Global| Jul 11 2019U.S. Government Budget Deficit Deepens YTD
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government ran an $8.5 billion budget deficit during June compared to a $74.9 billion deficit one year earlier. A $6.4 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics [...]
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government ran an $8.5 billion budget deficit during June compared to a $74.9 billion deficit one year earlier. A $6.4 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the first nine months of FY'19, the budget deficit deepened to $747.1 billion compared to a deficit of $607.1 billion during the first nine months of FY'18.
Growth in tax receipts picked up a bit. Net revenues rose 2.7% y/y so far this fiscal year compared to a 1.3% y/y gain during in first nine months of FY'18. Individual income receipts eased 0.3 y/y so far in FY'19, compared to an 8.9% y/y rise in the first nine months of FY'18. Corporate tax receipts increased 1.7% y/y so far this year after a 27.6% nine-month y/y drop last year. Social insurance receipts rose 7.0% y/y following little change y/y nine months into FY'18. Excise taxes rose by 12.9% y/y after last year's 9.9% y/y rise nine months into the fiscal year.
At the same time, spending growth quickened to an even greater extent. Government spending increased 6.6% y/y so far in FY'19 after a 3.9% y/y rise last year over the same nine-month period. National defense spending strengthened 8.4% y/y following a 0.4% y/y rise in the first nine months last year. Medicare outlays rose by 6.4% y/y following a 3.3% nine-month rise last year. Growth in income security payments increased 2.4% y/y so far in FY'19 after a slight decline in the first nine months of FY'18. Social Security payments gained 5.6% y/y after rising 4.4% y/y in the first nine months of FY'18. Offsetting these accelerations, spending on health programs increased 5.9% y/y, roughly half the gain last year. Interest payments rose by 16.4% y/y, slightly less than last year's increase.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
The minutes to the latest FOMC meeting can be found here.
| United States Government Finance | June | FY'18 | FY'17 | FY'16 | FY'15 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance (Billions) | -- | $-8.5 | $-779.0 | $-665.8 | $-585.6 | $-439.1 |
| Fiscal 'YTD | -- | $-747.1 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| As a percent of GDP | -- | -- | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% |
| % of Total | ||||||
| Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2018, Y/Y Change) | 100 | 2.7% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 7.6% |
| Individual Income Taxes | 51 | -0.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 10.5 |
| Corporate Income Taxes | -- | 1.7 | -31.1 | -0.8 | -12.9 | 7.2 |
| Social Insurance Taxes | 35 | 7.0 | 0.8 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 4.1 |
| Excise Taxes | 3 | 12.9 | 13.3 | -11.8 | -3.3 | 5.3 |
| Net Outlays (Fiscal Year 2017 YTD, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 5.3 |
| National Defense | 16 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 0.7 | -2.3 |
| Health | 13 | 5.9 | 3.3 | -1.9 | 6.2 | 17.8 |
| Medicare | 14 | 6.4 | -1.4 | 0.6 | 8.7 | 6.7 |
| Income Security | 12 | 2.4 | -1.6 | -2.1 | 1.0 | -0.9 |
| Social Security | 24 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 4.4 |
| Veterans Benefits & Services | 4 | 7.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 9.3 | 6.8 |
| Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 2 | 57.0 | -34.0 | 31.6 | -10.2 | 34.7 |
| Interest | 8 | 16.4 | 23.6 | 9.1 | 7.8 | -1.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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