U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI Rebounds in January; Highest Level Since August ’22
Summary
- ISM Mfg. PMI up to a higher-than-expected 52.6 in Jan.; first expansion since Jan. ’25.
- Production (55.9) expands for the fourth time in five mths.; new orders (57.1) expand for the first time since Aug.; both at their highest since Feb. ’22.
- Employment (48.1) contracts for the 28th straight mth. after expanding in Sept. ’23.
- Prices Index (59.0) shows prices rising for the 16th consecutive mth., the fastest increase in four mths.
- Exports (50.2) expand for the first time since Feb. ’25; imports (50.0) unchanged after nine mths. of contraction.
The ISM U.S. manufacturing PMI rose to a stronger-than-expected 52.6 in January, the first m/m rise since August, from 47.9 in December and 48.0 in November, data from the Institute for Supply Management showed. The January reading, above the 50 expansion-contraction dividing line, indicated that the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded for the first time since January 2025 following 26 consecutive months of contraction. A reading of 48.4 for January had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The January manufacturing PMI, above 50.5 in January 2025 and a low of 47.0 in October 2024, marked the highest level since August 2022, while remaining below a peak of 63.8 in March 2021.
The production index rebounded to 55.9 in January from 50.7 in December, suggesting production expanded for the fourth time in five months and reached the highest level since February 2022. The index was above its recent low of 44.8 in April 2025 but below a peak of 66.5 in March 2021. An increased 25.7% (NSA) of respondents reported higher production in January while a lessened 15.5% reported lower production. The new orders index jumped to 57.1 in January from 47.4 in December, indicating new orders expanded for the first time since August and hit the highest level since February 2022. The index remained well above a low of 41.8 in January 2023. A sizable 31.4% (NSA) of respondents reported higher new orders in January while a lessened 17.6% reported declines. The inventories index increased to 47.6 in January from 45.7 in December, marking the ninth straight month of contraction. The index was below its recent high of 52.7 in March 2025 but above a low of 43.8 in October 2024. Meanwhile, the supplier deliveries index rose to 54.4 in January from 50.8 in December, indicating slower delivery performance for the second successive month after faster deliveries in November. In January, 12.7% (NSA) of respondents reported slower delivery speeds while 4.0% reported faster speeds.
On the labor front, the employment index improved to 48.1 in January from 44.8 in December, signaling that employment contracted for the 28th straight month after a brief expansion in September 2023; however, January’s contraction was the slowest since January 2025. The index was up from its recent low of 44.4 in March 2025 but below its recent high of 49.7 in January 2025 and a high of 56.5 in March 2022. In January, 13.7% (NSA) of respondents reported higher employment while 18.3% reported less hiring.
On the pricing front, the prices paid index rose to 59.0 (NSA) in January after holding at 58.5 in December and November, indicating raw materials prices rose for the 16th straight month and at the fastest pace in four months. The index remained well above a low of 39.4 in December 2022 but significantly below a high of 87.1 in March 2022 and a peak of 92.1 in June 2021. An increased 29.0% (NSA) of respondents reported higher prices in January while 11.1% reported price declines.
In other ISM series not included in the composite index, the new export orders index rose to 50.2 in January from 46.8 in December, indicating new export orders expanded for the first time since February 2025. The index was up from its recent low of 40.1 in May 2025 but down from its recent high of 52.4 in January 2025 and a high of 57.1 in February 2022. The imports index rebounded to 50.0 in January from 44.6 in December, suggesting imports were unchanged after nine consecutive months of contraction. The index was above a low of 39.9 in May 2025 but below its recent high of 52.6 in February 2025 and a high of 55.4 in February 2022. The order backlog index advanced to 51.6 (NSA) in January from 45.8 in December, showing backlog levels expanded for the first time since September 2022 and reached the highest level since August 2022. The index was up from a low of 37.5 in May 2023 but far below a peak of 70.6 in May 2021.
The ISM figures are based on responses from over 400 purchasing and supply executives from 18 industries, which are weighted according to each industry’s contribution to GDP. These data are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates expansion; below 50 indicates contraction. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes of five of the indexes (seasonally adjusted) with equal weights: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, and Inventories. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver’s USECON database; further detail is found in the SURVEYS database. The expectations number is available in Haver’s AS1REPNA database.
Winnie Tapasanun
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
More Economy in Brief
Asia
