Global| Nov 19 2008UK's CBI Survey of Industry
Summary
UK orders rebounded ever so slightly from last month’s extreme weakness and still reside in the bottom 2% of their range since about 2000. Export orders have had the same response, making a token bounce in November. Stocks of finished [...]
UK orders rebounded ever so slightly from last month’s extreme
weakness and still reside in the bottom 2% of their range since about
2000. Export orders have had the same response, making a token bounce
in November. Stocks of finished goods are rated as at their highest
levels indicating a problem build up with orders falling so fast.
Not surprisingly output volume for the next 3-months is rated
at a net of -42 the weakest reading on record. Prices are still posted
to make gains with a net +10 reading that is still in the top 21% of
its range. So inflation pressures are proving sticky in the face of
horrific weakness. The NTC (Markit) diffusion survey for Nov is not
quite ready but its low readings essentially confirms the deteriorating
picture from the CBI.
| UK Industrial volume data CBI Survey | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reported: | Nov 08 |
Oct 08 |
Sep 08 |
Aug 08 |
Jul 08 |
12MO Avg | Pcntle | Max | Min | Range |
| Total Orders | -38 | -39 | -26 | -13 | -8 | -4 | 2% | 9 | -40 | 49 |
| Export Orders | -31 | -32 | -25 | -9 | -7 | -7 | 17% | 3 | -39 | 42 |
| Stocks: FinGds | 25 | 24 | 21 | 18 | 13 | 13 | 100% | 24 | -2 | 26 |
| Looking ahead | ||||||||||
| Output Volume: Nxt 3M | -42 | -31 | -16 | -13 | -7 | 1 | 0% | 28 | -31 | 59 |
| Avg Prices 4Nxt 3m | 10 | 23 | 31 | 34 | 28 | 25 | 79% | 34 | -19 | 53 |
| From end 2000 | ||||||||||
| Compare to CIPS MFG | ||||||||||
| Oct 08 |
Sep 08 |
Aug 08 |
Jul 08 |
12MO Avg | Pcntle | Max | Min | Range | ||
| UK MFG | 41.49 | 41.15 | 45.28 | 44.37 | 48.05 | 2% | 56.3 | 41.15 | 15 | |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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