | -2.3 | 0.2 | -5.8 | 22.0 | 26.6 | -19.7 |
| Nonpetroleum | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -1.1 | 1.3 | 1.1 | -1.5 |
| Exports - All Commodities | -0.2 | -0.6 | 0.2 | -1.8 | 3.4 | 2.4 | -3.2 |
| Agricultural | -1.8 | -2.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.5 | -5.4 |
| Nonagricultural | -0.1 | -0.3 | 0.2 | -1.9 | 3.7 | 2.5 | -3.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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