Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081120a.jpg" width="353">
Rising unemployment caused initial claims for jobless insurance to rise further above 500,000. At 542,000 claims reached their highest level since 1992. But even that comparison, as bad as it is, understates the current degree of labor market weakness. The 1992 level above 500,00 was reached for only one week during the short-lived, early-1990&#39;s recession. Quickly claims fell back below 400,000. The higher level of claims now is especially troubling since it likely will be sustained for a longer period.
The higher level of claims now is especially disturbing for two reasons. One is that it likely will be sustained for a longer period than one week. The second is that changes to the unemployment insurance program have made it more difficult to be eligible for a claim. Even a lower level of claims now is comparable to a weaker labor market.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081120b.jpg" width="353">
Expectations had been for claims last week of 500,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims rose to this cycle&#39;s high of 506,500 (52.7% y/y).
The latest level of initial claims for unemployment insurance is for the week which covers the survey period for November nonfarm payrolls. Claims rose 63,000, or 13.2%, from the October period. During the last ten years there has been a 78% (inverse) correlation between the level of initial jobless insurance claims and the monthly change in nonfarm payrolls.
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending Nov. 8 were in California (+15,532), North Carolina (+6,453), Tennessee (+5,067), New Jersey (+4,706), and New York (+3,680), while the largest decreases were in Kentucky (-1,562), Puerto Rico (-875), Delaware (-751), Maine (-349), and Rhode Island (-335).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance during the week of November 8 rose by 109,000, about the same as during the prior week during which the level was upwardly revised. The four-week average of continuing claims rose to 3,867,000, this cycle&#39;s high and the highest since 1982. Continuing claims provide some indication of workers&#39; ability to find employment and they lag the initial claims figures by one week.
The insured rate of unemployment rose to a new cycle high of 3.0%. The Commerce Department indicated that the highest insured unemployment rates were in Puerto Rico (5.3 percent), Oregon (3.9), California (3.7), Nevada (3.7), Michigan (3.5), Alaska (3.4), Pennsylvania (3.4), South Carolina (3.4), New Jersey (3.3), Arkansas (3.2), and North Carolina (3.2).
The minutes to the latest FOMC meeting can be found <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20081119a.htm"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a>&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">11/15/08</th>
<th scope="col">11/08/08</th>
<th scope="col">10/31/08</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>542</td>
<td>&nbsp;515</td>
<td>484</td>
<td>62.8%</td>
<td>322</td>
<td>313</td>
<td>331</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>4,012</td>
<td>3,903</td>
<td>55.5%</td>
<td>2,552</td>
<td>2,459</td>
<td>2,662</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Philadelphia Fed Index Lowest Since 1990 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> November 20, 2008


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081120c.jpg" width="353">
The latest report from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank continued to paint a bleak picture of the U.S. economy. The bank reported that its November Index of General Business conditions in the manufacturing sector was even more negative at -39.3 than it was last month at -37.5. The latest was lowest level since the recession of 1990. A reading of -35 had been expected for this month.
During the last ten years there has been a 61% correlation between the level of the Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions Index and the three-month growth in factory sector industrial production. There has been a 43% correlation with q/q growth in real GDP.
The Philadelphia Fed constructs a diffusion index for total business activity and each of the sub-indexes. The business conditions index reflects a separate survey question.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081120d.jpg" width="353">
Amongst the sub-indexes, the new orders index again led this month&#39;s weakness with a reading of -31.4, the lowest level since the recession of 1990. The shipments index was unchanged m/m following its 21.4 point October decline.
The employment index fell another 7.2 points to the lowest level since the recession year of 2001. Thirty eight percent of respondents expected to reduce employment levels, the highest since 1981, while only 12.6% expected to raise them. During the last ten years there has been a 79% correlation between the index level and the m/m change in manufacturing sector payrolls.
The prices paid index fell to a record low with a 37.9 point drop month-to-month to 30.7. During the last ten years there has been a 67% correlation between the prices paid index and the three-month growth in the intermediate goods PPI. There has been an 82% correlation with the change in core intermediate goods prices.
The separate index of expected business conditions in six months also fell further to near its lowest level since 2001. The expectations index for new orders fell further into negative territory. The expectations index for employment fell to near its record low while the expected prices paid figure fell to its record low.
The latest Business Outlook Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia can be found <a href="http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2008/bos1108.cfm">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Philadelphia Fed (%)</th>
<th scope="col">November</th>
<th scope="col">October</th>
<th scope="col">November&nbsp; &#39;07</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">General Activity Index</td>
<td>-39.3</td>
<td>-37.5</td>
<td>7.5</td>
<td>5.1</td>
<td>8.1</td>
<td>11.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Prices Paid Index</td>
<td>-30.7</td>
<td>&nbsp;7.2</td>
<td>&nbsp;34.4</td>
<td>26.4</td>
<td>36.6</td>
<td>40.1</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Leading Indicators Fell Again 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> November 20, 2008


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081120e.jpg" width="353">
The Conference Board indicated that the October composite index of leading economic indicators fell by 0.8% after rising a downwardly revised 0.1% during September. The peak for the index was in July of last year and the six-month percent change fell to -4.7%, the largest rate of decline in nearly one year.
Six of the ten components of the leading index fell last month notably consumer expectations, vendor performance, stock prices and building permits.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081120f.jpg" width="353">
The breadth of one-month increase amongst the leaders&#39; 10 components fell back to 35% and over a six-month period the breadth of gain amongst the components picked slightly to 30%.
The leading index is based on actual reports for eight economic data series. The Conference Board initially estimates two series, orders for consumer goods and orders for capital goods.
The coincident indicators rose 0.2% following five consecutive months of decline. Three quarters of the index components rose m/m but over six months none rose. Over the last ten years there has been an 86% correlation between the y/y changes in the coincident indicators and real GDP.
The lagging index ticked up 0.1%, the smallest increase in four months. The ratio of coincident to lagging indicators (a measure of economic excess) also ticked up slightly but remained near its lowest level since 1982.
Visit the Conference Board&#39;s <a href="http://www.conference-board.org">site</a> for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/BCI/BCI.HTM">Business Cycle Indicators</a> (%)</th>
<th scope="col">October</th>
<th scope="col">September</th>
<th scope="col">August</th>
<th scope="col">July, 6 Month % (AR)</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Leading</td>
<td>-0.8</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>-0.9</td>
<td>-4.7</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Coincident</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>-0.7</td>
<td>-0.4</td>
<td>-2.4</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Lagging</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>0.3</td>
<td>0.4</td>
<td>2.5</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
New Orders for Italy and France Sink 
by <a href="/comment/Brusca.html">Robert Brusca</a> November 20, 2008


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081120g.jpg" width="353">
For France and Italy new industrial orders continue to sink. France is right now seeing the greater weakness. Foreign orders show consistent weakness across time horizons for both Italy and for France. For France the recent deterioration in foreign orders is a bit worse than for Italy. But one remaining difference between these two countries is that in Italy domestic orders have shown some resiliency. Over three six and twelve months Italian orders have mostly showed increases. Meanwhile for France total and foreign order are down by almost the same percentage amounts over three months, hinting at weakening domestic orders. Italy may just be a step behind however. While Italy&#146;s domestic orders have been resilient, in September they have dropped by a sharp 2.6%. Also Italy&#146;s overall sales trends are deteriorating very rapidly. Both Italy and France seem to be well on their way to a deepening weakness in manufacturing. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
Italy Orders
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">Saar exept m/m</td>
<td>Sep-08</td>
<td>Aug-08</td>
<td>Jul-08</td>
<td>3-mo</td>
<td>6-mo</td>
<td>12-mo</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>-5.1%</td>
<td>-3.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Foreign</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>-3.4%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>-13.1%</td>
<td>-11.6%</td>
<td>-11.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Domestic</td>
<td>-2.6%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
<td>-1.4%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Memo</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Sales</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>-3.1%</td>
<td>-2.6%</td>
<td>-15.1%</td>
<td>-1.6%</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td colspan="7">French Orders</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Saar exept m/m</td>
<td>Sep-08</td>
<td>Aug-08</td>
<td>Jul-08</td>
<td>3-mo</td>
<td>6-mo</td>
<td>12-mo</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>-7.6%</td>
<td>4.7%</td>
<td>-10.1%</td>
<td>-3.0%</td>
<td>-4.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Foreign</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>-8.3%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>-11.9%</td>
<td>-7.2%</td>
<td>-8.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


</html>

Rising unemployment caused initial claims for jobless insurance to rise further above 500,000. At 542,000 claims reached their highest level since 1992. But even that comparison, as bad as it is, understates the current degree of [...]

U.S. Claims For Jobless Insurance Highest Since 1992

Robert Brusca

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081119d.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
UK orders rebounded ever so slightly from last month&#8217;s extreme
weakness and still reside in the bottom 2% of their range since about
2000. Export orders have had the same response, making a token bounce
in November. Stocks of finished goods are rated as at their highest
levels indicating a problem build up with orders falling so fast. 
 

Not surprisingly output volume for the next 3-months is rated
at a net of -42 the weakest reading on record. Prices are still posted
to make gains with a net +10 reading that is still in the top 21% of
its range. So inflation pressures are proving sticky in the face of
horrific weakness. The NTC (Markit) diffusion survey for Nov is not
quite ready but its low readings essentially confirms the deteriorating
picture from the CBI. 


<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr><th colspan="11" scope="col">UK Industrial volume data CBI Survey </th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="grey4">
<td class="firstcol">Reported:</td>
<td>Nov 08</td>
<td>Oct 08</td>
<td>Sep 08</td>
<td>Aug 08</td>
<td>Jul 08</td>
<td>12MO Avg</td>
<td>Pcntle</td>
<td>Max</td>
<td>Min</td>
<td>Range</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">Total Orders</td>
<td>-38</td>
<td>-39</td>
<td>-26</td>
<td>-13</td>
<td>-8</td>
<td>-4</td>
<td>2%</td>
<td>9</td>
<td>-40</td>
<td>49</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">Export Orders</td>
<td>-31</td>
<td>-32</td>
<td>-25</td>
<td>-9</td>
<td>-7</td>
<td>-7</td>
<td>17%</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>-39</td>
<td>42</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">Stocks: FinGds</td>
<td>25</td>
<td>24</td>
<td>21</td>
<td>18</td>
<td>13</td>
<td>13</td>
<td>100%</td>
<td>24</td>
<td>-2</td>
<td>26</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey2">
<td colspan="11" class="firstcol">Looking ahead</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">Output Volume: Nxt 3M</td>
<td>-42</td>
<td>-31</td>
<td>-16</td>
<td>-13</td>
<td>-7</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>0%</td>
<td>28</td>
<td>-31</td>
<td>59</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">Avg Prices 4Nxt 3m</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>23</td>
<td>31</td>
<td>34</td>
<td>28</td>
<td>25</td>
<td>79%</td>
<td>34</td>
<td>-19</td>
<td>53</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey2">
<td colspan="11" class="firstcol">From end 2000</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey1">
<td colspan="11" class="firstcol">Compare to CIPS MFG</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey4">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>Oct 08</td>
<td>Sep 08</td>
<td>Aug 08</td>
<td>Jul 08</td>
<td>12MO Avg</td>
<td>Pcntle</td>
<td>Max</td>
<td>Min</td>
<td>Range</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">UK MFG</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>41.49</td>
<td>41.15</td>
<td>45.28</td>
<td>44.37</td>
<td>48.05</td>
<td>2%</td>
<td>56.3</td>
<td>41.15</td>
<td>15</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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UK orders rebounded ever so slightly from last month’s extreme weakness and still reside in the bottom 2% of their range since about 2000. Export orders have had the same response, making a token bounce in November. Stocks of finished [...]

UK's CBI Survey of Industry

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081119c.jpg" width="353">
Housing starts fell to a record low last month. At 791,000 units (SAAR), the level was the lowest in the series&#39; history which dates back to 1959. The 4.5% decline followed a revised 3.0% September drop that was slightly shallower than reported initially. Consensus expectations had been for 780,000 starts.
Starts of single-family homes fell another 3.3% to 531,000 units, their lowest level since late-1981. Since their peak in early 2006, single-family starts are down by roughly two-thirds. Permits to build single family homes also fell 14.5% (-43.3% y/y) to 460,000, their lowest since the 1981-82 recession.
Starts began 4Q down 11.9% from the 3Q average. During the last ten years there has been an 84% correlation between the q/q change in single-family starts and their contribution to quarterly GDP growth.
October multi-family starts fell 6.8% from September and they are down by one-third from last year.
By region, October starts of single-family units in the Northeast were unchanged m/m but down 40.6% y/y. In the Midwest starts rose 11.5% but they remained 42.9% lower than last October. In the South single-family starts fell a hard 10.5% (-40.6% y/y) to their lowest since 1990 while in the West starts ticked up 1.7% (-35.1% y/y) after a 13.9% September decline.
Today&#39;s speech Monetary Policy and Asset Prices Revisited by Fed Vice-Chairman Donald L. Kohn can be found <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/kohn20081119a.htm"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Housing Starts (000s, SAAR)</th>
<th scope="col">October</th>
<th scope="col">September</th>
<th scope="col">August</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>791</td>
<td>828</td>
<td>854</td>
<td>-38.0%</td>
<td>1,341</td>
<td>1,812</td>
<td>2,073</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Single-Family</td>
<td>531</td>
<td>549</td>
<td>615</td>
<td>-39.9</td>
<td>1,034</td>
<td>1,474</td>
<td>1,719</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Multi-Family</td>
<td>260</td>
<td>279</td>
<td>239</td>
<td>-33.5</td>
<td>307</td>
<td>338</td>
<td>354</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Building Permits</td>
<td>708</td>
<td>805</td>
<td>857</td>
<td>-40.1</td>
<td>1,389</td>
<td>1,844</td>
<td>2,160</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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Housing starts fell to a record low last month. At 791,000 units (SAAR), the level was the lowest in the series' history which dates back to 1959. The 4.5% decline followed a revised 3.0% September drop that was slightly shallower [...]

U.S. Housing Starts At Record Low in October

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081119a.jpg" width="353">
The consumer price index (CPI-U) fell a record 1.0% last month versus September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The decline followed a roughly unchanged figure and it about matched Consensus expectations for a 0.8% decline. The latest reading lowered the three-month rate of change to 4.4% (AR).
Lower energy prices accounted for most of the decline in the total as they fell 8.6% from September. The drop was led by a record 14.2% drop in gasoline prices (+12.0% y/y) to an average of $3.05 per gallon. Prices have moved even lower this month to $2.07. Fuel oil prices fell a sharp 8.8% (+21.7% y/y), down for the third straight month. Prices for natural gas &amp; electricity fell just slightly m/m (+9.8% y/y).<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081119b.jpg" width="353">
Food &amp; beverage prices increased 0.3%, half the September rise and the weakest gain since March. For the bulk of the year, however, food prices have been quite strong. They have posted a 6.1% y/y increase, the fastest since early 1990. September prices for cereals &amp; bakery products and meats, poultry &amp; fish remained firm, each up 0.6%. Year-to-year, they have increased 12.5% y/y and 6.2% y/y, respectively.
The CPI less food &amp; energy fell 0.1%, the first decline since late 1982. Consensus expectations were for a 0.2% increase. The three-month annual rate of increase fell to 1.1% from its July high of 3.5%.
Core goods prices fell by 0.2%, the second consecutive monthly drop. The three-month rate of decline amounted to 1.9%, the weakest since late 2006. The latest decline was led again by lower prices for new &amp; used motor vehicles which were down another 0.7% (-2.3% y/y). Apparel prices also fell by a sharp 1.0% (+0.3% y/y). Apparel prices fell 0.4% last year. Prices for household furnishings &amp; operations were unchanged (+2.0% y/y). Continued strength was seen in tobacco prices which rose 0.4% (7.0% y/y).
Core services prices were unchanged, their weakest performance since 1982. The three-month growth rate eased to 2.2%, the lowest since April. Medical care services prices rose just 0.2% (3.4% y/y) while education costs remained firm and gained another 0.4% (5.9% y/y). Shelter prices were unchanged (+2.2% y/y) as the housing market remained depressed, the weakest y/y gain since mid-2005. Owners equivalent rent of primary residence, a measure not equivalent to other house price measures, ticked up 0.1% (2.3% y/y). Rents remained firm and rose by 0.4% (3.7% y/y). Public transportation prices fell for the second consecutive month. The 3.3% decline nevertheless left them up 8.4% y/y. Recreation prices ticked 0.1% higher (2.2% y/y).
The chained CPI, which adjusts for shifts in consumption patterns, fell 0.8%. Less food and energy, chained prices ticked up just 0.1%.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E801/@E80101/@E80101.HTM">Consumer Price Index</a> (%)</th>
<th scope="col">October</th>
<th scope="col">September</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">Total&nbsp;</td>
<td>-1.0</td>
<td>-0.1</td>
<td>3.7</td>
<td>2.9</td>
<td>3.2</td>
<td>3.4</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">Total less Food &amp; Energy</td>
<td>-0.1</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>2.2</td>
<td>2.3</td>
<td>2.5</td>
<td>2.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Goods less Food &amp; Energy</td>
<td>-0.4</td>
<td>-0.2</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>-0.4</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>0.5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Services less Energy</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>0.3</td>
<td>3.0</td>
<td>3.4</td>
<td>3.4</td>
<td>2.8</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Energy</td>
<td>-8.6</td>
<td>-1.9</td>
<td>11.6</td>
<td>5.6</td>
<td>11.0</td>
<td>17.0</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Food &amp; Beverages</td>
<td>0.3</td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>6.1</td>
<td>3.9</td>
<td>2.3</td>
<td>2.5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E801/@E80113/@E80113.HTM">Chained CPI: Total (NSA)</a>&nbsp;</td>
<td>-0.8</td>
<td>-0.1</td>
<td>3.3 </td>
<td>2.5</td>
<td>2.9 </td>
<td>2.9</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Total less Food &amp; Energy&nbsp;</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>1.9</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td>2.2</td>
<td>1.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The consumer price index (CPI-U) fell a record 1.0% last month versus September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The decline followed a roughly unchanged figure and it about matched Consensus expectations for a 0.8% [...]

U.S. CPI Fell A Record 1.0% and Core Prices Declined As Well

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081119a.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The consumer price index (CPI-U) fell a
record 1.0% last month versus September, according to the Bureau of
Labor Statistics. The decline followed a roughly unchanged figure and
it about matched Consensus expectations for a 0.8% decline. The latest
reading lowered the three-month rate of change to 4.4% (AR).
Lower energy prices accounted for most of
the decline in the total as they fell 8.6% from September. The drop was
led by a record 14.2% drop in gasoline prices (+12.0% y/y) to an
average of $3.05 per gallon. Prices have moved even lower this month to
$2.07. Fuel oil prices fell a sharp 8.8% (+21.7% y/y), down for the
third straight month. Prices for natural gas &amp; electricity fell
just slightly m/m (+9.8% y/y).<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081119b.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Food &amp; beverage prices increased
0.3%, half the September rise and the weakest gain since March. For the
bulk of the year, however, food prices have been quite strong. They
have posted a 6.1% y/y increase, the fastest since early 1990.
September prices for cereals &amp; bakery products and meats,
poultry &amp; fish remained firm, each up 0.6%. Year-to-year, they
have increased 12.5% y/y and 6.2% y/y, respectively.
The CPI less food &amp; energy fell
0.1%, the first decline since late 1982. Consensus expectations were
for a 0.2% increase. The three-month annual rate of increase fell to
1.1% from its July high of 3.5%.
Core goods prices fell by 0.2%, the second
consecutive monthly drop. The three-month rate of decline amounted to
1.9%, the weakest since late 2006. The latest decline was led again by
lower prices for new &amp; used motor vehicles which were down
another 0.7% (-2.3% y/y). Apparel prices also fell by a sharp 1.0%
(+0.3% y/y). Apparel prices fell 0.4% last year. Prices for household
furnishings &amp; operations were unchanged (+2.0% y/y). Continued
strength was seen in tobacco prices which rose 0.4% (7.0% y/y).
Core services prices were unchanged, their
weakest performance since 1982. The three-month growth rate eased to
2.2%, the lowest since April. Medical care services prices rose just
0.2% (3.4% y/y) while education costs remained firm and gained another
0.4% (5.9% y/y). Shelter prices were unchanged (+2.2% y/y) as the
housing market remained depressed, the weakest y/y gain since mid-2005.
Owners equivalent rent of primary residence, a measure not equivalent
to other house price measures, ticked up 0.1% (2.3% y/y). Rents
remained firm and rose by 0.4% (3.7% y/y). Public transportation prices
fell for the second consecutive month. The 3.3% decline nevertheless
left them up 8.4% y/y. Recreation prices ticked 0.1% higher (2.2% y/y).
The chained CPI, which adjusts for shifts in consumption
patterns, fell 0.8%. Less food and energy, chained prices ticked up
just 0.1%.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E801/@E80101/@E80101.HTM">Consumer
Price Index</a> (%)</th>
<th scope="col">October</th>
<th scope="col">September</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">Total&nbsp;</td>
<td>-1.0</td>
<td>-0.1</td>
<td>3.7</td>
<td>2.9</td>
<td>3.2</td>
<td>3.4</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">Total less Food &amp; Energy</td>
<td>-0.1</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>2.2</td>
<td>2.3</td>
<td>2.5</td>
<td>2.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Goods less Food
&amp; Energy</td>
<td>-0.4</td>
<td>-0.2</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>-0.4</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>0.5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Services less Energy</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>0.3</td>
<td>3.0</td>
<td>3.4</td>
<td>3.4</td>
<td>2.8</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Energy</td>
<td>-8.6</td>
<td>-1.9</td>
<td>11.6</td>
<td>5.6</td>
<td>11.0</td>
<td>17.0</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Food &amp;
Beverages</td>
<td>0.3</td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>6.1</td>
<td>3.9</td>
<td>2.3</td>
<td>2.5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E801/@E80113/@E80113.HTM">Chained
CPI: Total (NSA)</a>&nbsp;</td>
<td>-0.8</td>
<td>-0.1</td>
<td>3.3 </td>
<td>2.5</td>
<td>2.9 </td>
<td>2.9</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Total less Food
&amp; Energy&nbsp;</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>1.9</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td>2.2</td>
<td>1.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Housing Starts At Record Low
in October 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom
Moeller</a> November 19, 2008


<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081119c.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Housing starts fell to a record low last month. At 791,000
units (SAAR), the level was the lowest in the series' history which
dates back to 1959. The 4.5% decline followed a revised 3.0% September
drop that was slightly shallower than reported initially.
Consensus expectations had been for 780,000 starts.
Starts of single-family homes fell another 3.3% to 531,000
units, their lowest level since late-1981. Since their peak in early
2006, single-family starts are down by roughly two-thirds. Permits to
build single family homes also fell 14.5% (-43.3% y/y) to 460,000,
their lowest since the 1981-82 recession.
Starts began 4Q down 11.9% from the 3Q average.
During the last ten years there has been an 84% correlation between the
q/q change in single-family starts and their contribution to quarterly
GDP growth.
October multi-family starts fell 6.8% from September and they
are down by one-third from last year.
By region, October starts of single-family units in the
Northeast were unchanged m/m but down 40.6% y/y. In the Midwest starts
rose 11.5% but they remained 42.9% lower than last October. In the
South single-family starts fell a hard 10.5% (-40.6% y/y) to their
lowest since 1990 while in the West starts ticked up 1.7% (-35.1% y/y)
after a 13.9% September decline.
Today's speech Monetary Policy and Asset Prices
Revisited by Fed Vice-Chairman Donald L. Kohn can be found <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/kohn20081119a.htm">
here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Housing
Starts (000s, SAAR)</th>
<th scope="col">October</th>
<th scope="col">September</th>
<th scope="col">August</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>791</td>
<td>828</td>
<td>854</td>
<td>-38.0%</td>
<td>1,341</td>
<td>1,812</td>
<td>2,073</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Single-Family</td>
<td>531</td>
<td>549</td>
<td>615</td>
<td>-39.9</td>
<td>1,034</td>
<td>1,474</td>
<td>1,719</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Multi-Family</td>
<td>260</td>
<td>279</td>
<td>239</td>
<td>-33.5</td>
<td>307</td>
<td>338</td>
<td>354</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Building Permits</td>
<td>708</td>
<td>805</td>
<td>857</td>
<td>-40.1</td>
<td>1,389</td>
<td>1,844</td>
<td>2,160</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
UK's CBI Survey of Industry 
by <a href="/comment/Brusca.html">Robert
Brusca</a> November 19, 2008


<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081119d.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
UK orders rebounded ever so slightly from last month&#8217;s extreme
weakness and still reside in the bottom 2% of their range since about
2000. Export orders have had the same response, making a token bounce
in November. Stocks of finished goods are rated as at their highest
levels indicating a problem build up with orders falling so fast. 
 

Not surprisingly output volume for the next 3-months is rated
at a net of -42 the weakest reading on record. Prices are still posted
to make gains with a net +10 reading that is still in the top 21% of
its range. So inflation pressures are proving sticky in the face of
horrific weakness. The NTC (Markit) diffusion survey for Nov is not
quite ready but its low readings essentially confirms the deteriorating
picture from the CBI. 


<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr> <th colspan="11" scope="col">UK
Industrial volume data CBI Survey </th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="grey4">
<td class="firstcol">Reported:</td>
<td>Nov 08</td>
<td>Oct 08</td>
<td>Sep 08</td>
<td>Aug 08</td>
<td>Jul 08</td>
<td>12MO Avg</td>
<td>Pcntle</td>
<td>Max</td>
<td>Min</td>
<td>Range</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">Total Orders</td>
<td>-38</td>
<td>-39</td>
<td>-26</td>
<td>-13</td>
<td>-8</td>
<td>-4</td>
<td>2%</td>
<td>9</td>
<td>-40</td>
<td>49</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">Export Orders</td>
<td>-31</td>
<td>-32</td>
<td>-25</td>
<td>-9</td>
<td>-7</td>
<td>-7</td>
<td>17%</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>-39</td>
<td>42</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">Stocks: FinGds</td>
<td>25</td>
<td>24</td>
<td>21</td>
<td>18</td>
<td>13</td>
<td>13</td>
<td>100%</td>
<td>24</td>
<td>-2</td>
<td>26</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey2">
<td colspan="11" class="firstcol">Looking ahead</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">Output Volume: Nxt 3M</td>
<td>-42</td>
<td>-31</td>
<td>-16</td>
<td>-13</td>
<td>-7</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>0%</td>
<td>28</td>
<td>-31</td>
<td>59</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">Avg Prices 4Nxt 3m</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>23</td>
<td>31</td>
<td>34</td>
<td>28</td>
<td>25</td>
<td>79%</td>
<td>34</td>
<td>-19</td>
<td>53</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey2">
<td colspan="11" class="firstcol">From end 2000</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey1">
<td colspan="11" class="firstcol">Compare to CIPS MFG</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey4">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>Oct 08</td>
<td>Sep 08</td>
<td>Aug 08</td>
<td>Jul 08</td>
<td>12MO Avg</td>
<td>Pcntle</td>
<td>Max</td>
<td>Min</td>
<td>Range</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">UK MFG</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>41.49</td>
<td>41.15</td>
<td>45.28</td>
<td>44.37</td>
<td>48.05</td>
<td>2%</td>
<td>56.3</td>
<td>41.15</td>
<td>15</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081118j.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The November Housing Market Index (HMI) from the National
Association of Home Builders plumbed a new record low. At a single
level of 9 nearly halved the old record low of 14 reached just last
month. The index is compiled from survey questions asking builders to
rate market conditions as &#8220;good&#8221;, &#8220;fair&#8221;, &#8220;poor&#8221; or &#8220;very high&#8221; to
&#8220;very low&#8221;. Numerical equivalent results over 50 indicate a predominance of &#8220;good&#8221; readings.
Since 1990, the year-to-year change in this index has had a
correlation of 72% with the year-to-year percentage change in new
single-family home sales. As a result, the latest HMI index at best
indicates a bottoming of the housing market's troubles.
The Home Builders Association indicated that its sub-index of
present sales conditions also fell to a record low of 8. That was down
from last year's average level of 27 and 2006's average of 45.
Builders&#8217; expectations for sales six months was relatively strong an held steady at a level of 19. The &#8220;traffic of prospective buyers, however, fell to a new low index reading of 7.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081118k.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Each of the country's regions showed deterioration in the index as conditions in each region fell to a new low.
Not only are builders disturbed by the market for new homes, but the
appraisal of conditions for remodeling a home also reached a record low
during the third quarter.
The current market condition for remodeling of a home also is deemed poor.
The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. The
weights assigned to the individual index components are .5920 for
single family detached sales, present time; .1358 for single family
detached sales, next six months; and .2722 for traffic of prospective
buyers. The results, along with other housing and remodeling indexes
from NAHB Economics, are included in Haver&#8217;s SURVEYS database.
Mortgage Innovation, Mortgage Choice, and Housing Decisions from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/08/11/Chambers.pdf">here</a>.
Changing the Rule: State Mortgage Foreclosure Moratoria During the Great Depression is available <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/08/11/Wheelock.pdf">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S4/@S4.HTM">Nat'l Association of Home Builders</a></th>
<th scope="col">November</th>
<th scope="col">October &nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">November '07</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Composite Housing Market Index</td>
<td>9</td>
<td>14</td>
<td>19</td>
<td>27</td>
<td>42</td>
<td>67</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

The November Housing Market Index (HMI) from the National Association of Home Builders plumbed a new record low. At a single level of 9 nearly halved the old record low of 14 reached just last month. The index is compiled from survey [...]

U.S. Home Builders' Survey Lower Still

Louise Curley

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081118g.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The
United Kingdom released inflation numbers today.&nbsp; The
acceleration in inflation in the previous months came to a halt in
October.&nbsp; The official measure, the year- to- year percent
change in the consumer price index, fell to 4.5% in October from 5.2%
in September.&nbsp; &nbsp;The core index, which excludes
energy, food, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, fell to 1.9% in October
from 2.2%.&nbsp; The year- to- year change in the retail price
index, which until 2003 was the official measure of inflation, fell to
4.2% in October from 5.00% in September. The three measures of
inflation are shown in the first chart.&nbsp;Except for
the last two months, the inflation rate as measured by the CPI has been
lower than that measured by the RPI largely because of the exclusion in
the former and inclusion in the latter of mortgage interest payments
and other housing related costs.&nbsp; Until June of this year the
exclusion of these items tended to lower the CPI inflation rate, but
since then it has added to it, as can be seen in the second
chart.The declines in the various measures of inflation were
due largely to the declines in the prices of food and oil that affected
the indexes directly and declines in the prices of&nbsp; base
metals that affected the indexes indirectly.&nbsp; The declines are
likely to continue, if not intensify, as world demand continues to
fall.&nbsp; Longer term, however, the current fiscal and monetary
policies being pursued by the developed and developing nations should
help to avoid deflation such as engulfed the globe in the thirties. (
If, indeed, they do not lead eventually to a resurgence of
inflation.)&nbsp; As an illustration of the course of inflation and
deflation in the twenties and thirties of the last century, we use the
changes in the consumer price index for the United States, the series,
PCUN67, found in the Haver Analytics' USECON&nbsp;
data base.&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;
<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081118i.jpg" border="0" height="265" width="312"><img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081118h.jpg" border="0" height="265" width="312">
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">UNITED
KINGDOM INFLATION RATES&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Oct 08</th>
<th scope="col">Sep&nbsp; 08&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Oct&nbsp; 07&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">M/M Chg</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y&nbsp; &nbsp;Chg</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Consumer Price Index
(Y/Y % Chg)</td>
<td>4.5</td>
<td>5.2</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td>-0.7</td>
<td>2.5</td>
<td>2.32</td>
<td>2.33</td>
<td>2.05</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Core CPI Index (Y/Y %
Chg)</td>
<td>1.9</td>
<td>2.2</td>
<td>1.5</td>
<td>-0.3</td>
<td>0.4</td>
<td>1.69</td>
<td>1.30</td>
<td>1.51</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Retail Price
Index&nbsp; (Y/Y % Chg)</td>
<td>4.2</td>
<td>5.0</td>
<td>4.2</td>
<td>-0.8</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>4.27</td>
<td>3.19</td>
<td>2.83</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

The United Kingdom released inflation numbers today. The acceleration in inflation in the previous months came to a halt in October. The official measure, the year- to- year percent change in the consumer price index, fell to 4.5% in [...]

Inflation in the U.K. Declines in October

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081118f.jpg" width="353">
According to the International Council of Shopping Centers-Goldman Sachs Index, a 0.3% uptick in chain store sales last week made up a piece of the prior week&#39;s 1.0% decline. Nevertheless, sales ticked down 0.1% from the year-ago level.
The latest weekly increase left sales so far in November down 0.6% from October. During all of October sales fell 1.0% from September following that month&#39;s 1.9% drop. The level of sales during the latest week remained near the lowest since December of last year.
During the last ten years there has been a 59% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.
The ICSC-Goldman Sachs retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
The weekly leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-Goldman Sachs ticked up 0.1% but was still down 5.7% from the year-ago level and it was at it&#39;s lowest level since 1996.
The chain store sales figures are available in Haver&#39;s SURVEYW database.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">11/15/08</th>
<th scope="col">11/08/08</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>478.5</td>
<td>477.2</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


</html>

According to the International Council of Shopping Centers-Goldman Sachs Index, a 0.3% uptick in chain store sales last week made up a piece of the prior week's 1.0% decline. Nevertheless, sales ticked down 0.1% from the year-ago level.

U.S. Chain Store Sales Fell Versus Last Year

Even with expected tariff-induced increases in inflation, BCFF forecasters look for a more aggressive round of monetary easing

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

Rising long-term yields a global phenomenon

US financial market concerns shifting from growth to inflation

Economic activity is picking up in the US but remains lackluster abroad

Policy uncertainty has surged since the US national elections.

Recent turnaround in US economic surprises leading to increases in rate-cut expectations

The outlook has brightened in the US, while it has dimmed for other major economies

Headline US PCE inflation elevated by sticky services prices

US and global equity prices have recently diverged

US leading global upturn in economic surprises

Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary easing apart from Japan

Recent rise in global supply chain pressures could augur a pickup in global inflation pressures

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The Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% in April after easing 0.1% in March and rising 0.2% in February. A 0.3% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The y/y increase in the headline CPI dropped to 2.3% from 2.4% in March, the weakest y/y gain since February 2021. It stood below the 9.1% peak in June 2022. The CPI excluding food & energy rose 0.2% in April following increases of 0.1% in March and 0.2% in February. A 0.3% rise had been expected. The 2.8% y/y gain remained the weakest rise in core prices in four years and below the 6.6% peak in September 2022.

Energy prices rose 0.7% (-3.7% y/y) last month after falling 2.4% in March. Gasoline prices slipped 0.1% (-11.7% y/y) after falling 6.3% in March. Fuel oil prices weakened 1.3% (-9.6% y/y) after falling 4.2% in March. Natural gas prices jumped 3.7% (15.7% y/y) following a 3.6% gain, and electricity prices gained 0.8% (3.6% y/y) after rising 0.9% in March.

Food prices eased 0.1% (+2.8% y/y) in April after a 0.4% March increase as egg prices fell 12.7% (+49.3% y/y) following a 5.9% gain. Meat, poultry & fish prices held steady (+3.4% y/y) after a 0.6% rise, while dairy product prices slipped 0.2% (+1.6% y/y) after a 1.0% March strengthening. Cereal & bakery product costs weakened 0.5% (unchanged y/y) after a 0.1% easing while fruit & vegetable prices dropped 0.4% (-0.9% y/y), the fifth decline in six months. Nonalcoholic beverage prices rose 0.7% (3.2% y/y) in April after rising 0.6% in March.

Goods prices less food and energy rose 0.1% both m/m and y/y in April after easing 0.1% in March. Prices of used cars and trucks fell 0.5% (+1.5% y/y) last month after falling 0.7% in March while new vehicle costs held steady (0.3% y/y) after edging up 0.1% in March. Apparel prices eased 0.2% (-0.7% y/y) following a 0.4% gain. Appliance prices increased 0.8% (-1.2% y/y) after a 0.1% easing. Home furnishings prices increased 0.2% (0.3% y/y) after holding steady in March. Recreation product costs rose 0.4% (-1.8% y/y) in April after falling 0.3%. Education & communication product costs rose 0.3% last month (-5.3% y/y) after rising 0.5% in March.

Services prices less energy moved up 0.3% (3.6% y/y) last month following a 0.1% March gain. Shelter prices rose 0.3% (4.0% y/y) last month after a 0.2% rise as owners’ equivalent rent of primary residences increased 0.4% (4.3% y/y), the same as in March. The cost of lodging away from home eased 0.1% (-1.4% y/y) after falling 3.5% in March. Rents of primary residences gained 0.3% (4.0% y/y) for the fifth consecutive month. Transportation service prices edged 0.1% higher (2.5% y/y) after falling 1.4% in March reflecting a 0.6% rise (6.4% y/y) in the cost of motor vehicle insurance. Public transportation costs declined 1.8% (-5.6% y/y) after falling 4.2% during March. The cost of medical services increased 0.5% (3.1% y/y), the same as in March, but the cost of recreation services fell 0.3% (3.6% y/y) after increasing 0.1% in March. Education & communication services prices fell 0.2% (+1.2% y/y) after rising 0.2%.

The Consumer Price figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Annual total & core gains are the weakest in four-years.
- Energy costs move up but food prices slip.
- Core goods prices edge higher & service price gain picks up.

U.S. Consumer Price Index & Core Prices Rise Modestly in April

Winnie Tapasanun

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The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 95.8 in April, the lowest level since October, after a 3.3-point decline to 97.4 in March, according to the Small Business Economic Trends survey conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business. This was the second successive month that the index was below the 51-year average of 98. The index was down from its recent peak of 105.1 in December but up from 89.7 in April 2024 and a low of 88.5 in March 2024. Six of the 10 index components fell, three rose, and one was unchanged. The NFIB Small Business Uncertainty Index declined to 92 in April, the lowest level since December, after an eight-point drop to 96 in March. The index, while down from its record high of 110 in October, was well above a low of 65 in November 2023 and its historical average of 68.

The outlook for business conditions in the next six months remained positive for the sixth consecutive month in the latest survey. The net balance of respondents expecting the economy to improve decreased to 15% in April, the lowest level since October, on top of a 16-point plunge to 21% in March; however, having remained significantly above a record low of -61% in June 2022. Expected real sales dropped to a net -1% in April after an 11-point slide to 3% in March, posting the first negative reading and the lowest since October. The latest figure was up from its recent low of -18% in August. A net -8% of respondents reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, up from -11% in March and registering the highest reading since September 2023. The latest result, however, was below the most recent positive reading of 1% in May 2022 and a peak of 9% in June 2021.

Plans to make capital outlays slid to 18% in April, the lowest level since April 2020, following a two-point increase to 21% in March. These numbers were down from their recent high of 28% in November and a high of 31% in October 2021. Plans to expand the business registered at 9% in April and March, the lowest reading since October, following 12% in February; the latest figure was down from its most recent high of 20% in December but up from a low of 2% in March 2023. Meanwhile, expected credit conditions declined to -7% in April, the lowest reading since September, from -4% in March; these readings were above a low of -11% in November 2023.

On the labor front, forty-seven percent of respondents reported that qualified workers to fill job openings were hard to find in April, unchanged from 47% in March. These numbers were below their recent high of 56% in August, a high of 57% in September 2023, and a peak of 62% in September 2021. A net 13% planned to increase employment in April, slightly up from 12% in March; it was below a high of 26% in May 2022 and a peak of 32% in August 2021. Notably, 34% reported positions not able to be filled in April, down from 40% in March and the lowest reading since September; these figures remained below a high of 51% in May 2022.

Overall earnings trends had remained in negative territory since December 2019. The figure improved to -21% in April, still a poor reading, following a four-point drop to -28% in March. These readings were up from a low of -37% in August; nevertheless, having remained below a high of -18% in March 2023 and a high of -5% in June 2021.

On the pricing front, inflation pressures, while trending down, remained at an inflationary level. The net percent of firms raising their average selling prices slipped to 25% in April, the lowest reading since January, after a six-point decline to 26% in March. These numbers were virtually unchanged from 25% in April 2024 but well below a high of 66% in March 2022. The percentage planning to raise prices eased to a three-month-low 28% in April following a one-point increase to 30% in March; these figures were above 26% in April 2024 but below a high of 33% in March 2024 and a high of 52% in March 2022.

Wage inflation, while relatively high, eased somewhat in the April survey. A net 33% of respondents raised compensation during the last three months, down from 38% reported in the March survey and the same reading as in February and January. It was down from a high of 46% in February 2023 and a peak of 50% in January 2022. A net 17% of firms planned to raise worker compensation in the next three months, down from 19% reported in March and the lowest reading since March 2021; these numbers were below a high of 28% in November, a high of 30% in November 2023, and a high of 32% in October 2022.

The quality of labor was reported as the single most important problem facing small businesses, as reported by 19% of NFIB members in April, March, and February. Taxes were reported as the next most important problem, with 16% reported in April vs. 18% in March. Inflation continued to be a problem facing small businesses, as reported by 14% in April; the figure was down from 16% in March and a peak of 37% in July 2022. Other concerns (in April vs. March) included insurance cost/availability (10% vs. 8%), poor sales (9% vs. 9%), government requirements (9% vs. 8%), the cost of labor (8% vs. 11%), and competition from large businesses (7% vs. 6%).

According to the Small Business Administration, there are 33 million small businesses in the United States, which employ 62 million workers. The NFIB surveys anywhere from 500 to 2000 respondents each month and the typical firm employs 10 people and reports gross sales of about $500,000 a year. The NFIB figures can be found in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

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- Apr. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index down 1.6 pts. to 95.8; the fourth straight m/m fall.
- Uncertainty Index down 4 pts. to 92, the lowest since Dec.
- Expectations for economy down 6 pts. to 15%, the lowest since Oct.
- Expected real sales down 4 pts. to -1%, the first negative reading since Oct.
- Net percent of firms raising avg. selling prices down 1 pt. to a 3-month-low 25%.
- Quality of labor (19%), taxes (16%), and inflation (14%) are the top three business concerns.

U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Falls to a Six-month Low in April Amid Continued Uncertainty

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Retail gasoline prices for all grades fell to an average $3.25 per gallon (-12.9% y/y) in the week ended May 12 after rising to $3.27 in the previous week, but	 remained above their low of $3.13 in the week of December 9. An earlier high was $3.79 in the week ending April 22, 2024. The all-time high of $5.11 occurred in the week ending June 13, 2022. The retail price for on-highway diesel fuel declined to $3.48 per gallon (-9.7% y/y) in the week of May 12 from $3.50 in the prior week. The latest diesel price stood well below a high of $4.63 in the week ending September 18, 2023 and a peak of $5.81 in the week ending June 20, 2022.

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil at $59.04 per barrel (-25.9% y/y) in the week ended May 9 compared to $59.64 per barrel in the prior week. Prices remained below a high of $91.45 in the week of September 29, 2023. The cost of crude oil peaked at $120.46 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $61.95 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude oil declined to $62.29 per barrel (-24.9% y/y) in the week of May 9 from $63.50 in the previous week. Prices remained well below a recent high of $95.61 in the week of September 29, 2023 and compared to a peak of $127.40 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday the price was $65.28 per barrel.

Natural gas prices edged up to an average $3.19 per mmbtu (59.5% y/y) in the week ended May 9, after improving to $3.09/mmbtu in the prior week. Prices have been well below earlier highs for four weeks but were well above a low of $1.40/mmbtu in the week of March 15, 2024. Prices peaked at $9.56/mmbtu in the week of August 26, 2022. Yesterday’s price was $3.19/mmbtu.

Gasoline demand rose 3.5% y/y in the four weeks ending May 2 following a 3.2% y/y rise in the prior four weeks. Demand for all petroleum products eased 0.6% y/y in the four weeks ending May 2 after a 0.3% y/y rise in the previous four-week period. Crude oil input to refineries rose 0.4% y/y in the four weeks ending May 2 after a 0.1% y/y slip in the prior four weeks.

Gasoline inventories fell 1.0% y/y in the week ending May 2 after a 0.7% y/y fall in the week ending April 25. Residual fuel oil inventories fell 10.9% y/y in the week of May 2, after an 18.7% y/y fall in the prior week. Crude oil inventories rose 1.3% y/y in the week of May 2 after a 1.4% y/y rise in the previous week.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories fell w/w to 25.3 days in the week of May 2 from 25.5 days in the prior. The recent low was 22.9 days in the week of November 8. The supply of crude oil eased w/w to 27.6 days in the week of May 2 from 27.9 days in the prior week, and remained below a high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** & **USENERGY** database.

- Gasoline prices decline.
- Crude oil prices ease.
- Natural gas costs rise.

U.S. Energy Prices Are Mixed in Latest Week

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Forecasting is an ordinary part of economic analysis. And to a large extent, it gets taken for granted as we realize different people are making different forecasts and that there always are differences. We come to accept that, and we realize that there may be some economists who are more optimistic and some who are more pessimistic, some who favor growth more, some who fear inflation more. There are almost always some sorts of biases involved when people make forecasts simply because it's very hard to eliminate bias completely no matter how hard an economist tries to be objective. At the very least, economists usually feel somewhat bound by the previous forecast that they made in order to provide some stability in the guidance that they present.

**The ZEW Forecasts**
In this month’s ZEW survey, there is an example of this with what I consider to be somewhat quizzical forecasts being offered by the ZEW financial experts, who are largely European experts, at a time that the United States is threatening tariffs. Now this, of course, makes the U.S. the aggressor in this campaign and according to the ZEW experts the U.S. is going to suffer from this more than European economies. However, the U.S. is much less trade-dependent than Europe and certainly far less dependent than Germany which is one of the most trade-dependent large, advanced economies in the world. We measure trade dependency by looking at exports plus imports as a percentage of GDP. By this measure, trade-dependency is around 90% to 95% of for Germany; U.S. dependency is around 30% to 35%. The ZEW experts see the tariff situation making the U.S. economy much worse off than the European or the German economy- why?

**Tariff impact**
To put this in perspective, in the U.S., high tariffs, if they are binding, will cause imported goods to be more expensive. U.S. firms and consumers will have the choice of deciding whether they want to pay the higher costs to consume those items or to replace them in consumption or their production process. In the case of consumers, it's probably easier because a consumer can switch from an expensive French champagne to a less expensive but still quite good California sparkling wine or Chardonnay- or pay the higher price and enjoy French champaign! However, if U.S. consumers shift, that is going to leave France with a lot of unsold champagne and they need to sell it someplace else and that's a problem since the U.S. is a huge high-income market; that’s the reason that it's sought after by so many countries who export to the United States. U.S. consumers may choose to be satisfied with a different product. In this example the French, or it could be the Germans, or anyone whose exports are distained because of higher prices, might find that they have goods piling up in the shelves that they are not selling. This could cause an unemployment problem that could really snowball- a more severe problem than drinking Chardonnay instead of French champaign! 

**The U.S. side**
On the U.S. side, if people continue to buy these goods, the U.S. will have more inflation that may cause the Fed to stop cutting rates. The Fed might even raise rates, and this could slow the economy down. However, as we know, tariffs are one-time increase in the price level and it's only if the Fed runs ‘bad monetary policy’ that the price bump caused by the tariffs would become inflation… inflation is a persisting increase in prices.

**The new ZEW in May**
In this new survey, we see the economic situation in May improving relatively substantially in the euro area, as well as worsening slightly in the U.S. and in Germany. We see macroeconomic expectations sharply higher in Germany in May and while they also improve substantially in the U.S., the U.S. is left with economic expectations that are weaker less than 5% of the time, while German macroeconomic expectations are above their historic median (above a ranking of 50%).

**Got inflation?**
Inflation expectations are falling in the euro area in May and in Germany and, while they edged slightly lower in the U.S., they rank very high - higher only 8% of the time in the U.S. Whereas inflation expectations are lower only about 20% of the time in the euro area and in Germany. What's interesting, is that we see a big decline in inflation expectations in the euro area and in Germany despite the fact that growth conditions either improve or hardly unchanged and macro-expectations for Germany get sharply higher and yet inflation is improving. This has to be viewed as a curiosity.

**Interest rates**
Short-term rate expectations in the euro area are more negative than they are in the U.S. with both the euro area and the U.S. having low rank standings for short-term interest rate expectations. Long-term rate expectations in Germany and the U.S. show a decline both in Germany and in the U.S., but the German rank-standing is at its 15th percentile and the U.S. standings in its 36th percentile. That, at least, matches with the inflation expectations outlook.

Through all this, stock markets are improving in May compared to April. The European stock market and the German market are doing better than they are than the U.S. on a queue standing basis. And the dollar is expected to get weaker.

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**Forecasts and contradictions**
It seems to me there are a lot of contradictions in these scenarios or forecasts and the Europeans are somewhat angry at the U.S. for having done what it did, and they are projecting that the U.S. will suffer a worse consequence basically because they don't like what the U.S. is doing. However, based on trade dependency, it would seem to me that Europe is far more at risk of an ugly outcome: its exports are at greater risk compared to U.S. imports being at greater risk. One mitigating factor, of course, is that many things have changed as the U.S. has made alterations on the geopolitical front by forcing Europe to accept a larger role in NATO, defending itself. This will increase military expenditure and will help to sustain economic growth in Europe in the face of whatever shock may come on the tariff side. However, at this time, there isn't that much of a defense industry in Europe to serve the build-up that they need, if they source goods out of the U.S. that's not going to stimulate European growth very much. However, it's likely that Europe will try to develop more of a domestic arms industry although it’s going to have to weigh that against the need to beef up armaments in the short-run.

**Lots of change afoot**
There's a lot of change afoot, and we see a lot of forecasts being made both by Europeans and by people in the U.S. that reflect the heavy dose of what they want to see rather than what they're probably going to see. A lot of that analysis swirls around the belief that free trade is something sacred that's being violated by tariffs and therefore these violations are going to create a lot of bad events. That viewpoint, of course, ignores the many ways in which free trade is already violated. And, of course, another set of pre-existing beliefs simply sees everything that Donald Trump does as wrong. Wishing or even hating is no way to run a forecasting exercise and so I've cautioned that people beware about the conclusions they draw especially in the wake of the tariff news which now has the U.S.-China animosity set aside and has some temporary abeyance of other tariffs in progress. The problem with being an economist is that you have to have a forecast, and you have to explain it, and make it public, and, of course, once you do that, if the facts suddenly change, you are left either having to keep your forecast (and hoping…) or having to embarrass yourself by shifting your forecast back to where it was before things changed. And this reflects where we are right now. There were a number of analyses that emerged about how we would have inflation, or we would have recession because these tariffs were huge and terrible and now it's the tariffs get peeled back and we see there's going to be a more reasoned approach. But there is still no permanence. Yet, economists with forecasts out there are gradually looking for a diplomatic way to soften some of the forecasts they have made without looking like a bobble-head doll on a cars dashboard as it encounters a bumping road. This also goes for some of the analysis of reports that we see as the Wall Street Journal's first take on today's CPI report in the U.S. was that there was evidence of tariff inflation although if you read the report the WSJ talks about how it was the best year-over-year inflation rate that we had seen in quite some time and up by only 0.2% month-to-month. So, which is it? When it's hard to make the headline of a report match the content of the story that it represents, you know there's something else going on. So be careful what you read and be more careful what you believe. There is a lot of bias and ideology out there. It is a lot just because we are human- but not all of it.

ZEW Experts Shift Forecasts Less Pessimistic on Europe

Tian Yong Woon

This week, we focus on US-China trade developments in light of the economies’ joint 90-day tariff pause announcement. The extent of the interim tariff cuts has surpassed investors’ expectations. As such, the cuts have understandably boosted sentiment in Chinese equity markets (chart 1), though sentiment had already been buoyed by the increasingly conciliatory tone in US-China communications leading up to the announcement. The tariff cuts are a significant reprieve for both economies. The US is likely to see reduced price pressures on producers and consumers in the near term, while China stands to gain from a temporary easing of growth drags amid ongoing domestic challenges (chart 2).

Turning to the hard numbers, China’s April trade readings were relatively resilient, partly due to significant front-loading ahead of the prior US-imposed 145% tariffs taking effect (chart 3). As shown in chart 4, sharp declines in shipments to the US were more than offset by rising exports to Asian partners, including ASEAN, India, and Taiwan. Looking ahead, with the tariff pause beginning around mid-May, we may not see a full month’s data capturing trade responses to the earlier steep tariffs.

Next, we turn to how investors and analysts are responding. In the May survey, our Blue Chip panellists continued to mark down growth forecasts across several economies relative to end-2024 expectations (chart 5). At the same time, they raised US inflation forecasts and lowered China inflation forecasts (chart 6). However, these forecasts are likely to see favourable revisions in future surveys—barring new adverse developments—especially in light of this week’s positive news.

**Latest US-China trade developments**
Financial market sentiment has remained fairly buoyant despite the flare-up in US-China trade tensions in April. Recent messaging from both sides has moved away from the fiery rhetoric of previous months, adopting a more conciliatory tone aimed at de-escalating rather than intensifying frictions. Encouragingly, developments earlier this week reinforced this shift: the US and China issued a joint statement agreeing to a 90-day cooling-off period as they pursue trade talks following a relationship “reset.” During this time, the US will reportedly reduce its 145% tariffs on Chinese imports to 30% by May 14, while China will lower its 125% tariffs on US imports to 10%. Markets have understandably reacted positively, as seen in chart 1, with this move representing a significant rollback of mutual tariffs and bringing rates much closer to their pre–“Liberation Day” baseline. As a result, the growth-dampening effects from elevated tariffs are now considerably more muted—though it is worth noting that these measures remain temporary.

250513T1.jpg

The latest developments are indeed cause for optimism, as neither the US nor China stood to benefit from maintaining steep, mutually applied tariffs. For China, this short-term reprieve will help ease what would have been another significant growth headwind, compounding an already challenging set of domestic issues. Among these, China continues to struggle with persistently low inflation—likely stemming from weak demand and a long-standing problem of excess supply, both of which have contributed to downward pressure on prices. This is particularly evident in producer prices, which have been falling for years now, as shown in chart 2. These underlying drivers likely explain why our Blue Chip survey panellists continue to expect weak price pressures in China this year—a topic discussed in more detail later. Also, the sustained price decline not only highlights China's oversupply problem but has also provoked frustration among trading partners who had to absorb the effects.

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**First round effects of US tariffs on China**
Moving next to initial hard numbers reflecting the effects of the US' 145% tariffs before the announced pause, China’s April trade data were released last week. Exports rose a strong 8.1% y/y, as shown in chart 3—well above expectations. This eased initial concerns that the US-imposed tariffs would severely hit trade. While the April export print beat forecasts, it was driven by several underlying factors. A key contributor was significant front-loading by importers ahead of the tariff implementation in mid-April, which likely offset the drop in shipments that followed. As a result, though April’s data capture the early impact of the steep US tariffs, they also reflect a surge in pre-tariff activity, making the figures somewhat noisy. On the import side, shipments to China declined modestly, extending the recent trend of weak import growth. Although the drop was less severe than expected, continued weakness in imports may reflect subdued domestic demand—a concerning signal.

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A closer look at the April data (chart 4) shows that China’s stronger-than-expected export performance was largely driven by shipments to ASEAN economies, India, and Taiwan, where exports posted double-digit y/y growth. This surge reflects several dynamics. First, it underscores the deep integration of regional supply chains and the critical role of Chinese inputs in broader manufacturing processes. Second, it points to these economies’ capacity to absorb some of China’s excess capacity—diverted from the US, which has become a less viable destination due to steep tariffs. However, it remains uncertain whether these markets can sustainably absorb such redirected trade flows. Exports to the EU and Japan also grew in April, though at a more modest pace. Overall, the surge in shipments to regional and European partners more than offset the sharp 21% y/y drop in exports to the US.

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**May Blue Chip survey outlook**
Next, we turn to investor and analyst expectations for global growth amid the seemingly unrelenting stream of trade developments between the US and its trading partners. The latest Blue Chip survey results continue to paint a bleak picture for global growth, with panellists having sharply downgraded their forecasts in the May survey compared to those expressed in December last year, as shown in chart 5. However, given the recent and substantial de-escalation in US-China trade tensions—and barring any new growth-negative developments—panellists may soon be compelled to revise their outlooks upward. Notably, the May survey did not capture this week’s positive trade breakthrough, and a significant portion of the tariff burden has now been temporarily lifted from both economies.

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Lastly, we examine investor and analyst expectations for inflation in light of US-China trade developments prior to this week’s positive news. Understandably, our Blue Chip panellists had significantly revised upward their inflation outlook for the US, given the potentially inflationary effects of the previously announced tariffs. In contrast, the inflation outlook for China has become increasingly pessimistic, largely due to the structural factors discussed in earlier sections. However, with the latest de-escalation in US-China trade tensions, expectations for US inflation—and even those for some other economies—now stand to be revised downward. Whether expectations for Chinese inflation can be meaningfully adjusted upward remains uncertain. Looking further ahead, attention will also turn to US President Trump’s other 90-day pause, specifically concerning his “reciprocal” tariffs on economies other than China. The outcome of these trade discussions will be critical in determining the trajectory of future inflation expectations.

Economy in Brief: 2008

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U.S. Claims For Jobless Insurance Highest Since 1992

UK's CBI Survey of Industry

U.S. Housing Starts At Record Low in October

U.S. CPI Fell A Record 1.0% and Core Prices Declined As Well

U.S. CPI Fell A Record 1.0% and Core Prices Declined As Well

U.S. Home Builders' Survey Lower Still

Inflation in the U.K. Declines in October

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