Global| Dec 03 2008ADP Report: Payroll Employment Fell Again By 250,000
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The payroll processor ADP indicated in its latest National Employment Report that October private nonfarm payrolls fell 250,000 after a revised 179,000 October shortfall that was deeper than the initial estimate. The latest was the [...]
The payroll processor ADP indicated in its latest National
Employment Report that October private nonfarm payrolls fell 250,000
after a revised 179,000 October shortfall that was deeper than the
initial estimate. The latest was the fifth decline in the last six
months and it was the largest since November 2001. During the last
three months payrolls have fallen 0.4%.
According to ADP and Macro Advisers, the correlation between the monthly percentage change in the ADP estimate and that in the BLS data is 0.90.
By the ADP measure, goods producing payrolls fell by 158,000
(-4.0% y/y). The largest decline was amongst medium sized payrolls
which fell 79,000 (-4.3% y/y) followed by a 47,000 (-2.6% y/y) drop in
small sized payrolls. Large payrolls fell 32,000 (-5.8% y/y).
Employment in the manufacturing sector fell 118,000 (-4.2% y/y) It has fallen in each month since late-2005.
Employment in the service producing industry added to the weakness in the goods producing sector. Payrolls fell 92,000 (+0.5% y/y), the first decline since 2001. Small service producing payrolls fell 32,000 (+1.1% y/y). Medium sized payrolls fell 51,000 (+0.3% y/y) and large service producing payrolls dropped by 9,000 (-0.6% y/y).
ADP compiled the estimate from its database of individual companies' payroll information. Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, the St. Louis economic consulting firm, developed the methodology for transforming the raw data into an economic indicator.
The ADP National Employment Report data is maintained in Haver's
USECON database; historical data go back to December 2000. The figures in this report cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in the public sector, which rose an average 11,083 during the last twelve months.The full ADP National Employment Report can be found here, and the ADP methodology is explained here.
| LAXEPA@USECON | November | October | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m Chg.) | -250,000 | -179,000 | -0.3% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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