U.S. CPI Strengthens As Energy Prices Rise; Core Prices Increase Steadily

Overall retail pricing power picked up last month. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% during July (1.8% y/y), up from 0.1% upticks in each of the prior two months. The rise matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The CPI excluding food & energy increased 0.3% (2.2% y/y), the same as in June. These two increases remained the largest since January 2018. A 0.2% increase had been expected.

Core goods price inflation moderated to 0.2% (0.4% y/y) after a 0.4% strengthening. Education & communications goods prices recovered 1.1% (-4.1% y/y) and tobacco prices jumped 1.0% (5.4% y/y). Furniture bedding prices rose 0.7% (3.9% y/y) but the cost of appliances weakened 0.8% (+0.6% y/y). Apparel prices rose 0.4% (-0.5% y/y) after a 1.1% jump. Used car & truck prices strengthened 0.9% (1.5% y/y) while new vehicle prices eased 0.2% (+0.3% y/y). Medical care goods prices rose 0.2% (-0.4% y/y) after two months of decline. The cost of recreation goods declined 0.4% (-1.4% y/y) as television prices weakened 1.0% (-20.2% y/y).

Services prices improved 0.3% (2.8% y/y) for a second consecutive month. The cost of public transportation strengthened 1.2% (0.7% y/y). Medical services prices rose an accelerated 0.5% (3.3% y/y) for the second time in three months. Shelter costs improved 0.3% (3.5% y/y) as hotel costs increased 0.9% (4.6% y/y). Primary residence rents rose 0.3% (3.8% y/y) and the owners' equivalent rent of primary residences gained 0.2% (3.4% y/y). Education & communication prices rose 0.2% (1.0% y/y). Recreation services costs rose 0.2% (1.7% y/y).

Energy prices rebounded 1.3% (-2.0% y/y) after declining for two months. Gasoline prices jumped 2.5% (-3.3% y/y) and fuel oil prices gained 0.6% (-6.0% y/y). The cost of electricity rose 0.6% (0.5% y/y) while natural gas costs declined 1.8% (-2.9% y/y).

Food & beverage prices held steady (1.8% y/y) for a second consecutive month. The cost of cereals & bakery products rose 0.3% (1.5% y/y). Fruit & vegetable prices also increased 0.3% (0.6% y/y), but meat, poultry and fish prices edged just 0.1% higher (0.9% y/y). Egg prices eased slightly (-14.1% y/y) while dairy & related product prices fell 0.3% (+0.9% y/y). Nonalchoholic beverage prices slipped 0.4% (+1.9% y/y).

The consumer price data can be found in Haver's USECON database with additional detail in CPIDATA. The Action Economics survey figure is in the AS1REPNA database.