Global| Nov 19 2008U.S. Housing Starts At Record Low in October
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Housing starts fell to a record low last month. At 791,000 units (SAAR), the level was the lowest in the series' history which dates back to 1959. The 4.5% decline followed a revised 3.0% September drop that was slightly shallower [...]
Housing starts fell to a record low last month. At 791,000 units (SAAR), the level was the lowest in the series' history which dates back to 1959. The 4.5% decline followed a revised 3.0% September drop that was slightly shallower than reported initially. Consensus expectations had been for 780,000 starts.
Starts of single-family homes fell another 3.3% to 531,000 units, their lowest level since late-1981. Since their peak in early 2006, single-family starts are down by roughly two-thirds. Permits to build single family homes also fell 14.5% (-43.3% y/y) to 460,000, their lowest since the 1981-82 recession.
Starts began 4Q down 11.9% from the 3Q average. During the last ten years there has been an 84% correlation between the q/q change in single-family starts and their contribution to quarterly GDP growth.
October multi-family starts fell 6.8% from September and they are down by one-third from last year.
By region, October starts of single-family units in the Northeast were unchanged m/m but down 40.6% y/y. In the Midwest starts rose 11.5% but they remained 42.9% lower than last October. In the South single-family starts fell a hard 10.5% (-40.6% y/y) to their lowest since 1990 while in the West starts ticked up 1.7% (-35.1% y/y) after a 13.9% September decline.
Today's speech Monetary Policy and Asset Prices Revisited by Fed Vice-Chairman Donald L. Kohn can be found here.
| Housing Starts (000s, SAAR) | October | September | August | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 791 | 828 | 854 | -38.0% | 1,341 | 1,812 | 2,073 |
| Single-Family | 531 | 549 | 615 | -39.9 | 1,034 | 1,474 | 1,719 |
| Multi-Family | 260 | 279 | 239 | -33.5 | 307 | 338 | 354 |
| Building Permits | 708 | 805 | 857 | -40.1 | 1,389 | 1,844 | 2,160 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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