Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/030922a.jpg" width="353">
Recent analysis from the US House Budget Committee highlighted two measures of the US employment situation. The latest Economic Update which contains the analysis is available <a href="http://www.house.gov/budget/econup091103.pdf">here</a>.
In fact, employment during the last six months as measured in the establishment survey has fallen at a 0.7% annual rate. Employment as measured in household survey, from which the unemployment rate is derived, has risen at a 0.3% rate during the period.
<a href="http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm">Here</a> is An &quot;Explanatory Note&quot; from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) regarding the employment figures.
New &quot;establishments&quot; generate jobs that are initially estimated in the payroll survey of employment. The number of these jobs is imputed using &quot;business deaths.&quot; Click <a href="http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm">here</a> for the new BLS methodology for estimation.
These jobs have been underestimated following past economic troughs and overestimated following cycle peaks. Subsequent revisions to the payroll figures historically have been positive following troughs and negative following peaks. 
During the last six months, the &quot;net birth/death adjustment&quot; made by BLS to the payroll employment figures has averaged 132,000 per month. That is versus a negative average six month adjustment made earlier this year.
Employment by new firms is captured immediately in the household employment survey.

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Recent analysis from the US House Budget Committee highlighted two measures of the US employment situation. The latest Economic Update which contains the analysis is available here. In fact, employment during the last six months as [...]

U.S. Employment Series Indicate Positive or Negative Growth

Carol Stone, CBE

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/030919c.jpg" width="353">
Hong Kong business sales data and industrial production showed widely divergent trends in the second quarter largely due to the differential impact of the SARS epidemic.
Domestic activity and tourism were hit hard by the highly contagious disease, as seen in the dramatically precipitous drops in sales at hotels, restaurants, tourism, air travel and local retail trade. Manufacturing activity, indicated in Hong Kong&#39;s &quot;index of industrial production&quot; has never really recovered after the 1997-98 currency crises, and it experienced one of its more severe decline in the second quarter. To be sure, economic sluggishness in many countries early this year would have also be a restraint for business activity in Hong Kong.
Notably, though, several important sectors expanded anyway during the period. Hong Kong is primarily a trade and transport center, and those activities continued apace. Export/import sales gained, and maritime transport held its first quarter level. Banking, insurance and other finance all increased. Also, encouragingly, monthly retail sales data indicate that virtually as soon as the incidence of new SARS cases moderated in early May, local consumers resumed shopping immediately. Employment finally turned upward just in August. Both of these developments bode well for an early rebound in the Hong Kong economy and suggest the disease had little or no lasting impact.

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</table>
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Hong Kong Sales and Production Data (% Changes)</th>
<th scope="col">2Q 03 (Q/Q)</th>
<th scope="col">1Q 03 (Q/Q)</th>
<th scope="col">2Q 03 (Y/Y)</th>
Q4/Q4
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">2002</td>
<td>2001</td>
<td>2000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Manufacturing Production</td>
<td>&nbsp;-4.3</td>
<td>&nbsp; -2.7</td>
<td>-12.5</td>
<td>-9.2</td>
<td>&nbsp; -9.4</td>
<td>-0.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Hotels</td>
<td>-60.9</td>
<td>-10.6</td>
<td>-64.3</td>
<td>12.6</td>
<td>-21.3</td>
<td>17.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Air Transport&nbsp;&nbsp;</td>
<td>-20.9</td>
<td>&nbsp; -8.2</td>
<td>-21.5</td>
<td>22.7</td>
<td>-15.0</td>
<td>22.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Tourism</td>
<td>&nbsp;-60.2&nbsp;</td>
<td>-20.4</td>
<td>-63.2</td>
<td>22.4</td>
<td>&nbsp; -2.8</td>
<td>13.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Maritime Transport</td>
<td>&nbsp; 0.8</td>
<td>&nbsp;&nbsp; 4.7</td>
<td>&nbsp;13.7</td>
<td>&nbsp; 5.9</td>
<td>&nbsp;&nbsp; 2.4</td>
<td>13.3</td>
</tr>
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<td class="firstcol">Export/Import Trade</td>
<td>&nbsp; 7.7</td>
<td>&nbsp; -3.1</td>
<td>&nbsp; 4.8</td>
<td>&nbsp; 5.4</td>
<td>-20.0</td>
<td>&nbsp;9.4</td>
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<td class="firstcol">Banking</td>
<td>11.9</td>
<td>-18.7</td>
<td>&nbsp; 2.3</td>
<td>&nbsp; 7.3</td>
<td>&nbsp;&nbsp; 4.5</td>
<td>-8.6</td>
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Hong Kong business sales data and industrial production showed widely divergent trends in the second quarter largely due to the differential impact of the SARS epidemic. Domestic activity and tourism were hit hard by the highly [...]

Hong Kong Trade & Finance Grow in Second Quarter -- Despite SARS

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/030919a.jpg" width="353">
The U.S. Government budget deficit deepened in August to $76.5B. That was versus a deficit of $54.7B in August &#39;02. The deficit was slightly shallower than most analysts had expected.
The Federal government&#39;s deficit totaled $400.5B with one month to go in fiscal year 2003. That&#39;s double the deficit through the first eleven months of FY2002. Sizable budget surpluses near $40B have been the norm for September in past fiscal years.
Net receipts for the first eleven months of FY03 fell 4.2% versus last year. Individual tax payments fell 8.1% as the unemployment rate rose and corporate income taxes fell 13.5% though profits have picked up some. Social insurance contributions rose 1.8% and excise taxes rose 0.3%. 
Federal net expenditures rose 7.0% versus last fiscal year&#39;s first eleven months. Defense spending surged 15.8%. Spending on health programs also was strong, up 11.8% and spending on education surged 15.9%. Spending on income security rose 7.4% while Medicare outlays rose 7.5%. Social Security outlays rose 4.0% to 21.8% of the budget. Interest expense fell 10.4% y/y.
The latest update of the budget and economic outlook from the Congressional Budget Office is available <a href="http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=4493&amp;sequence=0"> here.</a>

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E1/@E106/@E10602/@E10602.HTM"> US Government Finance</a></th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">Aug &#39;02</th>
<th scope="col">FY2002</th>
<th scope="col">FY2001</th>
<th scope="col">FY2000</th>
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<td class="firstcol">Budget Balance</td>
<td>$-76.5B</td>
<td>$-54.2B</td>
<td>$-54.7B</td>
<td>$-157.8B</td>
<td>$127.3B</td>
<td>$236.4B</td>
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<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Revenues</td>
<td>$114.3B</td>
<td>$123.6B</td>
<td>-8.3%</td>
<td>-6.9%</td>
<td>-1.7%</td>
<td>10.8%</td>
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<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Outlays</td>
<td>$190.7B</td>
<td>$177.8B</td>
<td>6.4%</td>
<td>7.9%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>5.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Wood Prices Surge, Gas Prices Moderate 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> September 19, 2003


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/030919b.jpg" width="353">
Prices for lumber &amp; plywood recently have surged as the hot US housing market drove up demand. Prices for random lengths of framing lumber were up by more than a third this week versus last year.
Moving more moderately, wholesale natural gas prices moved to the lowest levels of the year as inventories built, but prices still are up considerably from early last year.
Gasoline prices have moderated some recently, falling to an average $1.70 per gallon in the third week of September from a high of $1.75 late last month.
For the latest Short Term Energy Outlook from the US Department of Energy click <a href="http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html">here</a>.
Giving mixed signals of industrial sector activity, prices for steel scrap have been stable since mid-June, down slightly from the April highs but up 5.6% y/y. Prices for copper scrap recently have been similarly erratic and are down slightly versus last year

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/weekly/@W4/@W403/@W40303/@W40303.HTM"> US Retail Gasoline Prices</a></th>
<th scope="col">09/15/03</th>
<th scope="col">12/30/02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
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</thead>
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<td class="firstcol">All Formulations ($/Gal.)</td>
<td>$1.70</td>
<td>$1.44</td>
<td>21.1%</td>
<td>$1.34</td>
<td>$1.42</td>
<td>$1.48</td>
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The U.S. Government budget deficit deepened in August to $76.5B. That was versus a deficit of $54.7B in August '02. The deficit was slightly shallower than most analysts had expected. The Federal government's deficit totaled $400.5B [...]

U.S. Budget Deficit Plumbing New Depths

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/030918c.jpg" width="353">
A couple of weeks ago in this space, we bemoaned the onset of a slowdown in the Korean economy. Two down quarters of GDP in the first half of this year included declines across several sectors, especially exports. Now, today, labor market data for August hint that this weakness may only have been a temporary sinking spell. Employment rose in July, and while it fell back somewhat in August, the July gain broke a four-month string of declines.
In August, even as employment did ease back, unemployment also decreased, with a 0.3-percentage-point reduction in the rate. This reversed half of the increase from February through June, which had carried the rate from its five-year low of 3.0% up to 3.7%.
Clearly, two months don&#39;t make a trend, and the stabilization evident in the employment and unemployment figures in July and August may itself be a pause in a worsening trend. But general economic improvement elsewhere, particularly in the US, suggests that the gains in the Korean labor market may have some staying power.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
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<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">South Korea Labor Data</th>
<th scope="col">August 2003</th>
<th scope="col">July 2003</th>
<th scope="col">June 2003</th>
<th scope="col">Year/ Year</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Change in Total Employment (thousands)</td>
<td>-44</td>
<td>68</td>
<td>-28</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td colspan="3">Dec/Dec % Change</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">1.9%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
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<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate (%)</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>3.1% (Aug.2002)</td>
<td colspan="3">Annual Average</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">3.1%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
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A couple of weeks ago in this space, we bemoaned the onset of a slowdown in the Korean economy. Two down quarters of GDP in the first half of this year included declines across several sectors, especially exports. Now, today, labor [...]

Korean Labor Market Improves in August

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/030918a.jpg" width="353">
Initial claims for jobless insurance fell an unexpectedly sharp 29,000 to 399,000 last week. The prior week&#39;s level was revised up. Consensus expectations had been for claims of 410,000.
During the last ten years there has been a 80% correlation (inverse) between the level of initial claims and the y/y change in payroll employment.
The four-week moving average of initial claims rose to 410,750 (-0.1% y/y), the highest level since July, as a result of increases during the prior three weeks.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 39,000 to 3,683,000. The sharp 61,000 gain reported for the prior week was revised to a less steep 37,000.
The insured rate of unemployment held steady at 2.9%. The rate has averaged 2.9% since April.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"> <a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM"> Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">9/13/03</th>
<th scope="col">9/6/03</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
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<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>399.0</td>
<td>428.0</td>
<td>-4.8%</td>
<td>404.3</td>
<td>406.0</td>
<td>299.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>3,683</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>3,575</td>
<td>3,022</td>
<td>2,114</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Leading Indicators Up For Fourth Month 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> September 18, 2003


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/030918b.jpg" width="353">
The Conference Board reported that the Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose for the fourth consecutive month in August. The 0.4% gain was as expected. The prior month&#39;s increase was revised up to 0.6% from 0.4% reported last month.
Gains amongst the leaders&#39; component series eased to 45%. The diffusion of the prior month&#39;s gain was revised up to 70% from 50%. The percentage of leading components rising over a six month period rose to 85%, the highest level since January 2002.
A steeper yield curve, a higher money supply, higher building permits and stronger vendor performance had significant positive influences on the leading index. Negative influences from the other leading series were modest.
The Leading index is based on eight previously reported economic data series and two that are estimated.
The coincident indicators were unchanged following three months of slight increase.
The ratio of coincident-to-lagging indicators was unchanged for the second month at a record high level. The ratio is an indicator of excess relative to actual economic performance.
Visit the Conference Board&#39;s <a href="http://www.conference-board.org">site</a> for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
James H. Stock and Robert W. Watson ask &quot;<a href="http://www.rich.frb.org/pubs/eq/search.cfm/article=185">How Did Leading Indicator Forecasts Perform During the 2001 Recession</a>&quot; in this paper published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/BCI/BCI.HTM"> Business Cycle Indicators</a></th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
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</thead>
<tbody>
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<td class="firstcol">Leading</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Coincident</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Lagging</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
<td>-4.4%</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
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</table>
Philadelphia Fed Index Down A Bit 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> September 18, 2003


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/030918d.jpg" width="353">
The Philadelphia Fed&#146;s August index of general business conditions fell in September to 14.6 from 22.1 in August. Consensus expectations were for a reading of 17.5.
During the last twenty years there has been a 65% correlation between the level of the Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions Index and quarterly growth in real GDP. The correlation with quarterly growth in factory sector industrial production has been 77%.
Declines amongst the sub indexes were not broad based. The new orders, unfilled orders and employment indexes each improved, new orders to a cycle high.
Shipments and the factory workweek fell modestly.
The business conditions index reflects a separate survey question, not the sub indexes.
A separate survey of expected business conditions in six months rose to 66.2, the highest level since 1991.
The prices paid index rose further to 22.5.
The Philadelphia Fed index is based on a survey of 250 regional manufacturing firms, but these firms sell nationally and internationally.
The latest Business Outlook survey from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank can be found <a href="http://www.phil.frb.org/files/bos/bos0903.html">here</a>.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S5/@S504/@S504.HTM"> Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook</a></th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">Sept &#39;02</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
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</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">General Activity Index</td>
<td>14.6</td>
<td>22.1</td>
<td>0.4</td>
<td>7.7</td>
<td>-17.2</td>
<td>8.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Prices Paid Index</td>
<td>22.5</td>
<td>16.0</td>
<td>20.5</td>
<td>12.2</td>
<td>-0.9</td>
<td>27.2</td>
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</tbody>
</table>
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Initial claims for jobless insurance fell an unexpectedly sharp 29,000 to 399,000 last week. The prior week's level was revised up. Consensus expectations had been for claims of 410,000. During the last ten years there has been a 80% [...]

Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Below 400,000

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/030917d.jpg" width="353">
Labor force data for the UK out Wednesday show a continuing gain of 3,000 in employment in the three months centered on June from the three months centered on March (the customary style of the UK Statistics Office monthly reports on the labor force). Unemployment edged down 2,000 and the rate held steady at 5.1%. . Other details of this report reveal interesting trends in the workforce. The concept known as the &quot;labor force&quot; in the US is called the &quot;economically active population&quot; in the UK. It numbers some 29.4 million in the latest three-month period, constituting 63.1% of the population aged 16 and over. This proportion has changed little overall in the 11-year history of these data, by only 0.9 percentage point. However, such an aggregate figure masks significant shifts in labor force participation by various age groups. Relatively fewer young people are working or want to work, while the number of older workers is rising rapidly. It&#39;s not just that the population of old people is growing, their labor force participation -- or rather, for the UK, their &quot;rates of economic activity&quot; are showing marked increases. This indicates a recent and distinct shift away from &quot;early&quot; retirement, yielding an older, more experienced labor force in the UK.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Economic Activity Rates</th>
<th scope="col">Number&nbsp; (millions)</th>
<th scope="col">&quot;Jun&quot; &nbsp;(3&nbsp; months &nbsp;ended Jul)</th>
<th scope="col">&quot;Mar&quot; &nbsp;(3 months &nbsp;ended Apr)</th>
<th scope="col">Year Ago</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">All ages, 16+</td>
<td>29.4</td>
<td>63.1</td>
<td>63.0</td>
<td>62.8</td>
<td>62.9</td>
<td>62.7</td>
<td>62.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Ages 16-24</td>
<td>4.6</td>
<td>69.8</td>
<td>69.5</td>
<td>70.3</td>
<td>70.5</td>
<td>70.8</td>
<td>71.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Ages 25-34</td>
<td>6.6</td>
<td>83.4</td>
<td>83.3</td>
<td>83.7</td>
<td>83.7</td>
<td>83.8</td>
<td>84.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Ages 35-49</td>
<td>10.8</td>
<td>84.8</td>
<td>84.9</td>
<td>84.9</td>
<td>84.8</td>
<td>84.7</td>
<td>85.0</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Ages 50-59</td>
<td>6.5</td>
<td>72.5</td>
<td>72.4</td>
<td>70.6</td>
<td>70.8</td>
<td>70.2</td>
<td>69.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Ages 60 and over</td>
<td>1.0</td>
<td>9.1</td>
<td>9.0</td>
<td>8.7</td>
<td>8.7</td>
<td>8.3</td>
<td>8.2</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Labor force data for the UK out Wednesday show a continuing gain of 3,000 in employment in the three months centered on June from the three months centered on March (the customary style of the UK Statistics Office monthly reports on [...]

UK Employment Rises; Older Workers Increase Participation

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/030917a.jpg" width="353">
Housing starts fell 3.8% m/min August to 1.82 mil. units after rising for three consecutive months. Consensus expectations had been for starts of 1.83 mil. Starts in July were revised up to a new seventeen year high.
Single family starts fell 4.0% m/m. So far this year single family starts are up 5.1% from the 2002 average. July starts were revised up. 
Multi-family starts fell 3.1% last month but the slight decline previously reported for July was revised to a small gain. Multi-family starts this year are down 4.0% versus 2002.
Building permits rose 4.8% m/m in august and the July level was revised slightly higher. Permits for single family homes 2.9% (11.8% y/y) for the fifth straight monthly gain. Multi-family permits also rose.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E901/@E90101/@E90101.HTM"> Housing Starts (000s, AR)</a></th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>1,820</td>
<td>1,892</td>
<td>11.7%</td>
<td>1,711</td>
<td>1,601</td>
<td>1,573</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Single Family</td>
<td>1,476</td>
<td>1,537</td>
<td>18.2%</td>
<td>1,364</td>
<td>1,272</td>
<td>1,232</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Multi Family</td>
<td>344</td>
<td>355</td>
<td>-9.7%</td>
<td>347</td>
<td>330</td>
<td>341</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Building Permits</td>
<td>1,886</td>
<td>1,800</td>
<td>10.7%</td>
<td>1,750</td>
<td>1,637</td>
<td>1,598</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Mortgage Applications Fell 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> September 17, 2003


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/030917b.jpg" width="353">
The index of mortgage applications compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association fell 5.8% last week following a 22.8% jump the week prior.
Applications to refinance gave back 15.4% w/w of the 45.5% surge the prior period.
Purchase applications rose 5.8% for the third consecutive weekly gain. The level of purchase applications so far in September is 3.7% ahead of the August average.
During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing home sales.
Interest rates on a conventional 30-Year mortgage fell 10 basis points with the effective rate at 6.17%. That was versus a low 5.31% in the second week of June. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage fell 13 basis points to 5.51%.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders.
Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site <a href="http://www.mbaa.org">here</a> .

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</table>
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYW/@S5/@S5.HTM"> MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">9/12/03</th>
<th scope="col">9/05/03</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Market Index</td>
<td>726.7</td>
<td>771.8</td>
<td>799.7</td>
<td>625.6</td>
<td>322.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Purchase</td>
<td>432.4</td>
<td>408.8</td>
<td>354.7</td>
<td>304.9</td>
<td>302.7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Refinancing</td>
<td>2,438.5</td>
<td>2,883.6</td>
<td>3,388.0</td>
<td>2,491.0</td>
<td>438.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Small Business Felt Better 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> September 17, 2003


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/030917c.jpg" width="353">
The Small Business Optimism Index published by the National Federation of Independent Business improved sharply in August to 104.6, the highest level since 1986.
The percent of small business owners planning to increase employment rose to 14%, the highest level in a year.
The percent of owners planning to raise capital expenditures in the next 3-6 months rose to 32%, the highest level since May 2000.
About 24 million businesses exist in the United States. Small business creates 80% of all new jobs in America 
The latest report on Small Business Optimism is available <a href="http://www.nfib.com/cgi-bin/NFIB.dll/public/advocacy/researchStudyDisplay.jsp?BV_SessionID=@@@@0341112109.1063809316@@@@&amp;BV_EngineID=ccchadcjgfhfdkgcfngcfkmdffgdhfi.0&amp;contentId=3986063"> here</a>.

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</table>
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<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S7/@S7.HTM"> Nat&#39;l Federation of Independent Business</a></th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Small Business Optimism Index (1986=100)</td>
<td>104.6</td>
<td>100.6</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>101.2</td>
<td>98.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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Housing starts fell 3.8% m/min August to 1.82 mil. units after rising for three consecutive months. Consensus expectations had been for starts of 1.83 mil. Starts in July were revised up to a new seventeen year high. Single family [...]

Housing Starts Fell Slightly

Louise Curley

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/030916f.jpg" width="353">
The ZEW indicator of German Investor Confidence rose to 60.9.in September from 52,5 in August to reach its highest level since July 2002. Investors tend to appraise the future outlook positively. Rarely has the index been in negative territory when pessimists outweigh optimists. Over the long run, the average for the ZEW index is 33.
Although the ZEW index is an indicator of economic growth in the next six months, there are, currently, signs that economic activity is beginning to stabilize, if not actually to pick up after the GDP declines of 0.2% in the first quarter of the year and 0.1% in the second quarter. Industrial production, excluding construction, rose 2.18% in July and was slightly above a year ago. Construction was up 3.69% but was still below a year ago. Domestic new orders in manufacturing rose 1.54% in July, and they, too, remained below levels of a year ago. While these signs are encouraging. so far there are few signs of increased demand from consumers and foreigners. Foreign demand, however, may improve with increased activity in the U. S. and Japan and a more favorable Euro.

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<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"></th>
<th scope="col"></th>
<th scope="col"></th>
<th scope="col"></th>
<th scope="col">Percent&nbsp;&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Change</th>
<th scope="col"></th>
<th scope="col"></th>
<th scope="col"></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"></td>
<td>Sep 03</td>
<td>Aug 03</td>
<td>Sep 02</td>
<td>M/M</td>
<td>Y/Y</td>
<td>2002</td>
<td>2001</td>
<td>2000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">ZEW Indicator</td>
<td>60.5</td>
<td>52.5</td>
<td>39.5</td>
<td>8.4</td>
<td>21.4</td>
<td>45.3</td>
<td>2.8</td>
<td>59.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Industrial Production (1995=100)</td>
<td>July 03</td>
<td>Jun 03</td>
<td>July 02</td>
<td>M/M</td>
<td>Y/Y</td>
<td>2002</td>
<td>2001</td>
<td>2000</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Total ex Construction</td>
<td>117.4</td>
<td>114.9</td>
<td>116.7</td>
<td>2.18</td>
<td>0.60</td>
<td>116.5</td>
<td>117.9</td>
<td>117.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Construction</td>
<td>75.8</td>
<td>73.1</td>
<td>76.2</td>
<td>3.69</td>
<td>-0.52</td>
<td>76.7</td>
<td>79.0</td>
<td>85.0</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Manufacturing New Orders (2000=100)</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;Domestic</td>
<td>92.3</td>
<td>90.9</td>
<td>94.1</td>
<td>1.54</td>
<td>-1.91</td>
<td>93.7</td>
<td>97.2</td>
<td>99.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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The ZEW indicator of German Investor Confidence rose to 60.9.in September from 52,5 in August to reach its highest level since July 2002. Investors tend to appraise the future outlook positively. Rarely has the index been in negative [...]

German Investors Becoming More Confident

PMIs showing widespread revival of global economy

Crude oil price has returned to pre-conflict level but traffic through Hormuz still subpar

Surging orders for computers and electronics propelling durable goods orders

Next year's inflation forecasts are on the rise and above target

Disrupted global supply chains placing upward pressure on US goods prices

Construction of data centers has overtaken transportation construction in US

Elevated energy prices putting intense upward pressure on input prices around the globe

US is big leader in global surge in private AI investment

Larger-than-usual income tax refunds this year are supporting consumer spending

Sharply rising share of AI-related jobs

Inflationary impact of surge in oil prices larger in Europe than in the US

Futures market thinks the price of oil will recede significantly over the next six months

Recent pickup in US defense orders could help support overall growth ahead

Cost of transporting crude oil has soared to series high

Market-based inflation expectations have not yet reflected recent surge in oil prices

Global equity markets are fearing a major economic disruption from soaring oil prices

Is recent drop in sentiment signaling softer growth ahead?

With the Iran conflict, geopolitical risk has soared to alarming levels

Soaring AI-related investment in US underpinning strong contribution of business spending to overall growth

AI-related outperformance of IP in Advanced Asia ex Japan

Resilient US economy pushing up Blue Chip 2026 outlook

US and China big leaders in adoption of AI models

Robust US demand for advanced technology products

China's export growth rotating away from the US

More pronounced upward revisions in countries more exposed to AI investment

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Tian Yong Woon

In this week's Letter, we examine the underbelly of the AI boom, the risks that sit beneath its optimism. Start with the public mood: American concern about AI has grown alongside adoption over the past three to four years (chart 1). Those worries span mass job displacement, misuse of top-end models by bad actors, and fears of being left behind. The first of these is already surfacing: in June, AI was again the most cited reason for announced US layoffs, with year-to-date AI-linked cuts above 100,000 (chart 2). Technology led all sectors in overall cuts, though the data do not isolate how many were AI-driven. Among those hit, the young are arguably the most exposed to these labour effects. They enter a labour pool swollen by displaced professionals, just as AI masters the entry-level tasks where they would start. India and Indonesia illustrate the stakes on youth NEET, the share not in education, employment, or training, both above 20% and among Asia's highest (chart 3). Beyond the labour market, the same optimism reshapes asset prices. The rally has lifted AI-related valuations to historic highs and concentrated a few names in cap-weighted indexes (chart 4). That raises correlation and the risk of a sharper index fall should the rally unravel. The same concentration runs through economies via exports, from Taiwan's advanced chips to South Korea's memory (chart 5). Its footprint is physical too, and cuts both ways: data-centre investment has lifted growth in Johor, Malaysia (chart 6) while straining local power and water. None of this argues against riding the AI wave, which still promises real productivity and welfare gains. Rather, these are caveats that investors and policymakers must keep in view, since the story is not all upside.

**AI-related concerns**
AI adoption has exploded over the past three to four years, and Americans' concerns have risen alongside it (chart 1). That is understandable, given how advanced and broad AI's proven applications have become. They now span everyday tasks and subject-specific work across fields such as finance and production, as well as tech and development, the sector AI was born in. Major concerns run from mass AI-induced job displacement to a more recent fear, that top-end models fall into the wrong hands and are used by bad actors. A further worry is distributional: AI advances are powerful and could deliver leaps in productivity, yet they may also leave many people behind. Those most exposed include workers already displaced from their jobs and people facing scarcer basic resources as AI demand competes for them. Others simply lack equitable access to AI tools or their benefits.

260713T1.jpg

**AI-driven job displacement**
Some of the fears US workers first had about AI-driven job displacement are already playing out. In June, AI was again the most cited reason for announced job cuts in the US (chart 2). That pushed year-to-date job cuts attributed to AI above 100,000, more than half of all AI-tagged cuts since AI became a selectable reason in 2023. The data come from the latest survey by Challenger, Gray & Christmas. This likely reflects AI's disproportionately heavy impact on certain industries such as technology, which again led all sectors in cuts. At the same time, announced hiring plans stayed subdued, leaving laid-off workers with limited opportunities to find new roles. All of this is occurring even as market valuations remain elevated on the broader wave of AI optimism.

260713T2.jpg

**AI and youth unemployment**
Arguably among those bearing the brunt of these labour-related effects are the youth. Many have graduated on a curriculum built largely for a pre-AI era. They now enter a labour pool swollen by experienced professionals whom AI has displaced. At the same time, AI is proving especially capable at the entry-level tasks on which young workers usually start. An elevated youth unemployment rate only intensifies the competition young people face for gainful employment. On the broader NEET measure, which also captures youth who are neither working nor studying, India and Indonesia stand out. On the latest available WDI data, both have youth NEET rates above 20%, among the highest in Asia and above the global average (chart 3). Should employers in these economies adopt AI aggressively across processes and production, including physical AI such as humanoid robots, the problem could worsen. Yet firms that stay purely labour-intensive risk losing out to rivals using more efficient, and perhaps cheaper, AI-driven methods.

260713T3.jpg

**Concentration risk**
The recent wave of AI optimism has pushed the equity valuations of major AI developers and AI-related goods producers to historically high levels. These gains are partly backed by strong earnings and upbeat forward guidance. Most major indexes are weighted by market capitalisation, so a counter's weight tracks its price. As these counters have outperformed their peers (chart 4), their index weight has risen close to mechanically, when holding the number of shares constant. This raises concentration risk, since a small group of counters now carries more of the index and moves it more closely. So, if the rally in these counters were to unravel deeply, it would drag the broader index down more heavily with it.

260713T4.jpg

AI-related concentration risk is not confined to equity indexes; it also shows up in the growth of major economies. In Asia, that risk usually runs through a country's exports. Take Taiwan, the world's largest advanced semiconductor exporter, as an example. As chart 5 shows, its recent export growth has come more than entirely from integrated circuits and from infocomm and audiovisual equipment. Other goods categories have often contributed negatively in recent months. This is good news for the Taiwanese economy, which sits right at the centre of the global AI boom. Yet it is also a source of concentration risk, should AI-related goods demand collapse or substantial alternative supply emerge elsewhere. A similar story applies to South Korea, through its role in supplying high-end memory chips.

260713T5.jpg

**Data centres, energy, and water**
Finally, rapidly advancing AI promises major productivity gains and broad improvements to daily life. Yet AI infrastructure rests on resource-intensive inputs: the energy needed for data centre compute, and the water needed to cool those centres. Both may deprive real people of the very resources they need to survive. One recent hotspot is Malaysia, which has courted a wave of foreign direct investment to expand its data centre footprint in the state of Johor. These capital inflows are welcome, and have lifted state-level growth through the construction sector (chart 6). But they have also raised concerns about straining local grids and water supplies, possibly leaving less for residents. Among estimates, a recent one puts data centres at around 40% of Johor's electricity demand by 2035. That is pressuring the state to expand generation capacity and grid access to match the data centre pipeline already in place. Its neighbour Singapore faced similar strains earlier, and has since repositioned itself as a hub for the most advanced and efficient data centres, partly because of its severe land constraints. 

260713T6.jpg

Asia

Economic Letter from Asia: The AI Underbelly

Robert Brusca

260714E.jpg

Industrial output in Norway fell by 1% in May after rising by 0.6 in April and falling by 1.1% in March. The seesaw act for output continues. Over broader horizons, however, output is falling. It falls by 0.1% over 12 months, falls at a 1.1% annual rate over six months, and falls at a 6.2% annual rate over three months, giving us a clear sequential trend toward falling and decelerating output. Utilities output has chaotic trends, as do mining and quarrying; however, manufacturing shows a clear trend toward output acceleration, with a 2.1% output increase over 12 months, a 2.6% annual rate rise over six months, and a 9% annual rate increase over three months.

Manufacturing sectors show consumer goods output increasing in May, also showing secular acceleration from 12 months to six months to three months. Durable goods, however, are the fly in the ointment, with output up 2.2% over 12 months, accelerating over six months, and then dropping at a 20.4% annual rate over three months. However, consumer nondurables show growth and acceleration, with a 12-month gain of 1.8%, rising to a 3.6% annual rate increase over six months and a 10.9% annual rate increase over three months. Intermediate goods output trends return to more difficult times and show declines over 12 months, six months, and three months, but not a clear path of deceleration. Capital goods output is up 5.4% over 12 months and at an 8.5% annual rate over three months, but there is an intervening soft spot with output up at only a 3.4% annual rate over six months.

Against this background, inflation in Norway showed solid increases in May, rising by 0.2% overall and by 0.3% for the core HICP. However, sequentially inflation gains 3% over 12 months, rises at a 3.8% annual rate over six months, and then backs down to a 1.2% annual rate over three months. The core HICP is steadier, with a 3.4% gain over 12 months, rising to a 3.8% annual rate over six months, and then backing down to 3.2% at an annual rate over three months. That's a set of growth rates that are more stable than either accelerating or decelerating.

In the quarter-to-date (QTD) basis, industrial production is falling 4.6%; this is two months into the second quarter. On the other hand, manufacturing output is rising QTD at a 4.9% annual rate, with consumer nondurables showing strong positive growth along with intermediate goods output. There is a solid gain of 3.1% at an annual rate from capital goods. The QTD inflation trends remain somewhat mixed, with a weak headline showing a 1.6% annual rate, against a core HICP at a 3.4% annual rate rise, the latter gain being well in step with its sequential results.

The far right-hand column compares industrial production over the broad period from just before COVID (in January 2020) looking at the ratio of the level of output in May 2026 to its index value in January 2020. Remember that IP data are inflation-adjusted, so these are real data. Over this span, industrial production excluding construction is up by approximately 10%, with utilities output up at about 21%, mining and quarrying up about 5%, and manufacturing up a little more than 7%. This is a 5½-year period. Consumer goods output is up by 2.7%, led by consumer nondurables which rise 4.1% on the period and against durable goods output where there is a decline of about 13% on that timeline. Intermediate goods output drops slightly on the timeline by less than half a percentage point, while capital goods output is up at a solid and strong 23% gain. Looking at prices over the same period, the headline HICP is higher by 27% while the core is higher by 24%.

The weakened output shows the stresses and strains of the period, with weak gains in place over the last 5½ years and with the consumer showing considerable wear and tear, leaving consumer goods output lower on balance over this 5½-year span. It hasn't been such a bad time for capital goods, where output rose by 23% over the period. Inflation got out-of-the-box and grew quite strongly. The headline HICP grew by 27% since January 2020, a duration of time during which, sticking to its target, would have implied a gain in the price level of only 11.5%.

**Ongoing overshooting**
Even now central banks are trying to decide how to come to grips with the inflation pressures from that. Pressures continue to linger and threaten the economies. Of course, there are some new factors in place, but that's the nature of inflation: if it's not one thing, it's something else. And failing to respond to the one thing means that you're going to get hit even worse when it becomes something else. This is the lesson the central banks haven't learned during this period. 

**Have central banks learned their lesson?**
Noting that inflation is over target and then forecasting that it's going to come back down to target over some period ahead puts the inflation performance at risk to whatever happens between now and the end of that period ‘ahead.’ If that forecast isn't perfectly right and if there's something else that disturbs the path of prices, what will happen is that an inflation that is already over the top of the target will push even farther over the top of the target and the dilemma faced by the central bank will become even worse. This is why kicking the can down the road generally is not a very good strategy, but it's one that virtually all the central banks pursued in the wake of COVID. So, will central bankers come to see inflation that is here and now as a here-and-now problem to be addressed here and now, or as a candidate for tomorrow land? The ECB seems to be changing, and the Fed has formed task forces. What about Norway and the rest of the world? Norway did push its target rate up as the ECB hiked. But what is its plan?

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Norway

Norwegian IP Struggles, but Manufacturing Shows Some Strength

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Manufacturing output in the countries of the European Monetary Union continues to underperform. The median change for the 11 countries reporting on the table is a 0.5% decline in May following a 0.3% increase in April. However, only 41.7% of the reporters are accelerating in May, compared to 25% in April, although in March over half of the reporters had showed some acceleration, with output at 61.5%.

In May, of these eleven early reporters, seven showed month-to-month declines in output. This compares to four showing declines in April and four showing declines in March.

**Sequential trends**
Over 12 months, output is declining in four of these eleven countries: Germany, Luxembourg, Ireland, and Portugal. Over six months, output declines in five of the eleven countries. Over three months, output declines in four of the eleven countries. Over these broader sequential periods, output is increasing in most cases; only one country, Ireland, shows consistent declines in output over three months, six months, and 12 months. However, among EMU countries, only Italy shows output expanding on all three timelines, although Sweden, an EU member country, also shows output increasing in all three periods.

Amid the output weakness in May, the quarter-to-date calculation for industrial production growth is also broadly weak. In May, seven of the eleven quarter-to-date changes in industrial production are negative. Positive results, increases in the quarter-to-date, are registered by Germany, Luxembourg, Greece, and Portugal.

The ranking of the year-over-year growth rates shows seven countries with output growth rate rankings below 50%, marking them as below their respective medians. The comparisons for output growth are taken back to 2006, a period of about 20 years.

Four EMU countries rank above their twenty-year medians: France, Italy, Luxembourg, and Greece.

The snapshot of industry in the monetary union is consistent, showing little momentum, little strength, and relatively low rankings for current growth rates; only a minority of reporters show an acceleration in growth in May compared to April. With the situation in the Strait of Hormuz deteriorating again, the outlook for industrial production has to remain guarded.

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Europe

Industrial Sector Remains Under Pressure in EMU

Andrew Cates

**Growth Surprises Continue to Underpin Equity Resilience**
Global equity markets have proved remarkably resilient in recent weeks, shrugging off intermittent bouts of geopolitical and policy uncertainty to grind higher. Chart 1 below helps explain why: it tracks the relationship between global growth-versus-inflation surprises and world equity markets, and on that measure the recent run of global growth data has continued to surprise on the upside relative to inflation outturns — a combination that has historically been supportive for risk assets. Whether that resilience persists will depend on whether the growth-surprise advantage evident in the chart below can be sustained in the face of the inflationary pressures explored below.

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**PMIs Confirm a Broadly Solid Global Expansion**
This week's final composite PMI readings for June reinforced the broader impression of resilient global growth. As chart 2 below shows, most major economies posted readings comfortably in expansionary territory, with India continuing to lead the pack and the US not far behind. Even the laggards in the sample are hovering close to the expansion threshold rather than falling decisively below it, suggesting stabilisation rather than outright contraction (and with the UK a notable exception).

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**Inflation Surprises Are Creeping Back, and Bond Yields Are Taking Notice**
The US growth picture painted by Haver's surprise indices broadly echoes the message from the global PMI data. Chart 3 below shows the combined growth-and-inflation surprise index drifting higher this week, and closer inspection suggests growth is doing most of that work, with activity data continuing to outperform expectations. That is, on the face of it, good news. But it has not stopped bond markets from taking notice: short-dated Treasury yields have remained elevated in recent weeks, as stronger growth keeps alive the possibility that the Federal Reserve holds rates higher for longer or even lifts them in coming weeks.

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**Supply Chains Are Tightening** 
Latest data show that global supply chain pressures tightened by less in June than they had the month before, likely reflecting the easing of Middle East tensions through much of the period. Chart 4 below shows that pressures troughed in the middle of last year and have been building gradually since, though June's slower pace of tightening suggests that easing had started to feed through. Still, today's flare-up threatens to undo that improvement, particularly if it affects shipping routes or energy flows through the region once again.

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**Extreme Weather: An Old Supply-Side Risk Returns**
Geopolitics is not the only source of supply-side risk currently in play. Large parts of Europe have been gripped this week by another intense and prolonged heatwave, with temperatures in several major cities running well above seasonal norms. Extreme heat of this kind carries real economic costs: it depresses labour productivity, particularly in outdoor and manufacturing-adjacent sectors, strains electricity grids as air-conditioning demand spikes, and can disrupt agricultural output and river-based transport when water levels fall. Episodes like this have become more frequent in recent years, and while any single heatwave rarely shifts the macro picture on its own, the cumulative effect of more frequent and more severe weather events could start showing up in productivity and inflation data across the advanced economies. It is a reminder that the supply side of the global economy faces structural as well as cyclical challenges, and that climate-related disruption deserves a permanent place alongside geopolitics and demographics in any assessment of medium-term inflation risk.

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**AI Investment: The Other Side of the Supply Equation**
Set against these supply-side headwinds is a genuinely positive structural development: the extraordinary scale of private investment now flowing into artificial intelligence. Chart 6 below shows just how sharply that investment has grown in recent years, reaching a fresh high last year. If even a fraction of that investment translates into genuine productivity gains, it could provide a meaningful long-run offset to the energy, climate and geopolitical constraints highlighted elsewhere in this week's charts. The scale of the bet now being placed on AI is large enough that it is beginning to show up in aggregate investment and capital expenditure data across the advanced economies, and it is likely to remain one of the defining structural themes shaping the global growth outlook over the remainder of this decade.

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Global markets head into this week’s closing stages digesting a mixed set of signals. Last week's US non-farm payrolls report undershot expectations, adding to questions about the durability of the US labour market even as broader activity data have continued to hold up well. Compounding that picture, news broke today of renewed instability in the Middle East, reintroducing a geopolitical risk premium into markets just as investors had begun to look past it. Global equity markets have nonetheless remained resilient, continuing to track the broadly encouraging tone of incoming activity data (chart 1). That resilience was reinforced by a solid set of global PMIs across most major economies over the past few days (chart 2). Haver's surprise indices tell a similar story of positive growth momentum in the US, but with an important caveat: incoming inflation data have also been surprising to the upside, driven largely by higher oil prices (chart 3). These inflation risks could persist moreover, as global supply chain pressures have picked up in recent months and today's flare-up in the Middle East threatens to add further strain (chart 4). The world economy remains vulnerable to other supply-side shocks too, such as the extreme heat gripping much of Europe this week (chart 5). Still, on the other side of the ledger the enormous scale of investment now flowing into artificial intelligence could be a genuine source of supply-side potential (chart 6).

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Charts of the Week: Growth Holds Firm

Winnie Tapasanun

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Existing home sales unexpectedly fell 2.4% m/m (+2.8% y/y) to 4.09 million units (SAAR) in June, the first monthly decline since March, following an upwardly revised 3.7% increase to 4.19 million in May (previously +3.2%; 4.17 mil.), according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected June sales of 4.20 million units. Sales remained 36.4% below a high of 6.43 million in January 2022 and 38.0% below a peak of 6.60 million in January 2021. The June decline coincided with a rise in the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 6.49% in June, the highest since August 2025, after increasing to 6.44% in May, according to Freddie Mac. The sales figures are based on closings of sales contracts signed over the past couple of months.

Existing single-family home sales fell 2.4% (+3.3% y/y) to 3.73 million units in June, the first m/m fall in three months, following a 4.1% gain to 3.82 million in May, remaining 34.6% below a high of 5.70 million in January 2022. Sales of condos and co-ops decreased 2.7% (-2.7% y/y) to 360,000 in June, the lowest level since May 2025, after being unchanged m/m for the third successive month at 370,000, remaining 50.7% below a high of 730,000 in January 2022.

Regionally, June existing home sales declined m/m in all regions except the Northeast. Sales in the South dropped 3.6% (+3.8% y/y) to 1.89 million in June, a three-month low, after a 3.2% rise in May, and sales in the Midwest slid 3.0% (+2.1% y/y) to 980,000 following a 7.4% May advance; both posted the first m/m decrease in three months. Sales in the West fell 1.3% (+2.8% y/y) to 740,000, the lowest level since January, after being flat m/m at 750,000 in May. In contrast, sales in the Northeast increased 2.1% (0.0% y/y) to 480,000 after a 4.4% May gain. Notably, the South remained the dominant region, accounting for 46.2% of total U.S. existing home sales.

The median price of all existing homes (NSA) rose 2.2% (1.8% y/y) to $440,600 in June, the fifth consecutive m/m rise, on top of an upwardly revised 3.3% increase to $431,200 in May ($429,300 previously). Prices were 22.1% above a low of $360,800 in January 2023. The median price of an existing single-family home climbed 2.3% (1.8% y/y) to $446,400 in June, the fifth straight m/m increase, after a 3.4% advance to $436,400 in May. The median price of condos and co-ops, up for the sixth time in seven months, grew 0.6% (1.6% y/y) to $380,000 following a 1.0% May gain to $377,800. Regionally, overall prices rose m/m and y/y in June in the Northeast (+5.6%; +3.9% y/y), Midwest (+2.1%; +2.7% y/y), South (+1.0%; +0.9% y/y), and West (+0.8%; +0.9% y/y). All these price series were at their record highs.

Inventories of homes for sale fell m/m in June for the first time since December. The number of existing homes for sale (NSA) declined 0.6% (+1.3% y/y) to 1.56 million units following an upwardly revised 4.7% May rise to 1.57 million (the highest level since November 2019). The supply of homes on the market at the current selling rate (NSA) increased to 4.6 months in June from 4.5 months in May and April, matching the highest level since August 2025. A record low in supply of 1.6 months was in January 2022.

The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability are compiled by the National Association of Realtors. The data on single-family home sales extend back to February 1968. Total sales and price data and regional sales can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Regional price and affordability data and national inventory data are available in the **REALTOR** database. Mortgage interest rates can be found in the **WEEKLY** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- June sales -2.4% m/m to 4.09 mil., first drop in three mths.; +2.8% y/y, third straight y/y rise.
- Sales m/m down in the South (-3.6%), Midwest (-3.0%), and West (-1.3%); up in the Northeast (+2.1%).
- Sales y/y up in all regions except the Northeast w/ a flat reading.
- Median sales price +2.2% (+1.8% y/y) to $440,600, a record high.
- Unsold inventory -0.6% (+1.3% y/y) to 1.56 mil. units, first m/m decline since Dec.; 4.6 months' supply, highest since Aug. ’25.