Global| Jul 05 2005U.S. Factory Inventories Unchanged
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Factory inventories were unchanged in May following a downwardly revised slight decline in April. Three month growth in inventories fell to 2.7% (AR) from the peak rate of growth near 12% in March and that slowdown explains much of [...]
Factory inventories were unchanged in May following a downwardly revised slight decline in April. Three month growth in inventories fell to 2.7% (AR) from the peak rate of growth near 12% in March and that slowdown explains much of the slowdown in factory output growth.
Slower rates of inventory accumulation continue notable in the furniture industry where three month growth fell to 2.3% from versus the high of 28.4% and in the electrical equipment industry where growth in inventories fell to 6.0% with outright decumulation in May. The level of computer inventories has been declining this year with three month growth at -4.6% versus a peak of 13% last summer.
Factory shipments were roughly unchanged in May but three month growth improved to 9.2% due to rebounds in computers and heavy duty trucks.
Orders to the factory sector jumped 2.9% due to the unrevised 5.5% surge in durable goods orders.
Unfilled orders jumped 1.9% due to the 10.6% spike in unfilled orders for aircraft & parts. Less transportation altogether backlogs fell 0.1% (+7.6% y/y). The ratio of unfilled orders to shipments outside of transportation has moved sideways since early last year.
Trends in Hours, Balanced Growth and the Role of Technology in the Business Cycle from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available here.
| Factory Survey (NAICS) | May | April | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inventories | 0.0% | -0.0% | 7.7% | 7.5% | -1.3% | -1.8% |
| New Orders | 2.9% | 0.7% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 3.7% | -1.9% |
| Shipments | -0.0% | 0.7% | 7.2% | 10.5% | 2.6% | -2.0% |
| Unfilled Orders | 1.9% | -0.1% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 4.2% | -6.1% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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