Tom Moeller

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081204d.jpg" width="353">
Factory inventories dropped again in October. The 0.6% m/m decline followed a 0.8% slide during the month prior. They were the first back-to-back monthly declines since 2003. Inventories in the transportation sector have been rising as production cutbacks have not kept pace with lower demand. Less the transportation sector, inventories fell 1.0% after a 0.9% September decline.
Inventories of transportation equipment rose 1.6% (15.1% y/y) due to the 1.8% backup in automobile inventories (0.7% y/y) which followed a 2.6% September jump. Light truck inventories also rose 1.6% but they were off by nearly one quarter from last October. Growth in inventories of commercial aircraft continued to dominate the figures, however, and they rose 2.8% during October and they&#39;re up by more than one-third y/y. Electrical equipment &amp; appliance inventories fell 0.7% and reversed a like increase during September (+5.1% y/y) while machinery inventories rose a firm 0.2% (5.5% y/y).
Total factory orders fell 5.1% during October which was larger than Consensus expectations for a 3.9% drop. The decline reflected a 6.9% plummet in durable goods orders which was a slightly steeper decline than indicated in the advance report. Orders were pulled lower by an 11.2% decline in new orders for transportation equipment.
Factory shipments dropped 3.2%, about the same as reported for September. Shipments of transportation equipment fell 5.2% as commercial aircraft shipments plunged 10.1% (-22.1% y/y). Shipments of electrical equipment also were weak and they posted a 4.6% (-1.2% y/y) decline. Electronic computer shipments fell for the third straight month (-1.8% y/y) and shipments of furniture &amp; related products fell an even harder 4.1% (-11.3% y/y). Shipments from petroleum refineries were quite weak last month (-13.0%) as oil prices fell and they are off 4.1% y/y.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED01/@ED0101/@ED01016/@ED01016.HTM">Factory Survey</a> (NAICS, %)</th>
<th scope="col">October</th>
<th scope="col">September</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Inventories</td>
<td>-0.6</td>
<td>-0.8</td>
<td>6.2</td>
<td>3.7</td>
<td>6.4</td>
<td>8.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Excluding Transportation</td>
<td>-1.0</td>
<td>-0.9</td>
<td>4.6</td>
<td>2.7</td>
<td>7.9</td>
<td>8.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">New Orders</td>
<td>-5.1</td>
<td>-3.1</td>
<td>-5.3</td>
<td>1.9</td>
<td>6.2</td>
<td>11.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Excluding Transportation</td>
<td>-4.2</td>
<td>-4.3</td>
<td>-2.5</td>
<td>1.2</td>
<td>7.4</td>
<td>11.7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Shipments</td>
<td>-3.2</td>
<td>-3.1</td>
<td>-2.3</td>
<td>1.2</td>
<td>5.9</td>
<td>10.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Excluding Transportation</td>
<td>-2.9</td>
<td>-3.8</td>
<td>-0.3</td>
<td>1.5</td>
<td>6.7</td>
<td>11.4</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Unfilled Orders</td>
<td>-0.6</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>10.0</td>
<td>17.1</td>
<td>15.3</td>
<td>15.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Excluding Transportation</td>
<td>-1.6</td>
<td>-0.6</td>
<td>5.2</td>
<td>8.2</td>
<td>16.0</td>
<td>9.2</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Factory inventories dropped again in October. The 0.6% m/m decline followed a 0.8% slide during the month prior. They were the first back-to-back monthly declines since 2003. Inventories in the transportation sector have been rising [...]

U.S. Factory Inventories Fell Again

Robert Brusca

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081204c.jpg" width="353">
The details of EMU GDP show that the downfall to growth in the e-zone has been trade. GDP is falling at a 0.8% annual rate in Q3 as the trade gap widened by &#128;10bln in Q3. Moreover, indicators for Q4 are still pointing to further weakening. Private consumption is erratic but the Yr/Yr growth rates show it has slowed to a standstill. Public consumption continues to grow at a nearly 2.5% pace. Spending on capital formation has steadily decelerated and now runs at a Yr/Yr pace of less than 1%, just like GDP. Export and import growth both have moderated. But import growth is a bit faster than export growth, spurting in Q3, leading to an expansion in the trade deficit and a reduction in GDP growth. 
The problem that confronts EMU is that domestic demand is faltering with its Yr/Yr rate of growth at 0.6% compared to 2.1% at the end of 2007. At the same time international sources of growth are tailing as exports are up at a 2.4% pace Yr/Yr compared to a five year average rate of growth of 5.9%. EMU is being pinched between weak domestic and weak foreign demand. The ECB, Bank of England and Bank of Sweden rate cuts will help to stimulate Europe in general. But the global slowdown is in gear and it will run its course. The ECB rate cuts and the slightly weaker Euro will help to cushion the blow. But both interest rates and foreign exchange rates take some time to have an impact. Moreover, with world demand low, no country is going to do very well with its export growth regardless of currency levels. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
 European GDP EU-15
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td colspan="3"> Consumption</td>
<td> Capital</td>
<td colspan="3"> Trade Domestic</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td> GDP</td>
<td> Private</td>
<td> Public</td>
<td> Formation</td>
<td> X-M:lbns E</td>
<td> Exports</td>
<td> Imports</td>
<td> Demand</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="9"> % change Q/Q (saar) ; X-M is Q/Q change in Blns of euros</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"> Q3-08</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>-10.9</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>6.8%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"> Q2-08</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>-6.0%</td>
<td>2.5</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>-1.6%</td>
<td>-1.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"> Q1-08</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>9.9%</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td>7.1%</td>
<td>6.4%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"> Q4-07</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>-2.4%</td>
<td>6.4</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>-1.2%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="9"> % change Yr/Yr; X-M is Yr/Yr change in Gap in Blns of euros</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"> Q3-08</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"> Q2-08</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>8.2</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"> Q1-08</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>9.6</td>
<td>5.3%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"> Q4-07</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>2.1</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"> 5-Yrs</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>1.8</td>
<td>5.9%</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The details of EMU GDP show that the downfall to growth in the e-zone has been trade. GDP is falling at a 0.8% annual rate in Q3 as the trade gap widened by 10bln in Q3. Moreover, indicators for Q4 are still pointing to further [...]

EMU GDP Confirmed At -0.8% (Saar) In 2008-Q4

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081204a.jpg" width="353">
For the second consecutive week, initial claims for unemployment insurance fell. Nevertheless, claims remained near their highest level since the last recession. The 21,000 drop to 509,000 followed a little-revised 13,000 decline during the prior week. Still, claims for all of last month rose 9.8% from the October average.
Expectations had been for claims last week of 535,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims rose to this cycle&#39;s high of 524,500 (54.3% y/y).<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081204b.jpg" width="353">
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending November 22 were in California (+10,882), Ohio (+6,658), Michigan (+6,611), Indiana (+6,501), and Missouri (+5,820), while the largest decreases were in Nebraska (-72), Utah (-37), the Virgin Islands (-8), and North Dakota (-4).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance during the week of November 22 rose 89,000 after the prior week&#39;s revised 18,000 decline. The four-week average of continuing claims rose to a new cycle high of 4,001,750, the highest since 1982. Continuing claims provide some indication of workers&#39; ability to find employment and they lag the initial claims figures by one week.
The insured rate of unemployment rose to a new cycle high of 3.1%. The Commerce Department indicated the highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending November 15 were in Puerto Rico (5.2 percent), Oregon (4.5), Michigan (4.0), Nevada (4.0), Alaska (3.9), California (3.8), Pennsylvania (3.8), Idaho (3.7), New Jersey (3.7), and South Carolina (3.6).
The latest Beige Book from the Federal Reserve covering regional economic conditions can be found <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/FOMC/BeigeBook/2008/20081203/fullreport20081203.pdf">here</a>.
The Community Reinvestment Act and the Recent Mortgage Crisis is yesterday&#39;s speech by Fed GovernorRandall S. Kroszner it is available <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/kroszner20081203a.htm">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a>&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">11/29/08</th>
<th scope="col">11/22/08</th>
<th scope="col">11/15/08</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>509</td>
<td>530</td>
<td>543</td>
<td>49.7%</td>
<td>322</td>
<td>313</td>
<td>331</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>4,087</td>
<td>3,998</td>
<td>56.5%</td>
<td>2,552</td>
<td>2,459</td>
<td>2,662</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

For the second consecutive week, initial claims for unemployment insurance fell. Nevertheless, claims remained near their highest level since the last recession. The 21,000 drop to 509,000 followed a little-revised 13,000 decline [...]

U.S. Weekly Claims For Jobless Insurance Fell, But Month's Level Still High

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081204a.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
For the second consecutive week, initial claims for
unemployment insurance fell. Nevertheless, claims remained near their
highest level since the last recession. The 21,000 drop to 509,000
followed a little-revised 13,000 decline during the prior week. Still,
claims for all of last month rose 9.8% from the October average.
Expectations had been for claims last week of 535,000. The
four-week moving average of initial claims rose to this cycle's high of
524,500 (54.3% y/y).<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081204b.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending
November 22 were in California (+10,882), Ohio (+6,658), Michigan
(+6,611), Indiana (+6,501), and Missouri (+5,820), while the largest
decreases were in Nebraska (-72), Utah (-37), the Virgin Islands (-8),
and North Dakota (-4).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance during the week
of November 22 rose 89,000 after the prior week's revised 18,000
decline. The four-week average of continuing claims rose to a new cycle
high of 4,001,750, the highest since 1982.
Continuing claims provide some indication of workers' ability to find
employment and they lag the initial claims figures by one week.
The insured rate of unemployment rose to a new cycle high of
3.1%. The Commerce Department indicated the highest insured
unemployment rates in the week ending November 15 were in Puerto Rico
(5.2 percent), Oregon (4.5), Michigan (4.0), Nevada (4.0), Alaska
(3.9), California (3.8), Pennsylvania (3.8), Idaho (3.7), New Jersey
(3.7), and South Carolina (3.6).
The latest Beige Book from the Federal
Reserve covering regional economic conditions can be found <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/FOMC/BeigeBook/2008/20081203/fullreport20081203.pdf">here</a>.
The Community Reinvestment Act and the Recent
Mortgage Crisis is yesterday's speech by Fed GovernorRandall
S. Kroszner it is available <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/kroszner20081203a.htm">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment
Insurance (000s)</a>&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">11/29/08</th>
<th scope="col">11/22/08</th>
<th scope="col">11/15/08</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>509</td>
<td>530</td>
<td>543</td>
<td>49.7%</td>
<td>322</td>
<td>313</td>
<td>331</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>4,087</td>
<td>3,998</td>
<td>56.5%</td>
<td>2,552</td>
<td>2,459</td>
<td>2,662</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Factory Inventories Fell Again 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom
Moeller</a> December 4, 2008


<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081204d.jpg" align="left" border="0">
Factory inventories dropped again in October. The 0.6% m/m
decline followed a 0.8% slide during the month prior. They were the
first back-to-back monthly declines since 2003. Inventories in the
transportation sector have been rising as production cutbacks have not
kept pace with lower demand. Less the transportation sector,
inventories fell 1.0% after a 0.9% September decline.
Inventories of transportation equipment rose 1.6% (15.1% y/y)
due to the 1.8% backup in automobile inventories (0.7% y/y) which
followed a 2.6% September jump. Light truck inventories also rose 1.6%
but they were off by nearly one quarter from last October. Growth in
inventories of commercial aircraft continued to dominate the figures,
however, and they rose 2.8% during October and they're up by more than
one-third y/y. Electrical equipment &amp; appliance inventories
fell 0.7% and reversed a like increase during September (+5.1% y/y)
while machinery inventories rose a firm 0.2% (5.5% y/y).
Total factory orders fell 5.1% during October which was larger
than Consensus expectations for a 3.9% drop. The decline reflected a
6.9% plummet in durable goods orders which was a slightly steeper
decline than indicated in the advance report. Orders were pulled lower
by an 11.2% decline in new orders for transportation equipment.
Factory shipments dropped 3.2%, about the same as reported for
September. Shipments of transportation equipment fell 5.2% as
commercial aircraft shipments plunged 10.1% (-22.1% y/y). Shipments of
electrical equipment also were weak and they posted a 4.6% (-1.2% y/y)
decline. Electronic computer shipments fell for the third straight
month (-1.8% y/y) and shipments of furniture &amp; related products
fell an even harder 4.1% (-11.3% y/y). Shipments from petroleum
refineries were quite weak last month (-13.0%) as oil prices fell and
they are off 4.1% y/y.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED01/@ED0101/@ED01016/@ED01016.HTM">Factory
Survey</a> (NAICS, %)</th>
<th scope="col">October</th>
<th scope="col">September</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Inventories</td>
<td>-0.6</td>
<td>-0.8</td>
<td>6.2</td>
<td>3.7</td>
<td>6.4</td>
<td>8.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Excluding
Transportation</td>
<td>-1.0</td>
<td>-0.9</td>
<td>4.6</td>
<td>2.7</td>
<td>7.9</td>
<td>8.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">New Orders</td>
<td>-5.1</td>
<td>-3.1</td>
<td>-5.3</td>
<td>1.9</td>
<td>6.2</td>
<td>11.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Excluding
Transportation</td>
<td>-4.2</td>
<td>-4.3</td>
<td>-2.5</td>
<td>1.2</td>
<td>7.4</td>
<td>11.7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Shipments</td>
<td>-3.2</td>
<td>-3.1</td>
<td>-2.3</td>
<td>1.2</td>
<td>5.9</td>
<td>10.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Excluding
Transportation</td>
<td>-2.9</td>
<td>-3.8</td>
<td>-0.3</td>
<td>1.5</td>
<td>6.7</td>
<td>11.4</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Unfilled Orders</td>
<td>-0.6</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>10.0</td>
<td>17.1</td>
<td>15.3</td>
<td>15.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Excluding
Transportation</td>
<td>-1.6</td>
<td>-0.6</td>
<td>5.2</td>
<td>8.2</td>
<td>16.0</td>
<td>9.2</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Mortgage Applications Surged
Last Week 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom
Moeller</a> December 4, 2008


<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081204e.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the total
number of mortgage applications more than doubled last week as
borrowers rushed to take advantage of lower interest rates and when the Fed announced that
it would buy GSE debt and MBS.
The index of applications to refinance a home mortgage tripled
w/w due to the government's guarantee.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 15-year mortgage
plummeted last week to 5.45%, down nearly a full percentage point from
the October average. For a 30-year mortgage rates also fell sharply to
5.70%. Interest rates on 15 and 30 year mortgages are closely
correlated (&gt;90%) with the rate on 10-year Treasury securities.
For an adjustable rate 1-Year mortgage the rate dropped less to 6.74%
after having averaged 6.89% during October.
Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home also surged by
nearly one half due to lower rates.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 79%
correlation between the level of applications for purchase and the
effective interest rate on a 30-year mortgage. Moreover, during the
last ten years there has been a 61% correlation between the y/y change
in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing single
family home sales.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of
the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance,
purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey covers roughly 50% of
all U.S. residential mortgage applications processed each week by
mortgage banks, commercial banks and thrifts. Visit the Mortgage
Bankers Association site <a href="http://www.mbaa.org">here</a>.
The figures for weekly mortgage applications are available in
Haver's SURVEYW database.
Today's speech titled Housing, Mortgage Markets, and
Foreclosures given by Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke can be
found <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20081204a.htm">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYW/@S5/@S5.HTM">MBA
Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">11/28/08</th>
<th scope="col">11/21/08</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Market Index</td>
<td>857.7</td>
<td>404.4</td>
<td>8.3%</td>
<td>652.6</td>
<td>584.2</td>
<td>708.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Purchase</td>
<td>361.1</td>
<td>261.6</td>
<td>-22.2%</td>
<td>424.9</td>
<td>406.9</td>
<td>470.9</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Refinancing</td>
<td>3,802.8</td>
<td>1,254.0</td>
<td>37.7%</td>
<td>1,997.9</td>
<td>1,634.0</td>
<td>2,092.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
EMU GDP Confirmed At -0.8% (Saar)In 2008-Q4 
by <a href="/comment/Brusca.html">Robert
Brusca</a> December 4, 2008


<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081204c.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The details of EMU GDP show that the downfall to growth in the
e-zone has been trade. GDP is falling at a 0.8% annual rate in Q3 as
the trade gap widened by &#8364;10bln in Q3. Moreover, indicators for Q4 are
still pointing to further weakening. Private consumption is erratic but
the Yr/Yr growth rates show it has slowed to a standstill. Public
consumption continues to grow at a nearly 2.5% pace. Spending on
capital formation has steadily decelerated and now runs at a Yr/Yr pace
of less than 1%, just like GDP. Export and import growth both have
moderated. But import growth is a bit faster than export growth,
spurting in Q3, leading to an expansion in the trade deficit and a
reduction in GDP growth. 
 

The problem that confronts EMU is that domestic demand is
faltering with its Yr/Yr rate of growth at 0.6% compared to 2.1% at the
end of 2007. At the same time international sources of growth are
tailing as exports are up at a 2.4% pace Yr/Yr compared to a five year
average rate of growth of 5.9%. EMU is being pinched between weak
domestic and weak foreign demand. The ECB, Bank of England and Bank of
Sweden rate cuts will help to stimulate Europe in general. But the
global slowdown is in gear and it will run its course. The ECB rate
cuts and the slightly weaker Euro will help to cushion the blow. But
both interest rates and foreign exchange rates take some time to have
an impact. Moreover, with world demand low, no country is going to do
very well with its export growth regardless of currency levels. 


 European GDP EU-15
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td colspan="3"> Consumption</td>
<td> Capital</td>
<td colspan="3"> Trade Domestic</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td> GDP</td>
<td> Private</td>
<td> Public</td>
<td> Formation</td>
<td> X-M:lbns E</td>
<td> Exports</td>
<td> Imports</td>
<td> Demand</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="9"> % change Q/Q (saar) ; X-M
is Q/Q change in Blns of euros</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"> Q3-08</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>-10.9</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>6.8%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"> Q2-08</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>-6.0%</td>
<td>2.5</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>-1.6%</td>
<td>-1.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"> Q1-08</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>9.9%</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td>7.1%</td>
<td>6.4%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"> Q4-07</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>-2.4%</td>
<td>6.4</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>-1.2%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="9"> % change Yr/Yr; X-M is
Yr/Yr change in Gap in Blns of euros</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"> Q3-08</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"> Q2-08</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>8.2</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"> Q1-08</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>9.6</td>
<td>5.3%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"> Q4-07</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>2.1</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"> 5-Yrs</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>1.8</td>
<td>5.9%</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081203h.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
After Germany reported out such weak sales this month, the
gauntlet was thrown down of all of EMU. EMU sales are slipping and
doing so at an accelerating pace. They dropped by 0.8% in October
alone. The three-month growth rate is -2.6% the 6-month growth rate is
-1.6% but that is a bit better than the 12-month pace at -2.3%. Food
purchases are stabilizing to some extent but nonfood sales are in a
slide that is gathering sharp downward momentum. 
 

The growth rates for the PRODUCT CATEGORIES do not show the
slowing in the headlines because they are only current through Sept. It
seems that much of the weakness in nominal sales is recent and is
masked by the pick up in inflation. The chart shows the growth of EMU
retail sales volumes. Its trends revels clearly that sales volume
trends have been decelerating sharply and that sales are shrinking. 
 

The EMU PMI indices have been showing deterioration most
sharply in the past few months. Moreover those series are more topical
with observations for November while retail sales headlines are
available for October and component data are fresh only through
September. The more topical data and the inflation adjusted data tell
the most pessimistic story and unfortunately these are the more
reliable reports at the moment. 
 

The European consumer will be contributing to this weakness
more in the coming months. Dropping consumer confidence and a sharp cut
in the German auto industry&#8217;s outlook for its sales contribute to such
a view. The spike up in Ireland&#8217;s rate of unemployment to its highest
mark since 1998 and Spain&#8217;s drop in consumer confidence are further
signs of growing and widespread deterioration. The signs of weakness
are there throughout the Zone and the UK and are they growing in
intensity and spreading across the region. Any European that though
that the slowdown would be confined to the &#8216;other side of the pond&#8217; is
now thoroughly disabused of that notion. 


<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr><th colspan="7" scope="col"> Ezone (15) Retail Sales Volume</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="grey5">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>Oct-08</td>
<td>Sep-08</td>
<td>Aug-08</td>
<td>3-Mo</td>
<td>6-Mo</td>
<td>12-Mo</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey4">
<td class="firstcol">Euro Area 15 Total</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>-2.6%</td>
<td>-1.2%</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey4">
<td class="firstcol">Food</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
<td>-2.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey4">
<td class="firstcol">Nonfood</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-3.8%</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
<td>-2.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey4">
<td class="firstcol">Textiles</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>-1.7%</td>
<td>14.0%</td>
<td>12.5%</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey4">
<td class="firstcol">Books news</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey4">
<td class="firstcol">Pharmaceuticals</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey4">
<td class="firstcol">Other Nonspecial</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
<td>-3.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey4">
<td class="firstcol">Mail Order</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>-1.9%</td>
<td>10.7%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td colspan="7" class="firstcol">Country detail: Volume</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey2">
<td class="firstcol">Germany: Volume excl
Auto</td>
<td>-1.6%</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>-3.9%</td>
<td>-2.2%</td>
<td>-1.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey4">
<td class="firstcol">Italy (Total Value)</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey4">
<td class="firstcol">UK (EU): Volume</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey1">
<td colspan="7" class="firstcol">Shaded areas calculated on a
one-month lag due to lagging data</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

After Germany reported out such weak sales this month, the gauntlet was thrown down of all of EMU. EMU sales are slipping and doing so at an accelerating pace. They dropped by 0.8% in October alone. The three-month growth rate is [...]

Euro Area Retail Sales Crash Hard Consumer Spending Plans Continue To Be Cut...

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081203g.jpg" width="353">
According to the Challenger, Grey &amp; Christmas survey, layoffs jumped last month to their highest level since January of 2002, just following the last recession. The level of 181,671 was more than double the year-earlier level of 73,140. The three-month average level of layoffs at 129,883 was its highest also since 2002.
The rise in layoffs last month was led by 91,356 job cuts in financial industries and 5,459 cuts in the insurance industry. There also were 11,073 layoffs in the retail sector and 10,877 in the transportation industry.
During the last ten years there has been a 76% (inverse) correlation between the three-month moving average of announced job cuts and the three-month change payroll employment.
Job cut announcements differ from layoffs. Many are achieved through attrition, early retirement or just never occur.
The causes and consequences of economic restructuring: evidence from the early 21st century from the Federal Reserve Board can be found <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2008/200841/200841abs.html">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S3/@S301/@S301.HTM">Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas</a></th>
<th scope="col">November</th>
<th scope="col">October</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Announced Job Cuts</td>
<td>181,671</td>
<td>112,884</td>
<td>148.4%</td>
<td>768,264</td>
<td>839,822</td>
<td>1,072,054</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

According to the Challenger, Grey & Christmas survey, layoffs jumped last month to their highest level since January of 2002, just following the last recession. The level of 181,671 was more than double the year-earlier level of [...]

U.S. Challenger Layoffs More Than Doubled Y/Y To The Highest Since 2002

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>

 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081203e.jpg" width="353">
The November Composite Index for the nonmanufacturing sector from the Institute for Supply Management fell sharply to 37.3 from an unrevised 44.4 during October. The figure was weaker than Consensus expectations for a reading of 42.0 and it was the lowest in the series&#39; relatively brief ten year history.
The nonmanufacturing business activity sub-index also fell sharply to 33.0 which was a record low for the series. Since the series&#39; inception in 1997 there has been a 48% correlation between the level of the business activity index for the nonmanufacturing sector and the Q/Q change in real GDP for the services and the construction sectors.
The employment index fell to 31.3 which also was a new low for the series. Since the series&#39; inception in 1997 there has been a 56% correlation between the level of the ISM nonmanufacturing employment index and the m/m change in payroll employment in the service-producing plus the construction industries.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081203f.jpg" width="353">
The new orders sub-index fell sharply to a recession level of 35.4.
Pricing power also collapsed. The reading of 36.6 was a new record low for the series. Since its inception ten years ago, there has been a 60% correlation between the price index and the q/q change in the GDP services chain price index.
Beginning with the January 2008 Nonmanufacturing <cite>Report On Business</cite>&reg;, the composite index is calculated as an indicator of the overall economic condition for the non-manufacturing sector. It is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the indicators (business activity, new orders, employment and supplier deliveries) with equal weights. The latest report from the ISM can be found <a href="http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm">here</a>.
ISM surveys more than 370 purchasing managers in more than 62 industries including law firms, hospitals, government and retailers. The nonmanufacturing survey dates back to July 1997.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF03/@EF03.HTM">ISM Nonmanufacturing Survey</a></th>
<th scope="col">November</th>
<th scope="col">October</th>
<th scope="col">November &#39;07</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Composite Index</td>
<td>37.3</td>
<td>44.4</td>
<td>52.4</td>
<td>53.5</td>
<td>55.7</td>
<td>58.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Prices Index</td>
<td>36.6</td>
<td>53.4</td>
<td>73.7</td>
<td>63.8</td>
<td>65.3</td>
<td>68.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


</html>

The November Composite Index for the nonmanufacturing sector from the Institute for Supply Management fell sharply to 37.3 from an unrevised 44.4 during October. The figure was weaker than Consensus expectations for a reading of 42.0 [...]

U.S. ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Weaker-Than-Expected

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081203c.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The payroll processor ADP indicated in its latest National
Employment Report that October private nonfarm payrolls fell 250,000
after a revised 179,000 October shortfall that was deeper than the
initial estimate. The latest was the fifth decline in the last six
months and it was the largest since November 2001. During the last
three months payrolls have fallen 0.4%.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081203d.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will report on
November payroll employment this Friday.
Last month, the 179,000 worker decline in ADP's measure of private
nonfarm payrolls was accompanied by a 263,000 (-1.1% y/y) worker
decline in the BLS measure of private sector payrolls.
According to ADP and Macro Advisers, the correlation between
the monthly percentage change in the ADP estimate and that in the BLS
data is 0.90.


By the ADP measure, goods producing payrolls fell by 158,000
(-4.0% y/y). The largest decline was amongst medium sized payrolls
which fell 79,000 (-4.3% y/y) followed by a 47,000 (-2.6% y/y) drop in
small sized payrolls. Large payrolls fell 32,000 (-5.8% y/y). 

Employment in the manufacturing sector fell 118,000 (-4.2%
y/y) It has fallen in each month since late-2005.

Employment in the service producing industry added to the
weakness in the goods producing sector. Payrolls fell 92,000 (+0.5%
y/y), the first decline since 2001. Small service producing payrolls
fell 32,000 (+1.1% y/y). Medium sized payrolls fell 51,000 (+0.3% y/y)
and large service producing payrolls dropped by 9,000 (-0.6% y/y).

ADP compiled the estimate from its database of individual
companies' payroll information. Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, the St.
Louis economic consulting firm, developed the methodology for
transforming the raw data into an economic indicator.


The ADP National Employment Report data is maintained in
Haver's 
USECON database;
historical data go back to December 2000. The figures in this report
cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in the public
sector, which rose an average 11,083 during the last twelve months.
The full ADP National Employment Report can be found <a href="http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/pdf/final_report_november_08.pdf" title="blocked::http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/PDF/FINAL_Report_june_09.pdf">here</a>,
and the ADP methodology is explained <a href="http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/PDF/ADPNERMethodology.pdf" title="blocked::http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/PDF/ADPNERMethodology.pdf">here</a>.

<div> </div>

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EB/@EB25/@EB25.HTM">LAXEPA@USECON</a></th>
<th scope="col">November</th>
<th scope="col">October</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Nonfarm Private Payroll
Employment (m/m Chg.)</td>
<td>-250,000</td>
<td>-179,000</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

The payroll processor ADP indicated in its latest National Employment Report that October private nonfarm payrolls fell 250,000 after a revised 179,000 October shortfall that was deeper than the initial estimate. The latest was the [...]

ADP Report: Payroll Employment Fell Again By 250,000

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

Rising long-term yields a global phenomenon

US financial market concerns shifting from growth to inflation

Economic activity is picking up in the US but remains lackluster abroad

Policy uncertainty has surged since the US national elections.

Recent turnaround in US economic surprises leading to increases in rate-cut expectations

The outlook has brightened in the US, while it has dimmed for other major economies

Headline US PCE inflation elevated by sticky services prices

US and global equity prices have recently diverged

US leading global upturn in economic surprises

Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary easing apart from Japan

Recent rise in global supply chain pressures could augur a pickup in global inflation pressures

Underperforming German economy generating increased policy uncertainty relative to Europe and the US

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

New York

London

Singapore

Tokyo

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

250502A5.jpg

250502B5.jpg

Nonfarm payrolls increased 177,000 (1.2% y/y) during April after rising 185,000 in March, revised from 228,000, and 102,000 in February, revised from 117,000. Expectations had been for a 130,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The latest figure left the three-month average change at 155,000 in April, down from 232,000 in January.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% during April after unrevised increases of 0.3% in March and 0.2% in February. Earnings growth of 3.8% y/y was below the 5.9% high in March 2022.

The unemployment rate, measured in the household survey, held m/m at an expected 4.2% in April, and compared to 4.1% in February and 4.0% in January. It reached a low of 3.4% in April 2023. The unemployment rate, including employees working part-time for economic reasons plus all marginally-attached workers, eased to 7.8% in April from 7.9% in March.

In the **establishment survey**, private-sector employment rose 167,000 (1.2% y/y) after a 170,000 March increase. Factory sector jobs edged 1,000 lower (-0.7% y/y) following a 3,000 gain. Construction sector employment increased 11,000 (1.7% y/y), after rising 7,000 in March.

Private service-producing sector employment increased 156,000 (1.4% y/y) in April after improving 161,000 in March. Increases varied greatly amongst service sector categories. Private education & health sector employment rose 70,000 (3.4% y/y) last month following a 74,000 March increase. Leisure & hospitality employment rose 24,000 (1.3% y/y) after a 38,000 gain. Trade, transportation & utilities rose 32,000 (0.9% y/y) in April following a 25,000 March increase. Professional & business services employment rose 17,000 (-0.1% y/y) following a 3,000 rise while temporary help employment rose 3,600 (-3.9% y/y) following a 2,700 decline. Financial activities employment improved 14,000 (1.2% y/y) after a 6,000 gain. The number of information sector jobs held steady (-0.4% y/y) last month after falling 2,000 in March.

Government sector payrolls rose 10,000 (1.3% y/y) last month after increasing 15,000 in March. The number of local government jobs increased 13,000 (1.4% y/y) following a 17,000 gain. State government employment rose 6,000 (1.8% y/y) following a 2,000 March increase but federal government payrolls fell 9,000 (-0.3% y/y), the third consecutive monthly decline.

Private-sector average hourly earnings rose 0.2% (3.8% y/y) in April after increasing 0.3% in March. Earnings in the goods-producing sector eased 0.1% (+4.0% y/y) following a 0.6% gain. Earnings in construction rose 0.3% (3.6% y/y), after a 0.2% rise but factory sector earnings declined 0.3% (+4.3% y/y) after surging 0.8% in March. In the private services-sector, earnings rose 0.2% (3.7% y/y) in April for the third straight month. Information sector pay increased 1.0% (5.2% y/y) last month after easing 0.1%, and financial activities earnings rose 0.5% (4.3% y/y) for the second straight month. Trade, transportation & utilities sector pay increased 0.4% (3.4% y/y) after 0.6%. Professional & business sector earnings increased 0.1% (4.4% y/y) after 0.2% in March. Leisure & hospitality earnings held steady (+3.8% y/y) following a 0.6% March increase.

250502C5.jpg

250502D5.jpg

The length of the average workweek held steady at 34.3 hours in April. The workweek in the goods-producing sector eased to 39.8 hours from 40.0 hours. The construction sector average workweek eased to 39.0 hours from 39.3 hours while the factory sector workweek moved lower to 40.0 hours from 40.2. The average workweek in the private service sector held at 33.2 hours. Professional & business service hours fell to 36.3 hours from 36.4 while trade, transportation & utilities hours improved to 34.3 from 34.0 hours. Private education hours rose slightly to 32.8, but leisure & hospitality held steady at 25.5 hours.

In the **household survey**, the unemployment rate held at 4.2% in April as employment rose 436,000 and the size of the labor force increased 518,000. The labor force participation rate edged up to 62.6% last month from 62.5% in March. It remained below the high of 63.3% early in 2020. The rate for teenagers declined to 36.9%. For workers aged 20-24, the rate held steady at 72.1%, up from 71.8% six months earlier. For workers aged 25-54 the rate rose to 83.6%, a five-month high. For individuals 55 and over, the rate improved to 38.4% in April.

The employment/population ratio for all workers in April rose to 60.0%. It remained below the peak reading of 61.1% in February, 2020 just prior to the pandemic.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

250502X5.jpg

250502F5.jpg

- Job growth spreads across most sectors.
- Earnings growth trend decelerates.
- Jobless rate holds steady.

U.S. Job Growth Is Firm in April but March Gain Is Lessened

Winnie Tapasanun

250502F32.jpg

250502G32.jpg

Total factory orders rose a slightly less-than-expected 4.3% m/m in March after rises of 0.5% in February and 1.8% in January, data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. A 4.5% m/m March increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The March reading was the third successive monthly rise and the largest since July 2024. The year-on-year rate accelerated to 6.0% in March, the highest since November 2022, from 2.3% in February. Notably, orders for nondefense aircraft & parts soared 139.0% in March following a 7.4% drop in February and a 92.9% surge in January. Factory orders excluding defense rose 4.8% (5.9% y/y), the largest of three straight m/m/ rises, after a 0.4% February increase. Factory orders excluding the transportation sector fell 0.2% (+1.1% y/y), the first m/m fall since August, after rising 0.3% in February, January and December.

Durable goods orders jumped 9.2% (11.9% y/y) in March, the third consecutive m/m gain and the biggest since July 2024, on top of a 0.8% increase in February (matching +9.2% m/m in the advance report on April 24). The March jump reflected m/m orders increases of 27.1% (the largest m/m surge since July 2024; 31.2% y/y) in transportation equipment, 1.1% (4.9% y/y) in primary metals, 0.5% (-0.4% y/y) in furniture & related products, 0.1% (2.5% y/y) in fabricated metal products, and 0.1% (0.9% y/y) in machinery. To the downside, durable goods orders for computers & electronic products (-1.3%; +2.7% y/y) and electrical equipment, appliances & components (-1.0%; +4.2% y/y) declined m/m in March.

Nondurable goods orders, which equal nondurable goods shipments, fell 0.3% (+0.4% y/y) in March, the first m/m fall since September, after a 0.1% uptick in February. The March fall reflected m/m drops of 2.4% (-9.3% y/y) in petroleum & coal products and 0.9% (-1.2% y/y) in apparel. To the upside, the following nondurable goods shipments rose m/m in March: leather & allied products (1.5%; 8.6% y/y), beverage & tobacco products (0.7%; 5.8% y/y), paper products (0.6%; 2.3% y/y), printing (0.3%; 3.8% y/y), textile mills (0.3%; 0.8% y/y), chemical products (0.2%; 5.4% y/y), plastics & rubber products (0.2%; 0.4% y/y), food products (0.1%; 1.8% y/y), and textile products (0.1%; 2.1% y/y).

Total shipments slipped 0.1% (+2.0% y/y) in March, the first m/m easing since October, after a 0.7% increase in February. Excluding transportation, shipments were virtually unchanged m/m (+1.1% y/y) in March following six straight m/m gains. Shipments of durable goods industries inched up 0.1% (3.8% y/y) in March, the smallest of four consecutive m/m increases, after a 1.3% advance in February. This reflected m/m durable goods shipments rises of 1.2% (5.6% y/y) in primary metals, 0.9% (0.1% y/y) in furniture & related products, 0.8% (-0.2% y/y) in nonmetallic mineral products, 0.4% (0.0% y/y) in machinery, 0.3% (1.8% y/y) in fabricated metal products, 0.2% (4.5% y/y) in computers & electronic products, 0.2% (-2.1% y/y) in wood products, and 0.1% (3.0% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components. In contrast, durable goods shipments for transportation equipment (-0.5%; +7.3% y/y) and miscellaneous durable goods (-0.1%; +2.9% y/y) fell m/m in March following three successive m/m increases.

Unfilled orders rose 2.0% (2.3% y/y) in March, up for the eighth month in nine, after a 0.1% uptick in February. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders dipped 0.1% (+0.7% y/y) in March, the first m/m easing since May 2024, after holding steady in February. Backlogs of durable goods rose 2.0% (2.3% y/y) in March, reflecting m/m rises of 3.1% (3.1% y/y) in transportation equipment and 0.2% (2.4% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components.

Inventories edged up 0.1% (0.9% y/y) in March, the fifth straight m/m increase, after rising at the same pace in the prior two months. Excluding transportation, inventories were up 0.1% (0.5% y/y) in March, the fifth consecutive m/m rise. Durable goods inventories ticked up 0.1% (1.0% y/y) in March after holding steady in February and January; nondurable goods inventories edged up 0.1% (0.8% y/y), the fifth successive m/m increase.

The factory sector data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

250502H32.jpg

250502I32.jpg

- March manufacturers’ new orders +4.3% m/m; +6.0% y/y, highest since Nov. ’22.
- Durable goods orders (+9.2%) jump m/m, while nondurable goods orders (-0.3%) and shipments (-0.1%) decline m/m.
- Transportation equipt. orders +27.1% m/m, w/ a 139.0% m/m surge in nondefense aircraft & parts orders.
- Unfilled orders +2.0%, the eighth m/m rise in nine months.
- Inventories +0.1%, the fifth consecutive m/m increase.

U.S. Factory Orders Increase for the Third Straight Month in March

250502E.jpg

The global manufacturing data showed broad weakening in April as conditions weakened across more than half of the contributing early reporters in the S&P survey of manufacturing. Of the 18 early reporting countries, more than half of them showed deceleration over six months and 12 months. Over three months, only 8 of 18 showed deterioration and that's about as good as it got in this report. In the current month, month-to-month changes showed more than half of the survey contributors showing weaker results than the month before. In the S&P framework, manufacturing improved month-to-month for the U.S.; however, looking at sequential averages for the U.S., U.K., European monetary union, Canada, and Japan, we see a steady weakening and results over 12 months, over six months versus 12 months, and for three months versus 6 months. The highly developed countries are not doing particularly well.

Asian economies are also showing slight deterioration but doing a little better than the developed countries in general.

Only five of the 18 reporting countries have queue percentile standings in their data back to January 2021 that are above their medians. Readings at or above the 50% mark are at or above the median standing. Canada is showing the weakest manufacturing result on record over this span, in terms of its queue percentile standing which is at 0 in the current month.

I showed the graphic for the Baltic dry goods index in this report rather than statistics on the manufacturing PMI data because the Baltic data, which reflect shipping volume for dry goods - that is excluding things like oil - is weak but it's only in the neighborhood where it's been for some time. There has been a great deal of talk about how tariffs may have impacted trade flows, expected trade flows, shipping, shipping rates, and the like. However, according to the Baltic dry goods index, there isn't much evidence that this is occurring right now and affecting the current data. That may still lie ahead but for now it's not baked in the cake.

250502.jpg

Globally Manufacturing Weakens

Andrew Cates

**China-US shipping activity** 
The economic fallout from escalating US-China trade tensions is becoming increasingly visible in the data. A clear example is the chart below, which highlights a sharp drop in vessel arrivals at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, along with a notable decline in ships waiting offshore. These trends point to a tangible weakening in bilateral trade flows, as the effects of tit-for-tat tariffs imposed by both countries begin to bite. Given the outsized role the US and China play in global commerce, this slowdown is likely to reverberate through global supply chains, weighing on trade volumes, dampening demand, and curbing economic growth worldwide.

250501Z1.jpg

**GDP growth in Q1**
Data this week showed that the US economy contracted, albeit modestly, in Q1 even as the euro area recorded a modest expansion—an unusual divergence. The contraction in US GDP can be largely attributed to a sharp increase in imports, as firms rushed to front-load purchases ahead of anticipated tariff hikes. In addition, domestic demand was subdued, with weaker contributions from both consumer spending and government consumption. This decoupling between the US and euro area economies is particularly striking given the current global focus on the US dollar. While the euro area has shown unexpected signs of resilience, the US downturn raises important questions about its underlying momentum, especially as trade dynamics and policy uncertainty continue to cloud the outlook.

250501Z2.jpg

**The US dollar versus yield differentials**
Chart 3 below illustrates a sharp breakdown in the correlation between the US-Germany 10-year yield differential and the EUR/USD exchange rate. Historically, the dollar has moved closely with interest rate spreads, as yield-seeking capital flowed into US assets. But since early 2025—and more acutely following the April tariff actions—the dollar has weakened markedly even as the yield spread has narrowed only modestly. This decoupling underscores a critical shift: capital markets are reacting not just to monetary policy, but to rising trade and geopolitical uncertainty. In other words, the exchange rate is now being driven as much by risk sentiment as by interest rate arbitrage.

250501Z3.jpg

**The US economy’s structural outperformance and the dollar**
A second dynamic, captured in the next chart, reveals a tight correlation between the US real effective exchange rate and the potential GDP growth differential between the US and euro area over the past 50-60 years. This raises the question: has dollar strength (until recently) merely been a reflection of US growth leadership—or are capital inflows themselves helping to sustain this growth outperformance? In effect, the tail may be wagging the dog. Global investors have long allocated capital to the US, attracted by its macroeconomic resilience, technological leadership, and deep, liquid financial markets. The danger now is that the US trade war may disrupt this equilibrium. A sharp or sustained reduction in capital inflows could undermine growth, weaken the dollar, and trigger broader financial instability. Moreover, reversing this dynamic is not straightforward—barring a credible structural resurgence in European (or Asian) growth, the global investment landscape remains tilted toward the US.

250501Z4.jpg

**US competitiveness versus Europe, China and Japan** 
The next chart below examines relative unit labour costs across major economies since 2011. The US and China have seen a broadly similar trajectory, with steady increases in relative cost structures, while the euro area has remained flat and Japan has seen dramatic improvement. This suggests that, from a cost competitiveness standpoint, the US is not uniquely disadvantaged vis-à-vis China. However, as we discuss further below, this parallel erosion of cost competitiveness is occurring at much higher nominal wage levels in the US, which blunts its ability to regain export share through tariff-related shifts alone. The trade war strategy—absent a corresponding improvement in productivity or structural reforms—risks imposing costs without delivering material competitiveness gains.

250501Z5.jpg

**Average wages in selected developed and developing economies**
This point is reinforced by the final chart, which shows estimates for average monthly wages across countries in 2024. US labour remains much more expensive than in peer or emerging economies. So even if China’s costs rise in tandem with the US, the global supply chain has ample alternatives. 'China plus one' strategies are accelerating, and the US remains structurally misaligned with low-cost production hubs. Tariffs aimed at reshoring supply chains are unlikely to deliver sustained gains unless accompanied by deep supply-side reforms, and risk further disincentivizing foreign direct investment if global firms perceive US trade policy as erratic or punitive.

250501Z6.jpg

Financial markets found a measure of calm this week, buoyed by some subtle shifts in tone from US policymakers. A softening in the administration’s rhetoric around trade tariffs coupled with a less confrontational stance toward Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, helped ease tensions that had roiled markets earlier in the month. Equities rebounded modestly, and volatility indicators edged lower, reflecting cautious optimism that the worst of the policy shocks may be behind us. But beneath the surface, significant downside risks persist. New shipping data point to a pronounced slowdown in US-China trade flows (chart 1), suggesting the damage from recent tariff escalations is already rippling through global supply chains. Meanwhile, incoming data for the US revealed an unexpected contraction in the economy in Q1 and further signs of weakness in the labour market (chart 2). The US dollar, in the meantime, while long supported by superior growth and yield differentials, has begun to decouple from traditional drivers (charts 3 and 4) suggesting growing pressure on capital flows. At the same time, structural imbalances are drawing renewed scrutiny: unit labour cost comparisons show the US steadily losing competitiveness (chart 5), while nominal wage disparities remain stark versus China and other Asian economies, further complicating any effort to restore trade balance without broader reforms (chart 6). In short, while markets may be drawing temporary comfort from a pause in tariff brinkmanship, the deeper economic and financial vulnerabilities exposed this month remain unresolved—and increasingly central to the global macro narrative.

<iframe style="border-radius:12px" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/3PzXXKrkHcwtOLipohEdnB?utm_source=generator" width="100%" height="152" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Charts of the Week: Tariff Truce, Tenuous Trust

250501F20.jpg

250501G20.jpg

U.S. light vehicle sales dropped 2.9% (+6.5% y/y) to 17.31 million units (SAAR) in April after surging 10.8% to 17.82 million units in March. The retreat in April vehicle sales accompanied a 1.7% y/y rise in real disposable income through March, which compared to 2.0% growth last year.

Sales declines were broad-based last month. Light truck sales fell 1.3% (+9.9% y/y) during April to 14.34 million units (SAAR), after rising 12.4% in March. Purchases of domestically-made light trucks declined 1.2% (+11.9% y/y) to 11.02 million units, after jumping 12.5% in March. Sales of imported light trucks fell 1.8% (+4.4% y/y) to 3.32 million units, following an 11.6% March surge.

Trucks’ record 82.8% share of the light vehicle market last month compared to 81.5% in March and 80.3% in April of last year. The share averaged 80.3% during all of 2024 versus 53.3% ten years earlier.

Auto sales also declined last month, down 9.5% (-7.5%) to 2.97 million units (SAAR) following a 3.5% March rise. The decline reversed all of the increase over the prior two months. Purchases of domestically-produced cars fell 9.8% (-4.3% y/y) last month to 2.22 million units, after rising 3.8% in March. Sales of imported autos declined 9.6% (-15.7% y/y) to 0.75 million units, following a 2.5% March increase.

Imports' 23.5% share of the U.S. light vehicle market was little changed from 23.6% in March and compared to a May 2023 low of 22.9% and a high of 26.3% in November of 2023. Imports' share of the passenger car market held steady at 25.3% last month and compared to 27.7% in April of last year. It reached a high of 38.7% in September 2021. Imports' share of the light truck market eased to 23.2% last month after falling to 23.3% in March.

U.S. vehicle sales figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Additional detail by manufacturer is in the I**NDUSTRY** database.

250501H20.jpg

250501I20.jpg

- Light truck sales pull back, while auto sales tumble.
- Both domestic and imported sales decline.
- Imports' market share slips further.

Economy in Brief: 2008

Jump to:

U.S. Factory Inventories Fell Again

EMU GDP Confirmed At -0.8% (Saar) In 2008-Q4

U.S. Weekly Claims For Jobless Insurance Fell, But Month's Level Still High

U.S. Weekly Claims For Jobless Insurance Fell, But Month's Level Still High

Euro Area Retail Sales Crash Hard Consumer Spending Plans Continue To Be Cut...

U.S. Challenger Layoffs More Than Doubled Y/Y To The Highest Since 2002

U.S. ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Weaker-Than-Expected

ADP Report: Payroll Employment Fell Again By 250,000