Global| Oct 07 2019U.S. Consumer Credit Usage Weakens
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Consumer credit outstanding increased $17.90 billion (5.0% y/y) during August following a $23.06 billion July surge, revised from $23.30 billion. A $15.0 billion gain had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. [...]
Consumer credit outstanding increased $17.90 billion (5.0% y/y) during August following a $23.06 billion July surge, revised from $23.30 billion. A $15.0 billion gain had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Nonrevolving credit usage increased $19.85 billion (5.5% y/y) during August after a $13.70 billion July rise. It was the largest monthly increase since August 2016. Borrowing by the federal government, which issues over 40% of nonrevolving credit, rose 7.3% y/y. Depository institutions lending (25% of credit) gained an accelerated 6.7% y/y. It was the strongest y/y advance since January 2017 and double the pace at the end of that year. Meanwhile, finance company balances edged 0.8% higher y/y following declines from 2015 to 2018. Credit union loans rose a greatly reduced 6.4% y/y. Each of these sectors provide roughly 15% of nonrevolving credit.
Revolving credit usage posted $1.95 billion decline (+3.8% y/y) after a $9.36 billion July strengthening. Credit provided by banks, which makes up 90% of revolving balances, grew a lessened 3.9% y/y. It was growing at a 7.5% y/y pace during the summer of last year. Borrowing from credit unions (6% of the issuance) increased a reduced 7.5% y/y. Borrowing from finance companies rose 0.4% y/y.
These Federal Reserve Board figures are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. The breaks in the series in 2005, 2010 and 2015 are the result of the incorporation of the Census and Survey of Finance Companies, as well as changes in the seasonal adjustment methodology.
The consumer credit data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are contained in the AS1REPNA database.
| Consumer Credit Outstanding (M/M Chg, SA) | Aug | July | June | Aug y/y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | $17.90 | $23.06 bil. | $13.31 | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.8% |
| Nonrevolving | 19.85 | 13.70 | 14.04 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 6.9 |
| Revolving | -1.95 | 9.36 | -0.74 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 5.6 | 6.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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