Global| Feb 26 2008U.S. Chain Store Sales Up, Gasoline Prices Surged
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
According to the International Council of Shopping Centers ICSC-UBS Chain store survey, chain store sales rose 0.5% last week after no change during the prior period. Sales so far this month are up 0.5% from January after a 1.3% gain [...]
According to the International Council of Shopping Centers ICSC-UBS Chain store survey, chain store sales rose 0.5% last week after no change during the prior period. Sales so far this month are up 0.5% from January after a 1.3% gain during that period.
During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS fell 0.7% two weeks ago. It as the fifth decline in the last six weeks.
Retail gasoline prices recently moved further off the high reached last Spring of over $3.20 per gallon, according to the US Department of Energy survey.Last week the average retail price for regular grade gasoline fell to $2.96, down 8.0% from last year's peak in May. Prices did, however, remain up nearly 6% from an average of $2.80 last year.
The recent decline in gasoline prices owes mostly to the topping and decline in the price of crude oil. For spot WTI crude oil prices last week of $88.42 per barrel were down 10% from last year's high which nearly touched $100 per barrel.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 02/23/08 | 02/16/08 | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 489.9 | 487.4 | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.6% |
| Weekly Prices | 02/25/08 | 02/18/08 | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Gasoline ($ per Gallon) | 3.13 | 3.04 | 31.3% | 2.80 | 2.57 | 2.27 |
| Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl.) | -- | 100.01 | 72.2% | 94.00 | 61.11 | 58.16 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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