Economy in Brief: July 2020

After a sharp fall in April and a plunge in March, Canadian factory orders sprang back to life in May. The 9.4% gain is sharp by historic standards, but it comes in the wake of the declines orders have seen in previous months and the [...]

• Manufacturing output gains are broad-based in June. • Auto output is exceptionally strong followed by high-tech production. • Capacity utilization markedly increases. Industrial production increased 5.4% in June (-10.8% y/y) after [...]

• 15-year fixed rate mortgage rate eased to another record low. • Home purchase apps fall back in the week. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its total Mortgage Applications Index increased 5.1% (61.1% y/y) during the [...]

Economic activity in New York rose in July for the first time in five months. The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions increased 17.2 in July from -0.2 in June, -48.5 in May and a record low -78.2 in April. [...]

The three exhibits serve to summarize the thinking, assessments, and history of the ZEW financial experts on the global situation. These exhibits, beginning with the graph, show an extended period of weakening expectations, [...]

• Pricing power recovers a bit. • Food prices continue to strengthen. • Energy prices rebound. The Consumer Price Index rebounded 0.6% (0.6% y/y) during June following a 0.1% May easing. The rise compared to expectations for a 0.5% [...]

• NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased 6.2 points to 100.6 in June. • Eight out of ten components rose in June, led by a revival in sales expectations. • Respondents continue to be optimistic about future business conditions [...]

• Gasoline prices rise moderately. • Crude oil prices approach March high. • Natural gas prices improve. The price for regular gasoline improved to $2.20 per gallon (-21.0% y/y) in the week ended July 13 from $2.18 in the previous [...]