Robert Brusca

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080418a.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Germany&#8217;s manufacturing PPI surged by 0.5% in March elevating
the 12-month inflation rate to 4.2% and keeping inflation accelerating
from 12 months to three months, as the three-month rate climbed to 6.4%
(saar). Ex-energy the inflation acceleration is even clearer: from 2.8%
over twelve months, to 3.1% over six months, to 4.7% over three months.
In Q1 2008 the PPI is also too high for comfort. The manufacturing PPI
is up at a 6.2% annual rate compared to a 3.5% annual rate for
manufacturing excluding energy.
This result is, of course, for one of the low-inflation EMU
nations. The non-energy PPI has risen by 0.4% in each of the past three
months in Germany. We know that the ECB has just reset forecasts to
account for a longer period during which inflation will supersede its
ceiling of 2% (HICP inflation, not PPI inflation). The pressure at the
producer level in Germany mirrors a similar situation in the US.
Producer level prices are soaring but consumer level prices have been
better behaved even when we compare apples-to-apples (core goods PPI to
core goods CPI). Are these pressures that are building up at the
producer level going to spring forth in the coming quarters in the CPI
(HICP)? Or, has productivity
kept the pressures off the CPI and will these PPI pressures remain
largely at bay? The ECB is worried about second round effects and is
monitoring wage agreement as well as firms hiking prices to recoup past
energy/food price gains. For the moment the results are unclear but the
expected date for inflation&#8217;s return to below its ceiling is being
pushed out and the ECB is remaining vigilant. The ECB expresses
concerns about inflation as well as about slowing growth but has set
policies only to keep inflation at bay. In the US the policy tact is
the opposite. Since Germany gives us some of the better inflation
trends in EMU, it&#8217;s no wonder that the ECB is so worried.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th colspan="9" scope="col">Germany PPI
</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td colspan="3">%m/m</td>
<td colspan="4">%-SAAR</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>Mar-08</td>
<td>Feb-08</td>
<td>Jan-08</td>
<td>3-mo</td>
<td>6-mo</td>
<td>12-mo</td>
<td>12-moY-Ago</td>
<td>IN Q1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">MFG</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>6.4%</td>
<td>6.5%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Ex Energy</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>4.7%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

Germany’s manufacturing PPI surged by 0.5% in March elevating the 12-month inflation rate to 4.2% and keeping inflation accelerating from 12 months to three months, as the three-month rate climbed to 6.4% (saar). Ex-energy the [...]

German PPI Spurts in March

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080418a.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Germany&#8217;s manufacturing PPI surged by 0.5% in March elevating
the 12-month inflation rate to 4.2% and keeping inflation accelerating
from 12 months to three months, as the three-month rate climbed to 6.4%
(saar). Ex-energy the inflation acceleration is even clearer: from 2.8%
over twelve months, to 3.1% over six months, to 4.7% over three months.
In Q1 2008 the PPI is also too high for comfort. The manufacturing PPI
is up at a 6.2% annual rate compared to a 3.5% annual rate for
manufacturing excluding energy.
This result is, of course, for one of the low-inflation EMU
nations. The non-energy PPI has risen by 0.4% in each of the past three
months in Germany. We know that the ECB has just reset forecasts to
account for a longer period during which inflation will supersede its
ceiling of 2% (HICP inflation, not PPI inflation). The pressure at the
producer level in Germany mirrors a similar situation in the US.
Producer level prices are soaring but consumer level prices have been
better behaved even when we compare apples-to-apples (core goods PPI to
core goods CPI). Are these pressures that are building up at the
producer level going to spring forth in the coming quarters in the CPI
(HICP)? Or, has productivity
kept the pressures off the CPI and will these PPI pressures remain
largely at bay? The ECB is worried about second round effects and is
monitoring wage agreement as well as firms hiking prices to recoup past
energy/food price gains. For the moment the results are unclear but the
expected date for inflation&#8217;s return to below its ceiling is being
pushed out and the ECB is remaining vigilant. The ECB expresses
concerns about inflation as well as about slowing growth but has set
policies only to keep inflation at bay. In the US the policy tact is
the opposite. Since Germany gives us some of the better inflation
trends in EMU, it&#8217;s no wonder that the ECB is so worried.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr> <th colspan="9" scope="col">Germany PPI
</th></tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td colspan="3">%m/m</td>
<td colspan="4">%-SAAR</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>Mar-08</td>
<td>Feb-08</td>
<td>Jan-08</td>
<td>3-mo</td>
<td>6-mo</td>
<td>12-mo</td>
<td>12-moY-Ago</td>
<td>IN Q1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">MFG</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>6.4%</td>
<td>6.5%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Ex Energy</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>4.7%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080417f.jpg" width="353">
The composite index of leading economic indicators, reported by the Conference Board, increased 0.1% in March after an unrevised 0.3% February decline. It was the leaders&#39; first increase in six months.
During the last ten years there has been a 59% correlation between the y/y change in the leading indicators index and the lagged change in real GDP.
The breadth of one month increase amongst the 10 components of the leading index improved to 60%. It was the first month over the break even level of 50% since last September. Over a six month period, however, the breadth of gain amongst the leaders components remained quite low at 30%.
Last month, a more positive yield spread between the 10 Year Treasury Bond and the Fed funds rate, stronger money supply growth and vendor performance made the largest positive contributions to the leading index. That was offset by lower stock prices, lower consumer expectations and higher claims for jobless insurance. <img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080417g.jpg" width="353">
The method of calculating the contribution to the leading index from the spread between 10 year Treasury securities and the Fed funds rate has been revised. A negative contribution will now occur only when the spread inverts rather than when declining as in the past. More details can be found <a href="http://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/economics/bci/lei0705.pdf">here</a>.
The leading index is based on eight previously reported economic data series. Two series, orders for consumer goods and orders for capital goods, are estimated.
The coincident indicators rose 0.1% or the first gain in five months. Over the last ten years there has been an 86% correlation between the y/y change in the coincident indicators and real GDP growth. Half of the coincident series components fell.
The lagging index rose again as the average duration of unemployment rose. The ratio of coincident to lagging indicators (a measure of economic excess) fell yet again and was at its lowest since early 1991. 
Visit the Conference Board&#39;s <a href="http://www.conference-board.org">site</a> for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/BCI/BCI.HTM">Business Cycle Indicators</a></th>
<th scope="col">March</th>
<th scope="col">February</th>
<th scope="col">Dec., 6 Month % (AR)</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Leading</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>-3.3%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Coincident</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Lagging</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


</html>

The composite index of leading economic indicators, reported by the Conference Board, increased 0.1% in March after an unrevised 0.3% February decline. It was the leaders' first increase in six months. During the last ten years there [...]

U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Up Slightly

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080417i.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Japan's February industrial production was revised up sharply
using a new data formula. Production is now in line with Japan&#8217;s strong
exports, solving one of the puzzles about the economy for the Bank of
Japan. Industrial production
rose 1.6% in February from January, revised up significantly in a
turnaround from the initial estimate of a 1.2% fall that was reported
last month. The revision was due mainly to a change in data calculation
methods rather than to revised data themselves. From a year earlier,
February production rose 5.1% after gaining 2.2% in January. Still, for
manufacturing sequential growth rates do not paint a clear picture. The
revision has elevated the three-month growth rates to strong levels.
But, even with the new readings, over six months there is a lull in
growth compared to the 12-month pace. This finding is across the board
in manufacturing; utilities output has a stronger more consistent
trend. It is thus too soon to say that the revival discovered though
data revision is what it seems. Several more months of data should help
to clarify the nature of the trend.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr><th colspan="8" scope="col"> Japan Industrial Production Trends</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td colspan="3">m/m %</td>
<td colspan="3">Saar %</td>
<td>Yr/Yr</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">seasonally adjusted</td>
<td>Feb-08</td>
<td>Jan-08</td>
<td>Dec-07</td>
<td>3-mo</td>
<td>6-mo</td>
<td>12-mo</td>
<td>Yr-Ago</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Mining &amp; Manufacturing</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>6.8%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Industry</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>8.4%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Manufacturing</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>6.8%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Textiles</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>-4.0%</td>
<td>-6.3%</td>
<td>-6.0%</td>
<td>-3.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Transport Eqpt</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>18.9%</td>
<td>5.4%</td>
<td>11.4%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="8">Product Group</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Consumer Goods</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>16.4%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>6.9%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Intermediate Goods</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>-1.9%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Investment Goods</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>6.4%</td>
<td>-2.6%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Mining</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>-6.7%</td>
<td>-1.6%</td>
<td>-22.0%</td>
<td>-5.7%</td>
<td>-4.5%</td>
<td>4.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Electricity &amp; Gas</td>
<td>9.7%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>-1.2%</td>
<td>38.7%</td>
<td>17.4%</td>
<td>17.5%</td>
<td>-1.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

Japan's February industrial production was revised up sharply using a new data formula. Production is now in line with Japan’s strong exports, solving one of the puzzles about the economy for the Bank of Japan. Industrial production [...]

Japan's IP is Revised Sharply Higher: Still Growth Trends are Mixed

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080417h.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The Euro Area is not going to make it easy for us to
understand it. After two months of deficits, the trade surplus is back.
Imports fell across the board in February paving the way for the trade
improvement. Both export and import flows have accelerated in recent
months. But the year/year import picture is showing some softening.
Meanwhile, exports, after looking for all the world like the strong
euro value was getting to them toward the end of 2007, have rebounded
sharply and put in two strong months of growth. Export growth exceeds
import growth again in February (Yr/Yr) for the fist time since early
in 2007.
These trends create a quandary about growth. The main research
houses in Germany have cut German and EMU growth estimates for this
year. But how much of this is financial uncertainty at work, and how
much is due to the strong exchange rate? The institutes expect EMU
exports to slow in 2008 and to slow further in 2009. Meanwhile, import
volume is expected to slow slightly as well in 2008 and in 2009. The
picture is still one of an expanding surplus because even though
exports are projected to slow over the period they are continuing to
outpace imports early in 2008 and will only lose out by small growth
differentials in 2008 for the year as a whole and not enough to
overwhelm the fact that exports already exceed imports. Exports will,
however, slip relative to imports again in 2009, bringing a small
deficit. While the strong euro seems to be having some impact it is not
enough to bring persisting deficits to the e-Zone trade account until
2009. It makes you wonder how much pain the current euro exchange rate
is causing and if it is proportional to the noise that is being made
about it? The euro seems
high. The trade weighted real euro exchange rate is extremely high. And
Europe is quite trade-dependent. So why is the euro&#8217;s strength having
such a small impact on trade? That remains a conundrum. The Euro
reached a record high Vs the dollar and real trade-weighted high in
late 2007 yet even by end 2009 the impact on trade is expected to be
muted.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th colspan="7" scope="col">Euro
Area-Trade Trends for Goods </th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td colspan="2">m/m%</td>
<td colspan="4">% Saar</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>Feb-08</td>
<td>Jan-08</td>
<td>3M</td>
<td>6M</td>
<td>12M</td>
<td>12M Ago</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Balance*</td>
<td>&#8364;&#8364; 2,103</td>
<td>&#8364;&#8364; (1,048)</td>
<td>&#8364;&#8364; (178)</td>
<td>&#8364;&#8364; 876</td>
<td>&#8364;&#8364; 1,888</td>
<td>&#8364;&#8364; (569)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"> Exports</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">All Exp</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>6.8%</td>
<td>23.5%</td>
<td>10.4%</td>
<td>10.0%</td>
<td>11.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Food and Drinks</td>
<td> -1.7%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td> -2.5%</td>
<td> -0.5%</td>
<td>5.4%</td>
<td>10.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Raw materials</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>6.4%</td>
<td>28.3%</td>
<td>12.0%</td>
<td>13.2%</td>
<td>5.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Other</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>7.0%</td>
<td>25.2%</td>
<td>11.1%</td>
<td>10.3%</td>
<td>11.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">MFG</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>7.9%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>10.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"> IMPORTS</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">All IMP</td>
<td> -0.4%</td>
<td>6.3%</td>
<td>21.1%</td>
<td>11.4%</td>
<td>9.0%</td>
<td>8.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Food and Drinks</td>
<td> -2.1%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td> -4.4%</td>
<td>7.1%</td>
<td>9.1%</td>
<td>11.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Raw materials</td>
<td> -1.3%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>5.0%</td>
<td> -4.7%</td>
<td> -1.1%</td>
<td>24.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Other</td>
<td> -0.3%</td>
<td>6.8%</td>
<td>23.8%</td>
<td>12.6%</td>
<td>9.5%</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">MFG</td>
<td> -2.8%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td> -1.5%</td>
<td> -8.6%</td>
<td> -2.5%</td>
<td>12.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="5" class="firstcol">*Millions of Euros; mo or period
average</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

The Euro Area is not going to make it easy for us to understand it. After two months of deficits, the trade surplus is back. Imports fell across the board in February paving the way for the trade improvement. Both export and import [...]

EMU Trade Deficit Shoots Back Into Surplus

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080417e.jpg" width="353">
The 1Q &#39;08 Composite Business Index published by the Manufacturers&#39; Alliance/MAPI fell to 57 from 64 in 4Q &#39;07. The latest reading was the lowest since 4Q &#39;06.
During the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the Composite Index Level and quarterly growth in US factory sector output.
The current orders index fell sharply to the lowest since 2003. The 1Q export orders index also fell moderately to its lowest level since mid-2005. During the last ten years there has been a 59% correlation between the export orders index and quarterly growth in real US exports.
The profit margins index also fell to its lowest level since 3Q &#39;05.Capital spending intentions for the coming year were down to the lowest level since 2006. During the last ten years there has been a 75% correlation between the capital spending index and q/q growth in business investment.
The survey of 60 senior financial executives representing a broad range of manufacturing industries reflects the views on current &amp; future business conditions. The business outlook index is a weighted sum of shipments, backlogs, inventories, and profit margin indexes.
For the latest US Business Outlook from the MAPI click <a href="http://www.mapi.net/am/Template.cfm?Section=Newsroom&amp;template=/CM/ContentDisplay.cfm&amp;ContentID=5511">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveys/@SE/@SE.HTM">Manufacturers&#39; Alliance/MAPI Survey</a></th>
<th scope="col">1Q &#39;08</th>
<th scope="col">4Q &#39;07</th>
<th scope="col">1Q &#39;07</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Composite Business Index</td>
<td>57</td>
<td>64</td>
<td>58</td>
<td>63</td>
<td>66</td>
<td>70</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The 1Q '08 Composite Business Index published by the Manufacturers' Alliance/MAPI fell to 57 from 64 in 4Q '07. The latest reading was the lowest since 4Q '06. During the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the [...]

MAPI Business Outlook Survey Fell Again

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080417c.jpg" width="353">
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank reported that its April Index of General Business Conditions in the manufacturing sector fell to -24.9% and reversed all of the prior month&#39;s modest improvement. The latest level was the lowest since the recession year 2001.
The Philadelphia Fed constructs a diffusion index for total business activity and each of the sub indexes. The business conditions index reflects a separate survey question, not the sub indexes listed below.
During the last ten years there has been a 59% correlation between the level of the Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions Index and the three-month growth in factory sector industrial production. There has been a 42% correlation with q/q growth in real GDP.
Sharp declines in the new orders, employment and in the inventories sub indexes were registered while shipments fell modestly.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080417d.jpg" width="353">
The prices paid index backed off slightly after rising in March to its highest level since January 2005. During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the prices paid index and the three-month growth in the intermediate goods PPI. There has been an 85% correlation with the change in core intermediate goods prices.
The separate index of expected business conditions in six months rose sharply and was at the highest level since November; positive for the first month in the last three. Expectations for new orders rose sharply
The latest Business Outlook Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia can be found <a href="http://www.philadelphiafed.org/files/bos/bos0408.pdf">here</a>.
The Changing Business of Banking: Implications for Financial Stability and Lessons from Recent Market Turmoil is today&#39;s speech by Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald L. Cohn and it is available <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/kohn20080417a.htm"> here</a>.
The Economic Logic of a Fresh Start, which examines personal bankruptcy filings, from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia can be found <a href="http://www.philadelphiafed.org/files/br/2008/q1/chatterjee_economic-logic-of-fresh-start.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Philadelphia Fed (%)</th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">March</th>
<th scope="col">April &#39;07</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">General Activity Index</td>
<td>-24.9</td>
<td>-17.4</td>
<td>-0.8</td>
<td>5.1</td>
<td>8.1</td>
<td>11.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Prices Paid Index</td>
<td>51.6</td>
<td>&nbsp;54.4</td>
<td>&nbsp;27.6</td>
<td>26.4</td>
<td>36.6</td>
<td>40.1</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank reported that its April Index of General Business Conditions in the manufacturing sector fell to -24.9% and reversed all of the prior month's modest improvement. The latest level was the lowest [...]

Philadelphia Fed Index Down Again

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080417a.jpg" width="353">
Initial unemployment insurance claims last week rose 17,000 to 372,000. During the prior week, claims fell 51,000 and that was slightly less of a decline than reported initially. Consensus expectations had been for claims to total 375,000 last week.
A claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with growth in nonfarm payrolls. During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
The latest claims figure covers the week that April nonfarm payrolls were surveyed by the Labor Department and claims fell 3,000 (-0.8%) from the March survey period.
The four week moving average of initial claims held roughly steady at 376,000 (17.0% y/y), still near its highest level since 2005.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080417b.jpg" width="353">
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose another 18,000 and the previous week&#39;s increase was revised up to 18,400. Insured unemployment was at its highest level since mid 2004. The figure provides some indication of workers&#39; ability to find employment.
The continuing claims numbers lag the initial claims figures by one week.
The insured rate of unemployment held steady at 2.2% for the fourth week in the last five.
Yesterday&#39;s Senate testimony by Fed GovernorFrederic S. Mishkin, Small Business Lending, is available <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/mishkin20080416a.htm"> here</a>.
The Federal Reserve&#39;s latest Beige Book covering regional economic conditions can be found <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/beigebook/2008/20080416/fullreport20080416.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a>&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">04/12/08</th>
<th scope="col">04/05/08</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>&nbsp;372</td>
<td>355</td>
<td>11.7%</td>
<td>322</td>
<td>313</td>
<td>331</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>2,984</td>
<td>18.4%</td>
<td>2,552</td>
<td>2,459</td>
<td>2,662</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Initial unemployment insurance claims last week rose 17,000 to 372,000. During the prior week, claims fell 51,000 and that was slightly less of a decline than reported initially. Consensus expectations had been for claims to total [...]

U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Up

Largest October layoffs since 2003, led by technology

Subdued global shipping costs not yet pointing to supply chain problems

PMIs show still-elevated but slowing US inflation

AI boosting US investment in data centers

US productivity growth has been significantly faster than in other major economies

Consumers' short-term US inflation expectations still elevated while longer-term expectations of financial markets are steady

US financial markets have gotten used to elevated policy uncertainty

FOMC now expects more rate cuts going forward than in June

China gaining ASEAN exports while US exports slump

Job openings less than the number unemployed in July for first time since 2021

Reaccelerating goods price inflation along with sticky services inflation clouds the outlook

Falling oil prices aren't pulling down inflation expectations, pointing to a boost from increased tariffs

Equity market exuberance outpacing macroeconomic data

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters expect further sizable monetary easing

US production rebounded in Q2, but demand continued to slow

US leader, Germany trailer for real GDP growth over past 3 years

Negative US inflation surprises leading G10 down

Deflation continues in China

Incoming data surprising on downside in US; positive surprises elsewhere

FOMC expects more inflation and less growth than in March

With escalation of Israel/Iran conflict, geopolitical risk has recently surged while US trade policy uncertainty has ebbed

Renewed supply chain pressures point to a rebound in global inflation ahead

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary policy easing

Apart from the US, productivity is moribund

Financial market concerns ebb even though policy uncertainty continues to soar

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251110A0.jpg

251110B0.jpg

Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 9,379 during the week ended November 1 to 228,899 (3.4% y/y) and mostly reversed the prior week’s 12,643 decline to 219,520. The four-week moving average of initial claims eased to 225,213 from 226,766. The four-week average hit a low of 200,323 in January 2024.

Federal government employees filed 7,482 initial jobless insurance claims last week after 9,435 in the prior week. These figures are increased from 588 at the end of September.

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose to 1.964 million (4.4% y/y) in the week ended October 25 from 1.957 million in the prior week. The four-week moving average rose to 1.949 million from 1.940 million. It was the highest level since the last week of August.

Federal government employees continuing benefits rose to 30,649 in the week ended October 25 from 23,188 in the prior week. These figures are increased from 8,676 at the end of September.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.

- Increase in initial claims reverses most of earlier decline.
- Continuing claims continue to increase.

U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Rise in Latest Week

251110E.jpg

Industrial production for the European Monetary Union (EMU) is not yet available for the union as a whole; however, a number of European countries have reported production, and they give us a good sense of what's happening. In September, among the 13 European countries that reported in the table, all but four of them showed increases in industrial production. Declines were posted in Ireland where production fell by 9.4% in one month, Luxembourg where it fell by 6.1%, Malta where it fell by 1.7%, and in Finland where it fell by 0.4%. In the remaining nine countries, production increased. The median increase for monetary union members in the table was a rise of 0.8% month-to-month. 45.5% of the reporters in the monetary union showed production acceleration.

In August, there were 5 European members with production decreasing. Among European Monetary Union members, the median was a decline of 0.5% with 46.2% of the reporters showing output accelerating on the month. July had been a much worse month with 8 reporting European countries showing declines and with the monetary union median showing a decline of 0.3% and only 38.5% of the reporting EMU members showing output accelerating month-to-month.

There has been gradual moderate improvement in these monthly statistics both in terms of improvement in the median and improvement in the breadth as output has accelerated, with a step back in August.

Looking at the sequential data that compare three-month results to six-month results to 12-month results, we see a median annualized increase of 2.9% for output across monetary union members over three months; that's up from 0.8% over six months and compares to a 2.1% increase for monetary union members over twelve months. The breadth of increase over the period is above 50% on all the horizons and it's fairly steady over three months and six months at about a 54-percentile standing.

September data conclude the results for the third quarter. In this quarter-to-date calculation, 6 of the 13 reporters in the table shows output declining in the third quarter. Monetary Union members generate a median increase of 0.3% in terms of annualized quarter-to-quarter industrial output changes. The pattern and the monthly data seem to be slightly stronger than what we see in the quarter-to-date.

The final column of the table presents the queue standings that calculate the positioning of the year-over-year growth rates across country-reporters among growth rates back to late-2007. Ranked among this cluster of growth rates, only five of the current year-over-year rates stand at levels that are below their median growth rate for the period. Countries with below median growth rates (below a standing of 50%) for industrial production growth are Austria, Germany, Finland, Luxembourg, and Malta. Among these, only one belongs to the four largest economies in the monetary union—Germany, which is also the largest of them. Germany has the standing only its 39th percentile. The unweighted median ranking for the group of monetary union economies is at 57.3%, above the 50% mark and therefore above the historic median.

The industrial production data for the monetary union in September is somewhat encouraging but certainly not crystal clear. There continues to be a lot of weaknesses displayed in the data. While the aggregate ranking is above its historic median, it's not above it by very much and clearly the growth rates are still relatively weak. There still is not a clear trend of acceleration in the group. However, what's lacking in the data is any sign of real deterioration. There clearly is weakness across countries but not a sense of deterioration. The best news in the report may be that there's not any really bad news.

251110.jpg

Europe

Production in a Gradual Recovery in Europe Despite Recent Setbacks

Tian Yong Woon

This week, we review key developments across several Asian economies as the year nears its close. On balance, many of investors’ and policymakers’ worst fears did not materialize. Despite US tariffs, regional exports have shown resilience (chart 1), partly supported by stronger intra-Asia trade, even as exports to the US declined in some cases.

In China, factors including importer front-loading, stronger exports to non-US markets, and government efforts to boost consumption—albeit with potentially one-off effects—have kept the economy on track to meet its 5% growth target this year (chart 2), barring a substantial slowdown in Q4. In Japan, political uncertainty has eased following Prime Minister Takaichi’s rise, though her pro-growth, pro-loose monetary stance has contributed to further yen weakness (chart 3). India, while still likely Asia’s fastest-growing major economy this year, has seen trade setbacks (chart 4) as US–India discussions continue, though recent progress suggests a deal may be near.

However, not all developments in Asia have avoided worst-case outcomes. For example, the Philippines, which has already been hit by a string of storms this year, continues to reel from the effects of Typhoons Fung-wong and Kalmaegi. These storms have highlighted corruption in the Philippines’ flood control systems, rattling investors and pressuring the peso (chart 5), in a manner reminiscent of the rupiah’s decline during Indonesia’s political turmoil earlier this year. In Thailand, political uncertainty continues ahead of general elections eyed at next March, while the expected full return of Chinese tourists has yet to materialize (chart 6).

**Trade in Asia**
For Asia, the year has ultimately not played out as bleakly as investors once feared, particularly on the trade front. Despite US President Trump’s tariffs and a persistent backdrop of uncertainty, export performance in several Asian economies has proven more resilient than expected. This is most clearly reflected in export growth readings for China and key Southeast Asian economies (chart 1), which have remained firm—and at times exceeded expectations—even as China’s shipments to the US fell sharply. Much of this resilience reflects a redirection of exports toward other markets, often within the region. India, however, has seen more limited gains, with exports in US dollar terms struggling to materially surpass last year’s levels.

251110T1.jpg

**China**
Among the main investor concerns earlier this year was China, which once again came under close scrutiny as President Trump sought to address issues ranging from the large US–China trade imbalance to intensifying AI competition and perceived overcapacity. Yet China’s growth—particularly on the export front—has proven more resilient than expected, with increased shipments to other markets more than offsetting reduced trade with the US. Earlier front-loading by importers ahead of anticipated tariff hikes also temporarily supported export figures. Domestically, government initiatives to stimulate consumption led to a brief lift in retail spending, though signs suggest these effects may be fading, indicating their largely one-off nature. Even so, China has maintained year-to-date growth above its 5% annual target (chart 2), keeping that goal within reach provided momentum does not weaken significantly in Q4. Meanwhile, the more conciliatory tone in recent US–China discussions, including the halving of US fentanyl-related tariffs, offers a modest further relief. That said, longer-term structural issues still loom, including the difficult shift toward a more consumption-led economy, demographic pressures, and questions around sustained overcapacity in key industries.

251110T2.jpg

**Japan**
In Japan, the political uncertainty that followed the Liberal Democratic Party’s weak election performances earlier in the year has largely eased with Takaichi’s appointment as the country’s first female Prime Minister. Attention now turns to her supplementary budget—reported to be around $65 billion—which aims to address the rising cost of living while also bolstering defence and diplomatic capabilities. Investors, however, are already contemplating the policy implications. In particular, expectations that Takaichi’s agenda could make it harder for the Bank of Japan to pursue further significant tightening have added renewed pressure on the yen, pushing it to multi-year lows (chart 3). And while a weaker yen could, in theory, support tourism, forthcoming measures to curb overtourism—such as Kyoto’s planned 900% increase in accommodation taxes—may act as offsetting factors.

251110T3.jpg

**India**
Turning to India, the economy remains on track to be the region’s fastest-growing major economy. Growth forecasts were downgraded earlier in the year by the IMF and Blue Chip survey panellists, but these revisions were later reversed. These early-year downgrades reflected India’s heavy exposure to US trade, a concern that materialized when the US raised its reciprocal tariff rate on India from 25% to 50%. This contrasts with the situation of many other Asian economies, who successfully negotiated lower rates below the “Liberation Day” baseline. Although India managed to expand exports to other trading partners, this gain resulted in only a muted net impact on overall exports and, in turn, GDP growth. That said, US–India discussions have made some progress over the year, particularly on previously contentious issues such as India’s purchases of Russian crude. While these developments bring India closer to a potential trade deal, the benefits are likely to materialize beyond this year, meaning current growth readings still largely reflect the impact of the steep US tariffs in place today.

251110T4.jpg

**The Philippines**
Moving to the Philippines, the country is grappling with the impact of Typhoon Fung-wong, which struck the northern regions on Sunday, forcing over a million people to evacuate and causing widespread landslides and damaged roads. Fung-wong follows a string of storms this year, including Typhoon Kalmaegi, which also inflicted substantial damage just a few days ago. The disasters have reignited concerns over longstanding corruption in the country’s flood control systems, spooking investors and prompting capital outflows, which have weighed on the Philippine peso (chart 5). The currency’s weakness has been compounded by the central bank’s ongoing easing, which has cut the policy rate from last year’s peak of 6.5% to 4.75%—nearly 200 basis points—and with markets still pricing in further cuts.

251110T5.jpg

**Thailand**
Lastly, Thailand’s economy continues to struggle to regain the footing it had before the pandemic, weighed down by both domestic and external factors. Politically, the country remains in a transitional phase, with new Prime Minister Anutin under scrutiny to deliver on his pledge to hold general elections soon. Deputy Prime Minister indications suggest March 29, 2026 as a likely date, leaving a period of uncertainty in the meantime, as the durability of policies enacted during this interim phase remains unclear. Externally, tourism—which should have been a key growth driver—has underperformed, as the return of Chinese visitors to pre-pandemic levels did not materialize, partly due to tourism-related scares. In contrast, Vietnam appears to have captured a larger share of Chinese tourists this year (chart 6).

251110T6.jpg

Asia

Economic Letter from Asia: As the Dust Settles

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Consumer credit outstanding increased $13.1 billion (2.3% y/y) in September after rising $3.1 billion in August, revised from $0.4 billion, and $17.7 billion in July, revised from $18.1 billion. A $10.0 billion rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Nonrevolving credit outstanding rose $11.4 billion (2.1% y/y) in September after increasing $9.2 billion in August, revised from $6.3 billion, and increasing $6.7 billion in July, revised from $6.9 billion. Nonrevolving credit held by depository institutions declined 6.8% y/y in September after falling 7.4% y/y in August. Finance company debt holdings fell 1.5% y/y after declining 1.3%, while credit union holdings rose an increased 12.8% y/y in September, the quickest growth since in two years. Nonrevolving debt of the federal government rose 3.6% y/y in September, the same as in August.

In September, revolving credit outstanding, which includes credit cards, rose $1.7 billion (2.6% y/y) after falling $6.1 billion in August, revised from a $6.0 billion decline, and rising $11.0 billion in July, revised from $11.2 billion. Revolving credit outstanding held by depository institutions fell 3.0% y/y. Revolving credit held by finance companies fell a steady 14.7% y/y in September, while credit union debt rose 4.5% y/y in September, up from 3.7% y/y in August.

The consumer credit figures from the Federal Reserve Board are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. The breaks in the series in 2005, 2010 and 2015 are the result of the incorporation of data from the Census and the Survey of Finance Companies, as well as changes in the seasonal adjustment methodology. The consumer credit data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics forecast figures are contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

**AI and the Economy** is the title of today’s speech by Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson and it can be found [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/jefferson20251107a.htm).

251107H5.jpg

251107I5.jpg

- Notable gain in credit usage follows prior month’s slowdown.
- Nonrevolving credit usage strengthens and revolving turns positive.

U.S. Consumer Credit Strengthens in September

251107A2.jpg

251107D2.jpg

The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) eased 0.1% during the four weeks ended November 7, 2025 after improving 0.3% in the prior four-week period. The index increased 0.5% y/y following a 0.8% y/y gain at the end of October.

Prices in the **Textile** group increased 2.5% during the last four weeks and rose 3.3% y/y. The cost of burlap increased 23.8% in the last four weeks while surging 48.1% over the last year. Showing modest improvement, cotton prices rose 0.9% in four weeks but declined 5.6% y/y.

**Metals** group prices increased 1.5% (5.9% y/y) in the last four weeks as the cost of aluminum rose 4.9	% (10.3% y/y). Zinc prices moved up 3.6% (5.4% y/y) and the cost of steel scrap rose 1.4% (-5.9% y/y). Lead prices increased 1.1% (-0.2% y/y) in four weeks and the cost of copper scrap rose 0.6% (13.9% y/y). Working lower, tin prices declined 2.2% (+13.8% y/y) in four weeks.

**Miscellaneous** group prices weakened 2.9% in the last four weeks and were off 1.0% y/y, as framing lumber prices fell 11.3% (-4.3% y/y). The cost of tallow, used for frying & baking, declined 9.0% (+10.5% y/y) in four weeks. Offsetting this weakness, natural rubber prices rose 2.0% in four weeks, but were off 6.6% y/y.

Prices in the **crude oil & benzene** group declined 1.6% (-10.8% y/y) in the last four weeks. The cost of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 2.2% in four weeks to $60.31 per barrel and declined 15.6% y/y. The price was increased from a low of $58.47 in the third week of last month. The price of the petro-chemical benzene fell 3.8% (-23.2% y/y) in four weeks.

**Excluding crude oil**, the industrial commodity price index was unchanged (+1.5% y/y) over the last four weeks after rising 0.5% during the prior four weeks.

The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's **DAILY**, **WEEKLY**, **USECON** and **CMDTY** databases.

251107C2.jpg

251107B2.jpg

- Textile and metals prices strengthen.
- Framing lumber costs plummet.
- Crude oil prices weaken.

Economy in Brief: 2008

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German PPI Spurts in March

German PPI Spurts in March

U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Up Slightly

Japan's IP is Revised Sharply Higher: Still Growth Trends are Mixed

EMU Trade Deficit Shoots Back Into Surplus

MAPI Business Outlook Survey Fell Again

Philadelphia Fed Index Down Again

U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Up