Global| Aug 14 2019U.S. Import and Export Prices Rebound
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Import prices improved 0.2% (-1.8% y/y) during July following a 1.1% June decline, revised from -0.9%. A 0.1% easing had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These figures are not seasonally adjusted and do not [...]
Import prices improved 0.2% (-1.8% y/y) during July following a 1.1% June decline, revised from -0.9%. A 0.1% easing had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These figures are not seasonally adjusted and do not include import duties. Export prices also rose 0.2% (-0.9% y/y) in July after June's 0.6% decline, revised from -0.7%. The Action Economics survey expected m/m price stability.
The rise in import prices last month reflected a 1.9% rebound (-5.9% y/y) in petroleum import costs following a 7.0% decline. Nonpetroleum import prices were stable last month (-1.3% y/y). Prices of imported industrial supplies increased 0.9% (-4.7% y/y). Industrial materials prices excluding petroleum rose 0.1% (-4.3% y/y). Prices of nonauto consumer goods rose 0.2% (-0.6% y/y). Working lower were imported foods, feeds and beverages prices which eased 0.5% (+2.1% y/y). Motor vehicle & parts prices fell 0.3% (-0.8% y/y) and capital goods prices slipped 0.1% (-1.3% y/y).
The overall export price rise in July reflected strength in a few categories. Agricultural commodity prices rose 0.4% (3.7% y/y) while nonagricultural commodity prices gained 0.2% (-1.5% y/y). Prices of exported industrial supplies rose 0.6% (-5.5% y/y) and prices of exported food, feeds beverages also improved 0.6% (4.8% y/y). Elsewhere, pricing behavior was tame. Capital goods prices eased 0.1% (+0.6 y/y) following two months of stability. Nonauto consumer goods prices rose 0.2% (0.7% y/y) while motor vehicle & parts prices eased 0.1% (+0.5% y/y).
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | Jul | Jun | May | Jul Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imports - All Commodities | 0.2 | -1.1 | 0.2 | -1.8 | 3.1 | 2.9 | -3.3 |
| Petroleum & Petroleum Products | 1.9 | -7.0 | 3.5 | -5.9 | 22.0 | 26.6 | -19.7 |
| Nonpetroleum | 0.0 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -1.3 | 1.3 | 1.1 | -1.5 |
| Exports - All Commodities | 0.2 | -0.6 | -0.3 | -0.9 | 3.4 | 2.4 | -3.2 |
| Agricultural | 0.4 | 2.5 | -1.2 | 3.7 | 0.6 | 1.5 | -5.4 |
| Nonagricultural | 0.2 | -1.0 | -0.2 | -1.5 | 3.7 | 2.5 | -3.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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