Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050513c.jpg" width="353">
Total business inventories rose 0.4% in March and the y/y rate of inventory accumulation continued strong at 7.9%. The ratio of inventories-to-sales fell slightly, however, and returned to the record low average of last year.
Retail inventories rose 0.3% in March and also gained 0.3% excluding autos. Inventories of furniture &amp; electronics increased 0.6% (6.2% y/y) following two months of decline and general merchandise doubled the prior month&#39;s increase with a 1.0% surge (6.6% y/y). Apparel inventories rose 0.5% (4.3% y/y).
Factory sector inventories grew 0.6% for the second month and the 8.9% increase versus last year remained the strongest since 1989.
Wholesale inventory accumulation moderated to 0.4%. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the y/y change in wholesale inventories and the change in imports of merchandise.
Overall business sales recovered 0.7% (6.7% y/y) after the 0.5% decline in February.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED06/@ED0601/@ED0601.HTM">Business Inventories</a></th>
<th scope="col">March</th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>7.9%</td>
<td>7.7%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Retail</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>4.8%</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>5.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Retail excl. Autos</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>6.5%</td>
<td>5.9%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Wholesale</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>10.8%</td>
<td>10.8%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Manufacturing</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>8.9%</td>
<td>7.5%</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
<td>-1.8%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Import Prices Surged 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> May 13, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050513a.jpg" width="353">
Import prices surged 0.8% last month following an upwardly revised 2.0% spike in March. Consensus expectations had been for a moderate 0.3% increase.
Petroleum prices jumped another 3.1% m/m and the March gain was revised up. While crude oil moderated and rose just 1.0%, a 9.9% jump in &quot;other&quot; petroleum product prices and a 12.4% gain gas prices lifted the fuel total. So far in May the price of Brent Crude oil has traded roughly 5% below the April average of $52.22 per barrel and yesterday touched $46.63.
Import prices other than petroleum rose 0.4% last month and again mostly reflected strength in prices of foods &amp; beverages (0.4% m/m, 8.5% y/y) and in prices for industrial supplies &amp; materials less petroleum (2.1% m/m, 11.5% y/y).
During the last ten years there has been a 66% (negative) correlation between the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies and the y/y change in non oil import prices. The correlation is a lower 47% against a broader basket of currencies and a lower 57% against the real value of the dollar. <img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050513b.jpg" width="353">
Prices for nonauto consumer goods fell 0.1% (+1.1% y/y) for the second down month and capital goods prices fell 0.1% (-0.5% y/y) for the third down month. Imported computer prices fell 1.1% (-7.1% y/y) although excluding computers capital goods prices rose a firm 0.3% (2.7% y/y).
Export prices again rose 0.6% on the strength of a 1.9% (14.0% y/y) surge in industrial materials.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E807/@E807.HTM">Import/Export Prices (NSA)</a></th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">March</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Import - All Commodities</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>8.1%</td>
<td>5.6%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>-2.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Petroleum</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>12.3%</td>
<td>43.1%</td>
<td>30.5%</td>
<td>21.0%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Non-petroleum</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>-2.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Export - All Commodities</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Consumer Sentiment Depressed 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> May 13, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050513d.jpg" width="353">
The University of Michigan&#39;s reading of consumer sentiment in May fell 2.7% from April to 85.3. The decline contrasted to Consensus expectations for stability at 88.0.
Sentiment has fallen in each of the last five months and is down 17.8% from the January &#39;04 peak. During the last ten years there has been a 75% (inverse) correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real PCE, although the correlation has fallen in recent years.
Consumer expectations were depressed mostly by a sense that unemployment would rise which generated expectations that real family income would decline, helped lower by an expected acceleration in price inflation.
The reading of current economic conditions fell 1.1% for the fourth consecutive monthly drop and reflected a sharp decline in the reading of personal finances to the lowest level since December 2003.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF14/@EF1402/@EF1402.HTM">University of Michigan</a></th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
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<td class="firstcol">Consumer Sentiment</td>
<td>85.3</td>
<td>87.7</td>
<td>-5.4%</td>
<td>95.2</td>
<td>87.6</td>
<td>89.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Current Conditions</td>
<td>103.3</td>
<td>104.4</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>105.6</td>
<td>97.2</td>
<td>97.5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Consumer Expectations</td>
<td>73.7</td>
<td>77.0</td>
<td>-9.7%</td>
<td>88.5</td>
<td>81.4</td>
<td>84.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
European Consumer Inflation Continues Moderate in the Face of Rising Energy 
by <a href="/comment/Stone.html">Carol Stone</a> May 13, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050513e.jpg" width="353">
A recurrent theme of our reports over the last couple of months has been the continuation of low consumer price inflation despite high energy prices. This phenomenon has persisted through April in several European countries that reported their latest CPI data today.
This is especially evident in France, where the total CPI has even slowed somewhat in the face of the recent surge in energy costs. The first four months of 2005 averaged year-on-year inflation of 1.8%, compared with a five-year average of 2.0%. Food is cheaper, clothing prices are little changed and manufactured goods have declined outright. Services prices have been rising 2.7%, but this is less than their 3%+ pace in 2002.
In Finland and Sweden, which we mentioned here a month ago, the 12-month change in total CPI ticked up by 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively from their March rates. But that still leaves Finland at 1.1% and Sweden at a mere 0.3%. In Spain, total inflation was 3.5% year-on-year in April, with some signs of upward creep. But the pace excluding energy has been steady at 2.9% for the last two years.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050513f.jpg" width="353">
Perhaps we are simply short-sighted in these comments; perhaps it simply takes longer than a year for the &quot;second-round&quot; effects of sustained energy prices to filter through to other items. Or perhaps, as we noted elsewhere recently, the second-round effects will appear more as restraints to demand growth than spurs to higher inflation.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/G10/G10.HTM">Yr/Yr % Changes</a> Not Seasonally Adjusted</th>
<th scope="col">Apr 2005</th>
<th scope="col">Mar 2005</th>
<th scope="col">Feb 2005</th>
December/December
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">2004</td>
<td>2003</td>
<td>2002</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">France</td>
<td>1.8</td>
<td>1.9</td>
<td>1.6</td>
<td>2.1</td>
<td>1.2</td>
<td>2.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Finland</td>
<td>1.1</td>
<td>1.0</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>0.4</td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>1.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Sweden</td>
<td>0.3</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>0.7</td>
<td>0.3</td>
<td>1.3</td>
<td>2.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Spain</td>
<td>3.5</td>
<td>3.4</td>
<td>3.3</td>
<td>3.2</td>
<td>2.6</td>
<td>4.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">US</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>3.1</td>
<td>3.0</td>
<td>3.3</td>
<td>1.9</td>
<td>2.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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Total business inventories rose 0.4% in March and the y/y rate of inventory accumulation continued strong at 7.9%. The ratio of inventories-to-sales fell slightly, however, and returned to the record low average of last year. Retail [...]

U.S. Business Inventories Rose

Carol Stone, CBE

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050512e.jpg" width="353">
The Euro-Zone had 0.5% GDP growth in Q1, according to the Eurostat &quot;Flash&quot; estimate released today. This produced a year-on-year result of 1.4%, moderately weaker than any quarter since Q4 2003. In these early &quot;Flash&quot; figures, no details are available by type of expenditure or industry, so there&#39;s no way to tell what factors contributed to the performance.
We do, however, know something about where the developments took place. Germany experienced a nice rebound, reaching 1.0% after two quarters of virtually no growth at all. Among other Euro-Zone countries, they join the UK with its 0.6% gain in boosting Europe&#39;s economy.
Elsewhere, results were not so attractive. Italy lost 0.5% and the Netherlands, 0.1%; Belgian GDP was unchanged. Both Italy and the Netherlands GDP also decreased year-on-year.
The Netherlands reported its expenditure breakdown; private consumption edged slightly lower, and investment contracted more sharply after a good gain in Q4. Net exports decreased. The only positive input came in inventories, which grew &#128;327 million compared to &#128;192 million in Q4.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050512f.jpg" width="353">
These data are mixed now by calculation methodology. As noted in the table below, &quot;real&quot; GDP for the overall Euro-Zone remains expressed in fixed-weights and 1995 prices; Italy&#39;s own data are also still on this basis. Germany, the UK and the Netherlands have all switched to annual chain-weighting, but Germany&#39;s reference year is 2000, the Netherlands, 1995 and the UK, 2001. Euro-Zone conventions call for all countries to switch to chain-linking by late 2006. There are also differences in the treatment of imputed charges for financial services, so-called &quot;FISIM&quot;. These are to be reconciled for the most part by the end of this year, with a few countries in 2006. Consumption and net exports will be affected. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/G10/G10.HTM">GDP % Changes</a></th>
<th scope="col">1 Qtr 2005</th>
<th scope="col">4 Qtr 2004</th>
<th scope="col">Year/ Year</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Euro-Zone (fixed 1995&#128;)</td>
<td>0.5</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>1.4</td>
<td>1.8</td>
<td>0.5</td>
<td>0.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Germany (chain 2000&#128;)</td>
<td>1.0</td>
<td>-0.1</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>1.6</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>0.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Italy (fixed 1995 &#128;)</td>
<td>-0.5</td>
<td>-0.4</td>
<td>-0.2</td>
<td>1.0</td>
<td>0.4</td>
<td>0.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Netherlands (chain 1995&#128;)</td>
<td>-0.1</td>
<td>-0.0</td>
<td>-0.3</td>
<td>1.4</td>
<td>-0.9</td>
<td>0.6</td>
</tr>
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The Euro-Zone had 0.5% GDP growth in Q1, according to the Eurostat "Flash" estimate released today. This produced a year-on-year result of 1.4%, moderately weaker than any quarter since Q4 2003. In these early "Flash" figures, no [...]

German Q1 Growth of 1% Boosts Euro-Zone Result to 0.5%

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050512d.jpg" width="353">
April tax revenues surged and reduced the U.S. federal government&#39;s budget deficit during the first seven months of FY 2005 by 16.5% versus the first the seven months of FY 2004.
Net receipts for the first seven months of FY05 jumped 13.7% y/y. Individual tax receipts surged 16.1% versus FY04 as April personal taxes rose 43.3% against April of last year. Corporate tax receipts continued up strongly. Reflecting the improved job market, employment taxes grew 6.0% versus 1.3% growth last year.
Growth in federal outlays remained about stable at 7.3% versus the first seven months of 2005. Growth in Medicare outlays was strong at 9.1% and social security outlays grew 5.5%. Veterans benefits grew 15.2% and defense spending slowed to 7.0% growth. Interest expense grew 11.1% with higher rates.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E1/@E106/@E10602/@E10602.HTM">US Government Finance</a></th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">March</th>
<th scope="col">FY &#39;05 - YTD</th>
<th scope="col">FY2004</th>
<th scope="col">FY2003</th>
<th scope="col">FY2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
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<td class="firstcol">Budget Balance</td>
<td>$57.7B</td>
<td>$-71.2B</td>
<td>$-236.9B</td>
<td>$-412.1B</td>
<td>$-377.6B</td>
<td>$-157.8B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Net Revenues</td>
<td>$277.6B</td>
<td>$148.7B</td>
<td>13.7%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>-3.8%</td>
<td>-6.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Net Outlays</td>
<td>$219.9B</td>
<td>$210.0B</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
<td>6.1%</td>
<td>7.4%</td>
<td>7.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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April tax revenues surged and reduced the U.S. federal government's budget deficit during the first seven months of FY 2005 by 16.5% versus the first the seven months of FY 2004. Net receipts for the first seven months of FY05 jumped [...]

Higher Tax Receipts Lowered U.S. Budget Deficit

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050512c.jpg" width="353">
The Leading Index of the Major 7 OECD economies fell for the second month. The 0.6% decline in March followed a downwardly revised 0.5% drop in February and pulled the index&#39;s six month growth rate negative.
During the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the change in the leading index and the q/q change in the GDP Volume Index for the Big Seven countries in the OECD.
The leaders for the European Union (15 countries) declined for the fourth straight month and the six month growth rate of 0.1% was down from roughly 6% a year ago. The German leaders fell for the fifth month in the last six due to weaker new orders, a negative yield curve and a worsening business climate. The six month growth rate fell to a -1.7%. The French leaders fell for the fifth consecutive month and the six month growth went negative for the first time since May 2003 as new job vacancies remained depressed, share prices meandered and industrial sector prospects deteriorated. The Italian leaders dipped for the forth month in five. The six month growth rate of -0.6% remained negative as it has since last May due to a lower future tendency of orders books and of production.
The leading index for the US economy fell a hard 1.0% and six month growth went negative for the first time since April 2003. A negative yield curve and a deteriorating business climate indicator caused the decline. The leaders for Japan fell for the fourth straight month and six month growth was a negative 0.7% due to a tighter yield curve and fewer overtime hours worked.
The UK economic leaders slipped for the fifth consecutive month with six month growth solidly negative at -1.2% due to higher interest rates and weaker export prospects.The Canadian leaders have trended lower for a year and six month growth of -3.5% was the worst in two years. The yield curve is sharply inverted and housing starts are down.
The latest OECD Leading Indicator report can be found <a href="http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/60/47/34858128.pdf">here</a>.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/OECDMEI/OECDMEI.HTM">OECD</a></th>
<th scope="col">March</th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
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<td class="firstcol">Composite Leading Index&nbsp;</td>
<td>101.37</td>
<td>102.00</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
<td>101.99</td>
<td>97.51</td>
<td>96.33</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;6 Month Growth Rate</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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The Leading Index of the Major 7 OECD economies fell for the second month. The 0.6% decline in March followed a downwardly revised 0.5% drop in February and pulled the index's six month growth rate negative. During the last ten years [...]

OECD Leaders Lost More Forward Momentum

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050512b.jpg" width="353">
For the third consecutive week, initial claims for unemployment insurance rose. The 4,000 increase to 340,000 was smaller than the gains during the earlier two weeks (the prior week&#39;s gain was revised slightly higher), but the latest level was 4.3% above the April average. Consensus expectations had been for 329,000 claims.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 65% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims rose to 324,000 (-4.8% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 15,000 and the prior week&#39;s gain was revised down slightly.
The insured unemployment rate held at 2.0% for the third consecutive weeks.
Self-employed immigrants: An analysis of recent data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago can be found <a href="http://www.chicagofed.org/publications/fedletter/cflapril2005_213.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">05/07/05</th>
<th scope="col">04/30/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>340</td>
<td>336</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>343</td>
<td>402</td>
<td>404</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>2,598</td>
<td>-12.6%</td>
<td>2,926</td>
<td>3,531</td>
<td>3,570</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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For the third consecutive week, initial claims for unemployment insurance rose. The 4,000 increase to 340,000 was smaller than the gains during the earlier two weeks (the prior week's gain was revised slightly higher), but the latest [...]

Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Up For Third Week

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050512a.jpg" width="353">
US retail sales jumped 1.4% last month following an upwardly revised 0.4% gain in March. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.7% April increase.
Excluding motor vehicles sales rose 1.1%, also twice the Consensus expectation.That followed a 0.2% March gain revised up slightly from the initial estimate of 0.1%. Nonauto retail sales less gasoline in April rose 1.0% (6.8% y/y) following a slight decline in March. Gasoline service station sales surged 1.9% (19.8% y/y).
A 1.2% (7.4% y/y) rise in building material store sales led last month&#39;s rise in spending, for the second month.
Spending on discretionary items was mixed. General merchandise store sales surged 1.5% (7.4% y/y) after falling 0.7% in March and apparel store sales recovered 2.8% (7.9% y/y) following the prior month&#39;s 2.2% decline. Furniture and electronics sales, however, fell slightly (+4.1% y/y) for the second consecutive month.
Sales of nonstore retailers (internet and catalogue) rose 0.4% (12.4% y/y) following a 1.8% March jump.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">March</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/usecon/@ED/@ED04/@ED0401/@ED0401.HTM">Retail Sales &amp; Food Services</a></td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>8.6%</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Excluding Autos</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>8.1%</td>
<td>8.3%</td>
<td>4.7%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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US retail sales jumped 1.4% last month following an upwardly revised 0.4% gain in March. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.7% April increase. Excluding motor vehicles sales rose 1.1%, also twice the Consensus expectation.That [...]

U.S. Retail Sales Jump

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050512a.jpg" width="353">
US retail sales jumped 1.4% last month following an upwardly revised 0.4% gain in March. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.7% April increase.
Excluding motor vehicles sales rose 1.1%, also twice the Consensus expectation.That followed a 0.2% March gain revised up slightly from the initial estimate of 0.1%. Nonauto retail sales less gasoline in April rose 1.0% (6.8% y/y) following a slight decline in March. Gasoline service station sales surged 1.9% (19.8% y/y).
A 1.2% (7.4% y/y) rise in building material store sales led last month&#39;s rise in spending, for the second month.
Spending on discretionary items was mixed. General merchandise store sales surged 1.5% (7.4% y/y) after falling 0.7% in March and apparel store sales recovered 2.8% (7.9% y/y) following the prior month&#39;s 2.2% decline. Furniture and electronics sales, however, fell slightly (+4.1% y/y) for the second consecutive month.
Sales of nonstore retailers (internet and catalogue) rose 0.4% (12.4% y/y) following a 1.8% March jump.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">March</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/usecon/@ED/@ED04/@ED0401/@ED0401.HTM">Retail Sales &amp; Food Services</a></td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>8.6%</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Excluding Autos</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>8.1%</td>
<td>8.3%</td>
<td>4.7%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Up For Third Week 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> May 12, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050512b.jpg" width="353">
For the third consecutive week, initial claims for unemployment insurance rose. The 4,000 increase to 340,000 was smaller than the gains during the earlier two weeks (the prior week&#39;s gain was revised slightly higher), but the latest level was 4.3% above the April average. Consensus expectations had been for 329,000 claims.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 65% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims rose to 324,000 (-4.8% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 15,000 and the prior week&#39;s gain was revised down slightly.
The insured unemployment rate held at 2.0% for the third consecutive weeks.
Self-employed immigrants: An analysis of recent data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago can be found <a href="http://www.chicagofed.org/publications/fedletter/cflapril2005_213.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">05/07/05</th>
<th scope="col">04/30/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>340</td>
<td>336</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>343</td>
<td>402</td>
<td>404</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>2,598</td>
<td>-12.6%</td>
<td>2,926</td>
<td>3,531</td>
<td>3,570</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
OECD Leaders Lost More Forward Momentum 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> May 12, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050512c.jpg" width="353">
The Leading Index of the Major 7 OECD economies fell for the second month. The 0.6% decline in March followed a downwardly revised 0.5% drop in February and pulled the index&#39;s six month growth rate negative.
During the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the change in the leading index and the q/q change in the GDP Volume Index for the Big Seven countries in the OECD.
The leaders for the European Union (15 countries) declined for the fourth straight month and the six month growth rate of 0.1% was down from roughly 6% a year ago. The German leaders fell for the fifth month in the last six due to weaker new orders, a negative yield curve and a worsening business climate. The six month growth rate fell to a -1.7%. The French leaders fell for the fifth consecutive month and the six month growth went negative for the first time since May 2003 as new job vacancies remained depressed, share prices meandered and industrial sector prospects deteriorated. The Italian leaders dipped for the forth month in five. The six month growth rate of -0.6% remained negative as it has since last May due to a lower future tendency of orders books and of production.
The leading index for the US economy fell a hard 1.0% and six month growth went negative for the first time since April 2003. A negative yield curve and a deteriorating business climate indicator caused the decline. The leaders for Japan fell for the fourth straight month and six month growth was a negative 0.7% due to a tighter yield curve and fewer overtime hours worked.
The UK economic leaders slipped for the fifth consecutive month with six month growth solidly negative at -1.2% due to higher interest rates and weaker export prospects.The Canadian leaders have trended lower for a year and six month growth of -3.5% was the worst in two years. The yield curve is sharply inverted and housing starts are down.
The latest OECD Leading Indicator report can be found <a href="http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/60/47/34858128.pdf">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/OECDMEI/OECDMEI.HTM">OECD</a></th>
<th scope="col">March</th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Composite Leading Index&nbsp;</td>
<td>101.37</td>
<td>102.00</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
<td>101.99</td>
<td>97.51</td>
<td>96.33</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;6 Month Growth Rate</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Higher Tax Receipts Lowered U.S. Budget Deficit 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> May 12, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050512d.jpg" width="353">
April tax revenues surged and reduced the U.S. federal government&#39;s budget deficit during the first seven months of FY 2005 by 16.5% versus the first the seven months of FY 2004.
Net receipts for the first seven months of FY05 jumped 13.7% y/y. Individual tax receipts surged 16.1% versus FY04 as April personal taxes rose 43.3% against April of last year. Corporate tax receipts continued up strongly. Reflecting the improved job market, employment taxes grew 6.0% versus 1.3% growth last year.
Growth in federal outlays remained about stable at 7.3% versus the first seven months of 2005. Growth in Medicare outlays was strong at 9.1% and social security outlays grew 5.5%. Veterans benefits grew 15.2% and defense spending slowed to 7.0% growth. Interest expense grew 11.1% with higher rates.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E1/@E106/@E10602/@E10602.HTM">US Government Finance</a></th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">March</th>
<th scope="col">FY &#39;05 - YTD</th>
<th scope="col">FY2004</th>
<th scope="col">FY2003</th>
<th scope="col">FY2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Budget Balance</td>
<td>$57.7B</td>
<td>$-71.2B</td>
<td>$-236.9B</td>
<td>$-412.1B</td>
<td>$-377.6B</td>
<td>$-157.8B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Net Revenues</td>
<td>$277.6B</td>
<td>$148.7B</td>
<td>13.7%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>-3.8%</td>
<td>-6.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Net Outlays</td>
<td>$219.9B</td>
<td>$210.0B</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
<td>6.1%</td>
<td>7.4%</td>
<td>7.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
German Q1 Growth of 1% Boosts Euro-Zone Result to 0.5% 
by <a href="/comment/Stone.html">Carol Stone</a> May 12, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050512e.jpg" width="353">
The Euro-Zone had 0.5% GDP growth in Q1, according to the Eurostat &quot;Flash&quot; estimate released today. This produced a year-on-year result of 1.4%, moderately weaker than any quarter since Q4 2003. In these early &quot;Flash&quot; figures, no details are available by type of expenditure or industry, so there&#39;s no way to tell what factors contributed to the performance.
We do, however, know something about where the developments took place. Germany experienced a nice rebound, reaching 1.0% after two quarters of virtually no growth at all. Among other Euro-Zone countries, they join the UK with its 0.6% gain in boosting Europe&#39;s economy.
Elsewhere, results were not so attractive. Italy lost 0.5% and the Netherlands, 0.1%; Belgian GDP was unchanged. Both Italy and the Netherlands GDP also decreased year-on-year.
The Netherlands reported its expenditure breakdown; private consumption edged slightly lower, and investment contracted more sharply after a good gain in Q4. Net exports decreased. The only positive input came in inventories, which grew &#128;327 million compared to &#128;192 million in Q4.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050512f.jpg" width="353">
These data are mixed now by calculation methodology. As noted in the table below, &quot;real&quot; GDP for the overall Euro-Zone remains expressed in fixed-weights and 1995 prices; Italy&#39;s own data are also still on this basis. Germany, the UK and the Netherlands have all switched to annual chain-weighting, but Germany&#39;s reference year is 2000, the Netherlands, 1995 and the UK, 2001. Euro-Zone conventions call for all countries to switch to chain-linking by late 2006. There are also differences in the treatment of imputed charges for financial services, so-called &quot;FISIM&quot;. These are to be reconciled for the most part by the end of this year, with a few countries in 2006. Consumption and net exports will be affected. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/G10/G10.HTM">GDP % Changes</a></th>
<th scope="col">1 Qtr 2005</th>
<th scope="col">4 Qtr 2004</th>
<th scope="col">Year/ Year</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Euro-Zone (fixed 1995&#128;)</td>
<td>0.5</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>1.4</td>
<td>1.8</td>
<td>0.5</td>
<td>0.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Germany (chain 2000&#128;)</td>
<td>1.0</td>
<td>-0.1</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>1.6</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>0.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Italy (fixed 1995 &#128;)</td>
<td>-0.5</td>
<td>-0.4</td>
<td>-0.2</td>
<td>1.0</td>
<td>0.4</td>
<td>0.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Netherlands (chain 1995&#128;)</td>
<td>-0.1</td>
<td>-0.0</td>
<td>-0.3</td>
<td>1.4</td>
<td>-0.9</td>
<td>0.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050511g.jpg" width="353">
The surprising reduction in the US trade deficit for March begs for comparison with trade data reported today by other major countries. We&#39;ve highlighted here the role of energy in two oil-producing nations, the UK and Canada, along with the US. In the US, the petroleum deficit continued to widen, but modestly, while the non-petroleum deficit fell sharply in the month, as described by Tom Moeller in the Haver.com homepage commentary for today.
In the UK, the overall trade deficit decreased to &pound;4.4 billion in March from &pound;5.1 billion in February. The non-oil deficit also decreased, but just slightly, reflecting a 1.8% rise in non-oil exports after two successive monthly declines. The oil surplus in the UK is marginal, and in some months, oil even runs a small deficit. The non-oil deficit had widened fairly consistently from 1997 through the middle of last year and has since begun to diminish gradually, as import growth has tended to slow.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050511f.jpg" width="353">
Canada&#39;s trade balance was C$4.235 billion in March, up from C$4.155 billion in February. The energy surplus is drifting down a little, with the March value, C$3.4 billion, off from the 2004 average of C$3.7 billion. Exports of energy products have flattened in the last six month, but energy imports are trending upward, as seen in the second graph. The surplus in non-energy trade has fallen more distinctly with a modest slowing of those exports.
In both the US and the UK, non-energy imports have recently turned down. For the US, this is just a one-month development and could easily be reversed, but in the UK, March was the third month. Possibly the weight of energy on these economies is starting to restrain other purchasing from abroad. This is an important development to monitor.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Millions of Local Currency, Seasonally Adjusted</th>
<th scope="col">Mar 2005</th>
<th scope="col">Feb 2005</th>
<th scope="col">Mar 2004</th>
Monthly Average
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">2004</td>
<td>2003</td>
<td>2002</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">UK: Balance on Goods</td>
<td>-4,412</td>
<td>-5,037</td>
<td>-4,108</td>
<td>-4,829</td>
<td>-3,972</td>
<td>-3,890</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Balance on Oil</td>
<td>384</td>
<td>44</td>
<td>193</td>
<td>163</td>
<td>344</td>
<td>478</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Balance ex Oil</td>
<td>-4,796</td>
<td>-5,081</td>
<td>-4,519</td>
<td>-4,992</td>
<td>-4,316</td>
<td>-4,368</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Canada: Balance on Goods</td>
<td>4,235</td>
<td>4,155</td>
<td>5,584</td>
<td>5,602</td>
<td>4,848</td>
<td>4,768</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Balance on Energy</td>
<td>3,386</td>
<td>3,053</td>
<td>3,164</td>
<td>3,693</td>
<td>3,406</td>
<td>2,738</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Balance ex Energy</td>
<td>849</td>
<td>102</td>
<td>2,420</td>
<td>1,909</td>
<td>1,442</td>
<td>2,030</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">US: Balance on Goods</td>
<td>-57,171</td>
<td>-63,538</td>
<td>-50,026</td>
<td>-54,234</td>
<td>-44,362</td>
<td>-39,022</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Balance on Petroleum</td>
<td>-16,992</td>
<td>-16,343</td>
<td>-13,013</td>
<td>-13,653</td>
<td>-10,034</td>
<td>-7,764</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Balance ex Petroleum</td>
<td>-41,179</td>
<td>-47,195</td>
<td>-37,013</td>
<td>-40,582</td>
<td>-34,329</td>
<td>-31,258</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The surprising reduction in the US trade deficit for March begs for comparison with trade data reported today by other major countries. We've highlighted here the role of energy in two oil-producing nations, the UK and Canada, along [...]

Trade Deficit Eases in UK, Surplus Increases in Canada, but Energy May Be Starting to Restrain Demand for Non- [...]

Cost of transporting crude oil has soared to series high

Market-based inflation expectations have not yet reflected recent surge in oil prices

Global equity markets are fearing a major economic disruption from soaring oil prices

Is recent drop in sentiment signaling softer growth ahead?

With the Iran conflict, geopolitical risk has soared to alarming levels

Soaring AI-related investment in US underpinning strong contribution of business spending to overall growth

AI-related outperformance of IP in Advanced Asia ex Japan

Resilient US economy pushing up Blue Chip 2026 outlook

US and China big leaders in adoption of AI models

Robust US demand for advanced technology products

China's export growth rotating away from the US

More pronounced upward revisions in countries more exposed to AI investment

Stable job openings and hiring rates point to cautious hiring

Global freight costs are on the rise while supply chain pressures are contained

Accelerating positive economic surprises in the G10 are boosting the global economy

Considerably more monetary ease expected from US and UK as Japan tightens

Tighter US immigration enforcement adversely impacting labor force

Economic policy uncertainty, while still elevated, is declining

Gradual disinflation and easier monetary policies across advanced economies

Largest October layoffs since 2003, led by technology

Subdued global shipping costs not yet pointing to supply chain problems

PMIs show still-elevated but slowing US inflation

AI boosting US investment in data centers

US productivity growth has been significantly faster than in other major economies

Consumers' short-term US inflation expectations still elevated while longer-term expectations of financial markets are steady

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Michael J. Moran

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The report on payroll employment for March was impressive when viewed in isolation. Job growth was strong at 178,000, and the advance was broadly based. The construction and manufacturing sectors both posted solid gains, and the service-producing sector registered its firmest performance in more than a year. However, the gain might be viewed as a continuation of an unusual bout of random volatility. The March advance followed a notable drop in February (-133,000, revised down from -92,000), which followed an upside surprise in January (160,000, revised up from 126,000).

To be sure, statistical noise has been a factor in the past three months, but the results also represent an encouraging shift in job growth from that in the second half of last year, when employment rose only marginally in the third quarter and fell in the fourth. The net change in the past three months seems to signal that job growth is not drying up. The net advance so far this year is far from brisk, but it is clearly in the plus column and noticeably better than results in late 2025.

The unemployment rate also might be viewed as favorable, as it dipped 0.1 percentage point to 4.3%, although it was a “soft” decline. That is, employment as measured by the household survey declined 64,000, but the size of the labor force fell by a larger amount (off 396,000). Still, the jobless rate has climbed only modestly higher since the labor market started to ease in 2023, and it has inched lower in the past few months.

Unemployment has been contained despite modest hiring because layoffs also have been light. Initial claims for unemployment benefits have moved sideways in the past few years, indicating no change in the pace of layoffs. This pattern is confirmed by terminations data in the report on job openings and labor turnover (JOLTs) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

A supply-side shift in the labor market also has helped to contain the unemployment rate. Growth in the size of the labor force has slowed, and with fewer individuals seeking employment, those searching are more easily absorbed. Measures of the size of the labor force can be difficult to assess because there are breaks in the series every year. The Bureau of Labor Statistics adjusts the population controls used in its estimating procedure every January without revising past data to align with the new estimates. Thus, every January involves a discontinuity in the series, which will distort year-over-year changes.

However, Haver Analytics maintains a smoothed series originally developed by BLS to eliminate the breaks in the labor force data. As shown in the chart below, the smoothed series on the size of the labor force had been growing at a pace centered on 1.2% through 2022, but it has slowed irregularly since then (an observation for October is not available because of limited data collection during the government shutdown). The overall labor force is still growing, but the slower pace means fewer individuals looking for work, which most likely results in fewer being counted as unemployed.

The BLS collects data every month on both native-born and foreign-born individuals in the labor force. The breaks in these series are an issue, and Haver does not maintain smoothed series. However, the use of moving averages achieves enough smoothing to provide a sense of underlying changes. The native-born labor force has moved erratically in the past couple of years, but it has continued to advance. The foreign-born labor force, in contrast, seems to have peaked in mid-2025 and has generally declined since then.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- The jump of 178,000 in payroll employment in March easily exceeded the expected gain of 51,000.
- Following a net gain in January and February, the employment setting seems to have brightened slightly.
- A dip in the unemployment rate continued the recent pattern of marginal changes.

Payroll Employment: Another Surprise in March, The Third Consecutive

Robert Brusca

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French manufacturing industrial production was flat in February after a January rebound; output rose by 0.2% following a 0.8% decline in December.

The components of industrial production in February showed 2.6% increase in consumer durables, a 0.4% increase in consumer nondurables, flat output from capital goods, and a 0.7% month to month decline in intermediate output.

Sequentially, French output had been growing at a slow, steady pace of 0.8% at an annual rate over both 12 months and six months, but then slipped to a 6.1% contraction at an annual rate over three months. Consumer durable goods output on this span shows consistent increases, but there are no trends to clear acceleration or deceleration. Consumer nondurables trace an accelerating path of moderate means from -1.8% over 12 months, to -0.4% over six months, and then rising at a 5.5% annual rate over three months. Capital goods output is moving in the opposite direction, growing by 3.4% over 12 months, slowing to a 0.7% annual pace over six months, and then contracting at a 9.5% annual rate over three months. Intermediate goods output is falling at 0.8% pace over 12 months, but then it switches to an expansion rate of 0.8% over six months and 0.6% and over three months. There's nothing remarkable about these patterns, except there's some acceleration, some deceleration, and a lot of mulling about at low growth rates.

As a separate item, French auto production is slipping and decelerating, falling by 7.1% at an annual rate over 12 months, falling at a 7.9% pace over six months, and then plunging at a 19.3% annual rate over three months. On these same horizons, motor vehicle registrations fall by 14.7% over 12 months; the weakness pares back to an 11.2% annual rate decline over six months, and then it steps up to a 22.1% decline at an annual rate over three months. French demand for autos is not in good shape.

In the quarter to date—now two months into the first quarter—manufacturing industrial production is falling at a 0.8% annual rate. That pace is boosted by 9.4% annual rate gain in consumer durables output but restrained by just a 0.2% annual rate increase in consumer nondurable goods. Capital goods output is falling at a 1.9% annual rate, while intermediate goods output is falling at a 1% annual rate. Also in the quarter to date, automobile production is plunging at a 24.3% annual rate, while on the demand side, motor vehicle registrations are falling at a 15% annual rate.

French manufacturing data are somewhat confusing. The chart shows that the industrial production trend has been showing consistent increases over 12 months, but it has recently been pulling back relatively sharply. On the other hand, the manufacturing PMI for France has been consistently negative going back to mid-2022 and only in early 2026 has the manufacturing PMI been posting some values above the 50% mark, indicating that output was starting to actually expand. In March, the PMI reading for manufacturing has slipped back by the thinnest margin below the 50% mark.

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Of course, events in the Middle East make everything more speculative, with the war effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz and no certainty about how or when that is going to be sorted out. In the meantime, the potential threat of ongoing oil price pressures has put both the ECB and the Bank of England in a position to be more wary with policy, and they warned markets about the potential for rate hikes as soon as their next meetings are engaged. That also raises questions about the outlook for growth. But we continue to track and chronicle trends in the data. It's also quite clear that we could have events that will play out that could completely undermine these trends before they get a chance to run to conclusion. It's an important time to be wary and watch all developments—a lot is in play.

France

French IP Waffles

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined by 9,000 to 202,000 in the week ending March 28, from 211,000 in the week ending March 21, revised from 210,000. The four-week average declined 3,000 to 207,750 in the week ending March 28, from 210,750 the March 21 week, revised from 210,500. The Forecast Survey looked for 212,000 claims to have been filed.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries—also known as “continuing claims”—rose by 25,000 to 1.841 million in the week ending March 21, from 1.816 million in the week ending March 14. The four-week moving average declined to 1.839 million in the latest week from 1.846 million in the March 14 week. This is the lowest level for this average since September 28, 2024 when it was 1.834 million. The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2% in the week of March 21. It has remained at that level since the week of November 29, 2025.

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending March 14, the highest unemployment rates were in Rhode Island (2.83%), New Jersey (2.73%), Massachusetts (2.66%), Washington (2.39%), Minnesota (2.31%), California (2.17%), and New York (2.01%). The lowest rates were in Florida (0.31%), Louisiana (0.32%), Arkansas (0.36%), Alabama (0.38%), and North Carolina (0.40%). Rates in other notable states include Illinois (1.99%), Connecticut (1.82%), Pennsylvania (1.72%), and Texas (1.07%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.

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- New claims declined by 9,000 to 202,000.
- Continuing claims rose by 25,000 to 1.841 million.
- The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2%.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Edged Down in the Week of March 28

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The S&P manufacturing PMIs for March showed improvements in 44.4% of the 18 reporters. The median reading for the month was at 50.9, indicating that expanding output was the median reading through the period. The median change showed a small step back of 0.1 diffusion points month-to-month.

Sequentially, looking at average yearly activity compared to a year ago, six months compared to 12 months, and three months compared to six months, we see progress in train. For three months compared to six months, the proportion of reporters showing improvement is 72.2%. For these reporters, over six months compared to 12 months, there is a 61.1% improvement proportion, while for 12 months compared to 12 months ago, there is only a 27.8% improvement.

The median reading over three months on average is 50.7, while the median reading over six months is 50.0 and the median reading over 12 months is 49.4. These readings show a very slow but steady improvement in manufacturing over this horizon.

In addition, we calculate the queue percentile standings for each reporter—that is, the level of the current diffusion index compared to all of the observations back to January 2022, expressing the final number as the percentile standing for the current month in that queue. On that basis, the median percentile standing for this group of reporters is 76.5%. It tells us that the median standing is in the top 25 percentile of all the readings since January 2022 to date. That's a reasonably good result. For the euro area, the queue percentile standing is at the 89.8 percentile, while for Germany it's at its 91.8 percentile. For the Monetary Union and for Germany, the current numbers are some of the best we've seen during this period. However, that doesn't mean that they're necessarily stellar readings.

**PMI diffusion vs. PMI rank standings**
German diffusion in manufacturing is 52.2 in March; for the EMU it is 51.6. Germany posts the fourth-highest PMI rank standing and the fifth highest raw standing in March. The highest standing among all reporters is 52.6 from South Korea. This is a period in which no country was posting very strong manufacturing results. In fact, the United States, with a manufacturing PMI rank standing of 79.6, has a diffusion reading in March just a tick below Germany’s whose queue standing at 91.8 seems miles ahead of the U.S.—but it isn’t. Remember that the queue standings are about relative positioning.

Looking at the details, we see that below-median rank readings were logged by Mexico, Russia, India, Brazil, Indonesia, and Turkey. The Asian markets and developing economies seem to have a harder time working up to the standards achieved by other countries.

We also have averages by certain groups of countries. For example, the U.S., the U.K., the Monetary Union, Canada, and Japan—an expanded G10 groping—had an average reading of 51.3 in March, and for that group of countries, the improvements have been steady from 12 months to six months to three months. For the BRIC countries in March, the average standing was 50.4, and for that group there has been a very slight ongoing erosion. For the Asian group, on average, the March reading is 51.2, and there has been a progression to stronger readings from 49.9 over 12 months to 50.5 over six months and to 50.8 over three months.

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On balance, manufacturing was quite uneven in March; however, there's a progression of improvement that is still in place. But with rising oil prices, war in Iran, and lots of knock-on effects to supply trains, it's likely that these readings are going to fall on harder times in the months ahead—unless the Iran war can be wrapped up in very, very, short order. According to the Baltic Dry index, there hasn't been much reduction in global shipping of dry goods. That index excludes oil and other wet goods shipments that clearly have been impeded. However, giving it more time, we may see that the dry index begins to show some difficulties.

Global Manufacturing PMIs Stall—Will It Get Worse?

Andrew Cates

**Global shipping costs**
The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index has surged to multi-year highs, reflecting a sharp tightening in global oil shipping markets. The primary driver is the escalation in Middle East tensions, particularly the effective disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz—a critical artery for roughly a fifth of global oil trade. Heightened security risks, including missile and drone attacks on vessels and port infrastructure, have forced rerouting, increased insurance premia and reduced effective tanker supply. At the same time, longer voyage distances—especially for Gulf exports diverted around the Cape—are tying up capacity and amplifying rate pressures. The result is a classic squeeze: constrained supply of available ships meeting elevated demand for transport, pushing freight costs sharply higher.

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**Supply Chain Bottlenecks**
Flash PMI data point to a renewed build-up of supply chain pressures across the major economies. Supplier delivery times—where readings below 50 indicate slower deliveries—have deteriorated in both the US and UK, with the latter showing a particularly sharp decline. The euro area, while more stable, is also drifting in the same direction. This broad-based softening suggests that the disruptions visible in energy and shipping markets are now feeding into the real economy. Longer delivery times are typically an early indicator of tightening supply conditions, rising input costs and, ultimately, renewed pipeline inflation pressures. While not yet at the extremes seen during the pandemic, the direction of travel is clear: supply chains are becoming less efficient just as geopolitical risks intensify.

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**Policy Uncertainty Versus Market Volatility**
A striking divergence is emerging between policy uncertainty and financial market volatility. The US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index has risen sharply, reflecting the intensifying geopolitical backdrop, trade disruptions and an increasingly complex policy environment. By contrast, the VIX—while off its lows—remains relatively contained by historical standards. This gap suggests that financial markets may be underpricing the scale and persistence of current risks. Either uncertainty begins to recede, or market volatility has further to rise. For now, the message is clear: policymakers are operating in a far more uncertain world than markets appear to be discounting.

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**Oil Prices and Monetary Policy** 
The sharp rise in oil prices is once again feeding directly into short-term interest rate expectations, with a strong positive correlation evident between WTI and US 2-year Treasury yields. As energy prices surge, markets are reassessing the near-term inflation outlook and the likely policy response, pushing yields higher. This reflects a familiar dynamic: energy shocks tighten financial conditions not just directly, but via expectations of more restrictive monetary policy. That said, there are important caveats. Medium-term market-based inflation expectations remain relatively well contained, suggesting credibility in central banks’ ability to anchor inflation over time. Moreover, recent communication from Fed Chair Powell indicates that the Federal Reserve is in no immediate hurry to raise rates, pointing instead to a more cautious, data-dependent approach in the face of heightened uncertainty.

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**Loose Labour Markets**
Wage growth across the US, UK and euro area continues to moderate, pointing to a gradual loosening in labour market conditions. The sharp post-pandemic surge in wage pressures—particularly pronounced in the US—has clearly faded, with all three regions now on a downward trajectory. This matters in the current context: while the oil shock is pushing headline inflation higher and complicating the near-term outlook, easing wage dynamics reduce the risk of persistent second-round effects. In turn, this lessens the urgency for central banks to respond aggressively with tighter policy. The result is a more nuanced policy backdrop—one where energy-driven inflation pressures are rising, but underlying domestic cost pressures are moving in the opposite direction.

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**Headline Inflation in Advanced Economies**
Despite the recent energy shock, broader inflation dynamics across advanced economies remain relatively well behaved. The euro area HICP flash estimate rose from 1.9% in February to 2.5% in March, driven largely by higher energy prices. However, core inflation edged down to 2.3% from 2.4%, suggesting that pass-through into underlying price pressures remains limited for now. More generally, inflation across many advanced economies continues to hover close to central bank targets—a marked contrast to the peaks seen in 2022. While higher oil prices will almost certainly continue to lift headline inflation in the near term, and the risk is clearly tilted toward further upside, the broader picture for now remains one of relatively contained underlying pressures. This suggests the current shock is more likely to complicate the disinflation process—potentially slowing or interrupting it—rather than decisively reversing it, though the balance of risks has become less favourable.

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Amid tentative signs of de-escalation from the US administration over the past 48 hours—including suggestions that the conflict with Iran could conclude relatively quickly—financial markets have begun to retrace some of last week’s sharp repricing of Middle East risk. Oil prices have come off their highs, while equities and bonds have rallied as risk premia ease. That said, the earlier phase of the week saw a decisive adjustment: oil surged, front-end yields moved higher, and uncertainty rose as investors grappled with the implications of disrupted energy flows. Even now, the overall adjustment has been uneven—volatility has picked up, but not to levels typically associated with sustained geopolitical stress—raising questions about how fully markets are internalising both the risks and the rapidly shifting outlook. Our charts this week capture these cross-currents. Tanker rates have spiked as shipping routes are disrupted and capacity tightens (chart 1), while PMI delivery times point to early signs of supply chain strain feeding into the real economy (chart 2). At the same time, the divergence between elevated policy uncertainty and relatively contained market volatility suggests there could have been a degree of complacency (chart 3). The rise in oil prices is already feeding into higher short-term yields, though this is being tempered by cooling labour markets, anchored inflation expectations and more cautious central bank signalling (charts 4 and 5). Meanwhile, euro area flash CPI has picked up, but core inflation remains relatively benign, suggesting underlying price pressures are still contained for now (chart 6).

Economy in Brief

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U.S. Business Inventories Rose

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Higher Tax Receipts Lowered U.S. Budget Deficit

OECD Leaders Lost More Forward Momentum

Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Up For Third Week

U.S. Retail Sales Jump

U.S. Retail Sales Jump

Trade Deficit Eases in UK, Surplus Increases in Canada, but Energy May Be Starting to Restrain Demand for Non- [...]