Economy in Brief: February 2021

• Production up 0.9%, more than twice expectations. • Led by a 1.0% m/m gain in manufacturing output; motor vehicle output down for fifth month of past six. • Manufacturing output only 1% below pre-pandemic level. Industrial [...]

• After three consecutive monthly declines, retail spending rebounded strongly in January. • Rebound aided by another round of stimulus checks from the federal government. • The January surge in spending was widespread across [...]

The ZEW financial experts have regained their optimism in February. Despite a spreading virus and lockdowns (just ending in Germany) and new variants of the virus (some of which spread faster and more lethal and some of which are [...]

• Business conditions measure increases for first time in five months. • Component improvement is widespread. • Prices strengthen. The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions increased to 12.1 in February from [...]

U.K. IP is fighting off two devastating blows. One is the transition to Brexit that is proving to be less seamless than Boris Johnson led many to believe. The other is the virus that exploded across the U.K. in December. Yet, [...]

Some positive trends Amidst the daily barrage of bad news stories that pervade the international media, a number of positive trends have unfolded in recent weeks. For example: • At the global level there has been a sharp retreat in [...]

• Declines in home prices & interest rates boost buying power. • Monthly payments move lower. The National Association of Realtors reported that its Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index jumped 2.1% (2.8% y/y) to 171.8 [...]

Covid-19 has turned the labor market upside down and inside out by jettisoning some of the basic rules on which labor markets operate. Governments have taken on such a large role in the labor market that it is hard to tell sometimes [...]