Global| Jul 14 2020U.S. Consumer Price Index & Core Prices Rebound in June
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Pricing power recovers a bit. • Food prices continue to strengthen. • Energy prices rebound. The Consumer Price Index rebounded 0.6% (0.6% y/y) during June following a 0.1% May easing. The rise compared to expectations for a 0.5% [...]
• Pricing power recovers a bit.
• Food prices continue to strengthen.
• Energy prices rebound.
The Consumer Price Index rebounded 0.6% (0.6% y/y) during June following a 0.1% May easing. The rise compared to expectations for a 0.5% increase in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The CPI excluding food & energy improved 0.2% (1.2% y/y) last month after slipping 0.1% in May. It compared to expectations for a 0.1% rise.
A 5.1% rebound (-12.6% y/y) in energy product prices led the consumer price increase in June, following declines in each of the prior five months. Gasoline prices jumped 12.3% (-23.4% y/y) after declining for four straight months. Fuel oil prices rose 10.2% (-29.9% y/y) from a nearly 15-year low. Natural gas prices eased slightly (-0.2% y/y) while the cost of electricity fell 0.3% (+0.1% y/y) following a 0.8% decline.
Food at home prices increased 0.7% (5.6% y/y) led by a 2.3% increase (12.9% y/y) in meat, poultry & fish prices, following two months of even stronger increase. Cereal & cereal product prices improved 0.2% (3.0% y/y) after three months of strong increase. Adding to these gains was a 0.4% increase (NSA, 3.5% y/y) in bakery product prices which came after a 0.8% decline. Fruit & vegetable prices rose 0.4% (2.3% y/y) after improving 0.5%. Offsetting the increases, egg prices eased by 2.7% (+12.1% y/y) following a 4.8% decline. Dairy & dairy product prices fell 0.4% (+5.1% y/y) after strong gains in three of the prior four months. Nonalcoholic beverage prices rose 0.7% (5.3% y/y) after rising 2.9%. Prices for food away from home rose 0.5% (NSA, 3.1% y/y) after 0.4% improvement in May.
Goods prices excluding food & energy recovered 0.2% last month (-1.1% y/y) after three straight months of decline. The rise was led by a 1.7% jump (2.6% y/y) in the cost of appliances which followed stability in May. Apparel prices also jumped 1.7% (-7.3% y/y) on the heels of three straight monthly declines. Recreation goods prices eased 0.1% (-2.1% y/y), down for the fourth month in five, while prices for medical care goods improved 0.2% (1.3% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick. New vehicle prices held steady (-0.2% y/y) but used car & truck prices fell 1.2% (-2.8% y/y). Household furnishings prices improved 0.6% (1.3% y/y) for a third straight month. Prices for education & communication goods were off 0.6% (-3.0% y/y).
Services prices increased 0.3% (1.9% y/y) after falling for three straight months. The cost of public transportation rebounded 1.5% (-18.6% y/y) after sharp declines in the prior three months. Offsetting this gain was a 0.9% weakening (+3.4% y/y) in recreation services prices following a record 1.3% May increase. Medical care service prices improved 0.5% (6.0% y/y), strengthening for the third consecutive month. Education & tuition prices eased 0.1% (+1.8% y/y), after changing little for five straight months. Shelter costs rose 0.1% (2.4% y/y) following a 0.2% rise while the owners' equivalent rent of primary residences edged 0.1% higher and by a greatly reduced 2.8% y/y.
The Consumer Price Index data can be found in Haver's USECON database with additional detail in CPIDATA. The Action Economics survey figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers (% chg) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.6 | -0.1 | -0.8 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 2.1 |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.2 | -0.1 | -0.4 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| Goods less Food & Energy | 0.2 | -0.2 | -0.7 | -1.1 | 0.2 | -0.2 | -0.7 |
| Services less Energy | 0.3 | -0.0 | -0.4 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.7 |
| Food | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Energy | 5.1 | -1.8 | -10.1 | -12.6 | -2.1 | 7.5 | 7.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
