Global| Apr 17 2008MAPI Business Outlook Survey Fell Again
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The 1Q '08 Composite Business Index published by the Manufacturers' Alliance/MAPI fell to 57 from 64 in 4Q '07. The latest reading was the lowest since 4Q '06. During the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the [...]
The 1Q '08 Composite Business Index published by the Manufacturers' Alliance/MAPI fell to 57 from 64 in 4Q '07. The latest reading was the lowest since 4Q '06.
During the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the Composite Index Level and quarterly growth in US factory sector output.
The current orders index fell sharply to the lowest since 2003. The 1Q export orders index also fell moderately to its lowest level since mid-2005. During the last ten years there has been a 59% correlation between the export orders index and quarterly growth in real US exports.
The profit margins index also fell to its lowest level since 3Q '05.Capital spending intentions for the coming year were down to the lowest level since 2006. During the last ten years there has been a 75% correlation between the capital spending index and q/q growth in business investment.
The survey of 60 senior financial executives representing a broad range of manufacturing industries reflects the views on current & future business conditions. The business outlook index is a weighted sum of shipments, backlogs, inventories, and profit margin indexes.
For the latest US Business Outlook from the MAPI click here.
| Manufacturers' Alliance/MAPI Survey | 1Q '08 | 4Q '07 | 1Q '07 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Business Index | 57 | 64 | 58 | 63 | 66 | 70 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
