Robert Brusca

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091028d.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Last month Italian consumers felt great and Italian businesses
felt worse. In October, Italian consumers felt decidedly worse while
business sentiment advanced nicely to a 13 month high. 

Still the overall biz indicator stands only in the 37th
percentile of its long term range that is well below the mid point and
not near enough to a normal, let alone recovery, reading yet. Orders
score a -51 raw reading a figure that stand in the bottom 20th
percentile of its range. Domestic orders are relatively better off than
foreign orders as domestic orders stand in their 25th range percentile
while foreign orders stand in their 17th percentile. 

In Italy investment goods stand in lower range percentiles
than do consumer goods. Italy&#8217;s revival seems to be more on the back of
the consumer that Germany&#8217;s which seems to be relatively more on the
aback of foreign demand. Since the consumer is lagging and troubled
that is something to keep a close eye on. Foreign orders to Italian
exporters have been showing signs of weakening. For that to happen as
Italian domestic demand form consumers fades is an ominous sign.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th colspan="7" scope="col">Italy ISAE
Business Sentiment</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol" colspan="5">&nbsp;</td>
<td colspan="2">Since Oct 1996</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>Oct-09</td>
<td>Sep-09</td>
<td>Aug-09</td>
<td>Jul-09</td>
<td>Percentile</td>
<td>Rank</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Biz Confidence</td>
<td>77.1</td>
<td>74.3</td>
<td>74.7</td>
<td>72.5</td>
<td>37.7</td>
<td>136</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="7" class="firstcol">TOTAL INDUSTRY</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="7" class="firstcol">&nbsp;Order books
&amp; Demand</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;Total</td>
<td>-51</td>
<td>-52</td>
<td>-51</td>
<td>-58</td>
<td>20.0</td>
<td>138</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;Domestic</td>
<td>-49</td>
<td>-49</td>
<td>-48</td>
<td>-53</td>
<td>25.9</td>
<td>139</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;Foreign</td>
<td>-55</td>
<td>-56</td>
<td>-51</td>
<td>-61</td>
<td>17.5</td>
<td>140</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Inventories</td>
<td>-2</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>37.5</td>
<td>122</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Production</td>
<td>-49</td>
<td>-47</td>
<td>-47</td>
<td>-52</td>
<td>15.5</td>
<td>141</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="7" class="firstcol">INTERMEDIATE</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="7" class="firstcol"> Order books &amp;
Demand</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;Total</td>
<td>-57</td>
<td>-55</td>
<td>-54</td>
<td>-60</td>
<td>21.6</td>
<td>140</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;Domestic</td>
<td>-57</td>
<td>-54</td>
<td>-53</td>
<td>-60</td>
<td>23.2</td>
<td>140</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;Foreign</td>
<td>-56</td>
<td>-59</td>
<td>-57</td>
<td>-63</td>
<td>24.5</td>
<td>138</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Inventories</td>
<td>-7</td>
<td>-1</td>
<td>-6</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>27.6</td>
<td>126</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Production</td>
<td>-52</td>
<td>-51</td>
<td>-55</td>
<td>-58</td>
<td>21.0</td>
<td>139</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="7" class="firstcol">INVESTMENT GOODS</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="7" class="firstcol">Order books &amp; Demand</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;Total</td>
<td>-62</td>
<td>-61</td>
<td>-63</td>
<td>-69</td>
<td>10.5</td>
<td>139</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;Domestic</td>
<td>-54</td>
<td>-55</td>
<td>-56</td>
<td>-63</td>
<td>21.0</td>
<td>137</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;Foreign</td>
<td>-66</td>
<td>-61</td>
<td>-59</td>
<td>-72</td>
<td>6.3</td>
<td>142</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Inventories</td>
<td>-1</td>
<td>-1</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>8</td>
<td>43.2</td>
<td>98</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Production</td>
<td>-61</td>
<td>-58</td>
<td>-56</td>
<td>-67</td>
<td>5.9</td>
<td>143</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="7" class="firstcol">CONSUMER GOODS</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="7" class="firstcol">Order books &amp; Demand</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;Total</td>
<td>-36</td>
<td>-38</td>
<td>-37</td>
<td>-37</td>
<td>26.1</td>
<td>138</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;Domestic</td>
<td>-36</td>
<td>-39</td>
<td>-35</td>
<td>-37</td>
<td>29.0</td>
<td>139</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;Foreign</td>
<td>-41</td>
<td>-42</td>
<td>-36</td>
<td>-39</td>
<td>22.9</td>
<td>140</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Inventories</td>
<td>-1</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>-1</td>
<td>38.5</td>
<td>98</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Production</td>
<td>-37</td>
<td>-33</td>
<td>-31</td>
<td>-35</td>
<td>15.8</td>
<td>143</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="4" class="firstcol">Total number of months:</td>
<td colspan="3">148</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

Last month Italian consumers felt great and Italian businesses felt worse. In October, Italian consumers felt decidedly worse while business sentiment advanced nicely to a 13 month high. Still the overall biz indicator stands only in [...]

Italy's Business Sentiment Bounces Back Highest Reading Since Sept 2008

Tom Moeller

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091028a.jpg" width="353">
The manufacturing sector&#39;s recovery appears intact. Durable goods orders recovered an expected 1.0% last month following declines during two of the prior three months. Moreover, the three-month rate of increase held at a firm 12.6% (AR). That increase followed a 51% rate of decline through last December. Since January orders have risen 4.1%.
Transportation equipment orders rose 1.1% last month, held back by a 0.1% (-24.1% y/y) downtick in motor vehicle &amp; parts orders and a 2.1% (-51.3% y/y) decline in nondefense aircraft orders. Excluding the volatile transportation equipment sector orders show clear improvement. With a 0.9% rise last month, orders have risen 3.3% from their January low and have increased at a 5.9% rate during the last three months.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091028b.jpg" width="353">
Higher orders for primary metals have led the improvement in durables bookings. The 0.3% increase last month followed strong gains during the prior three months and the three-month rate of increase rose to 24.5%. Orders for fabricated metals also have been quite strong. Following this strength is the electrical equipment sector. Though orders fell during the last two months, the three-month rate of increase held at a firm 6.5%. Also showing improvement has been orders for computers &amp; related equipment. The weak 0.4% rise last month failed to make up large declines during the prior two months, but since their April low, orders have risen 9.6%.
The capital goods sector also has improved. New orders for nondefense capital goods rose 2.5% and they rose 2.0% excluding aircraft &amp; parts. These latest increases build on strength developed this summer and orders have risen 8.1% from the April low.
Shipments of durable goods are now reflecting the improvement in orders. With a 0.8% rise last month, the three-month rate of increase improved to 6.6% and shipments are now 2.4% higher than the May low. The improvement has been paced by gains in shipments of metals but the machinery and electrical equipment sectors continue to lag.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091028c.jpg" width="353">
Inventories of durable manufactured goods continued lower and posted a 1.0% decline which was the ninth consecutive monthly drop totaling 11.2%. The shedding of inventory has been broad-based led by a 21.0% decline this year in the metals area, a 20.5% drop in computer inventories, a 16.2% drop in motor vehicles and an 11.9% in electrical equipment.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver&#39;s USECON database.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED01/@ED0101/@ED0101.HTM" style="COLOR: #000000">NAICS Classification </a>(%)</th>
<th scope="col">September</th>
<th scope="col">August</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Durable Goods Orders</td>
<td>1.0</td>
<td>-2.6</td>
<td>4.8</td>
<td>-19.6</td>
<td>-5.8</td>
<td>1.4</td>
<td>6.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Excluding Transportation</td>
<td>0.9</td>
<td>-0.4</td>
<td>0.9</td>
<td>-16.9</td>
<td>-1.2</td>
<td>-0.3</td>
<td>9.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Nondefense Capital Goods</td>
<td>2.5</td>
<td>-7.7</td>
<td>7.0</td>
<td>-21.0</td>
<td>-6.8</td>
<td>3.5</td>
<td>9.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Excluding Aircraft</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td>-0.8</td>
<td>-1.3</td>
<td>-16.6</td>
<td>-0.3</td>
<td>-2.7</td>
<td>10.7</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The manufacturing sector's recovery appears intact. Durable goods orders recovered an expected 1.0% last month following declines during two of the prior three months. Moreover, the three-month rate of increase held at a firm 12.6% [...]

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rise, Continuing Firm Uptrend

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091028a.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The manufacturing sector's recovery appears intact. Durable
goods orders recovered an expected 1.0% last month following declines
during two of the prior three months. Moreover, the three-month rate of
increase held at a firm 12.6% (AR). That increase followed a 51% rate
of decline through last December. Since January orders have risen 4.1%.
Transportation equipment orders rose 1.1% last month, held
back by a 0.1% (-24.1% y/y) downtick in motor vehicle &amp; parts
orders and a 2.1% (-51.3% y/y) decline in nondefense aircraft orders.
Excluding the volatile transportation equipment sector orders show
clear improvement. With a 0.9% rise last month, orders have risen 3.3%
from their January low and have increased at a 5.9% rate during the
last three months.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091028b.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Higher orders for primary metals have led the improvement in
durables bookings. The 0.3% increase last month followed strong gains
during the prior three months and the three-month rate of increase rose
to 24.5%. Orders for fabricated metals also have been quite strong.
Following this strength is the electrical equipment sector. Though
orders fell during the last two months, the three-month rate of
increase held at a firm 6.5%. Also showing improvement has been orders
for computers &amp; related equipment. The weak 0.4% rise last
month failed to make up large declines during the prior two months, but
since their April low, orders have risen 9.6%.
The capital goods sector also has improved. New orders for
nondefense capital goods rose 2.5% and they rose 2.0% excluding
aircraft &amp; parts. These latest increases build on strength
developed this summer and orders have risen 8.1% from the April low.
Shipments of durable goods are now reflecting the improvement
in orders. With a 0.8% rise last month, the three-month rate of
increase improved to 6.6% and shipments are now 2.4% higher than the
May low. The improvement has been paced by gains in shipments of metals
but the machinery and electrical equipment sectors continue to lag.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091028c.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Inventories of durable manufactured goods continued lower and
posted a 1.0% decline which was the ninth consecutive monthly drop
totaling 11.2%. The shedding of inventory has been broad-based led by a
21.0% decline this year in the metals area, a 20.5% drop in computer
inventories, a 16.2% drop in motor vehicles and an 11.9% in electrical
equipment.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON
database.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED01/@ED0101/@ED0101.HTM" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">NAICS Classification
</a>(%)</th>
<th scope="col">September</th>
<th scope="col">August</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Durable Goods Orders</td>
<td>1.0</td>
<td>-2.6</td>
<td>4.8</td>
<td>-19.6</td>
<td>-5.8</td>
<td>1.4</td>
<td>6.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Excluding Transportation</td>
<td>0.9</td>
<td>-0.4</td>
<td>0.9</td>
<td>-16.9</td>
<td>-1.2</td>
<td>-0.3</td>
<td>9.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Nondefense Capital Goods</td>
<td>2.5</td>
<td>-7.7</td>
<td>7.0</td>
<td>-21.0</td>
<td>-6.8</td>
<td>3.5</td>
<td>9.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Excluding Aircraft</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td>-0.8</td>
<td>-1.3</td>
<td>-16.6</td>
<td>-0.3</td>
<td>-2.7</td>
<td>10.7</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Italy's Business Sentiment Bounces
Back Highest
Reading Since Sept 2008 
by <a href="/comment/Brusca.html">Robert
Brusca</a> October 28, 2009


<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091028d.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Last month Italian consumers felt great and Italian businesses
felt worse. In October, Italian consumers felt decidedly worse while
business sentiment advanced nicely to a 13 month high. 

Still the overall biz indicator stands only in the 37th
percentile of its long term range that is well below the mid point and
not near enough to a normal, let alone recovery, reading yet. Orders
score a -51 raw reading a figure that stand in the bottom 20th
percentile of its range. Domestic orders are relatively better off than
foreign orders as domestic orders stand in their 25th range percentile
while foreign orders stand in their 17th percentile. 

In Italy investment goods stand in lower range percentiles
than do consumer goods. Italy&#8217;s revival seems to be more on the back of
the consumer that Germany&#8217;s which seems to be relatively more on the
aback of foreign demand. Since the consumer is lagging and troubled
that is something to keep a close eye on. Foreign orders to Italian
exporters have been showing signs of weakening. For that to happen as
Italian domestic demand form consumers fades is an ominous sign.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th colspan="7" scope="col">Italy ISAE
Business Sentiment</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol" colspan="5">&nbsp;</td>
<td colspan="2">Since Oct 1996</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>Oct-09</td>
<td>Sep-09</td>
<td>Aug-09</td>
<td>Jul-09</td>
<td>Percentile</td>
<td>Rank</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Biz Confidence</td>
<td>77.1</td>
<td>74.3</td>
<td>74.7</td>
<td>72.5</td>
<td>37.7</td>
<td>136</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="7" class="firstcol">TOTAL
INDUSTRY</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="7" class="firstcol">&nbsp;Order
books
&amp; Demand</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;Total</td>
<td>-51</td>
<td>-52</td>
<td>-51</td>
<td>-58</td>
<td>20.0</td>
<td>138</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;Domestic</td>
<td>-49</td>
<td>-49</td>
<td>-48</td>
<td>-53</td>
<td>25.9</td>
<td>139</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;Foreign</td>
<td>-55</td>
<td>-56</td>
<td>-51</td>
<td>-61</td>
<td>17.5</td>
<td>140</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Inventories</td>
<td>-2</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>37.5</td>
<td>122</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Production</td>
<td>-49</td>
<td>-47</td>
<td>-47</td>
<td>-52</td>
<td>15.5</td>
<td>141</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="7" class="firstcol">INTERMEDIATE</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="7" class="firstcol">
Order books &amp;
Demand</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;Total</td>
<td>-57</td>
<td>-55</td>
<td>-54</td>
<td>-60</td>
<td>21.6</td>
<td>140</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;Domestic</td>
<td>-57</td>
<td>-54</td>
<td>-53</td>
<td>-60</td>
<td>23.2</td>
<td>140</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;Foreign</td>
<td>-56</td>
<td>-59</td>
<td>-57</td>
<td>-63</td>
<td>24.5</td>
<td>138</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Inventories</td>
<td>-7</td>
<td>-1</td>
<td>-6</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>27.6</td>
<td>126</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Production</td>
<td>-52</td>
<td>-51</td>
<td>-55</td>
<td>-58</td>
<td>21.0</td>
<td>139</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="7" class="firstcol">INVESTMENT
GOODS</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="7" class="firstcol">Order
books &amp; Demand</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;Total</td>
<td>-62</td>
<td>-61</td>
<td>-63</td>
<td>-69</td>
<td>10.5</td>
<td>139</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;Domestic</td>
<td>-54</td>
<td>-55</td>
<td>-56</td>
<td>-63</td>
<td>21.0</td>
<td>137</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;Foreign</td>
<td>-66</td>
<td>-61</td>
<td>-59</td>
<td>-72</td>
<td>6.3</td>
<td>142</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Inventories</td>
<td>-1</td>
<td>-1</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>8</td>
<td>43.2</td>
<td>98</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Production</td>
<td>-61</td>
<td>-58</td>
<td>-56</td>
<td>-67</td>
<td>5.9</td>
<td>143</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="7" class="firstcol">CONSUMER
GOODS</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="7" class="firstcol">Order
books &amp; Demand</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;Total</td>
<td>-36</td>
<td>-38</td>
<td>-37</td>
<td>-37</td>
<td>26.1</td>
<td>138</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;Domestic</td>
<td>-36</td>
<td>-39</td>
<td>-35</td>
<td>-37</td>
<td>29.0</td>
<td>139</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;Foreign</td>
<td>-41</td>
<td>-42</td>
<td>-36</td>
<td>-39</td>
<td>22.9</td>
<td>140</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Inventories</td>
<td>-1</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>-1</td>
<td>38.5</td>
<td>98</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Production</td>
<td>-37</td>
<td>-33</td>
<td>-31</td>
<td>-35</td>
<td>15.8</td>
<td>143</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="4" class="firstcol">Total
number of months:</td>
<td colspan="3">148</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. New Home Sales Decline Though
Prices Increase 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom
Moeller</a> October 28, 2009


<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091028e.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The recovery in the housing market stuttered last month. Sales
of new single-family homes fell during September following five
consecutive months of increase. The seasonally adjusted annual sales
rate of 402,000 followed a downwardly revised August level of 417,000
and it fell well short of Consensus expectations for a rise to 440,000
sales. Nevertheless, sales have risen by nearly one-quarter from the
January low.
Home prices firmed last month, but the recovery this year has
been tepid. The median price of a new single-family home rose to
$204,800 from an upwardly revised August level. Nevertheless the latest
figure, which was down 9.1% y/y, remained near the lowest level since
October of 2003. The average price of a new home was less weak and off
1.6% y/y.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091028f.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Price discounts, higher sales and much lower housing starts
have combined to lower the overhang of unsold homes. A September
decline dropped them by more than one-third versus last year to the
lowest level since 1982 (no typo). In the West the number of homes for
sale fell by nearly one-half to a record low while inventories
elsewhere in the country fell by roughly one-third.
The months' supply of unsold homes held steady last month at
7.5 months and was down from the high of 12.4 months in January. The
figure was the lowest since January 2007.
The Global Financial Crisis and Offshore Dollar
Markets from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be
found here <a href="http://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2009/rp091027.html">
here </a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">US
New Homes</th>
<th scope="col">September</th>
<th scope="col">August</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Sales
(SAAR, 000s)</td>
<td>402</td>
<td>417</td>
<td>413</td>
<td>-7.8%</td>
<td>481</td>
<td>769</td>
<td>1,049</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Northeast</td>
<td>42</td>
<td>42</td>
<td>41</td>
<td>&nbsp;68.0</td>
<td>35</td>
<td>64</td>
<td>64</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Midwest</td>
<td>71</td>
<td>53</td>
<td>56</td>
<td>12.7</td>
<td>69</td>
<td>118</td>
<td>161</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; South</td>
<td>188</td>
<td>209</td>
<td>215</td>
<td>-11.1</td>
<td>264</td>
<td>408</td>
<td>559</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; West</td>
<td>101</td>
<td>113</td>
<td>101</td>
<td>-1.0</td>
<td>113</td>
<td>178</td>
<td>266</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Median Price
(NSA, $)</td>
<td>204,800</td>
<td>199,900</td>
<td>215,600</td>
<td>&nbsp;-9.1</td>
<td>230,408</td>
<td>243,742</td>
<td>243,067</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rise,Continuing Firm Uptrend

Louise Curley

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 




<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091027i.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Entrepreneurs in France and the Netherlands continue to shed
some of their pessimism concerning economic prospects, but they are by
no means optimistic. From the low point in February, 2009, when
pessimists in the Netherlands outweighed the optimists by 22.9%,
pessimists still outweigh the optimists by 7.8%. In France, the
indicator of business confidence is so created that its long term
average is 100 with a standard deviation of 10. The low point at 68 in
March 2009 was more than three standard deviations below the long term
average. While the indicator has moved up to 86 in October, it is still
more than one standard deviation below average. The first chart shows
the measures of business confidence in the Netherlands and in France.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091027j.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Consumers in France and in Italy had become disenchanted
earlier than the business community. Confidence among consumers in both
countries reached lows in July, 2008. Since then confidence among
Italian consumers has improved sharply, if erratically. October was
another decline in the upward but erratic path of Italian consumer
confidence. The index fell to 111.7 (1980=100) from 113.6 in September.
It is, however, almost 17% above the low point. The increase in
confidence from the low point among French households has been less
dramatic than that in Italy, as can be seen in the second chart. The
excess of pessimists over optimists has declined from 47% to 35% in
October, an improvement of 12 basis points. In spite of the rise in
confidence, pessimism among consumers in France and Italy still
outweighs optimism concerning the economic outlook.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Oct 09</th>
<th scope="col">Sep 09</th>
<th scope="col">Aug&nbsp; 09</th>
<th scope="col">Jul 08</th>
<th scope="col">Low&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Date&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2008&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="10">Business Confidence</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Netherlands (% Balance)</td>
<td>-7.8</td>
<td>-9.8</td>
<td>-9.3</td>
<td>-14.8</td>
<td>-22.9</td>
<td>2/09</td>
<td>0.4</td>
<td>7.8</td>
<td>6.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">France(Synthetic Index: Avg
=100, St Dev =10)</td>
<td>86</td>
<td>83</td>
<td>79</td>
<td>76</td>
<td>68</td>
<td>3/09</td>
<td>96</td>
<td>110</td>
<td>107</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="10">Consumer Confidence</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Italy (1980=100)</td>
<td>111.7</td>
<td>113.6</td>
<td>111.8</td>
<td>107.5</td>
<td>95.8</td>
<td>7/08</td>
<td>100.6</td>
<td>108.5</td>
<td>108.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">France (% Balance)</td>
<td>-35</td>
<td>-36</td>
<td>-37</td>
<td>-38</td>
<td>-47</td>
<td>7.08</td>
<td>-42</td>
<td>-21</td>
<td>-25</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

Entrepreneurs in France and the Netherlands continue to shed some of their pessimism concerning economic prospects, but they are by no means optimistic. From the low point in February, 2009, when pessimists in the Netherlands [...]

Signs of Improvement in European Business and Consumer Confidence But No Euphoria

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091027g.jpg" width="353">
Gasoline prices rose to nearly their highest level in one year. The pump price for regular gasoline increased last week to $2.67 per gallon which was roughly the highest level since October of last year. Moreover, prices remain up from the December low of $1.61. This week prices rose even further and the wholesale gasoline price moved to $2.07 from an average $2.05 last week. The figures are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy and can be found in Haver&#39;s WEEKLY &amp; DAILY databases.
Higher crude oil prices are behind the rise in gas prices and light sweet crude (WTI) rose to an average $80.35 per barrel last week, up from the December low of $32.37. Yesterday, the spot market price for light sweet crude oil leveled off and slipped to $78.68 per barrel.
Behind the increase in energy prices is an increase in the demand for gasoline. Last week, it posted a 3.4% rise versus one year ago. The gain was nearly the strongest since the fall of 2006. Demand for residual fuel oil also increased 22.8% y/y while distillate demand halved its recent decline to 11.5% y/y. <img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091027h.jpg" width="353">
Finally, an earlier abundance of gasoline has eased somewhat. Gasoline inventories were up 5.3% y/y last week which was one-quarter of the gain last month. The gain in crude oil inventories also halved to 8.9% y/y and inventories of residual fuel oil are down 8.5% versus last year.
Natural gas prices also strengthened last week, ahead of the winter heating season, to an average of $4.70 per mmbtu (-30.2% y/y). Though they remained down by two-thirds from the high reached in early-July of last year of $13.19/mmbtu, they are more than double the low reached early last month. Yesterday prices increased further to $4.55/mmbtu.
What is Driving Energy Prices from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is available <a href="http://www.dallasfed.org/sanantonio/news/events/2009/0906yucel.pdf">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W4/@W4.HTM">Weekly Prices</a></th>
<th scope="col">10/26/09</th>
<th scope="col">10/19/09</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Retail Regular Gasoline ($ per Gallon, Regular)</td>
<td>2.67</td>
<td>2.57</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>3.25</td>
<td>2.80</td>
<td>2.57</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI&nbsp; ($ per bbl.)</td>
<td>80.35</td>
<td>75.74</td>
<td>17.8%</td>
<td>100.16</td>
<td>72.25</td>
<td>66.12</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Gasoline prices rose to nearly their highest level in one year. The pump price for regular gasoline increased last week to $2.67 per gallon which was roughly the highest level since October of last year. Moreover, prices remain up [...]

Weekly Gasoline Prices Climb Toward 12-Month High

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091027e.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Earlier gains in consumer confidence have flagged with the
continued run-up in unemployment. The Conference Board indicated that
consumer confidence during October fell 10.7% from September. The
decline was the fourth in the last five months though confidence
remained nearly double this Winter's low. The Conference Board data can
be found in Haver's CBDB database.
During the last ten years there has been an 86% correlation
between the level of consumer confidence and the y/y change in real
consumer spending.
Consumers' assessment of the current economic conditions fell
again this month and remained near the historic low. It remained off by
almost two-thirds from one year earlier. Jobs were seen as hard to get
by an increased 49.6% of respondents and jobs were seen as plentiful by
3.4% which was near the series' historic low. Business conditions were
seen as good by just 7.7% and that also was near the series' low.
Consumers who thought business conditions were bad rose slightly to
47.1%. While off somewhat from its high the reading still near the
highest since 1983.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091027f.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The expectations component of confidence fell hard from
September but the index remained near the highest level since
late-2007. The percentage of respondents expecting business conditions
to improve slipped to 20.8% though that remained near the highest level
since 2004. Though down slightly m/m, an improved 16.3% of respondents
expected economic improvement to generate more jobs, more than double
the percentage at the recent low. However, that gain was not expected
to generate much more income.
Expectations for the inflation rate in twelve months held
stable at 5.3%, the lowest level since 2007 and down from last year's
high of 7.7%. Interest rates in twelve months were expected to be
higher by 49.5% of respondents, while 15.8% expected rates to fall. A
greatly increased 32.7% of respondents expected stock prices to rise.
Consumers continued to manage their spending plans cautiously.
Just 2.3% plan to buy a home during the next six months while just
23.3% plan to buy a major appliance. That's versus 30.9% back in 2007.
Only 4.4% plan to buy an automobile versus 6.0% in 2007. Just 1.4% plan
to buy a new one.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Conference
Board &nbsp;(SA, 1985=100)</th>
<th scope="col">October</th>
<th scope="col">September</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y %</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Consumer
Confidence Index</td>
<td>47.7</td>
<td>53.4</td>
<td>22.9</td>
<td>57.9</td>
<td>103.4</td>
<td>105.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;
Present Situation</td>
<td>20.7</td>
<td>23.0</td>
<td>-52.4</td>
<td>69.9</td>
<td>128.8</td>
<td>130.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;
Expectations</td>
<td>65.7</td>
<td>73.7</td>
<td>84.0</td>
<td>50.0</td>
<td>86.4</td>
<td>89.7</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

Earlier gains in consumer confidence have flagged with the continued run-up in unemployment. The Conference Board indicated that consumer confidence during October fell 10.7% from September. The decline was the fourth in the last five [...]

U.S. Consumer Confidence Drops Again

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091027d.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Over view: Money supply growth in the key economies continues
to erode on a broad front. Japan sports a contrary pattern with
steadily increasing growth in money supply. The UK has been through the
biggest boom/bust in money supply growth; the economy is still
languishing in recession. Money growth in the US and in the e-Zone is
slowing as well. 

Credit growth in EMU has turned negative. Loan growth is
declining even over 12-months. In real terms, credit to residents is
also falling. Over three-months inflation-adjusted loan volume in the
Zone is falling; over six months it&#8217;s flat. 

Real money supplies are declining over six months in the US
and in the UK. In EMU real money balances are growing at a low 2% pace.
Japan&#8217;s inflation-adjusted money supply is accelerating or stabilizing.
 

While it is clear that different regions have different
nominal and real money growth characteristics, only Japan is showing a
steady move back to monetary stimulus. At that it still has the lowest
Yr/Yr nominal money growth in the group. The UK has the biggest drop
off in nominal money growth but still had the strongest Yr/Yr rate of
growth. The US and EMU growth rates are closer together with EMU the
peak coming earlier than in the US. 

The more disturbing news is the lack of credit growth. In EMU
it is contracting. Banks have been stabilized by various policy
actions, but those actions did not translate directly into help for the
nonbank sector as banks have been very careful with new lending. In the
US the President is now trying to jawbone to stimulate small business
lending. Without credit growth, money growth will not be fully
activated. In the US small business is the main source of job growth
which is greatly needed to produce a real recovery. In Germany
Chancellor Merkel is warning of another crisis in 2011 and more
unemployment. There remains a lot of work to be done to get areal
recovery going.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th colspan="8" scope="col"> Look at
Global and Euro Liquidity Trends</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Saar-all</td>
<td colspan="3"> Euro Measures (E13): Money
&amp; Credit</td>
<td colspan="3"> G-10 Major Markets: Money</td>
<td>Memo</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td> &#8364;&#8364;-Supply M2</td>
<td> Credit: 
Residential</td>
<td> Loans</td>
<td> $US M2</td>
<td>&#163;&#163;UK M4</td>
<td> &#165; &#165;Jpn M2+Cds</td>
<td> OIL:WTI</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">3-MO</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td> -1.6%</td>
<td> -1.9%</td>
<td>8.7%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td> -0.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"> 6-MO</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td> -0.9%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>112.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">12-MO</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td> -0.3%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
<td>9.8%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td> -32.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">2Yr</td>
<td>7.0%</td>
<td>6.3%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>6.5%</td>
<td>10.9%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td> -6.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">3Yr</td>
<td>8.1%</td>
<td>7.9%</td>
<td>6.3%</td>
<td>6.5%</td>
<td>11.6%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="8" class="firstcol">
Real Balances: deflated by
Own CPI. Oil deflated by US CPI</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"> 3-MO</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td> -0.4%</td>
<td> -2.3%</td>
<td> -4.3%</td>
<td>5.3%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td> -2.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">6-MO</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td> 0.0%</td>
<td> -1.7%</td>
<td> -2.6%</td>
<td> -1.0%</td>
<td>5.2%</td>
<td>106.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">12-MO</td>
<td>4.5%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>8.1%</td>
<td>8.6%</td>
<td>5.2%</td>
<td> -31.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">2Yr</td>
<td>5.3%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>4.7%</td>
<td>7.5%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>-7.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">3Yr</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>8.7%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="8" class="firstcol">Japan CPI
for Aug is an estimate; it
uses the July value to produce the real balance figure</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

Over view: Money supply growth in the key economies continues to erode on a broad front. Japan sports a contrary pattern with steadily increasing growth in money supply. The UK has been through the biggest boom/bust in money supply [...]

Money Supplies Continue to Erode

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091027a.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Home prices have firmed along with the improvement seen in
home sales. The August S&amp;P/Case-Shiller
Home Price Composite Index of twenty metro-markets rose 1.0% from July
following like gains during the prior two months. The monthly increase
lowered the y/y drop to 11.4% which was
less-than-expected by Consensus. Nevertheless, prices were down by
nearly one-third since the peak in May 2006. Not seasonally adjusted
prices were even stronger m/m and posted a 1.2% increase after a 1.6%
gain during July.
The Case-Shiller composite index of home prices in 10
metropolitan areas, which has a longer history and dates back to 1987,
also firmed last month by 1.0% (-10.7% y/y). This measure also was down
by nearly one-third since the 2006 peak.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091027b.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The Case-Shiller index of 20 U.S. cities and their surrounding
areas is value-weighted. A greater index weight is assigned to more
expensive homes and the series dates back only to 2001. The
S&amp;P/Case-Shiller home price series can be found in Haver's USECON
database and the city data highlighted below is in the REGIONAL
database. The latest press release is available <a href="http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/CSHomePrice_Release_102706.pdf">here</a>
. An overview of the S&amp;P/Case-Shiller home price series can be
found <a href="http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.topic/indices_csmahp/0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,1,0,0,0,0,0.html">here</a>.
Less Weak Regions:Home prices in some areas
of the country have firmed lately though they remain down year-to-year.
Prices in Denver rose for their sixth month (-2.0% y/y) while
in Dallas prices rose for the fifth consecutive month. That pared the
y/y change to -1.3% from its worst of -5.5% this past March. Boston
prices also were higher during August (-4.2% y/y) while in Chicago home
prices were quite strong m/m, rising 1.2%, but they still were off
12.7% y/y. In the New York region prices ticked up 0.3% m/m (-9.6% y/y)
while in Charlotte, North Carolina prices slipped 0.4% (-8.6% y/y). In
Cleveland, Ohio, though prices fell 1.0% m/m during August, the y/y
decline amounted to just 2.9%. In the Washington, D.C. metro area
prices rose for the fourth straight month. The 1.2% increase left them
off 7.9% y/y.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/091027c.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Weakest Regions: Several other areas of the
country have shown limited improvement. Though home prices in Phoenix,
Arizona rose for the third consecutive month they remained off 25.2%
y/y. Home prices in Las Vegas, Nevada continued their rapid rate of
decline with a 0.8% m/m drop (-29.9% y/y) and were down by roughly
one-half from their peak. Home prices in Miami also rose for the third
straight month but were off 18.9% y/y while home prices in Los Angeles
also firmed m/m (-12.0% y/y). In Tampa, Florida prices also rose for
the third month but remained off 17.7% y/y. In Detroit prices rose for
the first time since early 2006 (-22.7% y/y) yet prices were off by
nearly one-half from the peak.In San Francisco prices firmed for the
fourth straight month and that eased the y/y decline to 12.6%.
The monthly S&amp;P Case Shiller Home Price data can be
found in Haver's USECON database and the regional
data is available in the REGIONAL database.
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">S&amp;P/Case-Shiller
Home Price Index (SA, Jan 00 = 100)</th>
<th scope="col">August m/m</th>
<th scope="col">July m/m</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">20 City Composite
Index</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>-11.4%</td>
<td>-15.8%</td>
<td>-3.8%</td>
<td>7.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="7" class="firstcol">&nbsp; Regional
Indicators</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Atlanta</td>
<td>0.5</td>
<td>1.6</td>
<td>-10.6</td>
<td>-8.5</td>
<td>0.7</td>
<td>4.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Boston</td>
<td>1.0</td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>-4.2</td>
<td>-5.7</td>
<td>-4.0</td>
<td>-1.8</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Chicago</td>
<td>1.2</td>
<td>2.1</td>
<td>-12.7</td>
<td>-10.0</td>
<td>-1.0</td>
<td>6.6</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Dallas</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>0.8</td>
<td>-1.3</td>
<td>-3.3</td>
<td>0.5</td>
<td>3.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Denver</td>
<td>1.0</td>
<td>0.7</td>
<td>-2.0</td>
<td>-4.9</td>
<td>-1.7</td>
<td>2.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Los Angeles</td>
<td>1.3</td>
<td>1.2</td>
<td>-12.0</td>
<td>-24.2</td>
<td>-5.2</td>
<td>11.6</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
New York</td>
<td>0.3</td>
<td>0.9</td>
<td>-9.6</td>
<td>-7.4</td>
<td>-2.8</td>
<td>7.5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
San Francisco</td>
<td>2.6</td>
<td>2.8</td>
<td>-12.6</td>
<td>-24.3</td>
<td>-4.5</td>
<td>4.5</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

</body></html>

Home prices have firmed along with the improvement seen in home sales. The August S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Composite Index of twenty metro-markets rose 1.0% from July following like gains during the prior two months. The monthly [...]

Case-Shiller Home Price Index Increases For Third Consecutive Month

US and China big leaders in adoption of AI models

Robust US demand for advanced technology products

China's export growth rotating away from the US

More pronounced upward revisions in countries more exposed to AI investment

Stable job openings and hiring rates point to cautious hiring

Global freight costs are on the rise while supply chain pressures are contained

Accelerating positive economic surprises in the G10 are boosting the global economy

Considerably more monetary ease expected from US and UK as Japan tightens

Tighter US immigration enforcement adversely impacting labor force

Economic policy uncertainty, while still elevated, is declining

Gradual disinflation and easier monetary policies across advanced economies

Largest October layoffs since 2003, led by technology

Subdued global shipping costs not yet pointing to supply chain problems

PMIs show still-elevated but slowing US inflation

AI boosting US investment in data centers

US productivity growth has been significantly faster than in other major economies

Consumers' short-term US inflation expectations still elevated while longer-term expectations of financial markets are steady

US financial markets have gotten used to elevated policy uncertainty

FOMC now expects more rate cuts going forward than in June

China gaining ASEAN exports while US exports slump

Job openings less than the number unemployed in July for first time since 2021

Reaccelerating goods price inflation along with sticky services inflation clouds the outlook

Falling oil prices aren't pulling down inflation expectations, pointing to a boost from increased tariffs

Equity market exuberance outpacing macroeconomic data

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters expect further sizable monetary easing

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

Service Health

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

London

Singapore

Tokyo

New York

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Featured Data Additions

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

Andrew Cates

**The Global Monetary Policy Consensus**
The latest Blue Chip Financial Forecasts survey points to a notably more balanced global monetary policy outlook over the coming year. In contrast to the pronounced easing bias that dominated much of the past two years, expectations are now more symmetric, with a similar number of central banks projected to raise rates as to ease policy. Japan is seen delivering further tightening, while Canada is expected to initiate an interest rate hike in coming months. In Australia’s case, this tightening guidance was reinforced this week, with the Reserve Bank lifting its policy rate by 25 basis points. Elsewhere, and in contrast, the euro area, UK and US are expected to move in the opposite direction.

260205Z1.jpg

**US manufacturing activity**
The second chart underscores the recent improvement in US economic momentum, highlighted by an unexpected surge in the January ISM manufacturing PMI. After spending much of the past year hovering below the 50 threshold consistent with stagnation, the index jumped sharply back into expansionary territory, signalling a renewed pickup in industrial activity. This rebound has coincided with a broader run of stronger-than-anticipated US economic data, as reflected in the upswing in the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index. Together, these developments point to a US economy that continues to display notable resilience, complicating expectations of monetary easing in the near term.

260205Z2.jpg

**US Bank Lending Standards and Financial Stress** 
The next chart turns to US financial conditions, highlighting the latest readings from the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey. The net proportion of banks tightening lending standards on corporate loans and mortgages is now more modest by historical standards, and well below the extremes seen during past episodes of financial stress. Some easing in credit headwinds has occurred alongside relatively subdued readings on the OFR Financial Stress Index, which continues to hover below its long-run average. Together, these indicators suggest that the US financial system has continued to avoid the kind of acute stress typically associated with sharp slowdowns in credit availability—helping to underpin the recent resilience in economic activity.

260205Z3.jpg

**Semiconductor Sales**
The fourth chart highlights the renewed surge in global semiconductor sales, with momentum strengthening sharply over recent months across the Americas, China and the broader Asia-Pacific region. After the cyclical downturn in 2022–23, sales have rebounded to fresh highs, reflecting a powerful revival in demand for advanced chips and related technologies. This upswing has taken place amid intense investor preoccupation with artificial intelligence, with expectations that AI adoption will drive a sustained wave of capital spending on data centres, cloud infrastructure and high-performance computing. In contrast, semiconductor sales in Europe remain comparatively subdued, reflecting the region’s smaller footprint in high-end chip manufacturing, weaker industrial demand, and the ongoing impact of slower economic growth. While semiconductors are inherently cyclical, markets have increasingly interpreted the current rebound elsewhere as structural rather than purely cyclical—underpinned by the belief that AI represents a transformative and durable source of demand growth.

260205Z4.jpg

**Large-Scale AI Models**
The next chart illustrates the rapid proliferation of large-scale AI models globally, with newly updated data for 2025 pointing to a further sharp acceleration in development activity. The United States continues to lead by a wide margin, while China has also seen a steep rise in model deployment in recent years, underscoring the intensifying technological competition between the two economies. Growth in the UK and other regions has been more modest by comparison, highlighting the increasingly concentrated nature of AI innovation. Taken together with the surge in semiconductor sales, these trends help explain the market’s strong preoccupation with AI as a potential driver of future productivity and investment cycles—although the geographic concentration of activity also raises questions about the uneven distribution of any resulting economic gains.

260205Z5.jpg

**An AI Bubble?** 
The final chart draws on the latest Blue Chip Financial Forecasts special questions, highlighting market participants’ perceptions of the economic gains likely to be delivered by artificial intelligence. While a sizeable share of respondents still believe that financial markets may be overestimating AI’s potential benefits, an increasing proportion now judge current expectations to be broadly accurate, with only a small minority viewing the gains as underestimated. Notably, this represents a softening in scepticism compared with the survey results from last month, when concerns about excessive market optimism were more pronounced. The shift suggests a growing acceptance that AI-related investment and innovation could translate into meaningful economic impacts—though uncertainty remains high around the scale, timing and distribution of these gains.

260205Z6.jpg

Financial markets have experienced renewed gyrations in recent weeks, as shifting geopolitical risks, questions around Federal Reserve independence, renewed talk of US dollar “debasement,” and ongoing enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence have combined to drive volatility across asset classes. These cross-currents have also contributed to a degree of rotation away from high-flying technology stocks, as investors reassess valuations and the timing of anticipated AI-driven gains. Against this backdrop, the charts in this week’s COTW highlight several important themes. Policy rate expectations now appear more balanced globally, marking a clear shift away from the one-sided easing bias of the past two years (chart 1), even as resilient US data—underscored by the unexpected jump in the January ISM index and a run of positive economic surprises—continues to complicate the outlook for monetary easing (chart 2). At the same time, US financial conditions remain relatively benign, with limited evidence of widespread credit stress or aggressive tightening in lending standards (chart 3). Meanwhile, the sharp rebound in semiconductor sales and the accelerating rollout of large-scale AI models underscore why investors remain so focused on the AI narrative, even as Europe lags behind due to weaker industrial momentum and a smaller footprint in advanced chip production (charts 4 and 5). Finally, while some scepticism about AI’s ultimate economic impact persists, the latest survey results suggest a moderation in concerns that markets are materially overestimating its gains (chart 6). Taken together, these developments paint a picture of a US economy that remains more resilient than many had anticipated, set against a financial landscape increasingly shaped by powerful—if sometimes competing—narratives around geopolitics, policy, and technological transformation.

Charts of the Week: Balanced Policy, Resilient Data and AI Narratives

260206E.jpg

With the December report, Germany’s production and some of the early European industrial production data reveal a good deal of chaos in terms of the embedded trends. On the month, German industrial production fell by 1.9%, with consumer goods output up by 0.5%, capital goods output falling by 5.3%, and intermediate goods output falling by 1.2%. Among the early reporters in the monetary union—France, Spain, and Portugal—only Spain showed an increase in manufacturing IP in December; however, Spanish industrial production is notoriously volatile.

**Broader IP trends in Germany and elsewhere in Europe**
As for other early industrial production reporters, both Sweden and Norway showed strong-to-solid gains in December and each of them showed two-months of gains in a row. Beyond that, sequential growth rates from 12-months to six-months to three-months show accelerating growth in German consumer goods output against decelerating growth for intermediate goods. Real manufacturing output and real sales show mixed results- no clear trends; however, real manufacturing orders in Germany are off the map strong. 

**German manufacturing/industrial Surveys**
German industrial surveys from the IFO for manufacturing shows persistent weakening as well as for IFO manufacturing expectations, and in the EU Commission industrial index in the last three months. More broadly, Germany shows some modest but ongoing step up all of these based on average levels from 12-months to six-months to three-months for IFO expectations and the EU Commission industrial readings with mixed results for other survey readings.

**IP trends in Europe**
For the early reporting EMU members France, Spain, and Portugal, who report industrial production trends, each show mixed monthly trends against ongoing decelerations for manufacturing output over the broader sequential periods (12-month, to 6-month, to 3-month). However, for other Europe, Sweden and Norway, manufacturing trends are steadily accelerating on this broader timeline.

**A feeling of ‘Deja- What?’**
These combinations of opposed trends mixed with a lack of trends leave us with this sense of confusion about what's going on in manufacturing. For Germany, the extreme strength in orders is reassuring since orders should be forward-looking rather than backward-looking or even contemporaneous. But orders can also be a fickle series and so we'll have to watch it to see if the trends for German orders hold up.

**Current quarter-What’s been happening now**
In addition, current quarter growth for Germany actually looks quite good with industrial production up 3.7% at an annual rate in the current quarter, led by output increases in manufacturing against a decline in the intermediate goods output. Real orders in the quarter are surging at a 44% growth rate, while real sales in manufacturing only had a 0.1% uptick at an annual rate. The industrial indicators for Germany in the quarter show weakness or flatness with the only exception being IFO manufacturing expectations that advanced by a small amount. The three EMU members who report industrial production data show positive growth in the just-completed quarter except for Portugal where industrial production is falling at a 2.9% rate in the fourth quarter. Sweden and Norway, European countries but not monetary union members, show a strong 22% annual rate gain in Sweden against the 3% annual rate decline in Norway.

260206.jpg

**Rankings**
**How growth rates stack up…**
Moving away from short-term trends, the rankings of growth rates of these various metrics using 12-month growth rates on data back to 2006, show below-median growth rates for German industrial production and all three of its major sectors. All of them have rankings below the 50% mark where the median resides. Germany’s manufacturing output growth rate is below its median as is the growth of real sales; and once again real manufacturing orders break out and show a stunning 90th percentile standing, extremely strong compared to other growth rates on this period.

**Indicator rankings are poor**
However, the survey based industrial indicators for Germany, ranked based on their index levels, are all extremely weak and much weaker than German sector or other German metrics. The strongest indicator reading is the 29th percentile standing for IFO manufacturing expectations while the current ZEW index, IFO manufacturing index, and the EU Commission industrial readings, all reside below their 15th percentile. The survey rankings suggest that industrial sentiment is in much worse shape than activity and growth.

**IP elsewhere in Europe**
However, the growth ranking of manufacturing industrial production for the reporting EMU members and other European members are all quite solid, with percentile standings ranging from the 66th up to the 93rd percentile.

**Summing up**
From these data, Germany emerges as the weak economy compared with historic norms based on industrial production growth and indicator readings. However, there's a glimpse of positivity from the growth of real orders, and at the same time, some concern about ongoing sentiment for manufacturing in Germany as distinct from actual performance.

Germany

German IP Reveals Chaotic Trends

Winnie Tapasanun

260205X15.jpg

260205Y15.jpg

**Total job openings** fell 5.6% m/m (-12.9% y/y) to 6.542 million in December after a downwardly revised 7.0% decline to 6.928 million in November (previously -4.1% m/m; 7.146 million), according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. December marked the third consecutive m/m fall and the lowest level since September 2020. The job openings rate declined to 3.9% in December, the lowest since April 2020, from 4.2% in November, remaining below a record-high 7.4% in March 2022. This rate is calculated as the ratio of job openings to total nonfarm employment plus openings. Significantly, the drop in job openings also lowered the **ratio of job openings to unemployed individuals** to 0.872 in December—the lowest since March 2021—from 0.890 in November, down from 1.085 in December 2024 and a pre-pandemic 1.211 in February 2020. A reading of 0.872 implies there were about 0.87 open jobs per unemployed person—indicating fewer openings than unemployed workers. December was the fifth time in six months that this ratio remained below 1.0.

**Private sector job openings** fell 6.8% (-12.5% y/y) to 5.804 million in December after a 6.6% fall to 6.227 million in November, registering the third successive m/m decline and the lowest level since September 2020. The private sector job openings rate fell to 4.1% in December, the lowest since April 2020, from 4.4% in November. The December m/m decline in private sector openings reflected drops of 27.7% (-36.9% y/y) in financial activities, 20.2% (-25.5% y/y) in professional & business services, 14.4% (-5.1% y/y) in trade, transportation & utilities, and 5.2% (-12.4% y/y) in private educational & health services. To the upside, private sector openings in the following categories rose m/m in December: other services (21.1%; 11.0% y/y), mining & lodging (17.6%; 0.0% y/y), information (13.5%; -4.7% y/y), manufacturing (8.5%; 0.5% y/y), leisure & hospitality (7.5%; -17.2% y/y), and construction (2.8%; 42.4% y/y). Meanwhile, government job openings rose 5.3% (-15.6% y/y) in December, the first m/m rise in three months, after a 10.6% drop in November.

**Total hiring** rebounded 3.4% (-1.5% y/y) to 5.293 million in December, the first m/m increase since September, following a 4.6% decrease to 5.121 million in November. The hiring rate edged up to 3.3% in December from 3.2% in November, though it remained below pre-pandemic levels. **Private sector hiring** rose 3.1% (-0.4% y/y) to 4.978 million in December, the third m/m rise in four months, after a 4.0% decline to 4.826 million in November. The private sector hiring rate rose to 3.7% in December from 3.5% in November, the same as in October and September. The December m/m increase in private sector hiring was led by a 32.1% jump (42.3% y/y) in information, followed by gains of 24.0% (-4.6% y/y) in financial activities, 23.5% (0.0% y/y) in mining & lodging, 6.5% (-4.8% y/y) in private educational & health services, 4.2% (-4.9% y/y) in trade, transportation & utilities, 3.6% (6.1% y/y) in construction, 3.4% (7.9% y/y) in leisure & hospitality, and 1.8% (-4.3% y/y) in manufacturing. To the downside, private sector hiring in professional & business services (-5.2%; +0.5% y/y) and other services (-4.3%; -16.5% y/y) declined m/m in December. Meanwhile, government hiring rebounded 6.4% (-16.3% y/y) in December, the first m/m rise since September, following a 13.5% drop in November.

**Total separations** rose 2.1% (3.3% y/y) to 5.251 million in December after a 1.5% rise to 5.144 million in November, marking the third m/m increase in four months and the highest level since September. The total separations rate edged up to 3.3% after holding at 3.2% in November and October. Private sector separations rose 1.6% (4.2% y/y) to 4.932 million in December, the highest level since June, while government sector separations jumped 10.4% (-9.1% y/y) to 319,000 following two consecutive m/m declines. **Total quits** (voluntary separations initiated by the employee) increased 0.3% (3.5% y/y) to 3.204 million in December, the third m/m rise in four months and the highest level since June, after a 7.4% rebound in November. The quits rate (a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs) held at 2.0% in December and November, slightly below 2.3% in February 2020. Private sector quits eased 0.2% (+4.5% y/y) following an 8.4% November rebound. **Layoffs and discharges** (involuntary separations initiated by the employer) increased 3.6% (5.6% y/y) to 1.762 million in December, up for the third time in four months, after an 8.1% drop in November. The layoffs & discharges rate remained at 1.1% in December and November, marginally below 1.3% in February 2020. Private sector layoffs grew 4.3% (7.8% y/y) following a 7.3% November decrease.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database.

260205C15.jpg

260205D15.jpg

- Job openings down 5.6% (-12.9% y/y) to 6.542 mil., third straight m/m decline.
- Hiring up 3.4% (-1.5% y/y) to 5.293 mil., first m/m increase since September.
- Separations rise to a three-month high; quits reach a six-month high; layoffs rebound.

U.S. JOLTS: Openings Drop to Lowest Level Since Sept. ’20; Hiring Rebounds in December

Sandy Batten

260205A2.jpg

260205B2.jpg

Initial claims for unemployment insurance jumped 22,000 to 231,000 in the week ended January 31 following an unrevised 209,000 in the prior week. The four-week average rose to 212,250 from 206,250. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for 213,000 claims to have been filed. Winter Storm Fern and the accompanying very cold temperatures could have provided a temporary boost. Historically speaking, claims remain at low levels.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries—also known as “continuing claims”—increased by 25,000 to 1.844 million in the week ending January 24, from a downwardly revised 1.819 million in the prior week (previously 1.827 million). The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2% in the week of January 24, unchanged from the previous eight weeks.

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending January 17, the highest unemployment rates were in Rhode Island (2.83%), New Jersey (2.77%), Massachusetts (2.67%), Washington (2.54%), and Minnesota (2.45%). The lowest rates were in Florida (0.30%), North Carolina (0.42%), Louisiana (0.43%), Alabama (0.46%), and Arkansas (0.47). Rates in other notable states include Illinois (2.15%), California, (2.08%), New York (2.02%), Pennsylvania (1.91%), and Texas (1.09%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.

260205C2.jpg

260205D2.jpg

- New claims jumped 22,000 to 231,000, the highest level since December 6.
- Continuing claims rose to 1.844 million from 1.819 million.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Surged in Latest Week

260205E.jpg

German real orders in December adjusted for inflation rose strongly again, gaining 7.8% month-to-month after rising 5.7% month-to-month in November. Foreign orders were up by 5.6% in December compared to 5.2% in November. Domestic orders surged by 10.7% in December after rising 6.4% in November and 10% in October.

**Real sales**
Real sales were mixed in December with overall sales falling 1.4% month-to-month mostly on weakness in capital goods sales.

**Broad categorical acceleration**
Many flows are accelerating this month. Sequential growth rates show acceleration. Total real orders accelerate from a year ago, to the current year, to six-months, and to three-months. Sales growth rates for consumer goods, consumer nondurables, and intermediate goods all show accelerations in gear. The exceptions are foreign orders that are not as strong over six months compared to their 12-month growth. And on the sales side, consumer durables sales and capital goods sales are weak.

**Quarter-to-quarter**
Quarterly annualized growth is complete for Q4 with this report. Foreign orders are the ‘weak flow’ expanding at a 13.6% annual rate – certainly not a weak growth rate. But domestic real orders are up at an astounding 101.9% annual rate. The net impact on the total real orders growth is to lift it to a pace of 44.1%. 

**Order ranking is very strong**
The table provides two rankings: one based on the level of variables and the other based on its year-on-year growth. The rankings this month for real orders overall, foreign, and domestic orders all reside in their top 80th to 90th percentiles- extremely strong based on level or growth. Sales do not follow suit. This gives us some reason to suspect that there is some lumpiness involved in the manufacturing data as distinct from strength. That will be something to watch. Overall mining and manufacturing sales growth is essentially at its historic median at a rank of 49.8. However, capital goods, intermediate goods and manufacturing sales all have rankings at or above their medians - as high as a 61-percentile standing for capital goods.

**Industrial confidence**
Industrial confidence for Germany, France, Italy and Spain (the EU’s big-four economies) show rankings based on these survey levels that are much lower at the 11th percentile for Germany, the 42nd and 36th percentiles, for France and Italy, respectively. Spain scores better with a 61.8 percentile standing on its industrial confidence measure. 

On balance, there is now an accelerating profile that is broad in sales trends and especially strong order trends. Perhaps Europe, under the pressure to stimulate its miliary capabilities, has a core of demand to help drive output ahead more consistently. This is something to watch in the coming months.