Global| Sep 19 2003U.S. Budget Deficit Plumbing New Depths
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The U.S. Government budget deficit deepened in August to $76.5B. That was versus a deficit of $54.7B in August '02. The deficit was slightly shallower than most analysts had expected. The Federal government's deficit totaled $400.5B [...]
The U.S. Government budget deficit deepened in August to $76.5B. That was versus a deficit of $54.7B in August '02. The deficit was slightly shallower than most analysts had expected.
The Federal government's deficit totaled $400.5B with one month to go in fiscal year 2003. That's double the deficit through the first eleven months of FY2002. Sizable budget surpluses near $40B have been the norm for September in past fiscal years.
Net receipts for the first eleven months of FY03 fell 4.2% versus last year. Individual tax payments fell 8.1% as the unemployment rate rose and corporate income taxes fell 13.5% though profits have picked up some. Social insurance contributions rose 1.8% and excise taxes rose 0.3%.
Federal net expenditures rose 7.0% versus last fiscal year's first eleven months. Defense spending surged 15.8%. Spending on health programs also was strong, up 11.8% and spending on education surged 15.9%. Spending on income security rose 7.4% while Medicare outlays rose 7.5%. Social Security outlays rose 4.0% to 21.8% of the budget. Interest expense fell 10.4% y/y.
The latest update of the budget and economic outlook from the Congressional Budget Office is available here.
| US Government Finance | Aug | July | Aug '02 | FY2002 | FY2001 | FY2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance | $-76.5B | $-54.2B | $-54.7B | $-157.8B | $127.3B | $236.4B |
| Revenues | $114.3B | $123.6B | -8.3% | -6.9% | -1.7% | 10.8% |
| Outlays | $190.7B | $177.8B | 6.4% | 7.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% |
by Tom Moeller September 19, 2003
Prices for lumber & plywood recently have surged as the hot US housing market drove up demand. Prices for random lengths of framing lumber were up by more than a third this week versus last year.
Moving more moderately, wholesale natural gas prices moved to the lowest levels of the year as inventories built, but prices still are up considerably from early last year.
Gasoline prices have moderated some recently, falling to an average $1.70 per gallon in the third week of September from a high of $1.75 late last month.
For the latest Short Term Energy Outlook from the US Department of Energy click here.
Giving mixed signals of industrial sector activity, prices for steel scrap have been stable since mid-June, down slightly from the April highs but up 5.6% y/y. Prices for copper scrap recently have been similarly erratic and are down slightly versus last year
| US Retail Gasoline Prices | 09/15/03 | 12/30/02 | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Formulations ($/Gal.) | $1.70 | $1.44 | 21.1% | $1.34 | $1.42 | $1.48 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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