Tom Moeller

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021218a.jpg" width="353">
The U.S. foreign trade deficit improved more than expected in October. September&#39;s deficit was revised lower due to lessened imports. Consensus expectations had been for a October deficit of $36.5B. Declines in exports and imports likely were influenced by the dock workers strike.
Exports fell for the third consecutive month due to across the board component declines. Capital goods exports plunged 2.5% (5.4% AR, YTD). Exports of foods, feeds and beverages fell a hefty 4.0%, the third consecutive monthly decline. Auto exports fell for the fourth month in five. Nonauto consumer goods exports rose following two months of decline (1.1% AR, YTD).
Imports fell for the third month in four also due to across the board component declines. Capital goods imports fell a huge 6.0% (-1.7% AR, YTD), the fourth consecutive monthly decline. Imports of nonauto consumer goods also plunged, down 4.9% for the third monthly decline in four. Imports of industrial supplies and materials rose despite a decline in the refiner&#39;s acquisition cost of imported crude oil. The cost of crude oil fell to $26.74 in October from $27.14 in September.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EE/@EE03/@EE03.HTM">Foreign Trade</a></th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Trade Deficit</td>
<td>$35.1B</td>
<td>$37.1B</td>
<td>$30.8B(10/01)</td>
<td>$358.3B</td>
<td>$378.7B</td>
<td>$262.2B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Exports - Goods &amp; Services</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
<td>-6.2%</td>
<td>11.2%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Imports - Goods &amp; Services</td>
<td>-2.4%</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
<td>8.0%</td>
<td>-6.0%</td>
<td>18.3%</td>
<td>10.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Mortgage Applications Back Up 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> December 18, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021218b.jpg" width="353">
The index of mortgage applications, compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association, last week recovered all of the prior week&#39;s sharp decline.
Mortgage applications to refinance surged as interest rates fell for the second consecutive week.
The recent contract rate on a conventional 30 year mortgage was 5.91% versus 6.09% at the end of November.
Mortgage applications for home purchase surged and recovered most of the prior week&#39;s decline.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">

</table>
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYW/@S5/@S5.HTM">MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">12/13/02</th>
<th scope="col">11/08/02</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Market Index</td>
<td>985.5</td>
<td>992.3</td>
<td>625.6</td>
<td>322.7</td>
<td>352.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Purchase</td>
<td>379.9</td>
<td>333.3</td>
<td>304.9</td>
<td>302.7</td>
<td>275.8</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Refinancing</td>
<td>4,507.6</td>
<td>4,825.6</td>
<td>2,491.0</td>
<td>438.8</td>
<td>795.2</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The U.S. foreign trade deficit improved more than expected in October. September's deficit was revised lower due to lessened imports. Consensus expectations had been for a October deficit of $36.5B. Declines in exports and imports [...]

U.S. Trade Deficit Improved

Louise Curley

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021217f.jpg" width="353">
Inflation in the United Kingdom as measured by the Retail Price index rose 2.7% in November from a year ago, the sharpest rise since January 2001. Prices of housing expenditures, which rose 6.4%, and gasoline and oil, which rose 4.1%, accounted for much of the increase. 
In conducting its monetary policy, the Bank of England focuses on the less volatile &#147;all items less mortgage interest&#148; component of the index. The Bank&#146;s current target rate for this measure is 2.5%. The &#147;all items less mortgage interest&#148; index rose 2.8% in November from a year ago and was the sharpest rise since November 1997. It was also the first time since January 2002 that the rise exceeded the target rate. In its latest quarterly report on inflation, the Bank predicted that inflation would remain above its target for most of next year, suggesting that any changes in the current base rate of 4% are more likely to be on the upside.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Retail Price Index (Annual % Changes)</th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">All items</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">All items ex mortgage interest</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Inflation in the United Kingdom as measured by the Retail Price index rose 2.7% in November from a year ago, the sharpest rise since January 2001. Prices of housing expenditures, which rose 6.4%, and gasoline and oil, which rose 4.1%, [...]

Inflation in the U.K. and Implications for Monetary Policy

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021217b.jpg" width="353">
The Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) rose just 0.1% last month. The gain was as expected. Excluding food and energy, prices also rose as expected and the rise was equal to the YTD average.
Tobacco prices (-0.0%) fell for the second consecutive month. The core CPI less tobacco rose 0.2% (2.0% y/y).
Price discounting was widespread last month. Household furnishings and operation prices fell 0.1%, the sixth monthly decline this year. Apparel prices also fell (-0.4%) after being unchanged the month prior. New and used vehicle prices were down for the second consecutive month.
Services prices were mixed. Shelter prices rose 0.3% following the 0.2% gain in the prior month. Public transportation prices rose 0.9% following two months of decline. Medical care services prices rose 0.6%, just below the elevated October reading. Education prices were flat for the second month. Recreation prices were flat for the second month in three.
Energy prices fell last month led by a 0.2% decline in gasoline prices, the first since May. Fuel and utility prices were unchanged owing to a decline in piped gas &amp; electricity prices
For analysis of health care costs and coverage by the St. Louis Federal Reserve click <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/net/2002/cover11.pdf">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E801/@E80101/@E80101.HTM">Consumer Price Index</a></th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total&nbsp;</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Total less Food &amp; Energy</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Goods less Food &amp; Energy</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-1.6%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Services less Energy</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Energy</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>8.1%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>16.9%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Food &amp; Beverages</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E801/@E80113/@E80113.HTM">Chained CPI: Total (NSA)</a></td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>NA</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Total less Food &amp; Energy</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>&nbsp;1.4%</td>
<td>NA</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Housing Starts Rose More Than Expected 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> December 17, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021217d.jpg" width="353">
Housing starts rose slightly more than expected last month. The 2.4% m/m rise partially recouped an 8.4% October decline that was revised slightly shallower. Total starts were up 7.2% versus last December.
Single family starts rose a modest 0.9% m/m following a 5.1% October decline. Year to date, single family starts were up 7.4% versus last December. 
Multi-family starts rose 10.0% following two months of sharp decline. Year to date, multi family starts were up 6.2% versus last December.
Building permits reversed all of the prior month&#39;s gain and fell 2.7% m/m. The decline was all due to lower multi family permits. Single family permits rose a slight 0.1% following three months of strong gain. The level of single family permits was near the record high of this past February.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E901/@E90101/@E90101.HTM">Housing Starts (000s, AR)</a></th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>1,697</td>
<td>1,657</td>
<td>5.8%</td>
<td>1,603</td>
<td>1,573</td>
<td>1,647</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Single Family</td>
<td>1,390</td>
<td>1,378</td>
<td>12.0%</td>
<td>1,273</td>
<td>1,232</td>
<td>1,306</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Multi Family</td>
<td>307</td>
<td>279</td>
<td>-15.4%</td>
<td>330</td>
<td>341</td>
<td>341</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Industrial Production Up Slightly 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> December 17, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021217c.jpg" width="353">
Industrial production rose just slightly last month versus Consensus expectations for a 0.2% gain. It was the first monthly rise in output since July. October&#39;s decline was lessened and prior month&#39;s figures were revised up. Production was up 2.5% (AR) year to date.
Output in the manufacturing sector rose 0.1% following two months of decline. Factory production was up 2.3% (AR) year to date.
Output of motor vehicles and parts (5.2% AR, YTD) rose 3.9% for the first gain in four months. Output of appliance, furniture &amp; carpeting rose 0.8%, but it was only the second monthly rise since May. Apparel output rose 0.4% but was down 4.2% (AR) year to date. 
Output of business equipment fell 0.5% (-3.0% AR, YTD), the fourth decline in five months. Output of information processing equipment rose for the second consecutive month (-1.1% AR, YTD). 
Capacity utilization rose slightly and is off the lows of late last year, but remains down considerably from prior years. Capacity again rose 0.1%(1.1% AR, YTD) as it has since early last year.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">

</table>
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EA/@EA.HTM">Production &amp; Capacity</a></th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Industrial Production</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>-3.5%</td>
<td>4.7%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Capacity Utilization</td>
<td>75.6%</td>
<td>75.5%</td>
<td>75.1%(11/01)</td>
<td>77.3%</td>
<td>82.7%</td>
<td>82.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Chain Store Sales Recovered Sharply 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> December 17, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021217a.jpg" width="353">
Chain store sales surged 1.9% last week according to the BTM-UBSW survey. The gain recovered most, but not all, of the prior week&#39;s 2.3% plunge.
Since early October, weekly sales have been volatile but essentially have moved sideways.
December sales so far were 1.0% below the November average.
The BTM Leading Indicator of chain store sales collapsed in early December and was 1.6% (-1.2% y/y) below November.
During the last ten years there has been a 48% correlation between the year-to-year percent change in monthly chain store sales and the change in GAF retail sales. That correlation rose to 63% during the last five years.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">12/14/02</th>
<th scope="col">12/07/02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>400.1</td>
<td>392.8</td>
<td>4.5%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Crude Oil Prices Surge to $30.00 per Barrel 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> December 17, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021217e.jpg" width="353">
Prices have surged $5.00/bbl for West Texas Intermediate crude oil since the mid-November lows. A labor strike in Venezuela has crippled the country&#39;s oil output.
Wholesale gasoline prices have similarly surged, rising nearly $0.15 per gallon, or 19%, since late November. Fuel oil prices also have risen sharply.
Wholesale natural gas prices have more than doubled this year.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/daily/@D3/@D306/@D30604/@D30604.HTM">Daily Crude Oil Prices</a></th>
<th scope="col">12/16/02</th>
<th scope="col">11/18/02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil</td>
<td>$30.13</td>
<td>$26.73</td>
<td>56.7%</td>
<td>$25.97</td>
<td>$30.34</td>
<td>$19.34</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) rose just 0.1% last month. The gain was as expected. Excluding food and energy, prices also rose as expected and the rise was equal to the YTD average. Tobacco prices (-0.0%) fell for the second [...]

CPI Weak, As Expected

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021216a.jpg" width="353">
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey reported that the index of general business conditions improved in December and was positive for a second month. Modest deterioration had been expected by some forecasts.
Diffusion indexes for new orders, shipments and the length of the average employee workweek improved sharply. The index of prices paid fell for the second month.
The survey includes measures of business expectations, six months ahead. The diffusion index for general business conditions fell to the lowest level since January. Expectations for orders and shipments fell sharply.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey is a monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
Like the Philadelphia Fed Index of General Business Conditions, the Empire State Business Conditions Index reflects answers to an independent survey question, not the components.
For the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey report, click <a href="http://www.newyorkfed.org/rmaghome/regional/mfg_survey/12_2002.pdf">here</a>

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S5/@S511/@S511.HTM">Empire State Manufacturing Survey</a></th>
<th scope="col">Dec</th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">General business conditions (diffusion index)</td>
<td>10.60</td>
<td>9.70</td>
<td>-1.83</td>
<td>6.96</td>
<td>-14.97</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
NAHB Housing Index Firm Again 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> December 16, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021216b.jpg" width="353">
The National Association of Home Builders index of new home sales rose for December although the strong reading for November was revised slightly lower. The latest rise was to the highest level since November 2000.
Surveys of market conditions for current sales rose slightly but expected conditions in six months fell slightly. 
Traffic of prospective buyers fell moderately to the midpoint of the range prevailing this year.
For a description of the housing market index from the National Association of Home Builders, visit the <a href="http://www.nahb.org/generic.aspx?sectionID=134&amp;genericContentID=532">NAHB website</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S4/@S4.HTM">Nat&#39;l Association of Home Builders</a></th>
<th scope="col">Dec</th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Composite Housing Market Index</td>
<td>65</td>
<td>64</td>
<td>57</td>
<td>61</td>
<td>56</td>
<td>62</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey reported that the index of general business conditions improved in December and was positive for a second month. Modest deterioration had been expected by some forecasts. Diffusion indexes for new [...]

Empire State Factory Survey Improved Further in December

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021213b.jpg" width="353">
Finished producer prices were weaker than expected last month and fell 0.4%. Consensus expectations were for no change. It was the first decline in prices since July.
Excluding food and energy prices also were weaker than expectations for no change. The 0.3% decline similarly was the first drop since July. Core producer prices were down 0.1% (AR, YTD).
Finished energy prices fell for the first month since June (11.6% AR, YTD). Gasoline prices fell 11.6% (54.1% AR), reversing all of the prior month&#39;s jump, and fuel oil prices slumped 10.7% (45.1% AR, YTD). Residential gas prices also were strong for the second consecutive month (8.1% AR, YTD). These energy product price series are NSA.
Core finished consumer goods prices fell 0.3% (0.2% AR, YTD). Consumer durables prices fell 0.7% and reversed all of the October jump as prices for passenger cars and household appliances fell. Other consumer durables prices were tame. Core nondurable goods prices rose 0.1% (1.3% AR, YTD. Capital goods prices fell 0.2% (-0.5% AR, YTD) as computer prices continued to decline.
Food prices rose 0.3%, but it was only the second monthly rise since mid-year.
Intermediate goods prices fell for the first month since February as energy prices fell. Core intermediate prices rose just 0.1% for the third consecutive month (1.8% AR, YTD). 
Crude goods prices were again strong (26.0% AR, YTD) reflecting higher energy prices. Other commodities prices reflected in the core crude price measure were strong reflecting higher scrap copper and aluminum prices. Steel scrap prices fell sharply for the second consecutive month.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E802/@E80201/@E80201.HTM">Producer Price Index</a></th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Finished Goods</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Intermediate Goods</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Crude Goods</td>
<td>5.1%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>14.7%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>22.8%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>11.6%</td>
<td>-9.9%</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
<td>-4.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Business Inventory Accumulation Continued 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> December 13, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021213c.jpg" width="353">
Total business inventories rose as expected in October. September&#39;s gain in inventories was revised up slightly due to raised figures for retail inventories.
Retail inventories (7.4% YTD, AR) were strong for the second consecutive month led by a 3.0% jump in motor vehicle inventories, the second strong gain in a row.
Nonauto retail inventories (1.8% YTD, AR) fell for the first monthly decline since March. Inventories of furniture &amp; home furnishings were unchanged following earlier strength (10.1% YTD, AR). Inventories at apparel stores slumped 1.2% (1.7% YTD, AR). At general merchandise stores inventories rose a modest 0.2% (-0.9% YTD, AR) for the second consecutive month.
Overall business sales rose 0.4% (4.2% YTD, AR).
The inventory-to-sales ratio fell slightly to 1.36 from an upwardly revised September level. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED06/@ED0601/@ED0601.HTM">Business Inventories</a></th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
<td>-6.3%</td>
<td>5.6%</td>
<td>5.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Retail</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>5.3%</td>
<td>-5.0%</td>
<td>6.1%</td>
<td>7.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Retail excl. Autos</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>-2.0%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Wholesale</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>-3.0%</td>
<td>-5.5%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Manufacturing</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-4.4%</td>
<td>-8.0%</td>
<td>4.5%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Consumer Sentiment Up in Early December 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> December 13, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021213a.jpg" width="353">
The preliminary December reading of Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan rose more than Consensus expectations for a rise to 85.0. Sentiment has rebounded 7.9% during the last two months.
Indexes of current conditions and expectations both rose.
Over the last 10 years there has been a 40% correlation between the annual change in consumer sentiment and the change in stock prices.That correlation rose to 62% during the last five years
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF14/@EF1402/@EF1402.HTM">University of Michigan</a></th>
<th scope="col">Prelim. Dec</th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Consumer Sentiment</td>
<td>87.0</td>
<td>84.2</td>
<td>-2.0%</td>
<td>89.2</td>
<td>107.6</td>
<td>105.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Finished producer prices were weaker than expected last month and fell 0.4%. Consensus expectations were for no change. It was the first decline in prices since July. Excluding food and energy prices also were weaker than expectations [...]

Producer Prices Fall

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021212a.jpg" width="353">
Retail sales rose last month in line with Consensus expectations for a 0.4% gain. October sales were revised up due to slightly stronger gains in auto and nonauto sales. Total retail sales were up at a 2.7% annual rate YTD through November.
Sales excluding motor vehicles and parts dealers rose quite a bit more than expectations for a 0.2% gain. Year to date nonauto retail sales were up at a 4.9% annual rate through November.
Furniture and home furnishing store sales rose 1.6% (3.4% YTD, AR) following strong results in the prior four months which were revised higher. The November gain reflected a huge 2.3% rise in furniture sales and a 0.9% rise in electronics and appliances sales.
Sales at general merchandise stores rose 0.3% adding to a 1.2% gain in October. Year to date sales were up at a 4.5% rate through November.
Apparel store sales fell a sharp 1.3% (1.1% AR, YTD) following a huge 5.5% gain in October.
Motor vehicle dealers&#39; sales fell a slight 0.1%, the third monthly decline in a row. The decline may have reflected price discounting. Unit sales of light vehicles rose 3.8% last month to 16.04 mil.
Sales at gasoline service stations rose 0.4%.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/usecon/@ED/@ED04/@ED0401/@ED0401.HTM">Retail Sales &amp; Food Services</a></td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
<td>8.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Excluding Autos</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>5.0%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
<td>7.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">

</table>
Import Prices Down 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> December 12, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021212c.jpg" width="353">
Prices for imported commodities fell much more than Consensus expectations for a 0.1% decline. October figures were little revised.
Petroleum import prices fell sharply and by the most since back to back double digit declines last Fall. Still, petroleum prices are up at a 51.6% rate since December. So far in December the price of Arab Light crude oil has run slightly higher than the $22.20/bbl averaged in November.
Nonpetroleum import prices rose slightly following the slight October drop (0.3% YTD, AR).
Prices of imported capital goods were unchanged following two down months. Nonauto consumer goods prices fell for the second month in three and imported motor vehicle prices also were down.
Export prices rose slightly (1.3% YTD, AR). Food prices rose strongly, reversing the prior month&#39;s steep drop. Other export prices either fell or were tame.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E807/@E807.HTM">Import/Export Prices (NSA)</a></th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Import - All Commodities</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>-3.5%</td>
<td>6.5%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Petroleum</td>
<td>-10.0%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>37.5%</td>
<td>-17.2%</td>
<td>66.5%</td>
<td>34.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Nonpetroleum</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>-1.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Export - All Commodities</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Surged 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> December 12, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021212b.jpg" width="353">
Initial claims for unemployment insurance surged more than expected last week. Aberrant seasonal adjustment factors were cited by the Labor Department as the reason for recent volatility.
The four-week moving average of initial claims rose to 387,250, down 10.9% y/y.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell a sharp 4.8% w/w following a like decline the prior week.
The insured rate of unemployment fell to 2.6%, the lowest level since September 2001.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">12/07/02</th>
<th scope="col">11/30/02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>441.0</td>
<td>358.0</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
<td>405.8</td>
<td>299.8</td>
<td>297.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>3,284</td>
<td>-10.2%</td>
<td>3,021</td>
<td>2,114</td>
<td>2,186</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
3Q Current Account Deficit Narrowed 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> December 12, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021212d.jpg" width="353">
The US current account deficit came in slightly below expectations last quarter, but remained near a record level. The deficit in 2Q was revised shallower. 
The deficit in goods, services and income trade eased slightly but remained near the record. The deficit in goods and services trade deteriorated to a new record. The deficit in the income balance eased slightly.
Foreign ownership of assets in the US rose by $148.5B versus a gain of $204.3B in 2Q and a peak rate of $302.5B early last year. Direct investment into the US improved slightly last quarter but remained at a level not seen since the mid-1990s.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EE/@EE01/@EE01.HTM">US Int&#39;l Balance of Payments</a></th>
<th scope="col">3Q &#39;02</th>
<th scope="col">2Q &#39;02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Current Account Deficit</td>
<td>$127.0B</td>
<td>$127.6B</td>
<td>$91.3B</td>
<td>$393.4B</td>
<td>$410.3B</td>
<td>$292.9B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; % of GDP</td>
<td>4.8%</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>4.5%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Deficit on Gds, Serv &amp; Income</td>
<td>$113.8B</td>
<td>$114.6B</td>
<td>$79.0B</td>
<td>$343.9B</td>
<td>$356.9B</td>
<td>$244.1B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Exports</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>4.8%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>-9.6%</td>
<td>13.6%</td>
<td>4.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Imports</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>8.3%</td>
<td>9.8%</td>
<td>-8.4%</td>
<td>18.9%</td>
<td>10.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Unilateral Transfers Deficit</td>
<td>$13.2B</td>
<td>$13.0B</td>
<td>$12.4B</td>
<td>$49.5B</td>
<td>$53.4B</td>
<td>$48.8B</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Mortgage Refinancing Drops 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> December 12, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021212e.jpg" width="353">
The index of mortgage applications, compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association, plunged last week. The decline reversed the run-up in early November and dropped total applications 35% below the early October high.
Mortgage applications to refinance collapsed, leaving them 45% below the early October high yet still up versus last year.
Mortgage applications for home purchase have remained relatively firm.. The recent contract rate on a conventional 30 year mortgage was 5.95%, up modestly from the low.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">

</table>
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S5/@S503/@S503.HTM">MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">12/06/02</th>
<th scope="col">11/01/02</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Market Index</td>
<td>862.7</td>
<td>1,030.5</td>
<td>625.6</td>
<td>322.7</td>
<td>352.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Purchase</td>
<td>358.8</td>
<td>369.5</td>
<td>304.9</td>
<td>302.7</td>
<td>275.8</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Refinancing</td>
<td>3,793.8</td>
<td>4,875.1</td>
<td>2,491.0</td>
<td>438.8</td>
<td>795.2</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Retail sales rose last month in line with Consensus expectations for a 0.4% gain. October sales were revised up due to slightly stronger gains in auto and nonauto sales. Total retail sales were up at a 2.7% annual rate YTD through [...]

Retail Sales Rose Moderately

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021211a.jpg" width="353">
The Leading Index of the US economy published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose 1.5% last month, more than recovering the prior two month&#39;s declines.
At the end of last month, the level of the weekly leading index was up to its highest level since July. The indicator&#39;s six-month growth rate rose to-1.8% versus -4.5% hit in October.
Construction of the ECRI Leading Index differs from the Index of Leading Economic Indicators published by the Conference Board. Nevertheless there has been an 80% correlation between the annual percent change in the two over the last 20 years.
The components of the index are money supply plus stock &amp; bond mutual funds, the JOC-ECRI industrial materials price index, mortgage applications, bond quality spreads, stock prices, bond yields, and initial jobless insurance claims.
The median lead of the ECRI index at business cycle peaks has been 10.5 months and at cycle troughs 3.0 months. The sideways movement of the leading index in 2002 may or may not signal something about the economy&#39;s growth rate.
For more on ECRI and the Weekly Leading Index click <a href="http://www.businesscycle.com/">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">

</table>
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/weekly/@W8/@W801/@W801.HTM">ECRI</a></th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Leading Index</td>
<td>118.8</td>
<td>117.0</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>-5.1%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The Leading Index of the US economy published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose 1.5% last month, more than recovering the prior two month's declines. At the end of last month, the level of the weekly leading index [...]

ECRI Leading Indicators Recover

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021210b.jpg" width="353">
The Federal Reserve left the Federal Funds Target Rate unchanged at 1.25%. The action was as expected by most economists at the 22 primary dealers, bond firms that trade directly with the central bank. 
The brief press release which accompanied the Fed&#146;s action contained the following statement. &quot;The Committee continues to believe that this accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled with still robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing important ongoing support to economic activity.&quot;
The complete text of the Fed&#39;s latest press release can be viewed <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/BoardDocs/Press/monetary/2002/20021210/default.htm.">here</a>.
A review of US monetary policy from 1987 to 2001 by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond can be viewed at the <a href="http://www.rich.frb.org/pubs/eq/search.cfm/article=170">Richmond Fed website</a>.
Further discussion by the Richmond Fed of expectations and the term structure of interest rates can be found <a href="http://www.rich.frb.org/pubs/eq/search.cfm/article=173">here</a>.

Chain Store Sales Weak Post Thanksgiving 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> December 10, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021210a.jpg" width="353">
Chain store sales fell 2.3% last week according to the BTM-UBSW survey. The post Thanksgiving plunge may have been exacerbated by the late timing of the holiday. Icing and snow in the Northeast also have been cited by some retailers as factors behind weak sales.
The one week decline in sales was the largest in two years. In 2000, sales similarly collapsed post Thanksgiving and only recovered when aggressive price discounts at Christmas salvaged the season.
The drop followed a 0.3% rise the prior week and lowered the sales index to its lowest in a year. December sales began the month 1.9% below the November average.
The BTM Leading Indicator of chain store sales rose late last month and the November monthly average was 0.7% (0.8% y/y) above October.
During the last ten years there has been a 48% correlation between the year-to-year percent change in monthly chain store sales and the change in GAF retail sales. That correlation rose to 63% during the last five years.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">12/07/02</th>
<th scope="col">11/30/02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>392.8</td>
<td>402.0</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The Federal Reserve left the Federal Funds Target Rate unchanged at 1.25%. The action was as expected by most economists at the 22 primary dealers, bond firms that trade directly with the central bank. The brief press release which [...]

FOMC Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged

Ratio of job openings to the number unemployed in the US now below pre-pandemic level

U.S. layoffs not showing as much cooling in labor markets as unemployment rate

While goods prices have moderated, service price inflation remains elevated and sticky

Since Jan 2023, BCEI US outlook has improved, worsened for Japan and the euro area

Persistent negative US economic surprises leading to big rate-cut expectations

Germany is Euro area weakling

Flash PMIs show good start to Q3 in US; loss of momentum in the euro area

Chinese economy on downtrend could threaten global economy

Working age population labor force participation near all-time high as retirements increase

Blue Chip forecasters look for widespread policy rate cuts just ahead

Flash June PMIs point to a widespread slowdown apart from the US

Announcement of snap French election is causing concern across Europe

The UK economy’s post-pandemic under-performance relative to its pre-pandemic trend

US Beveridge Curve back to near pre-pandemic levels

Negative economic surprises in the US but positive in Europe, especially the UK

Latest PMIs show US losing momentum while RoW is gaining momentum

Sticky services prices behind sticky overall PCE inflation

Flash April PMIs point to slower growth in the US but a pickup in Europe and Japan

Outlook strengthens for US while it weakens for other major economies

Crude petroleum prices are having a big impact on inflation expectations

Inflation surprising to upside in the US; by contrast to the downside in the euro area

 Gross Domestic Income is catching up with GDP

FOMC expects GDP growth above trend over the next three years

US core CPI inflation has begun to reaccelerate

Fiscal-policy aided factory building in the U.S. provided an unusually large boost to growth last year

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

New York

London

Singapore

Tokyo

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

Tian Yong Woon

In this week's newsletter, we explore Asia’s manufacturing activity, with a particular emphasis on the semiconductor sector. While that sector continues to expand overall, some economies are experiencing a slowdown in growth (Chart 1). We also assess the growing role of electronics in Asian exports, highlighting Taiwan's significant increase in electronics export share and South Korea's ongoing recovery in this area (Chart 2). Focusing further on the electronics sector, we note an interim stall in global semiconductor sales growth, although it remains robust with double-digit increases (Chart 3). We then delve into specific Asian economies, starting with Taiwan. Here, we identify dual drivers of industrial production: consumer electronics and electronic parts, including semiconductors (Chart 4). Next, we examine Malaysia, which has developed a strong semiconductor ecosystem with expertise in back-end processes and is more recently making headway in front-end areas like chip design (Chart 5). Finally, we consider India’s emerging semiconductor sector, which, despite being in its early stages, is poised for growth thanks to recent initiatives aimed at bolstering domestic prowess (Chart 6).

**Asia’s manufacturing complex**
The manufacturing sector across much of Asia continues to expand, although recent months have seen a deceleration in the rate of growth for some economies. As illustrated in Chart 1, Taiwan's manufacturing PMI peaked at 53.2 in June 2024 but subsequently moderated to 51.5 in August, reflecting a significant slowdown in growth for output and new orders. A similar trend is evident in Southeast Asia (ASEAN), where the PMI has recently edged closer to the neutral level of 50. Within ASEAN, Indonesia has been a notable drag, with its PMI slipping into contractionary territory in July, while Vietnam's PMI has remained above the regional average. In contrast, South Korea's manufacturing sector has shown robust momentum, with output growth reaching a 40-month high in August, thereby supporting the overall manufacturing PMI for the country.

240909T1.jpg

A closer look at Asia’s manufacturing sector reveals significant trends in electronics exports, as illustrated in Chart 2. Many Asian economies remain heavily dependent on electronics for export revenue, with some increasing their reliance over recent years. This highlights the crucial role of electronics in the overall economic growth of these countries. For example, Taiwan's share of electronics in its export revenue surged to over 35% in recent years, up from just above 28% in late 2021. In contrast, South Korea’s electronics export share peaked slightly above 36% in late 2018 but fell to below 28% in 2023 before partially recovering. Malaysia, on the other hand, saw its electronics export share exceed 41% in late 2023, though it has since moderated. Beyond these export shares, the specifics of each economy's electronics export mix vary significantly—a topic we will delve into in subsequent segments.

240909T2.jpg

Next, we delve into the semiconductor industry, which has been making headlines this year due to its pivotal role in the global AI-driven surge. Although worldwide semiconductor sales remain robust, with double-digit growth rates, recent months have seen this growth level off, hovering just below 20%, as illustrated in Chart 3. Asia continues to lead in semiconductor sales, accounting for over 60% of the global market. However, growth in this region appears to have plateaued, while the Americas have rapidly increased their market share. Notably, the Americas surpassed China in semiconductor sales for the first time since China’s sales data was separately reported in 2015. Looking ahead, we can expect ongoing shifts in the semiconductor landscape. Factors contributing to these changes include the US's aggressive strategy to onshore chip production through the CHIPS Act, export controls impacting China's capabilities, and ASEAN countries' efforts to ascend the semiconductor value chain—a topic we will explore further below.

240909T3.jpg

**Economy-specific developments**
The electronics sector remains a major driver of Taiwan's economy. This extends beyond semiconductors to include computers and other consumer electronics, which have experienced even faster industrial production growth, as illustrated in Chart 4. In addition to the direct revenue from electronics exports, Taiwan also gains from other benefits, including job creation and enhanced expertise. However, the current tech upcycle is attracting increased competition. Other Asian economies are positioning themselves to gain a larger share of the supply chain. In the semiconductor foundry sector, competition remains fierce among Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), South Korea’s Samsung Electronics, and the US-based Intel. The rivalry is particularly intense at the cutting edge, as these companies strive to advance their next-generation sub-2 nanometer chips into mass production in the coming years.

240909T4.jpg

Next, we turn our attention to Malaysia, which has been making significant strides in the semiconductor industry. Like several other Asian economies, Malaysia has increasingly benefited from manufacturers seeking to diversify their supply chains to mitigate the risks of concentrating chip production in a single geographic location. Much of Malaysia's semiconductor growth is centred in the northern state of Penang. Although Penang is home to just under two million of Malaysia's total population of approximately 34 million, it hosts semiconductor assembly, testing, and packaging facilities for several major global companies. This burgeoning semiconductor ecosystem has also led Penang to record the highest investment inflows of any state in Malaysia in 2023, totalling 71.9 billion ringgit ($16.6 billion). These inflows are predominantly foreign direct investment (FDI), contributing significantly to Malaysia's overall FDI, as illustrated in Chart 5. Looking ahead, Malaysia aims to advance further up the semiconductor value chain by gaining a foothold in chip design. Recent developments have been promising: in early August, Malaysia officially launched its first semiconductor integrated circuit (IC) design hub in the state of Selangor, marking a key step towards achieving this goal.

240909T5.jpg

Lastly, we turn to India, a country that may not immediately come to mind as a major electronics hub, but which has been making significant strides to capture a larger share of the electronics pie in recent years. For instance, this year marks the first time iPhone Pro models will be produced in India, perhaps signalling that Prime Minister Modi’s incentives to attract high-end manufacturing are starting to bear fruit. Nonetheless, electronic products remain just a small proportion of India’s overall export mix. When it comes to semiconductors, it may still be early for India to achieve critical mass in the sector, although efforts are already underway. For example, just recently, India and Singapore signed agreements to enhance cooperation in semiconductors and digital technologies. The agreement could prove highly beneficial for India, as Singapore is a major player in the global chipmaking and semiconductor machinery markets, possessing substantial expertise in this field.

240909T6.jpg

Asia

Economic Letter From Asia: Chipping In

240906A2.jpg

240906B2.jpg

Nonfarm payrolls increased 142,000 (1.5% y/y) during August after rising 89,000 in July, revised from 114,000. During June, payrolls rose 118,000, revised from 179,000 while May payrolls rose an unrevised 216,000. Expectations had been for a 162,000 August increase in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Average hourly earnings strengthened 0.4% in August following unrevised gains of 0.2% and 0.3% in the prior two months. The y/y earnings increase improved to 3.8% from 3.6% in July, but was below the 5.9% high in March 2022.

The unemployment rate, measured in the household survey, eased to an expected 4.2% in August from 4.3% in July. It remained near the highest level since October 2021 after having reached a low of 3.4% in April of last year. Household employment rose 168,000 after increasing 67,000 in July. The labor force increased 120,000 after a 420,000 July rise. The overall unemployment rate, including workers who were marginally attached & working part-time for economic reasons, rose to 7.9% from 7.8% in July. It was the highest rate since October 2021.

In the **payroll survey**, private-sector employment increased 118,000 (1.4% y/y) in August after rising 74,000 in July. Construction sector employment increased 34,000 (2.8% y/y) last month after rising 13,000 in July. Factory sector payrolls offset this rise with a 24,000 decline (-0.1% y/y) after a 6,000 in July increase. Mining & logging sector jobs held steady (-1.2% y/y) after a 1,000 July increase.

Private service-producing sector employment increased 108,000 in August (1.5% y/y) after a 54,000 July rise. Employment changes varied greatly amongst service sector categories. Education & health service jobs rose 47,000 (3.9% y/y) following a 55,000 July rise while leisure & hospitality employment rose 46,000 (1.7% y/y) after a 24,000 gain. Professional & business service jobs improved 8,000 (0.4% y/y) after falling 13,000 in July. Within that category, the number of temporary jobs declined 2,900 (-5.8% y/y) and have fallen consistently since a March 2022 high. Trade, transportation & utilities employment gained 2,000 (0.7% y/y) after rising 9,000 as the number of retail jobs fell 11,100 (+0.4% y/y). Financial activities jobs rose 11,000 (0.4% y/y) after falling 1,000 in July. Information sector employment fell 7,000 (+0.1% y/y) after weakening 15,000 in July.

Government sector payrolls increased 24,000 last month (1.9% y/y) after 15,000 July increase. Local government jobs rose 22,000 (1.8% y/y) after July’s rise of 5,000, while state government employment edged 1,000 higher (2.3% y/y) after a 10,000 gain. The number of federal government jobs also inched 1,000 higher (2.0% y/y) after holding steady in July.

The 0.4% August rise in private-sector average hourly earnings reflected a 0.3% gain (4.7% y/y) in the goods-producing sector which was the same as in July. Earnings in construction improved 0.3% (4.4% y/y) following a 0.4% gain while factory sector pay increased 0.4% (4.9% y/y) after rising 0.2%. In the private services-sector, earnings rose 0.4% last month (3.6% y/y) after a 0.2% gain. Professional & business service sector earnings grew 0.4% (4.3% y/y) for the third time in four months. Leisure & hospitality earnings improved 0.2% (4.0% y/y) while information sector earnings strengthened 0.9% (3.7% y/y) after rising 0.4% for three straight months. Financial sector earnings rose 0.6% (4.6% y/y) after a 0.3% gain. Private education & health services earnings improved 0.2% (3.1% y/y), the same as in July. Trade, transportation and utilities pay rose 0.5% (3.0% y/y) in August after edging 0.1% higher in July.

240906C2.jpg

240906D2.jpg

The length of the average workweek in the private sector edged up to 34.3 hours in August from 34.2 in July. The workweek in the goods-producing sector of 39.8 hours last month compared to 39.7 hours in July. The construction sector average workweek lengthened to 39.0 hours from 38.9. The factory sector workweek improved to 40.0 hours from 39.9 while the average workweek in the private service sector remained at 33.2 hours for the fifth straight month.

In the **household survey**, the decline in the jobless rate to 4.2% occurred as employment and the size of the labor force rose slightly. The labor force participation rate held at 62.7%. The rate for teenagers declined sharply for the third straight month from 38.1% in May to 35.7% last month, while for individuals aged 20-24, it also has fallen sharply to 70.5% from a high of 72.7% in January. For rate for workers aged 25-54, the rate eased to 83.9% but remained near the highest since 2001, and for workers 55 and over it rose to 38.6%, the highest level since March.

The employment/population ratio for all workers held steady at 60.0% in August and was slightly below where it was twelve months earlier. It remained below its high of 61.1% in February, 2020 just prior to the pandemic.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

240906X2.jpg

240906F2.jpg

- Job gain remains part of decelerating trend with earlier months’ growth revised lower.
- Earnings strengthen m/m but trend increase remains weak.
- Jobless rate edges lower; upward trend continues.

U.S. Employment Disappoints in August; Jobless Rate Eases

Robert Brusca

240906E.jpg

Industrial production in July fell sharply by 2.4% after rising 1.7% in June and falling 3.1% in May. As a result of this production turbulence, Germany continues to experience declining and decelerating output growth. Over 12-months output falls at a -5.3% rate, over six months the pace steps up slightly to a -5.5% annual rate, but over three months industrial production in Germany is falling at a -14% annual rate.

This sequential slippage is mirrored in the declines of consumer goods, capital goods and intermediate goods production where the production of each of these sectors declines over 12 months, six months, and three months. Consumer goods and intermediate goods decline slightly more slowly over six months compared to 12 months, but all the categories show much sharper declines over three months than over 12 months. There's a clear tenancy for German production to show bigger declines over shorter periods and that's a disturbing development. In addition, all the sectors show declines month-to-month in July.

Manufacturing output in total shows a decline of 3.2% in July. As for overall output, manufacturing increased in June and fell sharply in May. Sequentially manufacturing output is persistently decelerating, as its 5.8% 12-month drop becomes an annual rate of decline of 17% over three months.

**Hope in New Orders**
However, real manufacturing orders break this trend and may offer hope for a turnaround as real orders rise by 2.9% in July and by 4.6% in June after a 1.7% drop in May. Sequentially real orders are not just growing but they are accelerating from an increase of 3.8% over 12 months to an annual rate of 25.7% over three months. The path being sketched out by real manufacturing orders is explosively strong while the path being sketched out by actual manufacturing output is impulsively weak. So it looks like the resolution is going to be for manufacturing output to be dragged up from the depths in the coming months by strengthening orders- or at least that's how it appears from these trends. For the time being, sales remain weak, real sales and manufacturing fell in July, June, and May; they are declining at an accelerating pace from 12-months to six-months to three-months. Real sales and manufacturing declined, at a -5.8% rate over 12 months, at a -6.9% annual rate over six months and then at a -12.2% annual rate over three months. For the time being, manufacturing is a hotbed of cross currents.

**Indicators are mixed**
Other indicators from ZEW, from IFO and from the EU Commission are mixed. These are from surveys that often are a little bit more sensitive and up-to-date readings than data on actually booked orders or on actually executed output or experienced sales. However, there is no hint of the kind of strength that we see in orders in these indicators. The ZEW current index shows negative readings sequentially from 12-months to six-months to three-months, but it does improve sequentially in modest steps. The IFO index for manufacturing does show some step up from 12-months to six-months to three-months. IFO manufacturing expectations also step up from 12-months to six-months to three-months but even this is somewhat moderate from 87.8 as an index reading over 12-months to 90.9 over six months to 92.2 over three months; it's a progression of advance but a minor league advance. Meanwhile, the EU Commission indexes show weakening from a -16.5 in their net diffusion reading over 12 months, to -17.7 over six months, to -17.8 over three months.

**Other Europe**
Three European countries are early manufacturing reporters: Portugal, France, and Norway. Among these three countries, two of them have output declines in July. Norway is the exception with a solid 2% increase month-to-month in July, an increase of 2% in June and at 1.7% in May; it is showing accelerating growth from 12-months to six-months to three-months. Norway is a real success story. However, both Portugal and France show industrial production decelerating steadily from 12-months to six-months to three-months; in both cases, the three-month decline culminates in a negative growth rate in double-digits.

**Quarter-to-date trends**
The quarter-to-date statistics show declines across all German manufacturing categories apart from real manufacturing orders. Of course, that shows a sizeable gain of nearly 38% at an annual rate in the quarter. It stands alone in that regard. The other indicators from ZEW to the IFO to the EU Commission also decline in the quarter-to-date except for the current ZEW index which improves by 6.2 points in July compared to the previous quarter’s average level. Manufacturing output for the three European countries shows sizable declines in the quarter-to-date for Portugal and France with Norway showing an annual rate increase at a stupendously strong 26.3% annual rate.

On balance, manufacturing in Germany is weak and it's weak across all categories. The ray of hope comes from real manufacturing orders that are surging as strongly as current output is declining. Sales in manufacturing are also weak. The IFO indicators for Germany are showing some progression towards better circumstances as is the index from ZEW. The EU Commission is eroding slightly sequentially as well as in recent months. There is hope but it runs against the grain of trend.

240906.jpg

Germany

German IP Drops Sharply in July and Broadly

Andrew Cates

**The policy rate consensus** 
Dovish comments from central bankers in recent weeks have amplified expectations for a global policy easing cycle over the past few weeks. Fed Chair Powell’s address at the Jackson Hole symposium, in which he noted that upside risks to inflation have diminished, and the downside risks to employment have increased, have certainly suggested the direction of travel for US policy rates is clear. This chimes too with the latest survey of Blue Chip Financial Forecasts. US policy rates, for example, are expected to decline from current levels by nearly 150bps over the next 12 months. That contrasts with the UK and euro area, where policy rates are expected to decline by 130 and 138 basis points respectively.

240905Z1.jpg

**Inflation progress**
Well-behaved inflation data have been another key driver of these interest rate expectations. Headline inflation rates in most major economies have continued to decline over the past few weeks and, at least as far as the US, the euro area and the UK are concerned, were not that far above central banks’ target levels. Incoming inflation data have, on the whole, also been surprising forecasters’ expectations on the downside in recent weeks with some underlying stability in the price of oil a key factor assisting that trend (chart 2).

240905Z2.jpg

**The global business cycle**
While forward-looking PMI readings for many economies have remained relatively stable in recent months, several have experienced some significant swings. For instance, France has seen a notable improvement, though it is worth noting that the August figures were significantly bolstered by activity from the Olympic Games. Conversely, Germany has struggled, with its PMI falling further into contraction territory due to ongoing weaknesses in the manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, India continues to stand out relative to its peers with consistently strong PMI readings over recent months (see chart 3).

240905Z3.jpg

**China’s excess capacity**
China’s economy stands out too as its latest PMI survey suggest its economy has lost much momentum over the past 3 months, largely because of some further weakening in the manufacturing sector. Digging into some of the underlying details of the manufacturing survey also reveals persistent downward pressure on that sector’s output prices (chart 4). Given the importance of China’s manufacturing sector for world trade, which might herald broader disinflationary pressures in the traded goods sector in the period ahead as well.

240905Z4.jpg

**Japan’s carry trade**
While some of the initial volatility in Japan’s currency markets has stabilized since the decision by the BoJ to lifts its policy rate, fundamental drivers are turning increasingly unfavourable for the carry trade. Specifically, Japan’s yield differentials with other major economies are becoming less advantageous, as evidenced in chart 5 below. As chart 1 above additionally underscores, this shift is being further compounded by the BoJ’s ongoing – and expected - tightening measures, which stand in vivid contrast to the easing cycles now underway from other major central banks.

240905Z5.jpg

**US monetary policy and labour markets**
With central banks arguably now slowly switching their attention away from inflation, the prospective dataflow on economic growth – and perhaps more significantly, labour market activity - is taking on more importance. On that score (and writing ahead of the publication of August’s US employment report on Friday September 6th) it has certainly been notable that much of the incoming US labour market data have disappointed expectations in recent weeks and that financial markets have responded to this by pricing in more easing from the US Fed (see chart 6).

240905Z6.jpg

With the summer vacation season now over in the Northern Hemisphere our charts this week shed light on recent and prospective developments in the world economy. Latest data have, on the whole, reinforced expectations that most central banks will loosen monetary policy in the immediate months ahead (chart 1). And that’s partly because incoming inflation data have been well-behaved (chart 2). In the meantime, forward-looking survey data have, with one or two exceptions, remained above the threshold that would typically generate recession alarms (chart 3). Soft landing narratives have, accordingly, remained in vogue. That being said, lingering imbalances—particularly in China (chart 4)—combined with growing concerns about an unwinding of Japan’s carry trade (chart 5), have left the risks to the global economic outlook skewed to the downside. Added to that, the potential profitability of technology companies and the broader health of the US economy are also now being more actively challenged (chart 6). Either way, central banks continue to face a complex mix of challenges in the period ahead, not least if political instability (e.g. in the US) were to hamper confidence in the final quarter of this year.

<iframe style="border-radius:12px" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/5FLeCL9f8pTNDpcQT3BvWv?utm_source=generator" width="100%" height="152" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Charts of the Week: Back to School

240905J5.jpg

240905K5.jpg

The ADP National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls rose 99,000 (1.3% y/y) during August following a 111,000 July increase, revised from 122,000. June’s rise of 155,000 was unrevised. It was the weakest increase since January 2021, down from the most recent high of 211,000 in March of this year. A 148,000 rise in ADP employment had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Growth in median annual pay for "job stayers" held at 4.8% y/y in August. It remained the weakest growth since July 2021 and well below a September 2022 high of 7.8% y/y. Pay increases in education & health services of 5.1% y/y compared to a high of 7.3% in October 2022 while construction sector earnings rose a diminished 5.2% y/y. Manufacturing pay growth averaged a steady 4.7% y/y and leisure & hospitality rose a diminished 4.9% y/y. Professional & business services pay grew a lessened 4.7% y/y. Pay increases for “job changers” averaged a steadied 7.3% y/y last month, remaining well below the 16.4% y/y peak in June 2022.

Small business hiring (less than 50 employees) declined 9,000 (+0.2% y/y) last month after easing 1,000 in July. Employment at medium-sized firms (50-499,000 employees) rose 68,000 (1.8% y/y) after a 60,000 July increase. These gains stood below the March high of 113,000. Large business hiring (500+ employees) rose 42,000 (2.7% y/y) during August following a 52,000 July gain. It remained the smallest increase since January.

Goods-producing employment rose 27,000 last month (1.0% y/y) after a 30,000 July rise. The number of construction sector jobs rose 27,000 (3.6% y/y) following a 31,000 July increase. Hiring in the manufacturing sector fell 8,000 (-0.1% y/y) last month, the fourth consecutive monthly shortfall. Natural resource & mining hiring improved 8,000 (-1.9% y/y) after a 2,000 rise in July.

The number of service-producing jobs rose 72,000 (1.4% y/y) in August following an 81,000 July gain. Leisure & hospitality employment rose 11,000 (2.0% y/y) after improving 10,000 in July and education jobs gained 29,000 (2.3% y/y) following a 66,000 July increase. The number of jobs in trade, transportation & utilities increased 14,000 last month (0.9% y/y) following a 46,000 July gain. Employment in “other” services rose 20,000 (3.3% y/y) after increasing 16,000 in July. Moving lower, professional & business services employment declined 16,000 (+0.1% y/y) after falling 47,000 while information employment fell 4,000 (-1.8% y/y), the fifth consecutive monthly decline.

The ADP National Employment Report and Pay Insights data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Historical figures date back to January 2010 for private employment. Pay data date back to October 2020. The expectation figure is available in Haver's **AS1REPNA** database.

240905L5.jpg

240905M5.jpg

- Latest job gain is less-than-half its March 2024 high; factory jobs decline for fourth straight month.
- Service-sector slowdown is broad-based. Construction job growth slows. 
- Wage growth for “job stayers” stabilizes y/y.

Economy in Brief: 2002

Jump to: