- Recent job growth reduced by fewer factory & government jobs.
- Earnings gain remains steady y/y.
- Jobless rate reverses June decline.
USA| Aug 01 2025U.S. Employment Report Shows Weakness in July, While Revisions Reduce Earlier Gains; Jobless Rate Picks Up
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Aug 01 2025U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Rebound in July
- Both light truck and auto sales recover.
- Domestic and imports each increase.
- Imports' market share steadies.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Aug 01 2025U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI Contracts in July to a Nine-Month Low
- 48.0 in July vs. 49.0 in June; the fifth consecutive month of contraction.
- Production (51.4) expands to a six-month high.
- New orders (47.1) contract for the sixth successive month.
- Employment (43.4) contracts to the lowest level since June ’20.
- Prices Index (64.8) indicates prices rise for the 10th straight month; exports & imports contracting.
USA| Aug 01 2025U.S. Construction: Sluggish in June
- Private building, both residential and nonresidential, drifting lower.
- Public construction hesitating after two strong years.
Global| Aug 01 2025Manufacturing PMIs Rank Low and Show Ongoing Weakness
Manufacturing PMIs in the S&P framework were mixed in July. However, the median reading edged slightly higher rising to 48.6 in July from 48.5 in June. But both of these are significantly weaker than the 49.1 reading in May. Manufacturing continues to post PMI readings that are below 50 indicating sector contraction on a fairly broad basis in July among the 17 reporting countries in the table plus the euro area. Only India and Vietnam reported PMI readings above 50 indicating sector expansion in July. In June, three of these jurisdictions showed readings above 50; in May, only three had readings above 50 as well. It remains a difficult time for manufacturing globally.
The readings for the manufacturing PMIs also show slippage in the medians from 12-months to six-months to three-months. The 12-month median is 49.2, the six-month median at 48.8, and the three-month median at 48.7. The bottom line is that most manufacturing sectors show contraction, and the contractions are generally getting slightly worse.
However, on an individual basis over three months about two-thirds of the reporters showed an improvement. Over six months just under 40% showed improvement and over a year about 44% of them showed improvement compared to the year before. Only the three-month versus six-month comparison shows a majority of reporters indicating better performance in July.
The ranked or queue standings metrics that place these individual readings for July in their queue of data over the last 4 ½ years, show standings above 50% which put the individual readings above their medians for this period. And only six of these eighteen reporting jurisdictions sported readings above 50%. Those were for the euro area, Germany, France, and India. India has a rating well above 50% at its 96th percentile; Malaysia has a reading above 50% and Vietnam has a reading well above 50% at its 74th percentile.
Global| Jul 31 2025Charts of the Week: Markets Rally, Risks Linger
Financial markets have performed well in recent weeks, lifted by stronger data, moderating inflation, and renewed soft landing hopes. Equities have pushed higher, volatility has eased, and credit markets have firmed. While economic policy uncertainty remains elevated, it is showing signs of normalising alongside greater clarity on US trade policy (chart 1). The US dollar, however, remains under pressure amid concerns about Fed independence and broader policy credibility (chart 2). The Fed’s decision on July 30th to leave policy on hold, despite two dissenting votes in favour of a cut, arguably did little to ease those concerns. Recent US trade agreements—particularly with Japan and Europe—have boosted sentiment, though questions linger over implementation. In Japan, trade policy uncertainty has surged amid vague deal terms, even as exports to the US have weakened (chart 3). In the euro area, M3 growth slowed in June as private credit softened, casting doubt on the durability of recent upside surprises (chart 4). UK retail data signal a sharp drop in consumer activity, consistent with past recessions (chart 5), and the change in US house prices has turned negative on a three-month basis—often a warning sign of broader economic weakness (chart 6). Overall, while market sentiment has improved, risks tied to credit, demand, and housing persist.
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
- Core price increase is strongest in four months.
- Real spending moves slightly higher.
- Real disposable income holds steady along with personal savings rate.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jul 31 2025Growth of U.S. Employment Cost Index Unchanged in Q2
- Compensation grew 0.9 q/q in Q2, the same pace as in both Q1 and Q4 2024.
- Wage growth picked up to 1.0% q/q while benefits slowed to 0.7% q/q after Q1 surge.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
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