Economy in Brief: October 2020

• Refinancing applications surge but purchase applications fall. • Mortgage interest rates reach record lows. The Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage Loan Applications Index rebounded 4.6% (38.4% y/y) in the week ended October 2 [...]

• Job openings are fewer in number. • Hiring increases modestly. • Layoffs and quits decline. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that on the last business day of August, the total job openings rate eased to 4.4% from 4.6% during [...]

German orders are up strongly for four months in a row. Orders surged in May as they broke out from their April pit in the wake of lifted restrictions on the economy. Then orders spurted in June as the get-back-to-work phase deepened. [...]

• Gasoline prices continue sideways trend. • Crude oil prices decline. • Natural gas prices ease w/w; firm yesterday. Regular gasoline prices were unchanged at $2.17 per gallon (-17.9% y/y) in the week ended October 5, having hovered [...]

• Both exports and imports increase. • Real trade balance also widened, points to meaningful drag on Q3 GDP. The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened further in August to $67.1 billion from $63.4 billion in July (revised [...]

It's always tough to generalise about emerging market (EM) economies. Even knowing if they are emerging economies can be tricky as they are classified in different ways by different organisations. China's role and relative dominance [...]

The composite PMIs in September (manufacturing and services or nonmanufacturing) show more improvement month-to-month. There are fewer countries with PMI values below 50 indicating contraction, but both the averages and medians [...]

• Service sector activity remains firm. • Component activity is mixed. • Strength in pricing power lessens. The Composite Index of Services Activity from the Institute for Supply Management increased to 57.8 during September and [...]