Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics

Economy in Brief

    • Decline reverses earlier strength.
    • Crude oil costs lead the weakening.
    • Lumber & metals prices follow, but textile costs rise.
  • Recent financial market gains have been underpinned by resilient global data, AI-fuelled optimism, and hopes that most central banks will continue to loosen monetary policy. Yet beneath the surface, a more complicated picture may be emerging. In the US, housing indicators are flashing warnings about household balance sheets and credit channels (chart 1), while China’s latest data—covering retail sales, industrial output, and property—underscore persistent weakness (chart 2). In the UK, this week’s data showing sticky services inflation is complicating the Bank of England’s easing path (chat 3), while back in the US, medium-term inflation expectations have been rising despite softer oil prices (chart 4), hinting at a more disruptive role for trade policy. Against this cyclical backdrop sit deeper structural challenges: global energy consumption remains overwhelmingly dependent on fossil fuels, the clean energy sector has lost momentum amid high costs and policy uncertainty, and equity markets have punished renewables even as climate imperatives intensify (charts 5 and 6). Together, these dynamics suggest that while markets continue to trade on optimism, the mix of weak housing signals, patchy Chinese demand, sticky inflation, and an uneven energy transition potentially leaves the global outlook more fragile than headline performance implies.

    • Home sales remain below recent high in December.
    • Sales are slightly higher m/m in most of country.
    • Median sales price slips from record high.
    • The headline index fell more than 16 points to -0.3, led by outsized declines in both new orders and shipments.
    • The ISM-adjusted composite fell below the critical 50 level for the first time in four months, also pointing to a decline in activity.
    • Delivery times shortened further while both prices paid and prices received indexes posted gains.
    • Initial claims surge to highest level in eight weeks.
    • Continuing claims extend upward trend.
    • Insured unemployment rate holds steady.
    • Purchase applications edge higher while loan refinancing declines.
    • Effective fixed-interest rate on 30-year loans remains at four-month low.
    • Average loan size declines.
    • Increase brings starts to five-month high.
    • Multi-family starts surge while single-family starts rise moderately.
    • Building permits decline is led by multi-family.
    • Sales +1.4%, the 14th q/q rise in 15 qtrs.; +5.3% y/y, the lowest since Q2'22.
    • Online share of total retail sales up to 16.3%, the highest since Q2'20.
    • Nonstore sales rebound, up for the fourth quarter in five.
    • Widespread gain in online sales led by bldg. materials & garden equipt. (+34.7% q/q).