Global| Sep 17 2003Housing Starts Fell Slightly
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Housing starts fell 3.8% m/min August to 1.82 mil. units after rising for three consecutive months. Consensus expectations had been for starts of 1.83 mil. Starts in July were revised up to a new seventeen year high. Single family [...]
Housing starts fell 3.8% m/min August to 1.82 mil. units after rising for three consecutive months. Consensus expectations had been for starts of 1.83 mil. Starts in July were revised up to a new seventeen year high.
Single family starts fell 4.0% m/m. So far this year single family starts are up 5.1% from the 2002 average. July starts were revised up.
Multi-family starts fell 3.1% last month but the slight decline previously reported for July was revised to a small gain. Multi-family starts this year are down 4.0% versus 2002.
Building permits rose 4.8% m/m in august and the July level was revised slightly higher. Permits for single family homes 2.9% (11.8% y/y) for the fifth straight monthly gain. Multi-family permits also rose.
| Housing Starts (000s, AR) | Aug | July | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1,820 | 1,892 | 11.7% | 1,711 | 1,601 | 1,573 |
| Single Family | 1,476 | 1,537 | 18.2% | 1,364 | 1,272 | 1,232 |
| Multi Family | 344 | 355 | -9.7% | 347 | 330 | 341 |
| Building Permits | 1,886 | 1,800 | 10.7% | 1,750 | 1,637 | 1,598 |
by Tom Moeller September 17, 2003
The index of mortgage applications compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association fell 5.8% last week following a 22.8% jump the week prior.
Applications to refinance gave back 15.4% w/w of the 45.5% surge the prior period.
Purchase applications rose 5.8% for the third consecutive weekly gain. The level of purchase applications so far in September is 3.7% ahead of the August average.
During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing home sales.
Interest rates on a conventional 30-Year mortgage fell 10 basis points with the effective rate at 6.17%. That was versus a low 5.31% in the second week of June. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage fell 13 basis points to 5.51%.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders.
Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site here .
| MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100) | 9/12/03 | 9/05/03 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Market Index | 726.7 | 771.8 | 799.7 | 625.6 | 322.7 |
| Purchase | 432.4 | 408.8 | 354.7 | 304.9 | 302.7 |
| Refinancing | 2,438.5 | 2,883.6 | 3,388.0 | 2,491.0 | 438.8 |
by Tom Moeller September 17, 2003
The Small Business Optimism Index published by the National Federation of Independent Business improved sharply in August to 104.6, the highest level since 1986.
The percent of small business owners planning to increase employment rose to 14%, the highest level in a year.
The percent of owners planning to raise capital expenditures in the next 3-6 months rose to 32%, the highest level since May 2000.
About 24 million businesses exist in the United States. Small business creates 80% of all new jobs in America
The latest report on Small Business Optimism is available here.
| Nat'l Federation of Independent Business | Aug | July | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small Business Optimism Index (1986=100) | 104.6 | 100.6 | 3.1% | 101.2 | 98.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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