Robert Brusca

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 




<div align="left"><img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080227i.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">

German export and import prices are rising very strongly in
January and the three-month growth rates show acceleration. But
jettison energy, export and import price trends are a lot steadier,
still showing some acceleration in the recent months. Excluding energy,
import prices are still accelerating from a growth rate of 0.7% over 12
months to 1.4% over six months to 2.4% over three months. This sort of
acceleration will not please the ECB but given the tenacious rise in
oil prices this performance is not so bad.

<div align="left"></div>
</div>


<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th colspan="8" scope="col">German
International and Domestic Inflation Trends </th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td colspan="3">% m/m</td>
<td colspan="4">% Saar</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">SA</td>
<td>Jan-08</td>
<td>Dec-07</td>
<td>Nov-07</td>
<td>3-Mo</td>
<td>6-Mo</td>
<td>12-Mo</td>
<td>Yr-Ago</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Export P</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Import P</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>9.5%</td>
<td>5.2%</td>
<td>5.4%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"> NSA</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">ExpX-Petrol</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">ImpX-Petrol</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"> Memo: SA</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">CPI</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">CPIx-energy</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">PPI</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>6.9%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">PPIx-Energy</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

German export and import prices are rising very strongly in January and the three-month growth rates show acceleration. But jettison energy, export and import price trends are a lot steadier, still showing some acceleration in the [...]

German Ex Energy Export and Import Prices Are Still Falling Yr/Yr

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>

 



<div align="left"><img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080227h.jpg" width="353">
The table below shows Euro area money and credit growth comparing it to money growth in several key countries. We also provide data on real balances (inflation-adjusted money and credit). Despite ongoing financial turmoil, here data show that there has been little slowing in EMU money and credit. Credit to residents has slowed a touch over the three months compared to six-month and one-year rates. Overall business loan growth in EMU has barely slowed.
Money growth has held up around the various main global money centers as well. Unexpectedly, the growth in real money in EMU has been stronger than in the US where it is off by 0.1% over three months. Over 12 months US M2 is up at just a pace of 1.4% compared to 7.9% in the EMU. Real money growth in the UK is quite steady. In Japan real money growth is slow but is being held fairly steady.
The memo item on the right of the table shows how relentless the rise has been in the price of crude oil in these various periods. Central banks have done a really impressive job in running policy amid this ongoing energy shock as well and a new shock stemming from food prices.
Judging by interest rate policy, monetary policy in the US is loose. But judging from the growth in real balances, US monetary policy is tighter than in UK, EMU or Japan over three months and tied with Japan for stringency over the past year. <div align="left"></div></div>


<colgroup></colgroup>



<th colspan="8" scope="col"> Look at Global and Euro Liquidity Trends</th>

<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Saar-all</td>
<td colspan="3"> Euro Measures (EA13): Money &amp; Credit</td>
<td colspan="3"> G-10 Major Markets: Money</td>
<td>Memo</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&#128;&#128;-Supply M2</td>
<td> Credit:Resid</td>
<td> Loans</td>
<td> $US M2</td>
<td> &pound;&pound;UK M4</td>
<td> &yen;&yen;Jpn M2+Cds</td>
<td> OIL:WTI</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"> 3-MO</td>
<td>9.8%</td>
<td>10.8%</td>
<td>10.3%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
<td>12.6%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>41.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"> 6-MO</td>
<td>11.4%</td>
<td>13.1%</td>
<td>10.7%</td>
<td>6.4%</td>
<td>11.6%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>58.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"> 12-MO</td>
<td>11.3%</td>
<td>12.9%</td>
<td>11.0%</td>
<td>5.8%</td>
<td>12.5%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>69.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"> 2Yr</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
<td>12.2%</td>
<td>10.8%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>12.8%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>19.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"> 3Yr</td>
<td>15.0%</td>
<td>17.9%</td>
<td>16.4%</td>
<td>8.0%</td>
<td>19.4%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>40.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="8" class="firstcol"> Real Balances: deflated by Own CPI. Oil deflated by US CPI</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"> 3-MO</td>
<td>5.1%</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
<td>5.6%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>9.7%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>32.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"> 6-MO</td>
<td>7.1%</td>
<td>8.7%</td>
<td>6.4%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>8.5%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>51.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"> 12-MO</td>
<td>7.9%</td>
<td>9.5%</td>
<td>7.6%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>10.1%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>62.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"> 2Yr</td>
<td>7.6%</td>
<td>9.4%</td>
<td>8.1%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>10.1%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>15.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"> 3Yr</td>
<td>7.1%</td>
<td>8.9%</td>
<td>8.0%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>10.0%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>21.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>



</html>

The table below shows Euro area money and credit growth comparing it to money growth in several key countries. We also provide data on real balances (inflation-adjusted money and credit). Despite ongoing financial turmoil, here data [...]

Money and Credit Trend in Euro Area Remain Robust…

Tom Moeller

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<div align="left"><img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080227c.jpg" width="353">
New orders for durable manufactured goods dropped 5.3% last month. The decline only slightly exceeded Consensus expectations for a large 4.0% downdraft but the surge during December was revised down. The weakness in orders was heralded by the orders component in the Institute for Supply Management&#39;s Composite Index of factory sector activity. It was below the breakeven level of 50 in both December and January.</div><div align="left">
Excluding the notably volatile transportation sector, orders fell 1.6% and the December increase of 2.0% was revised down. 
Transportation sector orders fell 13.4% due both to a 31.0% (+79.3% y/y decline in new orders for aircraft &amp; parts and a 0.8% (-5.8% y/y) decline in orders for motor vehicles parts. The nondefense portion of aircraft orders collapsed 30.5% (+86.6% y/y).</div><div align="left"><img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080227d.jpg" width="353">
Orders for nondefense capital goods fell 8.1% due to that decline in aircraft orders. During the last ten years there has been an 80% correlation between the y/y gain in nondefense capital goods orders and the rise in equipment &amp; software spending in the GDP accounts. The correlation with capital goods shipments is, as one would expect, a larger 92%.<div align="left">
During January orders for nondefense capital goods less aircraft fell 1.4% after a 5.2% December surge. Growth in these orders actually has accelerated recently with the three month rise up to 15.5% (AR) which made up a decline this past Fall.</div></div><div align="left">
Computers &amp; related products orders fell 11.7% (+0.8% y/y) and gave back all of the 5.1% December rise. Orders for communications equipment dropped 11.9% (+3.5% y/y). Orders for machinery slipped 1.5% (+14.6% y/y) after the 7.8% December spike. 
Overall shipments of durable goods last month rose 1.8% (2.8% y/y). Less transportation shipments 1.5% (3.5% y/y). </div><div align="left">
Inventories of durable goods rose 0.6% (3.7% y/y). Less transportation inventories rose a firm 0.4% and the three month increase was a strong 4.7% (AR).<div align="left">
Yesterday&#39;s speech by Federal Reserve Board Vice Chairman Donald L. Cohn can be found <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/kohn20080226a.htm"> here</a>.</div><div align="left"></div></div>

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED01/@ED0101/@ED0101.HTM">NAICS Classification</a></th>
<th scope="col">January</th>
<th scope="col">December</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Durable Goods Orders</td>
<td>-5.3%</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>6.3%</td>
<td>9.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Excluding Transportation</td>
<td>-1.6%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>7.6%</td>
<td>8.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Nondefense Capital Goods</td>
<td>-8.1%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>14.9%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>10.6%</td>
<td>17.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Excluding Aircraft</td>
<td>-1.4%</td>
<td>5.2%</td>
<td>5.4%</td>
<td>-1.6%</td>
<td>8.5%</td>
<td>11.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

New orders for durable manufactured goods dropped 5.3% last month. The decline only slightly exceeded Consensus expectations for a large 4.0% downdraft but the surge during December was revised down. The weakness in orders was [...]

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Off Big, As Expected

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080227b.jpg" width="353">
During January new single family home sales fell 2.8% m/m to 588,000. The decline dropped sales to the lowest level since 1995 and they were down 57.7% since the peak in July of 2005. A sales rate of 600,000 was the Consensus expectation for last month and January sales were nearly one quarter below the 2007 average.
Reflecting the weakness in the auto industry, sales in the Midwest fell 7.6% m/m to a level 71.5% below the 2003 peak. In the West sales actually ticked up slightly m/m in January but remained down 67.4% from the 2005 peak.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080227a.jpg" width="353">
December sales in the South fell by 2.4% and were 53.9% below the 2005 peak. Sales in the Northeast fell 10.3% m/m and were 50% below the 2004 monthly peak.
The median price for a new single family home fell again last month by 1.5%. That left prices down 17.7% from early 2007 peak.
The inventory of new homes for sale declined 2.2% last month and the supply of homes is off 15.9% from the 2005 peak.
The decline in the number of homes for sale continued to not keep pace with the drop in home sales. At the current low sales rate, the 9.9 months&#39; supply of homes on the market was more than double the rate for all of 2005 and it was the highest since 1981.<div align="left"><div align="left">
Today&#39;s testimony by Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben S. Bernanke can be found <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/bernanke20080227a.htm"> here</a>.</div><div align="left"></div></div>

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">US New Homes</th>
<th scope="col">January</th>
<th scope="col">December</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Sales (SAAR, 000s)</td>
<td>588</td>
<td>605</td>
<td>-33.9%</td>
<td>773</td>
<td>1,049</td>
<td>1,279</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Median Price (NSA, $)</td>
<td>216,000</td>
<td>219,200</td>
<td>-15.1%</td>
<td>242,383</td>
<td>243,067</td>
<td>234,208</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

During January new single family home sales fell 2.8% m/m to 588,000. The decline dropped sales to the lowest level since 1995 and they were down 57.7% since the peak in July of 2005. A sales rate of 600,000 was the Consensus [...]

US New Home Sales Off 57.7%, Midwest Sales Down 71.5%

Louise Curley

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080226i.jpg" width="353">
Germany&#39;s business confidence rose, if only slightly, for the second month in a row. The IFO Business Climate Index for industry and trade rose 0.7% in February to 104.1 (2000=100) after having risen 0.4% in January. The increase in confidence among members of the business community follows an unexpected increase in confidence in the financial community earlier this month as reported by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW).<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080226j.jpg" width="353">
In both cases the increase in confidence was due more to a more positive appraisal of current economic conditions that offset a slight deterioration in expectations. The first chart shows the IFO Business Climate Index and its two major components: the appraisal of current conditions and expectations of condition six months ahead.
Among the data released today* are diffusion indexes for the Business Climate for the Manufacturing, Construction, Wholesale and Retail Trade businesses, which are shown in the second chart. The most striking feature of this chart is the positive 18.8 percentage point change in confidence in the retail trade sector. Although the February survey shows only a 1.3% excess of optimists over pessimists in retail trade, this is the first excess of optimists since the early nineties. How much of the change was due to the appraisal of current conditions and/or to expectations will be answered later this week.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">GERMAN BUSINESS CONFIDENCE (IFO)&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Feb 08</th>
<th scope="col">Jan 08&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Feb 07&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">M/M&nbsp; Chg&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y Chg&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Business Climate (2000=100)</td>
<td>104.1</td>
<td>103.4</td>
<td>107.0</td>
<td>0.68</td>
<td>-2.71</td>
<td>103.2</td>
<td>106.5</td>
<td>95.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Current Conditions&nbsp;</td>
<td>110.3</td>
<td>107.9</td>
<td>111.5</td>
<td>2.22</td>
<td>-1.08</td>
<td>111.2</td>
<td>108.4</td>
<td>94.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Expectations</td>
<td>98.2</td>
<td>99.0</td>
<td>102.7</td>
<td>-0.81</td>
<td>-4.38</td>
<td>101.4</td>
<td>102.7</td>
<td>96.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Business Climate (Percent Balance)</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Manufacturing</td>
<td>16.3</td>
<td>17.4</td>
<td>23.0</td>
<td>-1.1</td>
<td>-6.8</td>
<td>22.3</td>
<td>19.7</td>
<td>1.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Construction&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</td>
<td>-24.9</td>
<td>-16.9</td>
<td>-11.8</td>
<td>-8.0</td>
<td>-13.1</td>
<td>-16.2</td>
<td>-15.8</td>
<td>-37.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Wholesale Trade</td>
<td>5.8</td>
<td>3.2</td>
<td>16.0</td>
<td>2.6</td>
<td>-10.2</td>
<td>11.0</td>
<td>11.6</td>
<td>-9.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"> &nbsp;&nbsp; Retail Trade</td>
<td>1.3</td>
<td>-17.5</td>
<td>-7.8</td>
<td>18.8</td>
<td>9.1</td>
<td>-6.6</td>
<td>-6.1</td>
<td>-28.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Germany's business confidence rose, if only slightly, for the second month in a row. The IFO Business Climate Index for industry and trade rose 0.7% in February to 104.1 (2000=100) after having risen 0.4% in January. The increase in [...]

German Business Confidence Improves--A Big Increase In Confidence In Retail Trade

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080226k.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Italy&#8217;s Business Confidence Indicator by ISAE is still
dropping but not at the sort of speed that we saw in 1998 or in 2000.
The downward gradient is steep enough to worry about but not as
uncontrolled as in some recent past episodes. Indeed, we plot the index
on a two-scale chart that suggests that period of weakening may be
coming to an end. On this chart we see that rate of change lags behind
the index (of necessity) and that when it stops worsening, that is a
sign that the index itself may be near its bottom. In 1998, both the
rate of change and the index itself bottomed at the same time. In 2001
the rate of change and the index were separated but both paused before
falling and consolidating late in the year. What we see now is that the
raw index is still falling but the speed of the drop is not
accelerating and that is a constructive development.
Beyond the overall index and its behavior, there are its
merits; its details: The survey across total industries and its
components show that every component across the main industry sectors
is now barely at or below its own midpoint (since January 1999) except
for the reading on inventories. Inventories remain high. Overall orders
are in the 38th percentile of their range, roughly the same for both
domestic and foreign components.
The consumer goods sector is the weakest. Total orders are in
their 13th percentile only. Domestic orders are
the relative weakest, in their 11th percentile.
Foreign orders are just above the bottom third of their range.
Inventories are in the top third of their range. And production is in
the 13th percentile of its range - in some sense
balanced with orders.
Italy is seeing weakness across industry. Business morale is
poor. For now, the good news is that the deterioration is not
accelerating.
<div align="left"> </div>



<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr><th colspan="7" scope="col"> Italy ISAE Business Sentiment</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td colspan="2">Since January 1999</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>Feb-08</td>
<td>Jan-08</td>
<td>Dec-07</td>
<td>Nov-07</td>
<td>Percentile</td>
<td>Rank</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Biz Confidence</td>
<td>89.8</td>
<td>91.3</td>
<td>91.7</td>
<td>92.2</td>
<td>43.7</td>
<td>68</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol" colspan="7">TOTAL INDUSTRY</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol" colspan="7">Order books &amp;
Demand</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>-13</td>
<td>-8</td>
<td>-6</td>
<td>-7</td>
<td style="color: red;">38.1</td>
<td>54</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Domestic</td>
<td>-16</td>
<td>-15</td>
<td>-9</td>
<td>-11</td>
<td style="color: red;">35.7</td>
<td>62</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Foreign</td>
<td>-17</td>
<td>-11</td>
<td>-6</td>
<td>-9</td>
<td style="color: red;">36.4</td>
<td>53</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Inventories</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>66.7</td>
<td>51</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Production</td>
<td>-13</td>
<td>-12</td>
<td>-4</td>
<td>-4</td>
<td style="color: red;">28.6</td>
<td>75</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol" colspan="7">INTERMEDIATE</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol" colspan="7">Order books &amp;
Demand</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>-14</td>
<td>-13</td>
<td>-13</td>
<td>-11</td>
<td style="color: red;">40.0</td>
<td>56</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Domestic</td>
<td>-14</td>
<td>-17</td>
<td>-15</td>
<td>-12</td>
<td style="color: red;">43.4</td>
<td>49</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Foreign</td>
<td>-21</td>
<td>-13</td>
<td>-13</td>
<td>-10</td>
<td style="color: red;">33.9</td>
<td>70</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Inventories</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>7</td>
<td>65.5</td>
<td>29</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Production</td>
<td>-13</td>
<td>-14</td>
<td>-11</td>
<td>-5</td>
<td style="color: red;">31.0</td>
<td>64</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol" colspan="7">INVESTMENT GOODS</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol" colspan="7">Order books &amp;
Demand</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>-4</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>50.7</td>
<td>42</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Domestic</td>
<td>-8</td>
<td>-5</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>-6</td>
<td>50.7</td>
<td>39</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Foreign</td>
<td>-8</td>
<td>-1</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>-1</td>
<td style="color: red;">44.6</td>
<td>46</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Inventories</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>62.2</td>
<td>34</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Production</td>
<td>-4</td>
<td>-1</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>5</td>
<td style="color: red;">40.9</td>
<td>46</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol" colspan="7">CONSUMER GOODS</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol" colspan="7">Order books &amp;
Demand</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>-23</td>
<td>-18</td>
<td>-5</td>
<td>-10</td>
<td style="color: red;">13.6</td>
<td>93</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Domestic</td>
<td>-24</td>
<td>-21</td>
<td>-8</td>
<td>-15</td>
<td style="color: red;">11.1</td>
<td>90</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Foreign</td>
<td>-18</td>
<td>-24</td>
<td>-11</td>
<td>-15</td>
<td style="color: red;">36.2</td>
<td>57</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Inventories</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>8</td>
<td>65.4</td>
<td>47</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Production</td>
<td>-20</td>
<td>-17</td>
<td>-2</td>
<td>-8</td>
<td style="color: red;">13.9</td>
<td>95</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey2">
<td class="firstcol" colspan="7">Total number of months: 110</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

Italy’s Business Confidence Indicator by ISAE is still dropping but not at the sort of speed that we saw in 1998 or in 2000. The downward gradient is steep enough to worry about but not as uncontrolled as in some recent past episodes. [...]

Italy’s Business Morale is Still Sinking

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080212a.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
According to the International Council of Shopping Centers
ICSC-UBS Chain store survey, chain store sales rose 0.5% last week
after no change during the prior period. Sales so far this month are up
0.5% from January after a 1.3% gain during that period.

During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation
between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto
retail sales less gasoline.

The ICSC-UBS retail
chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales
(stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers:
Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.


The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS fell
0.7% two weeks ago. It as the fifth decline in the last six weeks.
Retail gasoline prices recently moved further off the high
reached last Spring of over $3.20 per gallon, according to the US
Department of Energy survey.Last week the average retail price for
regular grade gasoline fell to $2.96, down 8.0% from last year's peak
in May. Prices did, however, remain up nearly 6% from an average of
$2.80 last year.
The recent decline in gasoline prices owes mostly to the
topping and decline in the price of crude oil. For spot WTI crude oil
prices last week of $88.42 per barrel were down 10% from last year's
high which nearly touched $100 per barrel.
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">ICSC-UBS
(SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">02/23/08</th>
<th scope="col">02/16/08</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Chain
Store Sales</td>
<td>489.9</td>
<td>487.4</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W4/@W4.HTM">Weekly
Prices</a></th>
<th scope="col">02/25/08</th>
<th scope="col">02/18/08</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Retail Gasoline ($ per Gallon)</td>
<td>3.13</td>
<td>3.04</td>
<td>31.3%</td>
<td>2.80</td>
<td>2.57</td>
<td>2.27</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Light Sweet Crude Oil,
WTI&nbsp; ($ per bbl.)</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>100.01</td>
<td>72.2%</td>
<td>94.00</td>
<td>61.11</td>
<td>58.16</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

According to the International Council of Shopping Centers ICSC-UBS Chain store survey, chain store sales rose 0.5% last week after no change during the prior period. Sales so far this month are up 0.5% from January after a 1.3% gain [...]

U.S. Chain Store Sales Up, Gasoline Prices Surged

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

Rising long-term yields a global phenomenon

US financial market concerns shifting from growth to inflation

Economic activity is picking up in the US but remains lackluster abroad

Policy uncertainty has surged since the US national elections.

Recent turnaround in US economic surprises leading to increases in rate-cut expectations

The outlook has brightened in the US, while it has dimmed for other major economies

Headline US PCE inflation elevated by sticky services prices

US and global equity prices have recently diverged

US leading global upturn in economic surprises

Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary easing apart from Japan

Recent rise in global supply chain pressures could augur a pickup in global inflation pressures

Underperforming German economy generating increased policy uncertainty relative to Europe and the US

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

New York

London

Singapore

Tokyo

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

250430N1.jpg

250430O1.jpg

Real GDP eased 0.3% SAAR (+2.1% y/y) during the first quarter of 2025 after increasing 2.4% in Q4’24 and 3.1% in Q3’24. A 0.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. It was the first decline since Q1 2022.

Foreign trade subtracted 4.83 percentage points from growth last quarter as imports surged 41.3% (13.4% y/y) ahead of tariffs, which began to come into effect in the first quarter. The rise followed a 1.9% decline in Q4’24. Exports rose 1.8% (3.0% y/y) after easing 0.2% in Q4. Inventories added 2.25 percentage points to growth after subtracting 0.84 percentage point from Q4 growth.

Real final sales to domestic purchasers grew 2.3% (2.9% y/y) in Q1 after rising 3.0% in Q4. Personal consumption expenditures rose 1.8% (3.1% y/y) following a 4.0% gain. Durable goods spending fell 3.4% (+5.3% y/y) after surging 12.4% in Q4. Motor vehicle purchases declined 11.1% (+5.5% y/y) after strengthening 19.7% in Q4. Spending on home furnishings & appliances gained 1.5% (6.1% y/y) following a 5.4% rise. Recreational goods & vehicle outlays rose 2.5% (7.0% y/y) last quarter after a 13.9% Q4 increase.

Nondurable goods outlays rose 2.7% (3.0% y/y) following 3.1% growth in Q4. Apparel spending increased 6.7% (2.5% y/y) following a 5.0% rise. Food & beverage buying gained 2.5% (2.3% y/y) after a 1.8% increase. Gasoline & fuel oil purchases increased 4.6% (3.4% y/y) after falling 2.0% in Q4.

Spending on services increased 2.4% last quarter (2.7% y/y) after a 3.0% gain. Outlays on housing & utilities increased 3.4% (1.8% y/y) after rising 1.1% in Q4. Health care expenditures rose 4.0% (4.8% y/y) following a 4.7% strengthening. Transportation outlays increased 5.3% (4.6% y/y) after a 3.7% rise while recreation spending rose 4.7% (2.8% y/y) following a 4.5% rise. Restaurant & hotel expenditures declined 2.1% (+0.5% y/y) following a 2.8% rise. Financial services expenditures rose 1.9% (2.0% y/y) after a 3.1% Q4 increase.

Business fixed investment increased 9.8% (3.6% y/y) following a 3.0% decline in Q4. Expenditures on structures rose 0.4% (-0.4% y/y) after a 2.9% increase. Expenditures on producers’ durable equipment jumped 22.5% (8.0% y/y) after falling 8.7%.  Outlays on information processing equipment soared 69.3% (18.9% y/y) following a 7.3% decline. Industrial equipment investment fell 1.4% (-0.3% y/y) after easing 0.9%. Intellectual property product spending rose 4.1% (1.8% y/y) following a 0.5% decline. 

Residential structures investment increased 1.3% (-0.1% y/y) in Q1 after a 5.5% Q4 rise.

250430P1.jpg

250430Q1.jpg

Government spending fell 1.5% (+2.4% y/y) after a 3.1% Q4 rise. Federal government expenditures declined 5.1% (+2.9% y/y) after rising 4.0% in Q4. National defense expenditures declined 8.0% (+4.0% y/y) after increasing 4.8% in Q4. State & local government spending rose 0.8% (2.1% y/y) following a 2.5% rise.

The GDP price index rose 3.7% (2.6% y/y) after increasing 2.3% in Q4. It was the largest increase since Q4’22. A 2.4% increase had been expected. The PCE chain price index increased 3.6% (2.5% y/y) following a 2.4% rise. The PCE price index excluding food and energy rose 3.5% (2.8% y/y) after increasing 2.6% in Q4. The business fixed investment price index rose 0.4% (1.8% y/y) after 1.5% rise. The residential price index strengthened 3.9% (3.2% y/y) after a 1.9% rise while the government price index increased 4.7% (2.8% y/y) following a 2.1% rise.

The GDP data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis detail in the national accounts. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.

250430R1.jpg

250430S1.jpg

- Decline in GDP is first in three years.
- Foreign trade subtracts substantially ahead of tariffs.
- Domestic final demand growth weakens.
- Price index strengthens with higher core PCE prices.

U.S. GDP Unexpectedly Declines in Q1’25; Prices Strengthen

Michael J. Moran

250430A.jpg

250430B.jpg

High-side readings on the price indexes for personal consumption expenditures in January and February caused some concern about emerging price pressure, especially with some policies of the Trump administration possibly adding to the upward force. However, March brought notable relief, with the headline price index falling slightly (-0.04%). A marked decline in energy prices was helpful (-2.7%), but core prices also were subdued, increasing less than 0.1%.  Year-over-year changes were still above the Fed’s target of 2%, but only barely so for the headline measure (2.3%). The core index backed away from the reading of 3.0% in February, but the latest reading of 2.7% was in line with observations in the past year, and still uncomfortably above target.

Consumers roused from a winter slumber in March, with nominal outlays increasing 0.7%. With inflation restrained, real outlays also posted a gain of 0.7%. Spending on durable gods stood out, with real outlays advancing 3.2%. Real outlays for both nondurable goods and services rose 0.4%, a solid pace. Signs of life were certainly welcome after an average decline of 0.1% in January and February. The March rebound left growth of 1.8% (annual rate) in the first quarter.

The brisk increase in spending in March was supported by a solid gain in personal income (0.5% in both nominal and real terms). Growth in wage income was firm at 0.5%, while proprietors’ income was robust with a gain of 1.8% (not annualized!). The farm sector led the advance in proprietors’ income, but the nonfarm sector also was strong (0.6%).

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver’s **USECON** database with detail in the **USNA** database. The Action Economics forecasts are in **AS1REPNA**.

250430C.jpg

250430D.jpg

- Price pressure eases.
- Spending rebounds after two soft months.

Personal Income, Consumption, and Prices in March

250430F20.jpg

250430G20.jpg

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking home sales measure based on contract signings, from the National Association of Realtors rose 6.1% to 76.5 (-0.6% y/y) during March after rising a little-revised 2.1% in February. These changes followed a 4.6% January decline.

The rise in March sales occurred as the rate on a 30-year mortgage eased to an average 6.65% from 6.84% in February. This rate was well above a low of 2.68% averaged in December 2020.

Pending home sales were up in most regions of the country. Sales in the Midwest rose 4.9% (1.4% y/y) last month after rising 1.8% in February. Sales in the South increased 9.8% (-0.4% y/y) following a 5.8% February rise. Sales in the West improved 4.8% (-2.0% y/y) after falling 3.0% in February. Sales in the Northeast were off 0.5% (-3.0% y/y) in March after falling 0.9% in February.

The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the purchase of an existing home is signed, similar to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed, which is usually a couple of months after the sales contract has been signed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity leads the level of closed existing home sales by about two months.

The series dates back to 2001 and are available in Haver's **PREALTOR** database. Weekly mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the **WEEKLY** database.

- Sales rise to highest level in four months.
- Strength is evident throughout most of country.

U.S. Pending Home Sales Surge in March

Sandy Batten

250430F5.jpg

250430G5.jpg

The employment cost index (ECI) for civilian workers, arguably the most accurate measure of labor compensation in the United States, rose 0.9% q/q (3.6% y/y) in Q1, the same quarterly increase as in last year’s Q4, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The quarterly gains have fluctuated between 0.8% and 1.0% for the past six quarters. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 0.9% q/q increase and a 3.5% y/y gain.

Wages and salaries for civilian workers rose 0.8% q/q (3.5% y/y) in Q1, down from 1.0% q/q in Q4. This tied the Q3 2024 quarterly rise as the smallest increase since Q2 2021. It was also the smallest y/y increase since Q2 2021. Benefits increased by an outsized 1.2% q/q (3.9% y/y) in Q1 versus 0.8% q/q in Q4. This is the largest quarterly gain since Q2 2022. In general, employment cost gains remain above the pace observed prior to the pandemic but are slowing gradually.

Private industry workers’ compensation rose 0.8% q/q (3.4% y/y) in Q1, down from 0.9% q/q (3.6% y/y) in Q4. Wages and salaries for private industry workers increased 0.8% q/q (3.4% y/y) in Q1 versus 0.8% q/q (3.7% y/y) in Q4. The quarterly gain in Q1 tied that in Q3 2024 as the smallest increase since Q4 2020. Benefits for private industry workers jumped 1.2% q/q (3.6% y/y). the largest quarterly gain since Q2 2022. The acceleration in benefits in Q1 was primarily in service-producing industries.

Compensation in private goods-producing industries increased 1.0% q/q (3.2% y/y) in Q1, the largest quarterly gain in five quarters, versus a 0.7% q/q increase in Q4. Compensation in construction jumped 1.3% q/q, its largest quarterly increase since Q2 2022, up from a 0.6% q/q gain in Q4. Manufacturing compensation growth slowed to 0.7% q/q, its slowest quarterly advance since Q4 2020, from 0.8% q/q in Q4. Compensation in private service-producing industries increased 0.8% q/q (3.5% y/y), down slightly from a 0.9% q/q gain in Q4. Compensation in education and health services jumped 1.3% q/q, its largest quarterly gain since Q3 2023. In contrast, compensation in other services edged up 0.1% q/q in Q1, its smallest quarterly advance since before the pandemic.

The employment cost index measures the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts across occupations and industries. It is provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is available in Haver’s **USECON** database. Consensus estimates from the Action Economics Forecast Survey are in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

250430H5.jpg

250430I5.jpg

- Compensation grew 0.9 q/q in Q1, the same pace as in Q4.
- Wage growth slowed to 0.8% q/q while benefits surged 1.2% q/q, their largest quarterly increase since Q2 2022.

Employment Cost Growth Steady in Q1 2025

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

250430J4.jpg

250430K4.jpg

The ADP National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls rose 62,000 (1.4% y/y) during April after increasing 147,000 (1.4% y/y) during March, revised from 155,000. A 124,000 April rise in ADP employment had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Growth in median annual pay for "job stayers" eased to 4.5% y/y during April, from 4.6% y/y in March and from 4.7% y/y in the prior two months. Manufacturing sector pay grew 4.6% y/y during April, down from 4.8% y/y in March. Construction sector pay was unchanged at 4.7% y/y. Natural resource & mining sector pay grew 4.4% y/y. Financial sector pay rose 5.1% y/y, while education & health services pay rose 4.7% y/y. Leisure & hospitality pay also increased 4.7% y/y. Professional & business service sector pay increased 4.3% y/y as did trade, transportation & utilities pay. Information pay rose 4.1% y/y. Median annual pay for “job changers” rose 6.9% y/y after 6.7% y/y in March.

Small business hiring (less than 50 employees) rose 11,000 (0.6% y/y) after rising 18,000 (0.6% y/y) in March, revised down from 52,000. Employment at medium-sized firms (50-499,000 employees) rose 40,000 (1.1% y/y) after rising 43,000 (1.1% y/y). Large business hiring (500+ employees) rose 12,000 (3.4% y/y) in April, after rising 61,000 (3.6% y/y) in March, revised from 59,000.

Goods-producing employment rose 26,000 (1.3% y/y) in April, after rising 16,000 (1.3% y/y) during March, revised from 24,000. Manufacturing jobs rose 4,000 (-0.2% y/y) after rising 17,000 (-0.3% y/y) in March. The number of construction sector jobs rose 16,000 (3.4% y/y) in April, following a 2,000 (3.6% y/y) March increase, revised from 6,000. Natural resources & mining jobs rose 6,000 (2.8% y/y) in April after falling 3,000 (+1.9% y/y) in March.

The number of service-producing jobs rose 34,000 (1.4% y/y) during April, following a rise of 131,000 (1.4% y/y) in March. Professional & business services employment fell 2,000 (0.6% y/y) after rising 46,000 (0.7% y/y) in the prior month, revised from 57,000. Employment in the financial industry rose 20,000 (2.1% y/y) in April, after rising 38,000 (2.0% y/y) in March. Leisure and hospitality employment increased 27,000 (3.0% y/y), following a 23,000 (2.9% y/y) March increase, revised from 17,000. The number of education & health care jobs fell 23,000 (1.6% y/y) in April, following a 15,000 (1.8% y/y) rise in March, revised from 12,000. Information sector employment fell 8,000 (-0.1% y/y) after a rise of 3,000 (0.2% y/y) in March. The number of jobs in trade, transportation & utilities rose 21,000 (0.4% y/y) in April, after falling 4,000 (+0.4% y/y) in March, revised from a 6,000 fall. Employment in “other” services rose fell 1,000 (+3.2% y/y) following a 10,000 (3.4% y/y) rise in March, revised from 11,000.

By region, employment in the Northeast increased 10,000 (1.9% y/y) in April, following an increase of 95,000 (2.0% y/y) in March, revised from 89,000. Employment in the Midwest rose 42,000 (1.5% y/y) after a gain of 84,000 (1.4% y/y) in March, revised from 81,000. In the South, employment rose 3,000 (1.3% y/y) during April, after rising 10,000 (1.4% y/y) in March, revised from 27,000. In the West, employment rose 9,000 (0.6% y/y) after declining 43,000 (+0.6% y/y), revised from a 41,000 decline in March.

The ADP National Employment Report and Pay Insights data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Historical figures date back to January 2010 for private employment. Pay data date back to October 2020. The expectation figure is available in Haver's **AS1REPNA** database.

250430L4.jpg

250430M4.jpg

- Employment increase is modest in both services & factory sectors.
- Wage growth for “job stayers” moderates.
- Small and medium-sized business employment slows.

Economy in Brief: February 2008

Jump to:

German Ex Energy Export and Import Prices Are Still Falling Yr/Yr

Money and Credit Trend in Euro Area Remain Robust…

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Off Big, As Expected

US New Home Sales Off 57.7%, Midwest Sales Down 71.5%

US New Home Sales Off 57.7%, Midwest Sales Down 71.5%

German Business Confidence Improves--A Big Increase In Confidence In Retail Trade

Italy’s Business Morale is Still Sinking

U.S. Chain Store Sales Up, Gasoline Prices Surged