Global| Feb 27 2008US New Home Sales Off 57.7%, Midwest Sales Down 71.5%
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
During January new single family home sales fell 2.8% m/m to 588,000. The decline dropped sales to the lowest level since 1995 and they were down 57.7% since the peak in July of 2005. A sales rate of 600,000 was the Consensus [...]
During January new single family home sales fell 2.8% m/m to 588,000. The decline dropped sales to the lowest level since 1995 and they were down 57.7% since the peak in July of 2005. A sales rate of 600,000 was the Consensus expectation for last month and January sales were nearly one quarter below the 2007 average.
Reflecting the weakness in the auto industry, sales in the Midwest fell 7.6% m/m to a level 71.5% below the 2003 peak. In the West sales actually ticked up slightly m/m in January but remained down 67.4% from the 2005 peak.
December sales in the South fell by 2.4% and were 53.9% below the 2005 peak. Sales in the Northeast fell 10.3% m/m and were 50% below the 2004 monthly peak.
The median price for a new single family home fell again last month by 1.5%. That left prices down 17.7% from early 2007 peak.
The inventory of new homes for sale declined 2.2% last month and the supply of homes is off 15.9% from the 2005 peak.
The decline in the number of homes for sale continued to not keep pace with the drop in home sales. At the current low sales rate, the 9.9 months' supply of homes on the market was more than double the rate for all of 2005 and it was the highest since 1981.
Today's testimony by Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben S. Bernanke can be found here.
| US New Homes | January | December | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Sales (SAAR, 000s) | 588 | 605 | -33.9% | 773 | 1,049 | 1,279 |
| Median Price (NSA, $) | 216,000 | 219,200 | -15.1% | 242,383 | 243,067 | 234,208 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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