Economy in Brief: 2019

A monthly rebound, yes, but NO green shoots The August 0.3% rebound in German IP and the stronger rebound of 0.7% in German manufacturing IP are surprises that were not tipped off by German orders or by the German PMI or by other [...]

The Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.3% during September (+1.4% y/y) following a 0.1% uptick during August. A 0.1% gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Producer prices excluding food & energy [...]

In the week ended October 7, the U.S. pump price for gasoline edged up to $2.65 per gallon (-8.9% y/y) from $2.64 the previous week. This price has been relatively stable for the past three weeks. Haver Analytics adjusts these price [...]

Consumer credit outstanding increased $17.90 billion (5.0% y/y) during August following a $23.06 billion July surge, revised from $23.30 billion. A $15.0 billion gain had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. [...]

Germany's manufacturing orders continue to run weak. Overall orders are still declining. Total orders have fallen month-to-month five times in the past eight months. Currently, order weakness concentrates in the domestic sector where [...]

The National Association for Business Economics expects 1.8% growth in real GDP during 2020 and 2.3% in 2019, revised from 2.1% and 2.6%, respectively, in the prior forecast. Both of these growth rates are below the 2.9% gain in 2018. [...]

The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) quarterly economic survey shows weakness in both manufacturing and services with manufacturing leading the way lower as was expected to with trade as the likely active operational factor. But is [...]

Job growth moderated recently. Nonfarm payrolls increased 136,000 (1.4% y/y) during September following a 168,000 August rise, revised from 130,000. July's increase also was revised higher to 166,000 from 159,000. A 145,000 September [...]