Global| Oct 06 2020U.S. JOLTS: Job Opportunities Fall but Hiring Improves
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Job openings are fewer in number. • Hiring increases modestly. • Layoffs and quits decline. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that on the last business day of August, the total job openings rate eased to 4.4% from 4.6% during [...]
• Job openings are fewer in number.
• Hiring increases modestly.
• Layoffs and quits decline.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that on the last business day of August, the total job openings rate eased to 4.4% from 4.6% during July, revised from 4.5%. The openings rate is calculated as job openings as a percent of total employment plus jobs that have not yet been filled. The August figure remained below the 4.8% record in January 2019. The hiring rate held steady at 4.2%. July's rate was revised from 4.1%. The overall layoff and discharge rate fell to 1.0% versus 1.3% in July. The quits rate eased to 2.0% from a five-month high of 2.1%. It nevertheless remained below the record 2.4% in July of last year. These figures date back to December 2000.
The job openings level dropped 3.0% to 6.493 million, down 9.4% y/y. The job openings level in the construction sector fell 25.2% y/y but in manufacturing, it rose 3.4% y/y. It fell by 17.1% y/y in leisure & hospitality and by 8.2% y/y in the professional & business service sector. In government, the number of job openings rose 16.1% y/y.
The private-sector job openings rate declined to 4.5% and remained below the record rate of 5.1% reached in January 2019. The construction sector's job openings rate fell sharply to 3.5% and remained well below its 5.4% peak in April 2019. The rate in manufacturing rose m/m to 3.7%, the highest level since June 2019. The rate in leisure & hospitality held steady at 5.8% but was below the record 6.6% in June. The rate in professional & business services held at 5.6%, up from 4.8% three month earlier. The government sector job openings rate rose to a record high of 3.8%. July was revised sharply higher to 3.7%.
In August, the level of hiring improved 0.3% to 5.919 million (1.4% y/y) following a 15.3% July decline. The hiring rate held steady at 4.2%, down from the record 5.4% in May. The private sector hiring rate eased to 4.5% but the government sector hiring rate surged to a near-record 2.6%. The factory sector hiring rate improved to 3.2% but the leisure & hospitality rate fell sharply to 7.5%. The professional & business service sector hiring rate eased to 5.6% after being elevated at 5.8% in July and the education & health services hiring rate declined to 3.1%, after surging to 4.9% in May.
Data on job separations reflect a combination of layoffs and quits. The separations rate of 3.3% compared to the record 9.7% in March. The level of separations declined 18.8% y/y. Private sector separations fell 18.6% y/y and the separations rate fell to 3.6%, just above the record low of 3.5% in May. The separations rate fell to 5.4% in leisure & hospitality, lower than 32.7% in March. Professional & business realized a separations rate of 4.4% after surging to a record 8.0% in March. At 2.7%, the separations rate in education & health services was unchanged, just above May's record low of 2.4%.
The layoff & discharge rate in the private sector declined to a record low of 1.2% in August. It was a record low of 0.3% in government. The fairly steady 2.8% rate in construction compared to a lessened 0.9% in manufacturing. The 0.9% rate in the information sector was below the record 3.7% in April. It compared to 0.6% in finance. The professional & business services layoff & discharge rate was a record low of 1.5% and compared to an all-time high of 5.1% in March.
The higher quits rate of 2.2% in the private sector remained up from 1.6% in April. It compared to an increased 0.6% in government. In manufacturing, the job quits rate surged to a near-record 1.7%, up from 0.9% in April. In finance, it jumped to 1.4% from a 0.8% cycle low in April. The quits rate in professional & business services eased to 2.6% and fell sharply to 3.7% y/y in leisure & hospitality. The level of job quits in the private sector fell 21.0% y/y and 24.3% y/y in government.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) dates to December 2000; the figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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