Robert Brusca

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
</head>


	 
 
 
 
 


<a href="/comment/151125t_big.png" name="modal"><img class="large" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/151125t.png" align="left"></a>
Retail sales volumes and consumer confidence in Italy have recovered much better than has the Italian industrial sector. Italian orders fell for the second month in a row. Italian foreign orders have fallen in each of the last three-months, and in four of the last five months. And, while, Italian retail sales have fallen in September they are up by 1.5% over 12-months. The industrial weakness has not yet hit retailing hard. 

Italy is still struggling. Like much of the rest of Europe, its manufacturing sector continues to do worse than its domestic sectors. 

Italian industrial orders show extreme weakness with accelerating declines over more recent periods. In the quarter to date overall orders are falling at an 18 percent annual rate. Foreign orders are falling at a 16 percent annual rate compared to domestic orders falling at a 20 percent annual rate. Domestic orders, orders that are very weak in the quarter-to-date, have only begun to show greater weakness than foreign orders. 

Italian retail sales are growing but are not prospering. Sales fell by 0.1% in September after rising by a meager 0.2% in August. Three month growth at 1.7% is marginally above its 6-month pace and 12-month pace of 1.5%. But in the quarter to date sales are up only at a 0.8% pace.

Italy's foreign order weakness comes despite a substantially undervalued euro exchange rate. Easy ECB monetary policy and its debilitating impact on the EMU exchange rate have not been able to resuscitate the moribund Italian economy or to breathe new life into its manufacturing sector. Italy remains weak despite some improvement in consumer confidence and expanding, but weak, retail sales. Its pursuit of austerity has dominated any attempt to restore growth to its former pace.

The ECB is preparing to launch further monetary accommodation and it is expected to be announced at its upcoming December meeting. Italy needs further stimulus but it is not clear that further ECB accommodation will be the right ticket for Italy. 
 

<img border="0" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/1511252.png" width="660" height="170">
<img border="0" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/1511251.png" width="660" height="140"></html>

Retail sales volumes and consumer confidence in Italy have recovered much better than has the Italian industrial sector. Italian orders fell for the second month in a row. Italian foreign orders have fallen in each of the last three- [...]

Retail Sales Growth Turns Negative In September

Tom Moeller

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
</head>
<body>
	 
 
 
 
 
 
 <a href="/comment/151125o_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/151125o.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/151125p_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/151125p.png"></a>
 
 
Sales of new single-family homes increased 10.7% during October to 495,000
(AR) from 447,000 in September, revised from 468,000. The gain left sales up
4.9% y/y but unchanged since December. Sales of 500,000 had been expected in the
Action Economics Forecast Survey. The rise contrasts to Monday's report of a
3.7% decline in existing single-family homes.
The median price of a new home plunged 8.5% from September and was down 6.0%
y/y. The average sales price declined 1.0% m/m and was off 4.7% y/y.
Home sales in the Northeast more-than-doubled to 40,000 following a sharp
decline in September. Sales were at the highest level since January 2010. Sales
in the South also were firm, rising 8.9% to 281,000 (5.2% y/y). Sales in the
Midwest gained 5.3% to 60,000 but were down 4.8% y/y. Home sales in the West
eased 0.9% to 114,000 and were off 2.6% y/y.
The inventory of unsold homes increased 8.7% y/y and there was 5.5 months
supply at the current sales rate. That figure is up slightly from 4.8 months at
the beginning of the year. The median number of months a new home was for sale
fell to a record low of 2.8.&nbsp; 
The data in this report are available in Haver's USECON database. The
consensus expectation figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is
available in the AS1REPNA database.
Five Questions Related to U.S. Monetary Policy is the title of St.
Louis Fed President &amp; CEO James Bullard's speech and it can be found
<a href="https://www.stlouisfed.org/news-releases/2015/11/20/st-louis-feds-bullard-discusses-five-questions-related-to-us-monetary-policy">here</a>.
&nbsp;

 <a href="/comment/151125r_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/151125r.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/151125s_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/151125s.png"></a>
 
 
<table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>


 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" >U.S. New Single-Family
 Home Sales (SAAR, 000s)</th>
 <th scope="col" >Oct</th>
 <th scope="col" >Sep</th>
 <th scope="col" >Aug</th>
 <th scope="col" >Y/Y %, SA</th>
 <th scope="col" >2014</th>
 <th scope="col" >2013</th>
 <th scope="col" >2012</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Total</td>
 <td >495</td>
 <td >447</td>
 <td >513</td>
 <td >4.9</td>
 <td >440</td>
 <td >430</td>
 <td >368</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Northeast</td>
 <td >40</td>
 <td >17</td>
 <td >32</td>
 <td >60.0</td>
 <td >28</td>
 <td >31</td>
 <td >29</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Midwest</td>
 <td >60</td>
 <td >57</td>
 <td >59</td>
 <td >-4.8</td>
 <td >58</td>
 <td >61</td>
 <td >47</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; South</td>
 <td >281</td>
 <td >258</td>
 <td >297</td>
 <td >5.2</td>
 <td >244</td>
 <td >233</td>
 <td >195</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; West</td>
 <td >114</td>
 <td >115</td>
 <td >125</td>
 <td >-2.6</td>
 <td >110</td>
 <td >106</td>
 <td >97</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >Median Price (NSA, $)</td>
 <td >281,500</td>
 <td >307,800</td>
 <td >294,600</td>
 <td >-6.0</td>
 <td >283,775</td>
 <td >265,092</td>
 <td >242,108</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
</table>


</body>

</html>

Sales of new single-family homes increased 10.7% during October to 495,000 (AR) from 447,000 in September, revised from 468,000. The gain left sales up 4.9% y/y but unchanged since December. Sales of 500,000 had been expected in the [...]

U.S. New Home Sales Rise M/M but Tread Water This Year

Carol Stone, CBE

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
</head>
<body>
	 
 
 
 

 <a href="/comment/151125m_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/151125m.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/151125n_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/151125n.png"></a>


The U.S. House Price Index from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) increased 0.8% in September (6.1% y/y). This gain followed a much more modest 0.3% in August and was indeed the strongest monthly increase since March 2013. For the third quarter, the index gained 1.3% over Q2, that is, an annual rate of 5.2%, and was 5.7% above Q3 2014. This index covers prices on actual purchases. An associated quarterly index including appraisals on refinancings was up 1.6% in Q3 and 5.6% over a year ago.

The purchase price index was strongest in September in the New England states, where it rose 1.4% (4.4% y/y); that, however, followed just 0.3% in August and a decline of 1.1% in July. Several other regions had similar patterns of rebound in September after sluggishness in August. East North Central states saw 1.2% in September (4.8% y/y) after declines in August of 0.4% and July, 0.1%. Pacific states' prices were also up 1.2% in September (8.3% y/y), but that followed moderate gains of 0.6% in August and 0.5% in July. In the Middle Atlantic region, prices increase 0.9% in September, rebounding from -0.1% in August, but a stronger 1.0% in July. That region's year-to-year gain was the weakest overall, at 3.6%.

In the Mountain states, prices had a steadier monthly pattern, with September up 0.9%, August, 0.4% and July, 1.5%. These gains made the year-on-year increase 9.3%, the strongest performance among the nine regions. West South Central states had an 0.8% gain in September (6.5% y/y), following 0.2% in August and 0.5% in July.

There were slowdowns in the other regions, although no area showed a decline in September. Prices in the West North Central states edged up 0.1% (5.1% y/y) after stronger gains of 1.0% in August and 0.8% in July. East North Central states were also up just 0.1% in September (4.5% y/y) after 0.3% in August and 0.7% in July. The South Atlantic region saw prices up 0.2% in September (7.0% y/y), with August at 0.6% and July at 0.3%.

The FHFA house price index is a weighted repeat sales index. It measures average price changes in repeat sales of the same property. As noted above, an associated quarterly index also includes refinancings on the same kinds of properties. The indexes are based on transactions involving conforming, conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Only mortgage transactions on single-family properties are included. The FHFA data are available in Haver's USECON database.


 <table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>

 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" >FHFA U.S. House Price Index Purchase
 Only (SA %)</th>
 <th scope="col" >Sep</th>
 <th scope="col" >Aug</th>
 <th scope="col" >Jul</th>
 <th scope="col" >Sep Y/Y</th>
 <th scope="col" >2014</th>
 <th scope="col" >2013</th>
 <th scope="col" >2012</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Total</td>
 <td >0.8</td>
 <td >0.3</td>
 <td >0.5</td>
 <td >6.1</td>
 <td >5.6</td>
 <td >7.5</td>
 <td >3.3</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Mountain</td>
 <td >0.9</td>
 <td >0.4</td>
 <td >1.5</td>
 <td >9.3</td>
 <td >7.5</td>
 <td >12.3</td>
 <td >7.8</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Pacific</td>
 <td >1.2</td>
 <td >0.6</td>
 <td >0.5</td>
 <td >8.3</td>
 <td >9.6</td>
 <td >16.1</td>
 <td >4.9</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; West South Central</td>
 <td >0.8</td>
 <td >0.2</td>
 <td >0.5</td>
 <td >6.5</td>
 <td >5.8</td>
 <td >6.2</td>
 <td >4.0</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; South Atlantic</td>
 <td >0.2</td>
 <td >0.6</td>
 <td >0.3</td>
 <td >7.0</td>
 <td >6.0</td>
 <td >8.1</td>
 <td >3.8</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; East North Central</td>
 <td >1.2</td>
 <td >-0.4</td>
 <td >-0.1</td>
 <td >4.8</td>
 <td >4.8</td>
 <td >5.4</td>
 <td >2.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; West North Central</td>
 <td >0.1</td>
 <td >1.0</td>
 <td >0.8</td>
 <td >5.1</td>
 <td >4.2</td>
 <td >4.9</td>
 <td >3.2</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; East South Central</td>
 <td >0.1</td>
 <td >0.3</td>
 <td >0.7</td>
 <td >4.5</td>
 <td >3.7</td>
 <td >4.4</td>
 <td >2.2</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Middle Atlantic</td>
 <td >0.9</td>
 <td >-0.1</td>
 <td >1.0</td>
 <td >3.6</td>
 <td >2.4</td>
 <td >2.8</td>
 <td >-0.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; New England</td>
 <td >1.4</td>
 <td >0.3</td>
 <td >-1.1</td>
 <td >4.4</td>
 <td >3.2</td>
 <td >3.9</td>
 <td >-0.2</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
</table>
<table class="centered" border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td>
 
 New England: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode
 Island and Connecticut. 
 Middle Atlantic: New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. 
 East North Central: Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana and
 Ohio. 
 West North Central: North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota,
 Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas and Missouri. 
 South Atlantic: Delaware, Maryland, D.C., Virginia, West
 Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, GA &amp; FL 
 East South Central: Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi and Alabama. 
 West South Central: Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas and Louisiana. 
 Mountain: Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Nevada, Utah, Colorado,
 Arizona and New Mexico. 
 Pacific: Hawaii, Alaska, Washington, Oregon and California.
 </td></tr>
	 </tbody>
	 </table>
	 
</body></html>

The U.S. House Price Index from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) increased 0.8% in September (6.1% y/y). This gain followed a much more modest 0.3% in August and was indeed the strongest monthly increase since March 2013. For [...]

U.S. FHFA Home Price Index Firmer in September

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
</head>

	 
 
 
 

 <a href="/comment/151125i_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/151125i.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/151125j_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/151125j.png"></a>



Consumers are exhibiting cautious spending behavior despite firm income gains. Personal consumption expenditures
improved 0.12% (2.9% y/y) in October, the same as September's 0.08% rise which was unrevised. These were the smallest gains
since January and missed expectations for a 0.3% rise in the Action Economics
Forecast Survey. Adjusted for inflation, spending inched 0.06% higher (2.7%
y/y). A 0.7% decline (+3.4% y/y) in real motor vehicle purchases held back the
overall rise, though it followed three months of increase. Constant dollar buying of recreational goods &amp;
vehicles made up that weakness with a 0.9% rise (8.4% y/y) after a 0.8%
increase. Home furnishings &amp; appliance purchases increased 0.6% (6.2% y/y)
in constant dollars following a 0.1% dip. In the nondurable goods sector, real
apparel purchases surged 0.8% (4.3% y/y) after a 0.5% rise. Real gasoline
purchases fell 0.3% (+2.0% y/y) after a 1.5% decline and the constant dollar value of eating out
dropped 0.8% (-0.3% y/y), down for the third month in the last four. Real spending on services
was unchanged (2.2% y/y) after a 0.2% increase. Real spending on recreation services rose
0.5% (0.3% y/y) after a 1.0% jump but constant dollar housing &amp; utilities
outlays fell 0.8% (+0.8% y/y). Health care spending advanced 0.4% (4.1% y/y) in real terms,
the same as the prior month.&nbsp;
Personal income improved 0.4% (4.6% y/y) for the third time in four
months. The increase matched expectations and reflected a 0.6% gain (4.9% y/y)
in wage &amp; salary
income after having been unchanged in September.
Rental income jumped 0.8% (7.2% y/y), the strongest increase in four months. Proprietors
earnings rose 0.3% (2.8% y/y) after a 0.4% rise. Dividend earnings jumped 0.9%
(5.5% y/y), the strongest rise in three months, but interest earnings fell 0.2%
(+3.4% y/y) following three straight 0.1% upticks. Transfer receipts improved
0.3% (4.9% y/y), the same in the prior month. The gain was held back
by a 2.8% decline (+1.0% y/y) in unemployment insurance benefits but Medicaid income rose
0.7% (7.6% y/y). Veterans benefits also rose 0.7% (12.1% y/y) and Medicare
payments improved 0.5% (4.0% y/y).&nbsp;
Disposable personal income jumped 0.4% and gains have been fairly steady for
the last six months. The 4.1% y/y rise matched growth during all of last year.
Adjusted for price inflation, take-home pay rose 3.9% y/y, up from the 2.7%
increase last year.
The personal savings rate improved to 5.6% from 5.3%, revised from
4.8%. The rate was the highest since 2012. Personal saving increased 30.7%
during the last twelve months.
The chain price index improved 0.1% (0.2% y/y) following two months of
slight decline. The index change was held back by a 0.2% dip (2.0% y/y) in
durable goods prices but food prices improved 0.2% (0.8% y/y) for the fourth straight
month. Nondurable goods prices eased slightly (-3.7% y/y) while energy prices
gained 0.2% (-18.4% y/y). Services prices
improved 0.1% (1.9% y/y) after two months of 0.2% rise. The price index excluding
food &amp; energy remained unchanged (1.3% y/y) after a 0.2% rise.
The personal income &amp; consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON
database with detail in the USNA database. The Action Economics figure is
in the AS1REPNA database.
Global Fallout from China's Industrial Slowdown from the Federal
Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available <a href="http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2015/november/global-fallout-from-china-industrial-slowdown/?utm_source=frbsf-home-economic-letter-title&amp;utm_medium=frbsf&amp;utm_campaign=economic-letter">here</a>.


 <a href="/comment/151125k_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/151125k.png"></a>

 <a href="/comment/151125l_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/151125l.png"></a>

<table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
	
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" >Personal Income &amp; Outlays
 (%)</th>
 <th scope="col" >Oct</th>
 <th scope="col" >Sep</th>
 <th scope="col" >Aug</th>
 <th scope="col" >Y/Y</th>
 <th scope="col" >2014</th>
 <th scope="col" >2013</th>
 <th scope="col" >2012</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Personal Income</td>
 <td >0.4</td>
 <td >0.2</td>
 <td >0.4</td>
 <td >4.6</td>
 <td >4.4</td>
 <td >1.1</td>
 <td >5.0</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;Wages &amp; Salaries</td>
 <td >0.6</td>
 <td >0.0</td>
 <td >0.4</td>
 <td >4.9</td>
 <td >5.1</td>
 <td >2.7</td>
 <td >4.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Disposable Personal Income</td>
 <td >0.4</td>
 <td >0.2</td>
 <td >0.4</td>
 <td >4.1</td>
 <td >4.2</td>
 <td >-0.1</td>
 <td >5.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >Personal Consumption Expenditures</td>
 <td >0.1</td>
 <td >0.1</td>
 <td >0.3</td>
 <td >2.9</td>
 <td >4.2</td>
 <td >3.1</td>
 <td >3.4</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Personal Saving Rate</td>
 <td >5.6</td>
 <td >5.3</td>
 <td >5.2</td>
 <td >4.5 
 (Oct. '14)</td>
 <td >4.8</td>
 <td >4.8</td>
 <td >7.6</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >PCE Chain Price Index</td>
 <td >0.1</td>
 <td >-0.1</td>
 <td >-0.0</td>
 <td >0.2</td>
 <td >1.4</td>
 <td >1.4</td>
 <td >1.9</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;Less Food &amp; Energy</td>
 <td >0.0</td>
 <td >0.2</td>
 <td >0.1</td>
 <td >1.3</td>
 <td >1.5</td>
 <td >1.5</td>
 <td >1.9</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >Real Disposable Income</td>
 <td >0.4</td>
 <td >0.3</td>
 <td >0.4</td>
 <td >3.9</td>
 <td >2.7</td>
 <td >-1.4</td>
 <td >3.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Real Personal Consumption Expenditures</td>
 <td >0.1</td>
 <td >0.1</td>
 <td >0.3</td>
 <td >2.7</td>
 <td >2.7</td>
 <td >1.7</td>
 <td >1.5</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
</table>


</html>

Consumers are exhibiting cautious spending behavior despite firm income gains. Personal consumption expenditures improved 0.12% (2.9% y/y) in October, the same as September's 0.08% rise which was unrevised. These were the smallest [...]

U.S. Personal Spending Inches Higher as Income Strengthens

Sandy Batten

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
</head>
<body>
	 
 
 
 

 <a href="/comment/151125e_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/151125e.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/151125f_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/151125f.png"></a>

Durable goods orders started the third quarter strongly, jumping up 3.0%/m (0.5% y/y) in October against an expectation (Action Economics Forecast Survey) of a 1.5% m/m increase. And the 1.2% m/m decline initially reported for orders in September was revised up to a 0.8% m/m drop. A 81% m/m surge in nondefense aircraft orders more than accounted for the October increase in overall orders (this was offset slightly by a decline in motor vehicle orders). Excluding orders in the transportation sector, orders rose a more modest, but still larger-than-expected, 0.5% m/m in October (-2.4% y/y) following an upwardly revised 0.1% m/m decline in September.

Especially encouraging was the performance of core capital goods orders (capital goods orders excluding defense and aircraft) in October. They rose 1.3% m/m (0.4% y/y) with the initially reported 0.1% m/m decline in September revised up to a 0.4% m/m increase. With the September revision and October jump, core capital goods orders in October stood more than 6% at an annual rate above the 3Q average, auguring for some further improvement in business capital spending in the fourth quarter. However, the strength in orders has yet to be reflected in actual shipments of capital goods. Core capital goods shipments (a real-time proxy for capex) slipped 0.4% m/m in October (-0.5% y/y) but after an upwardly revised 0.7% m/m rise in September. So, the October level of shipments was about equal to the 3Q average. Hopefully, the rise in capital goods orders will soon translate in increased shipments.

Across the major sectors, apart from the 8.0% m/m increase in transportation orders, overall orders were also lifted by a 1.6% m/m rise in machinery orders and a 1.8% m/m increase in computer orders. Orders for electrical equipment ( 1.1% m/m) exerted the largest drag on overall orders in October.

In other parts of the report, shipments of durable goods fell 1.0% m/m (0.1% y/y) in October following a 0.2% m/m increase in September. Unfilled orders rebounded, rising 0.3% m/m (-2.0% y/y) after a 0.5% m/m fall in September. And inventories slipped 0.2% /m (0.7% y/y), the fifth monthly decline in the past six months.

The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.

<a href="/comment/151125g_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/151125g.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/151125h_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/151125h.png"></a>

<table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>

 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" >Durable Goods NAICS
 Classification</th>
 <th>Oct</th>
 <th>Sep</th>
 <th>Aug</th>
 <th>Oct Y/Y</th>
 <th>2014</th>
 <th>2013</th>
 <th>2012</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >New Orders (SA, %)</td>
 <td >2.99</td>
 <td >-0.82</td>
 <td >-2.94</td>
 <td >0.51</td>
 <td >6.8</td>
 <td >2.2</td>
 <td >6.3</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Transportation</td>
 <td >8.04</td>
 <td >-2.24</td>
 <td >-6.88</td>
 <td >6.53</td>
 <td >6.1</td>
 <td >6.5</td>
 <td >16.6</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >Total Excluding Transportation</td>
 <td >0.53</td>
 <td >-0.11</td>
 <td >-0.85</td>
 <td >-2.37</td>
 <td >7.2</td>
 <td >0.1</td>
 <td >2.0</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Nondefense Capital Goods</td>
 <td >13.23</td>
 <td >-6.05</td>
 <td >-4.62</td>
 <td >3.8</td>
 <td >6.6</td>
 <td >2.8</td>
 <td >10.8</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Excluding Aircraft</td>
 <td >1.32</td>
 <td >0.39</td>
 <td >-1.45</td>
 <td >0.36</td>
 <td >6.3</td>
 <td >-1.0</td>
 <td >7.6</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Shipments</td>
 <td >-1.02</td>
 <td >0.24</td>
 <td >-0.50</td>
 <td >0.09</td>
 <td >4.8</td>
 <td >2.0</td>
 <td >6.3</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >Inventories</td>
 <td >-0.2</td>
 <td >-0.6</td>
 <td >-0.2</td>
 <td >0.7</td>
 <td >6.1</td>
 <td >2.4</td>
 <td >3.8</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Unfilled Orders</td>
 <td >0.3</td>
 <td >-0.5</td>
 <td >-0.3</td>
 <td >-2.1</td>
 <td >11.4</td>
 <td >6.4</td>
 <td >7.5</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
 </table>
 
</body></html>

Durable goods orders started the third quarter strongly, jumping up 3.0%/m (0.5% y/y) in October against an expectation (Action Economics Forecast Survey) of a 1.5% m/m increase. And the 1.2% m/m decline initially reported for orders [...]

Durable Goods Orders Rebound More Strongly Than Expected in October

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
</head>

	 
 
 
 

 <a href="/comment/151125a_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/151125a.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/151125b_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/151125b.png"></a>


Initial claims for unemployment insurance unexpectedly fell to 260,000 in the week ending November 21 from a slightly upwardly revised 272,000 the previous week. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had looked for an unchanged reading of 271,000. The four-week moving average was unchanged at 271,000, still hovering around its 15-year low. When adjusted by the size of the labor market or population, the current level of claims is the lowest in its more than 65-year history.
In the week ending November 14, continuing claims for unemployment insurance (reported with a one-week lag) edged up to 2.207 million (but were still down 5.6% from a year earlier). The four-week moving average also edged up to 2.182 million but remained near a 15-year low.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.6%, its lowest reading since June 2000.
The insured rate of unemployment across states continued to vary within a wide range. The lowest was in South Dakota (0.3%), followed by Nebraska (0.5%) and North Dakota (0.6%). At the other end of the spectrum, the highest rates were in Alaska (3.6%), New Jersey (2.4%) and Pennsylvania (2.1%). The by-state data are not seasonally adjusted and reported with a two-week lag relative to the headline figure.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY
database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual
states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action
Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.


 <a href="/comment/151125c_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/151125c.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/151125d_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/151125d.png"></a>


<table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>

 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" 0801 >Unemployment Insurance (000s)</th>
 <th 0801>11/21/15</th>
 <th 0801>11/14/15</th>
 <th 0801>11/07/15</th>
 <th 0801>Y/Y %</th>
 <th 0801 >2014</th>
 <th 0801 >2013</th>
 <th 0801 >2012</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" 0801 >Initial Claims</td>
 <td 0801 >260</td>
 <td 0801 >272</td>
 <td 0801 >276</td>
 <td 0801 >-14.19</td>
 <td 0801 >307</td>
 <td 0801 >342</td>
 <td 0801 >372</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" 0801 >Continuing Claims</td>
 <td 0801 >--</td>
 <td 0801 >2,207</td>
 <td 0801 >2,173</td>
 <td 0801 >-5.64</td>
 <td 0801 >2,607</td>
 <td 0801 >2,978</td>
 <td 0801 >3,308</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" 0801 >Insured Unemployment Rate (%)</td>
 <td 0801 >--</td>
 <td 0801 >1.6</td>
 <td 0801 >1.6</td>
 <td 0801 >
 1.8 
 (Nov. 2014)
 </td>
 <td 0801 >2.0</td>
 <td 0801 >2.3</td>
 <td 0801 >2.6</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
</table>


</html>

Initial claims for unemployment insurance unexpectedly fell to 260,000 in the week ending November 21 from a slightly upwardly revised 272,000 the previous week. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had looked for an unchanged reading [...]

US Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Fall Unexpectedly

<html>

<head>
<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=windows-1252">
<meta name="GENERATOR" content="Microsoft FrontPage 4.0">
<meta name="ProgId" content="FrontPage.Editor.Document">
<title>Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests Moderate Economic Growth by
Tom Moeller&nbsp; October 22</title>
</head>



 


Consumers are exhibiting cautious spending behavior despite
firm income gains. Personal consumption expenditures
improved 0.12% (2.9% y/y) in October, near September's 0.08% rise which was
unrevised. These were the smallest gains
since January and missed expectations for a 0.3% rise in the Action Economics
Forecast Survey. Adjusted for inflation, spending inched 0.06% higher (2.7%
y/y). A 0.7% decline (+3.4% y/y) in real motor vehicle purchases held back the
overall rise, though it followed three months of increase. Constant dollar buying of recreational goods &amp;
vehicles made up that weakness with a 0.9% rise (8.4% y/y) after a 0.8%
increase. Home furnishings &amp; appliance purchases increased 0.6% (6.2% y/y)
in constant dollars following a 0.1% dip. In the nondurable goods sector, real
apparel purchases surged 0.8% (4.3% y/y) after a 0.5% rise. Real gasoline
purchases fell 0.3% (+2.0% y/y) after a 1.5% decline and the constant dollar value of eating out
dropped 0.8% (-0.3% y/y), down for the third month in the last four. Real spending on services
was unchanged (2.2% y/y) after a 0.2% increase. Real spending on recreation services rose
0.5% (0.3% y/y) after a 1.0% jump but constant dollar housing &amp; utilities
outlays fell 0.8% (+0.8% y/y). Health care spending advanced 0.4% (4.1% y/y) in real terms,
the same as the prior month.&nbsp;
Personal income improved 0.4% (4.6% y/y) for the third time in four
months. The increase matched expectations and reflected a 0.6% gain (4.9% y/y)
in wage &amp; salary
income after having been unchanged in September.
Rental income jumped 0.8% (7.2% y/y), the strongest increase in four months. Proprietors
earnings rose 0.3% (2.8% y/y) after a 0.4% rise. Dividend earnings jumped 0.9%
(5.5% y/y), the strongest rise in three months, but interest earnings fell 0.2%
(+3.4% y/y) following three straight 0.1% upticks. Transfer receipts improved
0.3% (4.9% y/y), the same in the prior month. The gain was held back
by a 2.8% decline (+1.0% y/y) in unemployment insurance benefits but Medicaid income rose
0.7% (7.6% y/y). Veterans benefits also rose 0.7% (12.1% y/y) and Medicare
payments improved 0.5% (4.0% y/y).&nbsp;
Disposable personal income jumped 0.4% and gains have been fairly steady for
the last six months. The 4.1% y/y rise matched growth during all of last year.
Adjusted for price inflation, take-home pay rose 3.9% y/y, up from the 2.7%
increase last year.
The personal savings rate improved to 5.6% from 5.3%, revised from
4.8%. The rate was the highest since 2012. Personal saving increased 30.7%
during the last twelve months.
The chain price index improved 0.1% (0.2% y/y) following two months of
slight decline. The index change was held back by a 0.2% dip (2.0% y/y) in
durable goods prices but food prices improved 0.2% (0.8% y/y) for the fourth straight
month. Nondurable goods prices eased slightly (-3.7% y/y) while energy prices
gained 0.2% (-18.4% y/y). Services prices
improved 0.1% (1.9% y/y) after two months of 0.2% rise. The price index excluding
food &amp; energy remained unchanged (1.3% y/y) after a 0.2% rise.
The personal income &amp; consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON
database with detail in the USNA database. The Action Economics figure is
in the AS1REPNA database.
Global Fallout from China's Industrial Slowdown from the Federal
Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here <a href="http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2015/november/global-fallout-from-china-industrial-slowdown/?utm_source=frbsf-home-economic-letter-title&amp;utm_medium=frbsf&amp;utm_campaign=economic-letter">http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2015/november/global-fallout-from-china-industrial-slowdown/?utm_source=frbsf-home-economic-letter-title&amp;utm_medium=frbsf&amp;utm_campaign=economic-letter</a>
<table class="centered" border="0" cellspacing="0" width="1871">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" width="949">Personal Income &amp; Outlays
 (%)</th>
 <th scope="col" width="131">Oct</th>
 <th scope="col" width="131">Sep</th>
 <th scope="col" width="131">Aug</th>
 <th scope="col" width="131">Y/Y</th>
 <th scope="col" width="131">2014</th>
 <th scope="col" width="131">2013</th>
 <th scope="col" width="132">2012</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="949">Personal Income</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">4.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">4.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">1.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="132">5.0</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="949">&nbsp;&nbsp;Wages &amp; Salaries</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">4.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">5.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">2.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="132">4.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="949">Disposable Personal Income</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">4.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">4.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">-0.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="132">5.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="949">Personal Consumption Expenditures</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">2.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">4.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">3.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="132">3.4</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="949">Personal Saving Rate</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">5.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">5.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">5.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">4.5 
 (Oct. '14)</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">4.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">4.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="132">7.6</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="949">PCE Chain Price Index</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">-0.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">-0.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">1.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">1.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="132">1.9</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="949">&nbsp;&nbsp;Less Food &amp; Energy</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">1.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">1.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">1.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="132">1.9</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="949">Real Disposable Income</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">3.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">2.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">-1.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="132">3.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="949">Real Personal Consumption Expenditures</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">2.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">2.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">1.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="132">1.5</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
</table>
&nbsp;
&nbsp;
U.S. New Home Sales Rise M/M but Tread Water This
Year 
by <a href="http://haver.com/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a>&nbsp;&nbsp;November
25, 2015
Sales of new single-family homes increased 10.7% during October to 495,000
(AR) from 447,000 in September, revised from 468,000. The gain left sales up
4.9% y/y but unchanged since December. Sales of 500,000 had been expected in the
Action Economics Forecast Survey. The rise contrasts to Monday's report of a
3.7% decline in existing single-family homes.
The median price of a new home plunged 8.5% from September and was down 6.0%
y/y. The average sales price declined 1.0% m/m and was off 4.7% y/y.
Home sales in the Northeast more-than-doubled to 40,000 following a sharp
decline in September. Sales were at the highest level since January 2010. Sales
in the South also were firm, rising 8.9% to 281,000 (5.2% y/y). Sales in the
Midwest gained 5.3% to 60,000 but were down 4.8% y/y. Home sales in the West
eased 0.9% to 114,000 and were off 2.6% y/y.
The inventory of unsold homes increased 8.7% y/y and there was 5.5 months
supply at the current sales rate. That figure is up slightly from 4.8 months at
the beginning of the year. The median number of months a new home was for sale
fell to a record low of 2.8.&nbsp; 
The data in this report are available in Haver's USECON database. The
consensus expectation figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is
available in the AS1REPNA database.
Five Questions Related to U.S. Monetary Policy is the title of St.
Louis Fed President &amp; CEO James Bullard's speech and it can be found
here&nbsp; <a href="https://www.stlouisfed.org/news-releases/2015/11/20/st-louis-feds-bullard-discusses-five-questions-related-to-us-monetary-policy">https://www.stlouisfed.org/news-releases/2015/11/20/st-louis-feds-bullard-discusses-five-questions-related-to-us-monetary-policy</a>
&nbsp;
<table class="centered" border="0" cellspacing="0" width="1871">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" width="878">U.S. New Single-Family
 Home Sales (SAAR, 000s)</th>
 <th scope="col" width="141">Oct</th>
 <th scope="col" width="141">Sep</th>
 <th scope="col" width="141">Aug</th>
 <th scope="col" width="141">Y/Y %, SA</th>
 <th scope="col" width="141">2014</th>
 <th scope="col" width="142">2013</th>
 <th scope="col" width="142">2012</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="878">Total</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">495</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">447</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">513</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">4.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">440</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">430</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">368</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="878">&nbsp; Northeast</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">40</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">17</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">32</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">60.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">28</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">31</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">29</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="878">&nbsp; Midwest</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">60</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">57</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">59</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">-4.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">58</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">61</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">47</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="878">&nbsp; South</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">281</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">258</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">297</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">5.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">244</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">233</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">195</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="878">&nbsp; West</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">114</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">115</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">125</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">-2.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">110</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">106</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">97</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="878">Median Price (NSA, $)</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">281,500</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">307,800</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">294,600</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">-6.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">283,775</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">265,092</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">242,108</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
</table>





</html>

Personal consumption expenditures improved 0.12% (2.9% y/y) in October, near September's 0.08% rise which was unrevised. These were the smallest gains since January and missed expectations for a 0.3% rise in the Action Economics [...]

<html>

<head>
<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=windows-1252">
<meta name="GENERATOR" content="Microsoft FrontPage 4.0">
<meta name="ProgId" content="FrontPage.Editor.Document">
<title>Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests Moderate Economic Growth by
Tom Moeller&nbsp; October 22</title>
</head>



 


Consumers are exhibiting cautious spending behavior despite
firm income gains. Personal consumption expenditures
improved 0.12% (2.9% y/y) in October, the same as September's rise which was
unrevised. These were the smallest gains
since January and missed expectations for a 0.3% rise in the Action Economics
Forecast Survey. Adjusted for inflation, spending inched 0.06% higher (2.7%
y/y). A 0.7% decline (+3.4% y/y) in real motor vehicle purchases held back the
overall rise, though it followed three months of increase. Constant dollar buying of recreational goods &amp;
vehicles made up that weakness with a 0.9% rise (8.4% y/y) after a 0.8%
increase. Home furnishings &amp; appliance purchases increased 0.6% (6.2% y/y)
in constant dollars following a 0.1% dip. In the nondurable goods sector, real
apparel purchases surged 0.8% (4.3% y/y) after a 0.5% rise. Real gasoline
purchases fell 0.3% (+2.0% y/y) after a 1.5% decline and the constant dollar value of eating out
dropped 0.8% (-0.3% y/y), down for the third month in the last four. Real spending on services
was unchanged (2.2% y/y) after a 0.2% increase. Real spending on recreation services rose
0.5% (0.3% y/y) after a 1.0% jump but constant dollar housing &amp; utilities
outlays fell 0.8% (+0.8% y/y). Health care spending advanced 0.4% (4.1% y/y) in real terms,
the same as the prior month.&nbsp;
Personal income improved 0.4% (4.6% y/y) for the third time in four
months. The increase matched expectations and reflected a 0.6% gain (4.9% y/y)
in wage &amp; salary
income after having been unchanged in September.
Rental income jumped 0.8% (7.2% y/y), the strongest increase in four months. Proprietors
earnings rose 0.3% (2.8% y/y) after a 0.4% rise. Dividend earnings jumped 0.9%
(5.5% y/y), the strongest rise in three months, but interest earnings fell 0.2%
(+3.4% y/y) following three straight 0.1% upticks. Transfer receipts improved
0.3% (4.9% y/y), the same in the prior month. The gain was held back
by a 2.8% decline (+1.0% y/y) in unemployment insurance benefits but Medicaid income rose
0.7% (7.6% y/y). Veterans benefits also rose 0.7% (12.1% y/y) and Medicare
payments improved 0.5% (4.0% y/y).&nbsp;
Disposable personal income jumped 0.4% and gains have been fairly steady for
the last six months. The 4.1% y/y rise matched growth during all of last year.
Adjusted for price inflation, take-home pay rose 3.9% y/y, up from the 2.7%
increase last year.
The personal savings rate improved to 5.6% from 5.3%, revised from
4.8%. The rate was the highest since 2012. Personal saving increased 30.7%
during the last twelve months.
The chain price index improved 0.1% (0.2% y/y) following two months of
slight decline. The index change was held back by a 0.2% dip (2.0% y/y) in
durable goods prices but food prices improved 0.2% (0.8% y/y) for the fourth straight
month. Nondurable goods prices eased slightly (-3.7% y/y) while energy prices
gained 0.2% (-18.4% y/y). Services prices
improved 0.1% (1.9% y/y) after two months of 0.2% rise. The price index excluding
food &amp; energy remained unchanged (1.3% y/y) after a 0.2% rise.
The personal income &amp; consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON
database with detail in the USNA database. The Action Economics figure is
in the AS1REPNA database.
Global Fallout from China's Industrial Slowdown from the Federal
Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here <a href="http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2015/november/global-fallout-from-china-industrial-slowdown/?utm_source=frbsf-home-economic-letter-title&amp;utm_medium=frbsf&amp;utm_campaign=economic-letter">http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2015/november/global-fallout-from-china-industrial-slowdown/?utm_source=frbsf-home-economic-letter-title&amp;utm_medium=frbsf&amp;utm_campaign=economic-letter</a>
<table class="centered" border="0" cellspacing="0" width="1871">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" width="949">Personal Income &amp; Outlays
 (%)</th>
 <th scope="col" width="131">Oct</th>
 <th scope="col" width="131">Sep</th>
 <th scope="col" width="131">Aug</th>
 <th scope="col" width="131">Y/Y</th>
 <th scope="col" width="131">2014</th>
 <th scope="col" width="131">2013</th>
 <th scope="col" width="132">2012</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="949">Personal Income</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">4.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">4.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">1.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="132">5.0</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="949">&nbsp;&nbsp;Wages &amp; Salaries</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">4.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">5.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">2.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="132">4.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="949">Disposable Personal Income</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">4.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">4.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">-0.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="132">5.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="949">Personal Consumption Expenditures</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">2.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">4.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">3.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="132">3.4</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="949">Personal Saving Rate</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">5.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">5.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">5.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">4.5 
 (Oct. '14)</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">4.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">4.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="132">7.6</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="949">PCE Chain Price Index</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">-0.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">-0.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">1.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">1.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="132">1.9</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="949">&nbsp;&nbsp;Less Food &amp; Energy</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">1.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">1.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">1.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="132">1.9</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="949">Real Disposable Income</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">3.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">2.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">-1.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="132">3.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="949">Real Personal Consumption Expenditures</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">0.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">2.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">2.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="131">1.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="132">1.5</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
</table>
&nbsp;
&nbsp;
U.S. New Home Sales Weaken but Prices Rebound 
by <a href="http://haver.com/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a>&nbsp;&nbsp;November
25, 2015
Recent housing market data are throwing off mixed signals. On the heels of
Thursday's report that existing home sales in September neared a nine-year high,
today's indication that new single-family home sales fell 11.5% last month to
468,000 (AR) left them up 2.0% y/y as the prior two months were revised lower.
Sales were at the lowest level since November. Expectations had been for 547,000
sales in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
The median price of a new single-family rose 2.7% (13.5% y/y) to $296,000.
The reversal of an August decline left them at this year's highest level and
one-third firmer than the 2010 average. The average price of a new single-family
home jumped 6.2% (14.1% y/y) to $364,000, the highest level since December.
Home sales were notably weak last month in the Northeast as they fell 61.8%
to 13,000 (-56.7% y/y). Sales in other regions of the country also declined but
to lesser degrees. In the South, sales were off 8.7% to 274,000 but rose 8.3%
y/y. Sales in the Midwest fell 8.3% both m/m and y/y to 55,000 and sales in the
West declined 6.7% to 126,000 (+8.6% y/y).
The easing of home sales prompted a rise in the supply of homes on the market
to 5.8 months at the current sales rate, the highest level since July of last
year. Working the other way, however, the median number of months a home was on
the market declined to 3.3, the least since February.
Five Questions Related to U.S. Monetary Policy is the title of St.
Louis Fed President &amp; CEO James Bullard's speech and it can be found
here&nbsp; <a href="https://www.stlouisfed.org/news-releases/2015/11/20/st-louis-feds-bullard-discusses-five-questions-related-to-us-monetary-policy">https://www.stlouisfed.org/news-releases/2015/11/20/st-louis-feds-bullard-discusses-five-questions-related-to-us-monetary-policy</a>
The data in this report are available in Haver's USECON database. The
consensus expectation figure from the Action Economics survey is available in
the AS1REPNA database.
<table class="centered" border="0" cellspacing="0" width="1871">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" width="878">U.S. New Single-Family
 Home Sales (SAAR, 000s)</th>
 <th scope="col" width="141">Oct</th>
 <th scope="col" width="141">Sep</th>
 <th scope="col" width="141">Aug</th>
 <th scope="col" width="141">Oct Y/Y %</th>
 <th scope="col" width="141">2014</th>
 <th scope="col" width="142">2013</th>
 <th scope="col" width="142">2012</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="878">Total</td>
 <td align="center" width="141"></td>
 <td align="center" width="141">468</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">529</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">2.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">440</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">430</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">368</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="878">&nbsp; Northeast</td>
 <td align="center" width="141"></td>
 <td align="center" width="141">13</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">34</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">-56.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">28</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">31</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">29</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="878">&nbsp; Midwest</td>
 <td align="center" width="141"></td>
 <td align="center" width="141">55</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">60</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">-8.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">58</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">61</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">47</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="878">&nbsp; South</td>
 <td align="center" width="141"></td>
 <td align="center" width="141">274</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">300</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">8.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">244</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">233</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">195</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="878">&nbsp; West</td>
 <td align="center" width="141"></td>
 <td align="center" width="141">126</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">135</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">8.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">110</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">106</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">97</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="878">Median Price (NSA, $)</td>
 <td align="center" width="141"></td>
 <td align="center" width="141">296,900</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">289,100</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">13.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="141">283,775</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">265,092</td>
 <td align="center" width="142">242,108</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
</table>





</html>

Personal consumption expenditures improved 0.12% (2.9% y/y) in October, the same as September's rise which was unrevised. These were the smallest gains since January and missed expectations for a 0.3% rise in the Action Economics [...]

US and China big leaders in adoption of AI models

Robust US demand for advanced technology products

China's export growth rotating away from the US

More pronounced upward revisions in countries more exposed to AI investment

Stable job openings and hiring rates point to cautious hiring

Global freight costs are on the rise while supply chain pressures are contained

Accelerating positive economic surprises in the G10 are boosting the global economy

Considerably more monetary ease expected from US and UK as Japan tightens

Tighter US immigration enforcement adversely impacting labor force

Economic policy uncertainty, while still elevated, is declining

Gradual disinflation and easier monetary policies across advanced economies

Largest October layoffs since 2003, led by technology

Subdued global shipping costs not yet pointing to supply chain problems

PMIs show still-elevated but slowing US inflation

AI boosting US investment in data centers

US productivity growth has been significantly faster than in other major economies

Consumers' short-term US inflation expectations still elevated while longer-term expectations of financial markets are steady

US financial markets have gotten used to elevated policy uncertainty

FOMC now expects more rate cuts going forward than in June

China gaining ASEAN exports while US exports slump

Job openings less than the number unemployed in July for first time since 2021

Reaccelerating goods price inflation along with sticky services inflation clouds the outlook

Falling oil prices aren't pulling down inflation expectations, pointing to a boost from increased tariffs

Equity market exuberance outpacing macroeconomic data

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters expect further sizable monetary easing

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

Service Health

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

London

Singapore

Tokyo

New York

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Featured Data Additions

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

Andrew Cates

**The Global Monetary Policy Consensus**
The latest Blue Chip Financial Forecasts survey points to a notably more balanced global monetary policy outlook over the coming year. In contrast to the pronounced easing bias that dominated much of the past two years, expectations are now more symmetric, with a similar number of central banks projected to raise rates as to ease policy. Japan is seen delivering further tightening, while Canada is expected to initiate an interest rate hike in coming months. In Australia’s case, this tightening guidance was reinforced this week, with the Reserve Bank lifting its policy rate by 25 basis points. Elsewhere, and in contrast, the euro area, UK and US are expected to move in the opposite direction.

260205Z1.jpg

**US manufacturing activity**
The second chart underscores the recent improvement in US economic momentum, highlighted by an unexpected surge in the January ISM manufacturing PMI. After spending much of the past year hovering below the 50 threshold consistent with stagnation, the index jumped sharply back into expansionary territory, signalling a renewed pickup in industrial activity. This rebound has coincided with a broader run of stronger-than-anticipated US economic data, as reflected in the upswing in the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index. Together, these developments point to a US economy that continues to display notable resilience, complicating expectations of monetary easing in the near term.

260205Z2.jpg

**US Bank Lending Standards and Financial Stress** 
The next chart turns to US financial conditions, highlighting the latest readings from the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey. The net proportion of banks tightening lending standards on corporate loans and mortgages is now more modest by historical standards, and well below the extremes seen during past episodes of financial stress. Some easing in credit headwinds has occurred alongside relatively subdued readings on the OFR Financial Stress Index, which continues to hover below its long-run average. Together, these indicators suggest that the US financial system has continued to avoid the kind of acute stress typically associated with sharp slowdowns in credit availability—helping to underpin the recent resilience in economic activity.

260205Z3.jpg

**Semiconductor Sales**
The fourth chart highlights the renewed surge in global semiconductor sales, with momentum strengthening sharply over recent months across the Americas, China and the broader Asia-Pacific region. After the cyclical downturn in 2022–23, sales have rebounded to fresh highs, reflecting a powerful revival in demand for advanced chips and related technologies. This upswing has taken place amid intense investor preoccupation with artificial intelligence, with expectations that AI adoption will drive a sustained wave of capital spending on data centres, cloud infrastructure and high-performance computing. In contrast, semiconductor sales in Europe remain comparatively subdued, reflecting the region’s smaller footprint in high-end chip manufacturing, weaker industrial demand, and the ongoing impact of slower economic growth. While semiconductors are inherently cyclical, markets have increasingly interpreted the current rebound elsewhere as structural rather than purely cyclical—underpinned by the belief that AI represents a transformative and durable source of demand growth.

260205Z4.jpg

**Large-Scale AI Models**
The next chart illustrates the rapid proliferation of large-scale AI models globally, with newly updated data for 2025 pointing to a further sharp acceleration in development activity. The United States continues to lead by a wide margin, while China has also seen a steep rise in model deployment in recent years, underscoring the intensifying technological competition between the two economies. Growth in the UK and other regions has been more modest by comparison, highlighting the increasingly concentrated nature of AI innovation. Taken together with the surge in semiconductor sales, these trends help explain the market’s strong preoccupation with AI as a potential driver of future productivity and investment cycles—although the geographic concentration of activity also raises questions about the uneven distribution of any resulting economic gains.

260205Z5.jpg

**An AI Bubble?** 
The final chart draws on the latest Blue Chip Financial Forecasts special questions, highlighting market participants’ perceptions of the economic gains likely to be delivered by artificial intelligence. While a sizeable share of respondents still believe that financial markets may be overestimating AI’s potential benefits, an increasing proportion now judge current expectations to be broadly accurate, with only a small minority viewing the gains as underestimated. Notably, this represents a softening in scepticism compared with the survey results from last month, when concerns about excessive market optimism were more pronounced. The shift suggests a growing acceptance that AI-related investment and innovation could translate into meaningful economic impacts—though uncertainty remains high around the scale, timing and distribution of these gains.

260205Z6.jpg

Financial markets have experienced renewed gyrations in recent weeks, as shifting geopolitical risks, questions around Federal Reserve independence, renewed talk of US dollar “debasement,” and ongoing enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence have combined to drive volatility across asset classes. These cross-currents have also contributed to a degree of rotation away from high-flying technology stocks, as investors reassess valuations and the timing of anticipated AI-driven gains. Against this backdrop, the charts in this week’s COTW highlight several important themes. Policy rate expectations now appear more balanced globally, marking a clear shift away from the one-sided easing bias of the past two years (chart 1), even as resilient US data—underscored by the unexpected jump in the January ISM index and a run of positive economic surprises—continues to complicate the outlook for monetary easing (chart 2). At the same time, US financial conditions remain relatively benign, with limited evidence of widespread credit stress or aggressive tightening in lending standards (chart 3). Meanwhile, the sharp rebound in semiconductor sales and the accelerating rollout of large-scale AI models underscore why investors remain so focused on the AI narrative, even as Europe lags behind due to weaker industrial momentum and a smaller footprint in advanced chip production (charts 4 and 5). Finally, while some scepticism about AI’s ultimate economic impact persists, the latest survey results suggest a moderation in concerns that markets are materially overestimating its gains (chart 6). Taken together, these developments paint a picture of a US economy that remains more resilient than many had anticipated, set against a financial landscape increasingly shaped by powerful—if sometimes competing—narratives around geopolitics, policy, and technological transformation.

Charts of the Week: Balanced Policy, Resilient Data and AI Narratives

260206E.jpg

With the December report, Germany’s production and some of the early European industrial production data reveal a good deal of chaos in terms of the embedded trends. On the month, German industrial production fell by 1.9%, with consumer goods output up by 0.5%, capital goods output falling by 5.3%, and intermediate goods output falling by 1.2%. Among the early reporters in the monetary union—France, Spain, and Portugal—only Spain showed an increase in manufacturing IP in December; however, Spanish industrial production is notoriously volatile.

**Broader IP trends in Germany and elsewhere in Europe**
As for other early industrial production reporters, both Sweden and Norway showed strong-to-solid gains in December and each of them showed two-months of gains in a row. Beyond that, sequential growth rates from 12-months to six-months to three-months show accelerating growth in German consumer goods output against decelerating growth for intermediate goods. Real manufacturing output and real sales show mixed results- no clear trends; however, real manufacturing orders in Germany are off the map strong. 

**German manufacturing/industrial Surveys**
German industrial surveys from the IFO for manufacturing shows persistent weakening as well as for IFO manufacturing expectations, and in the EU Commission industrial index in the last three months. More broadly, Germany shows some modest but ongoing step up all of these based on average levels from 12-months to six-months to three-months for IFO expectations and the EU Commission industrial readings with mixed results for other survey readings.

**IP trends in Europe**
For the early reporting EMU members France, Spain, and Portugal, who report industrial production trends, each show mixed monthly trends against ongoing decelerations for manufacturing output over the broader sequential periods (12-month, to 6-month, to 3-month). However, for other Europe, Sweden and Norway, manufacturing trends are steadily accelerating on this broader timeline.

**A feeling of ‘Deja- What?’**
These combinations of opposed trends mixed with a lack of trends leave us with this sense of confusion about what's going on in manufacturing. For Germany, the extreme strength in orders is reassuring since orders should be forward-looking rather than backward-looking or even contemporaneous. But orders can also be a fickle series and so we'll have to watch it to see if the trends for German orders hold up.

**Current quarter-What’s been happening now**
In addition, current quarter growth for Germany actually looks quite good with industrial production up 3.7% at an annual rate in the current quarter, led by output increases in manufacturing against a decline in the intermediate goods output. Real orders in the quarter are surging at a 44% growth rate, while real sales in manufacturing only had a 0.1% uptick at an annual rate. The industrial indicators for Germany in the quarter show weakness or flatness with the only exception being IFO manufacturing expectations that advanced by a small amount. The three EMU members who report industrial production data show positive growth in the just-completed quarter except for Portugal where industrial production is falling at a 2.9% rate in the fourth quarter. Sweden and Norway, European countries but not monetary union members, show a strong 22% annual rate gain in Sweden against the 3% annual rate decline in Norway.

260206.jpg

**Rankings**
**How growth rates stack up…**
Moving away from short-term trends, the rankings of growth rates of these various metrics using 12-month growth rates on data back to 2006, show below-median growth rates for German industrial production and all three of its major sectors. All of them have rankings below the 50% mark where the median resides. Germany’s manufacturing output growth rate is below its median as is the growth of real sales; and once again real manufacturing orders break out and show a stunning 90th percentile standing, extremely strong compared to other growth rates on this period.

**Indicator rankings are poor**
However, the survey based industrial indicators for Germany, ranked based on their index levels, are all extremely weak and much weaker than German sector or other German metrics. The strongest indicator reading is the 29th percentile standing for IFO manufacturing expectations while the current ZEW index, IFO manufacturing index, and the EU Commission industrial readings, all reside below their 15th percentile. The survey rankings suggest that industrial sentiment is in much worse shape than activity and growth.

**IP elsewhere in Europe**
However, the growth ranking of manufacturing industrial production for the reporting EMU members and other European members are all quite solid, with percentile standings ranging from the 66th up to the 93rd percentile.

**Summing up**
From these data, Germany emerges as the weak economy compared with historic norms based on industrial production growth and indicator readings. However, there's a glimpse of positivity from the growth of real orders, and at the same time, some concern about ongoing sentiment for manufacturing in Germany as distinct from actual performance.

Germany

German IP Reveals Chaotic Trends

Winnie Tapasanun

260205X15.jpg

260205Y15.jpg

**Total job openings** fell 5.6% m/m (-12.9% y/y) to 6.542 million in December after a downwardly revised 7.0% decline to 6.928 million in November (previously -4.1% m/m; 7.146 million), according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. December marked the third consecutive m/m fall and the lowest level since September 2020. The job openings rate declined to 3.9% in December, the lowest since April 2020, from 4.2% in November, remaining below a record-high 7.4% in March 2022. This rate is calculated as the ratio of job openings to total nonfarm employment plus openings. Significantly, the drop in job openings also lowered the **ratio of job openings to unemployed individuals** to 0.872 in December—the lowest since March 2021—from 0.890 in November, down from 1.085 in December 2024 and a pre-pandemic 1.211 in February 2020. A reading of 0.872 implies there were about 0.87 open jobs per unemployed person—indicating fewer openings than unemployed workers. December was the fifth time in six months that this ratio remained below 1.0.

**Private sector job openings** fell 6.8% (-12.5% y/y) to 5.804 million in December after a 6.6% fall to 6.227 million in November, registering the third successive m/m decline and the lowest level since September 2020. The private sector job openings rate fell to 4.1% in December, the lowest since April 2020, from 4.4% in November. The December m/m decline in private sector openings reflected drops of 27.7% (-36.9% y/y) in financial activities, 20.2% (-25.5% y/y) in professional & business services, 14.4% (-5.1% y/y) in trade, transportation & utilities, and 5.2% (-12.4% y/y) in private educational & health services. To the upside, private sector openings in the following categories rose m/m in December: other services (21.1%; 11.0% y/y), mining & lodging (17.6%; 0.0% y/y), information (13.5%; -4.7% y/y), manufacturing (8.5%; 0.5% y/y), leisure & hospitality (7.5%; -17.2% y/y), and construction (2.8%; 42.4% y/y). Meanwhile, government job openings rose 5.3% (-15.6% y/y) in December, the first m/m rise in three months, after a 10.6% drop in November.

**Total hiring** rebounded 3.4% (-1.5% y/y) to 5.293 million in December, the first m/m increase since September, following a 4.6% decrease to 5.121 million in November. The hiring rate edged up to 3.3% in December from 3.2% in November, though it remained below pre-pandemic levels. **Private sector hiring** rose 3.1% (-0.4% y/y) to 4.978 million in December, the third m/m rise in four months, after a 4.0% decline to 4.826 million in November. The private sector hiring rate rose to 3.7% in December from 3.5% in November, the same as in October and September. The December m/m increase in private sector hiring was led by a 32.1% jump (42.3% y/y) in information, followed by gains of 24.0% (-4.6% y/y) in financial activities, 23.5% (0.0% y/y) in mining & lodging, 6.5% (-4.8% y/y) in private educational & health services, 4.2% (-4.9% y/y) in trade, transportation & utilities, 3.6% (6.1% y/y) in construction, 3.4% (7.9% y/y) in leisure & hospitality, and 1.8% (-4.3% y/y) in manufacturing. To the downside, private sector hiring in professional & business services (-5.2%; +0.5% y/y) and other services (-4.3%; -16.5% y/y) declined m/m in December. Meanwhile, government hiring rebounded 6.4% (-16.3% y/y) in December, the first m/m rise since September, following a 13.5% drop in November.

**Total separations** rose 2.1% (3.3% y/y) to 5.251 million in December after a 1.5% rise to 5.144 million in November, marking the third m/m increase in four months and the highest level since September. The total separations rate edged up to 3.3% after holding at 3.2% in November and October. Private sector separations rose 1.6% (4.2% y/y) to 4.932 million in December, the highest level since June, while government sector separations jumped 10.4% (-9.1% y/y) to 319,000 following two consecutive m/m declines. **Total quits** (voluntary separations initiated by the employee) increased 0.3% (3.5% y/y) to 3.204 million in December, the third m/m rise in four months and the highest level since June, after a 7.4% rebound in November. The quits rate (a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs) held at 2.0% in December and November, slightly below 2.3% in February 2020. Private sector quits eased 0.2% (+4.5% y/y) following an 8.4% November rebound. **Layoffs and discharges** (involuntary separations initiated by the employer) increased 3.6% (5.6% y/y) to 1.762 million in December, up for the third time in four months, after an 8.1% drop in November. The layoffs & discharges rate remained at 1.1% in December and November, marginally below 1.3% in February 2020. Private sector layoffs grew 4.3% (7.8% y/y) following a 7.3% November decrease.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database.

260205C15.jpg

260205D15.jpg

- Job openings down 5.6% (-12.9% y/y) to 6.542 mil., third straight m/m decline.
- Hiring up 3.4% (-1.5% y/y) to 5.293 mil., first m/m increase since September.
- Separations rise to a three-month high; quits reach a six-month high; layoffs rebound.

U.S. JOLTS: Openings Drop to Lowest Level Since Sept. ’20; Hiring Rebounds in December

260205A2.jpg

260205B2.jpg

Initial claims for unemployment insurance jumped 22,000 to 231,000 in the week ended January 31 following an unrevised 209,000 in the prior week. The four-week average rose to 212,250 from 206,250. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for 213,000 claims to have been filed. Winter Storm Fern and the accompanying very cold temperatures could have provided a temporary boost. Historically speaking, claims remain at low levels.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries—also known as “continuing claims”—increased by 25,000 to 1.844 million in the week ending January 24, from a downwardly revised 1.819 million in the prior week (previously 1.827 million). The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2% in the week of January 24, unchanged from the previous eight weeks.

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending January 17, the highest unemployment rates were in Rhode Island (2.83%), New Jersey (2.77%), Massachusetts (2.67%), Washington (2.54%), and Minnesota (2.45%). The lowest rates were in Florida (0.30%), North Carolina (0.42%), Louisiana (0.43%), Alabama (0.46%), and Arkansas (0.47). Rates in other notable states include Illinois (2.15%), California, (2.08%), New York (2.02%), Pennsylvania (1.91%), and Texas (1.09%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.

260205C2.jpg

260205D2.jpg

- New claims jumped 22,000 to 231,000, the highest level since December 6.
- Continuing claims rose to 1.844 million from 1.819 million.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Surged in Latest Week

260205E.jpg

German real orders in December adjusted for inflation rose strongly again, gaining 7.8% month-to-month after rising 5.7% month-to-month in November. Foreign orders were up by 5.6% in December compared to 5.2% in November. Domestic orders surged by 10.7% in December after rising 6.4% in November and 10% in October.

**Real sales**
Real sales were mixed in December with overall sales falling 1.4% month-to-month mostly on weakness in capital goods sales.

**Broad categorical acceleration**
Many flows are accelerating this month. Sequential growth rates show acceleration. Total real orders accelerate from a year ago, to the current year, to six-months, and to three-months. Sales growth rates for consumer goods, consumer nondurables, and intermediate goods all show accelerations in gear. The exceptions are foreign orders that are not as strong over six months compared to their 12-month growth. And on the sales side, consumer durables sales and capital goods sales are weak.

**Quarter-to-quarter**
Quarterly annualized growth is complete for Q4 with this report. Foreign orders are the ‘weak flow’ expanding at a 13.6% annual rate – certainly not a weak growth rate. But domestic real orders are up at an astounding 101.9% annual rate. The net impact on the total real orders growth is to lift it to a pace of 44.1%. 

**Order ranking is very strong**
The table provides two rankings: one based on the level of variables and the other based on its year-on-year growth. The rankings this month for real orders overall, foreign, and domestic orders all reside in their top 80th to 90th percentiles- extremely strong based on level or growth. Sales do not follow suit. This gives us some reason to suspect that there is some lumpiness involved in the manufacturing data as distinct from strength. That will be something to watch. Overall mining and manufacturing sales growth is essentially at its historic median at a rank of 49.8. However, capital goods, intermediate goods and manufacturing sales all have rankings at or above their medians - as high as a 61-percentile standing for capital goods.

**Industrial confidence**
Industrial confidence for Germany, France, Italy and Spain (the EU’s big-four economies) show rankings based on these survey levels that are much lower at the 11th percentile for Germany, the 42nd and 36th percentiles, for France and Italy, respectively. Spain scores better with a 61.8 percentile standing on its industrial confidence measure. 

On balance, there is now an accelerating profile that is broad in sales trends and especially strong order trends. Perhaps Europe, under the pressure to stimulate its miliary capabilities, has a core of demand to help drive output ahead more consistently. This is something to watch in the coming months.

Economy in Brief

Jump to:

Retail Sales Growth Turns Negative In September

U.S. New Home Sales Rise M/M but Tread Water This Year

U.S. FHFA Home Price Index Firmer in September

U.S. Personal Spending Inches Higher as Income Strengthens

Durable Goods Orders Rebound More Strongly Than Expected in October

US Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Fall Unexpectedly

U.S. Personal Spending Inches Higher as Income Strengthens

U.S. Personal Spending Inches Higher as Income Strengthens