Global| Mar 15 2016U.S. Business Inventories Tick Higher as Sales Decline
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total business inventories edged up 0.1% m/m (1.8% y/y) during January following no change in December, revised from 0.1%. Total business sales fell 0.4% m/m (-1.1% y/y), the fourth consecutive month of decline. Retail inventories [...]
Total business inventories edged up 0.1% m/m (1.8% y/y) during January following no change in December, revised from 0.1%. Total business sales fell 0.4% m/m (-1.1% y/y), the fourth consecutive month of decline.
Retail inventories increased 0.3% m/m (5.7% y/y) following an unrevised 0.4% December gain. Motor vehicle & parts inventories were strong again and posted a 0.6% rise (8.1% y/y) after a 0.8% jump. Outside of the vehicle sector, retail inventories gained 0.2% (4.6% y/y), the same as during the prior month. Furniture & home furnishings inventories declined 0.5% (-0.7% y/y) following a 2.4% slump. To the upside were clothing inventories by 0.5% (5.2% y/y) after two straight months of 0.6% increase. Building materials inventories gained 0.3% (7.5% y/y) following a 0.4% decline. General merchandise store inventories gained 0.2% (3.1% y/y), the same as during the prior month. Food & beverage store inventories edged 0.1% higher (1.8% y/y) following two months of 0.1% decline.
Merchant wholesale inventories improved 0.3% (2.0% y/y) after three straight months of decline. Inventories in the manufacturing sector continued a lengthy decline and were down 0.4% (-1.7% y/y).
Overall business sales fell 0.4% (-1.1% y/y) following three straight months of decline. Retail sales were off 0.3% (+2.7% y/y) after a 0.2% gain. Wholesale sales plunged 1.3% (-3.1% y/y), down sharply for the fourth straight month, but factory sector shipments improved 0.3% (-2.3% y/y) following six straight months of decline.
The inventory to sales ration in the business sector edged up to 1.40, the highest level since May 2009. The ratio in the retail sector moved to a recovery high of 1.50 while excluding autos it held m/m at 1.30, also a high for the economic recovery. The I/S ratio in the clothing sector of 2.54 and 2.11 in the motor vehicle sector exceeded the 1.49 ratio amongst general merchandisers. Food & beverage stores maintained a ratio of 0.79. Merchant wholesales were at a cycle high of 1.35 while manufacturers' ratio dipped m/m to 1.36.
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database.
| Manufacturing & Trade (%) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Inventories | 0.1 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 3.9 | 4.3 |
| Retail | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 7.6 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 4.9 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 0.3 | -0.0 | -0.4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 6.9 | 4.2 |
| Manufacturing | -0.4 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -1.7 | -1.9 | 2.4 | 1.7 |
| Business Sales (%) | |||||||
| Total | -0.4 | -0.7 | -0.4 | -1.1 | -2.4 | 3.4 | 3.0 |
| Retail | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 3.6 | 3.9 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.9 | -0.2 | 2.5 | 2.7 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | -1.3 | -0.6 | -1.3 | -3.1 | -3.6 | 4.4 | 3.1 |
| Manufacturing | 0.3 | -1.4 | -0.1 | -2.3 | -4.2 | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| I/S Ratio | |||||||
| Total | 1.40 | 1.39 | 1.38 | 1.36 | 1.37 | 1.31 | 1.29 |
| Retail | 1.50 | 1.49 | 1.48 | 1.45 | 1.47 | 1.43 | 1.41 |
| Retail Excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.27 | 1.28 | 1.24 | 1.23 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 1.35 | 1.33 | 1.32 | 1.28 | 1.30 | 1.20 | 1.18 |
| Manufacturing | 1.36 | 1.37 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.31 | 1.30 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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