Economy in Brief: 2019

The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions rose to 4.8 in August from 4.3 in July. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected the index to have slipped to 2.0. Twenty-seven percent of respondents reported [...]

Initial unemployment insurance claims rose to 220,000 (+3.3% y/y) during the week ended August 10 from 211,000 in the prior week, revised from 209,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 212,000 initial claims. The four- [...]

It starts with weak IP in Europe Industrial output in the EMU area has lost its way, falling by 1.6% in June, at a -5.2% annualized rate over three months and -2.4% over 12 months. It does manage a small (0.4% annualized) gain over [...]

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its total Mortgage Applications Index strengthened 21.7% (81.2% y/y) during the week ending August 9 following a 5.3% increase in the prior week. Applications to refinance a loan [...]

Import prices improved 0.2% (-1.8% y/y) during July following a 1.1% June decline, revised from -0.9%. A 0.1% easing had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These figures are not seasonally adjusted and do not [...]

ZEW experts' macroeconomic expectations are being cut sharply again. This time the cut is from a much lower point (see Chart). The entire survey is a study in weakness as the table below shows. Its labeling is based upon month-to- [...]

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported that its Small Business Optimism Index rose to 104.7 during July and recaptured most of its decline during June. The index improved 1.4% m/m, but was down 3.0% y/y. An [...]

Overall retail pricing power picked up last month. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% during July (1.8% y/y), up from 0.1% upticks in each of the prior two months. The rise matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. [...]