Global| Apr 17 2008U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Up
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial unemployment insurance claims last week rose 17,000 to 372,000. During the prior week, claims fell 51,000 and that was slightly less of a decline than reported initially. Consensus expectations had been for claims to total [...]
Initial unemployment insurance claims last week rose 17,000 to 372,000. During the prior week, claims fell 51,000 and that was slightly less of a decline than reported initially. Consensus expectations had been for claims to total 375,000 last week.
A claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with growth in nonfarm payrolls. During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
The latest claims figure covers the week that April nonfarm payrolls were surveyed by the Labor Department and claims fell 3,000 (-0.8%) from the March survey period.
The four week moving average of initial claims held roughly steady at 376,000 (17.0% y/y), still near its highest level since 2005.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose another 18,000 and the previous week's increase was revised up to 18,400. Insured unemployment was at its highest level since mid 2004. The figure provides some indication of workers' ability to find employment.
The continuing claims numbers lag the initial claims figures by one week.
The insured rate of unemployment held steady at 2.2% for the fourth week in the last five.
Yesterday's Senate testimony by Fed GovernorFrederic S. Mishkin, Small Business Lending, is available here.
The Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book covering regional economic conditions can be found here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 04/12/08 | 04/05/08 | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 372 | 355 | 11.7% | 322 | 313 | 331 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,984 | 18.4% | 2,552 | 2,459 | 2,662 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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