U.S. Consumer Price Inflation Moderates in November

The Consumer Price Index increased 2.7% y/y during November, down from 2.8% in October. The 0.2% m/m increase fell short of the 0.3% gain expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The y/y gain in the headline CPI was the weakest since April. It was down from September’s high of 3.0% and compared to 2.9% during 2024. The CPI excluding food & energy increased 0.1% (2.6% y/y) in November. Its y/y rise compared to 2.8% y/y in October and was the weakest rise since March 2021.

Energy prices rose 1.6% (4.1% y/y in November. Gasoline prices strengthened 3.0% (0.9% y/y). Fuel oil prices increased 3.1% (11.3% y/y). Natural gas prices fell 2.1% (+9.1% y/y), and electricity prices strengthened 1.1% (6.9% y/y).

Food prices rose 0.1% (2.6% y/y) during November. Egg prices declined 6.4% (-13.2% y/y). Meat, poultry & fish prices strengthened 0.8% (6.8% y/y), while dairy product prices fell 0.9% (-1.6% y/y). Cereal & bakery product costs held steady (+1.9% y/y). Fruit & vegetable prices fell 0.4% and were little changed y/y. Nonalcoholic beverage prices increased 0.9% and 4.3% y/y in November.

Goods prices less food and energy rose 0.2% and rose a steady 1.4% y/y during November. Prices of used cars and trucks increased 0.3% (3.6% y/y), and new vehicle costs rose 0.2% (0.6% y/y). Appliance prices fell 0.6% (+0.5% y/y) while home furnishings prices rose 0.4% (2.6% y/y). Recreation product costs fell 0.3% but increased 0.7% y/y in November. Apparel prices increased 0.6% (0.1% y/y) in November. Education & communication product costs declined 0.3% (-3.1% y/y). Medical care goods prices rose 0.1% (1.1% y/y) in November.

Services prices less energy edged 0.1% higher but increased 3.0% y/y in November, down from 7.0% y/y in 2022. Shelter prices (35.5% of the CPI) rose 0.1% (3.0% y/y), as owners’ equivalent rent of primary residences also rose 0.1% (3.4% y/y). Transportation service prices fell 0.3% (1.7% y/y). The cost of medical services edged 0.1% and rose 3.3% y/y, and the cost of recreation services fell 0.3% (+2.4% y/y). Education & communication services prices increased 0.4% m/m and 2.2% y/y.

The Consumer Price figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.

For the release of CPI on December 18, 2025, the BLS was able to retroactively acquire most nonsurvey data for October and will publish October 2025 values where possible. However, the majority of the CPI series rely on survey data which was not collected for October 2025 due to the government shutdown. Accordingly, the BLS will not publish October values for those series. Haver Analytics has created a second set of CPI indexes and relative importance series in USECON. These series will contain any published BLS values for October and interpolated values for unpublished detailed indexes. We will then calculate higher aggregate series such as the All Items index and All Items less food and energy using any published indexes along with our interpolated indexes and relative importance.