Economy in Brief

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Price Index for house purchases rose 0.6% m/m (5.6% y/y) in January following an unrevised 0.3% m/m increase in December. The January increase was the largest monthly gain since February 2018, [...]

I keep hearing that the US economy is booming. After all, in the first quarter of this year, real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.1% vs. Q4:2018 and 3.2% vs. Q1:2018. Given that our labor force has grown at only 0.8% compounded [...]

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index backpedaled to 8.3 during March and reversed some of its February Improvement. The index remained well [...]

The IFO diffusion index for March is unchanged. But the current conditions index rose to 29 from 27.3 while the expectations index slid to -9.8 from -8.5. And that mixed and thin gruel was enough for markets to boost the 10-year bund [...]

The National Association for Business Economics expects 2.0% growth in real GDP during 2020 following 2.4% growth in 2019, revised from the prior forecast of 2.7%. Both growth rates are below the 2.9% advance in 2018. Quarterly growth [...]

Wholesale inventories increased 1.2% month-on-month (7.7% year-over-year) during January following a 1.1% gain (this report was delayed as a result of the government shutdown). The Informa Global Markets Survey expected a 0.2% rise. [...]

The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government budget deficit for February of $234.0 billion compared to a $215.2 billion deficit one year earlier. A $227.0 billion shortfall had been expected in the Action [...]

If there is a silver lining to the severe weakness in EMU and German manufacturing as exhibited by the Markit flash PMI readings for March, it is that the transmission of weakness to services has been blunted. The chart shows that [...]