Global| Dec 16 2002Empire State Factory Survey Improved Further in December
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey reported that the index of general business conditions improved in December and was positive for a second month. Modest deterioration had been expected by some forecasts. Diffusion indexes for new [...]
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey reported that the index of general business conditions improved in December and was positive for a second month. Modest deterioration had been expected by some forecasts.
Diffusion indexes for new orders, shipments and the length of the average employee workweek improved sharply. The index of prices paid fell for the second month.
The survey includes measures of business expectations, six months ahead. The diffusion index for general business conditions fell to the lowest level since January. Expectations for orders and shipments fell sharply.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey is a monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
Like the Philadelphia Fed Index of General Business Conditions, the Empire State Business Conditions Index reflects answers to an independent survey question, not the components.
For the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey report, click here
| Empire State Manufacturing Survey | Dec | Nov | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General business conditions (diffusion index) | 10.60 | 9.70 | -1.83 | 6.96 | -14.97 |
by Tom Moeller December 16, 2002
The National Association of Home Builders index of new home sales rose for December although the strong reading for November was revised slightly lower. The latest rise was to the highest level since November 2000.
Surveys of market conditions for current sales rose slightly but expected conditions in six months fell slightly.
Traffic of prospective buyers fell moderately to the midpoint of the range prevailing this year.
For a description of the housing market index from the National Association of Home Builders, visit the NAHB website.
| Nat'l Association of Home Builders | Dec | Nov | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Housing Market Index | 65 | 64 | 57 | 61 | 56 | 62 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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