Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050727b.jpg" width="353">
New orders for durable goods added 1.4% last month to the upwardly revised 6.4% jump in May. Consensus expectations had been for a 1.0% decline.
Strength in the factory sector was quite apparent in a 2.6% rise in durable goods orders outside of the transportation sector as well as a 0.9% gain in these orders in May, revised up from a 0.2% decline reported initially. Computer &amp; electronic equipment orders jumped 8.6% (19.0% y/y) after a 1.5% May rise, initially reported as a 1.2% decline. Orders for communication equipment surged 18.3% and were one third higher than last year.
Machinery orders jumped 3.7% (11.9% y/y) but with a 0.1% decline (+13.1% y/y) electrical equipment orders gave back a piece of the very much upwardly revised 3.4% spurt in May.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050727a.jpg" width="353">
Orders for aircraft &amp; parts fell just 22.1% (+49.8% y/y) following the more-than-doubling of orders in May while orders for motor vehicles &amp; parts slipped 0.1% (-2.3% y/y).
Non-defense capital goods orders slipped due to the decline in aircraft but less aircraft orders posted the strongest monthly gain since January. Nevertheless, shipments of nondefense capital goods less aircraft fell 0.4% (+10.1% y/y). The decline in shipments followed gains of 1.2% and 1.5% during the prior two months.
Durable inventories fell 0.3% (+7.1% y/y) for the second monthly decline in the last three while May&#39;s gain was revised lower to just 0.1%.
Unfilled orders jumped another 2.6% (9.8% y/y) but outside of the transportation sector backlogs rose a lesser 1.6% (9.2% y/y). The ratio of backlogs to shipments outside of transportation rose to the highest level in over a year.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED01/@ED0101/@ED0101.HTM">NAICS Classification</a></th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Durable Goods Orders</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>6.4%</td>
<td>11.8%</td>
<td>10.8%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>-1.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Excluding Transportation</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>10.6%</td>
<td>13.1%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>-4.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Nondefense Capital Goods</td>
<td>-1.9%</td>
<td>16.1%</td>
<td>25.7%</td>
<td>13.7%</td>
<td>5.6%</td>
<td>-7.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Excluding Aircraft</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
<td>13.0%</td>
<td>11.7%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>-7.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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New orders for durable goods added 1.4% last month to the upwardly revised 6.4% jump in May. Consensus expectations had been for a 1.0% decline. Strength in the factory sector was quite apparent in a 2.6% rise in durable goods orders [...]

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Firm, Revisions Positive

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050727b.jpg" width="353">
New orders for durable goods added 1.4% last month to the upwardly revised 6.4% jump in May. Consensus expectations had been for a 1.0% decline.
Strength in the factory sector was quite apparent in a 2.6% rise in durable goods orders outside of the transportation sector as well as a 0.9% gain in these orders in May, revised up from a 0.2% decline reported initially. Computer &amp; electronic equipment orders jumped 8.6% (19.0% y/y) after a 1.5% May rise, initially reported as a 1.2% decline. Orders for communication equipment surged 18.3% and were one third higher than last year.
Machinery orders jumped 3.7% (11.9% y/y) but with a 0.1% decline (+13.1% y/y) electrical equipment orders gave back a piece of the very much upwardly revised 3.4% spurt in May.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050727a.jpg" width="353">
Orders for aircraft &amp; parts fell just 22.1% (+49.8% y/y) following the more-than-doubling of orders in May while orders for motor vehicles &amp; parts slipped 0.1% (-2.3% y/y).
Non-defense capital goods orders slipped due to the decline in aircraft but less aircraft orders posted the strongest monthly gain since January. Nevertheless, shipments of nondefense capital goods less aircraft fell 0.4% (+10.1% y/y). The decline in shipments followed gains of 1.2% and 1.5% during the prior two months.
Durable inventories fell 0.3% (+7.1% y/y) for the second monthly decline in the last three while May&#39;s gain was revised lower to just 0.1%.
Unfilled orders jumped another 2.6% (9.8% y/y) but outside of the transportation sector backlogs rose a lesser 1.6% (9.2% y/y). The ratio of backlogs to shipments outside of transportation rose to the highest level in over a year.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED01/@ED0101/@ED0101.HTM">NAICS Classification</a></th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Durable Goods Orders</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>6.4%</td>
<td>11.8%</td>
<td>10.8%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>-1.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Excluding Transportation</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>10.6%</td>
<td>13.1%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>-4.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Nondefense Capital Goods</td>
<td>-1.9%</td>
<td>16.1%</td>
<td>25.7%</td>
<td>13.7%</td>
<td>5.6%</td>
<td>-7.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Excluding Aircraft</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
<td>13.0%</td>
<td>11.7%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>-7.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
New Home Sales Jumped Again 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> July 27, 2005


New single-family home sales jumped 4.0% in June to 1.374M on top of the upwardly revised 3.0% gain in May. The figure set a new record and sales during the last six months averaged 1.288M, up 7.7% from last year&#39;s first six months. Consensus estimates had been for sales in June of 1.30M.
Sales rose across the country but the notable 7.2% rise in the Northeast lifted sales 14.1% versus last year.
The median price of a new single family home slipped for the second consecutive month. The 5.5% decline to $214,800 (-0.4% y/y) followed upward revisions to prior months&#39; figures.
The figures from the Census Department reflect homes sold.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050727c.jpg" width="353"><img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050727d.jpg" width="353">

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E904/@E90401/@E90401.HTM">Homes Sales (000s, AR)</a></th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">New Single-Family</td>
<td>1,298</td>
<td>1,271</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>1,200</td>
<td>1,091</td>
<td>976</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Mortgage Applications Fell 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> July 27, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050727e.jpg" width="353">
Total mortgage applications fell 5.8% last week, the fourth decline in the last six weeks according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The decline lowered the average level in July 0.2% below June.
Last week&#39;s decline was led by a 11.4% drop in applications to refinance and they are down 21.8% from the peak in early June.
Purchase applications slipped only 0.7% w/w but it was the fifth decline in the last six weeks. Nevertheless, the average level in July remained 0.9% ahead of June. During the last ten years there has been a 49% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing single family home sales.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage crept up to 5.98% while the effective rate on a 15-year mortgage also rose to 5.63%.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site <a href="http://www.mbaa.org">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYW/@S5/@S5.HTM">MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">07/22/05</th>
<th scope="col">07/15/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Market Index</td>
<td>754.3</td>
<td>801.1</td>
<td>21.4%</td>
<td>735.1</td>
<td>1,067.9</td>
<td>799.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Purchase</td>
<td>485.1</td>
<td>488.7</td>
<td>9.1%</td>
<td>454.5</td>
<td>395.1</td>
<td>354.7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Refinancing</td>
<td>2,320.2</td>
<td>2,618.2</td>
<td>40.7%</td>
<td>2,366.8</td>
<td>4,981.8</td>
<td>3,388.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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Louise Curley

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050726d.jpg" width="353">
The decline of 11% in the euro to around 1.20 against the US dollar from 1.35 at the end of last year seems to have boosted business confidence in Germany and Italy. Business confidence in Italy and Germany rose for the second month in July to five month highs. In Italy, the ISAE (Institute of Studies and Economic Analyses) index of business confidence rose 1.3% from June to July, but was still 5.1% below July of last year. The IFO (Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung) index in Germany rose 1.8% from June to July and was only 0.5% below July, 2004. Business confidence in Italy is some 14% below 2000 while that of Germany is only 5% below 2000. The first chart shows the business confidence indexes for Germany and Italy.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050726e.jpg" width="353">
The 9% decline in the British pound from $1.92 at the end of last year to around $1.75 currently may also have accounted for the improvement in confidence shown in the CBI (Confederation of British Industries) Industrial Trends Survey. As in Italy, the improvement is from a low level. The balance of respondents reporting on the volume of their order books rose to a negative 20 from a negative 25 from June to July. Despite the decline of the euro, business confidence in the Netherlands continued to weaken. In July pessimists in the Netherlands out weighed the optimists by 3.7% a 2 point increase from the 1.7% in June. The second charts shows the percent balances for the U. K. and the Netherlands.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Jul&nbsp; 05</th>
<th scope="col">Jun 05</th>
<th scope="col">Jul 04</th>
<th scope="col">M/M%</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y%</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;2004&nbsp;&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;2003</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;2002</th>
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</thead>
<tbody>
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<td class="firstcol">Germany: IFO (2000=100)</td>
<td>95.0</td>
<td>93.3</td>
<td>95.5</td>
<td>1.82</td>
<td>-0.52</td>
<td>95.7</td>
<td>91.7</td>
<td>89.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Italy ISAE (2000=100)</td>
<td>86.0</td>
<td>84.9</td>
<td>90.6</td>
<td>1.30</td>
<td>-5.08</td>
<td>89.5</td>
<td>88.0</td>
<td>90.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
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<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Netherlands Producer Confidence (% balance)</td>
<td>-3.7</td>
<td>-1.7</td>
<td>0.7</td>
<td>-2.0</td>
<td>-4.4</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>-5.6</td>
<td>-1.5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey Order Book in volume (% balance)</td>
<td>-20</td>
<td>-25</td>
<td>-7</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>-13</td>
<td>-9</td>
<td>-29</td>
<td>-27</td>
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</tbody>
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The decline of 11% in the euro to around 1.20 against the US dollar from 1.35 at the end of last year seems to have boosted business confidence in Germany and Italy. Business confidence in Italy and Germany rose for the second month [...]

Currency Declines Boost Business Confidence in Italy, Germany and the U. K. but Fail to Do So in the Netherlands

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050726c.jpg" width="353">
Chain store sales increased 0.4% last week according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. This fourth consecutive gain lifted sales so far in July 0.5% higher than during June when sales fell 0.4% versus May.
During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC recovered a piece of the prior week&#39;s sharp decline with a 0.3% w/w (0.3% y/y) rise.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">07/23/05</th>
<th scope="col">07/16/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
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</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>458.5</td>
<td>456.9</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
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Chain store sales increased 0.4% last week according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. This fourth consecutive gain lifted sales so far in July 0.5% higher than during June when sales fell 0.4% versus [...]

Chain Store Sales Post Another Solid Gain

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050726b.jpg" width="353">
In the US, the average price for unleaded regular gasoline dipped to $2.29 per gallon last week from $2.32 or more during the prior two weeks. Early month strength lifted the July average so far 6.2% above June. In 2005 gasoline prices have averaged $2.10 per gallon of regular grade versus $1.85 last year.
The price of crude oil also has fallen of late with a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude yesterday at $56.01. Earlier in the month crude oil prices briefly touched $61.29/bbl. and have averaged $58.60 in July versus $41.44 during 2004.
Wholesale natural gas prices held steady at $7.77/mmbtu (33.0% y/y) last week. The average price during July is up 7.2% versus June.
For the latest Short Term Energy Outlook from the US Department of Energy click <a href="http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/daily/@D3/@D306/@D306.HTM">Energy Prices</a></th>
<th scope="col">07/25/05</th>
<th scope="col">12/31/04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">US Retail Gasoline, Regular ($/Gal.)</td>
<td>$2.29</td>
<td>$1.79</td>
<td>20.2%</td>
<td>$1.85</td>
<td>$1.56</td>
<td>$1.35</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Domestic Spot Market Price: West Texas Intermediate ($/Barrel)</td>
<td>$57.47</td>
<td>$41.78</td>
<td>40.7%</td>
<td>$41.78</td>
<td>$32.78</td>
<td>$31.23</td>
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In the US, the average price for unleaded regular gasoline dipped to $2.29 per gallon last week from $2.32 or more during the prior two weeks. Early month strength lifted the July average so far 6.2% above June. In 2005 gasoline [...]

Gasoline Prices Dipped Last Week, Up 6.2% in July

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050726a.jpg" width="353">
Consumer Confidence in July retraced the prior month&#39;s upwardly revised increase and fell 2.8% to 103.2 according to the Conference Board. Consensus expectations had been for stability at 106.2.
During the last twenty years there has been a 52% correlation between the level of consumer confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending. The correlation rose to 66% during the last ten years.
Consumers&#39; assessment of the present situation slipped for only the second month this year and the index remained up 11.4% y/y. Jobs were viewed as hard to get by 23.8% of survey participants, a slight m/m increase, but the 28.7% of participants who thought that business conditions were good was the highest in four years.
Consumer expectations fell 3.5% (-11.7% y/y) to the lowest level since April. Expectations for business conditions slipped the most though expectations that jobs would increase improved and expectations that income would rise only fell modestly.
The Conference Board&#146;s survey isconducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.

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<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF14/@EF1401/@EF1401.HTM">Conference Board</a></th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Consumer Confidence</td>
<td>103.2</td>
<td>106.2</td>
<td>-2.4%</td>
<td>96.1</td>
<td>79.8</td>
<td>96.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Consumer Confidence in July retraced the prior month's upwardly revised increase and fell 2.8% to 103.2 according to the Conference Board. Consensus expectations had been for stability at 106.2. During the last twenty years there has [...]

Consumer Confidence Retraced Earlier Gain

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050726a.jpg" width="353">
Consumer Confidence in July retraced the prior month&#39;s upwardly revised increase and fell 2.8% to 103.2 according to the Conference Board. Consensus expectations had been for stability at 106.2.
During the last twenty years there has been a 52% correlation between the level of consumer confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending. The correlation rose to 66% during the last ten years.
Consumers&#39; assessment of the present situation slipped for only the second month this year and the index remained up 11.4% y/y. Jobs were viewed as hard to get by 23.8% of survey participants, a slight m/m increase, but the 28.7% of participants who thought that business conditions were good was the highest in four years.
Consumer expectations fell 3.5% (-11.7% y/y) to the lowest level since April. Expectations for business conditions slipped the most though expectations that jobs would increase improved and expectations that income would rise only fell modestly.
The Conference Board&#146;s survey isconducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF14/@EF1401/@EF1401.HTM">Conference Board</a></th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Consumer Confidence</td>
<td>103.2</td>
<td>106.2</td>
<td>-2.4%</td>
<td>96.1</td>
<td>79.8</td>
<td>96.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Gasoline Prices Dipped Last Week, Up 6.2% in July 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> July 26, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050726b.jpg" width="353">
In the US, the average price for unleaded regular gasoline dipped to $2.29 per gallon last week from $2.32 or more during the prior two weeks. Early month strength lifted the July average so far 6.2% above June. In 2005 gasoline prices have averaged $2.10 per gallon of regular grade versus $1.85 last year.
The price of crude oil also has fallen of late with a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude yesterday at $56.01. Earlier in the month crude oil prices briefly touched $61.29/bbl. and have averaged $58.60 in July versus $41.44 during 2004.
Wholesale natural gas prices held steady at $7.77/mmbtu (33.0% y/y) last week. The average price during July is up 7.2% versus June.
For the latest Short Term Energy Outlook from the US Department of Energy click <a href="http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/daily/@D3/@D306/@D306.HTM">Energy Prices</a></th>
<th scope="col">07/25/05</th>
<th scope="col">12/31/04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">US Retail Gasoline, Regular ($/Gal.)</td>
<td>$2.29</td>
<td>$1.79</td>
<td>20.2%</td>
<td>$1.85</td>
<td>$1.56</td>
<td>$1.35</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Domestic Spot Market Price: West Texas Intermediate ($/Barrel)</td>
<td>$57.47</td>
<td>$41.78</td>
<td>40.7%</td>
<td>$41.78</td>
<td>$32.78</td>
<td>$31.23</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Chain Store Sales Post Another Solid Gain 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> July 26, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050726c.jpg" width="353">
Chain store sales increased 0.4% last week according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. This fourth consecutive gain lifted sales so far in July 0.5% higher than during June when sales fell 0.4% versus May.
During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department. Chain store sales correspond directly with roughly 14% of non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC recovered a piece of the prior week&#39;s sharp decline with a 0.3% w/w (0.3% y/y) rise.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">07/23/05</th>
<th scope="col">07/16/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>458.5</td>
<td>456.9</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Currency Declines Boost Business Confidence in Italy, Germany and the U. K. but Fail to Do So in the Netherlands 
by <a href="/comment/Curley.html">Louise Curley</a> July 26, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050726d.jpg" width="353">
The decline of 11% in the euro to around 1.20 against the US dollar from 1.35 at the end of last year seems to have boosted business confidence in Germany and Italy. Business confidence in Italy and Germany rose for the second month in July to five month highs. In Italy, the ISAE (Institute of Studies and Economic Analyses) index of business confidence rose 1.3% from June to July, but was still 5.1% below July of last year. The IFO (Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung) index in Germany rose 1.8% from June to July and was only 0.5% below July, 2004. Business confidence in Italy is some 14% below 2000 while that of Germany is only 5% below 2000. The first chart shows the business confidence indexes for Germany and Italy.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050726e.jpg" width="353">
The 9% decline in the British pound from $1.92 at the end of last year to around $1.75 currently may also have accounted for the improvement in confidence shown in the CBI (Confederation of British Industries) Industrial Trends Survey. As in Italy, the improvement is from a low level. The balance of respondents reporting on the volume of their order books rose to a negative 20 from a negative 25 from June to July. Despite the decline of the euro, business confidence in the Netherlands continued to weaken. In July pessimists in the Netherlands out weighed the optimists by 3.7% a 2 point increase from the 1.7% in June. The second charts shows the percent balances for the U. K. and the Netherlands.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Jul&nbsp; 05</th>
<th scope="col">Jun 05</th>
<th scope="col">Jul 04</th>
<th scope="col">M/M%</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y%</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;2004&nbsp;&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;2003</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Germany: IFO (2000=100)</td>
<td>95.0</td>
<td>93.3</td>
<td>95.5</td>
<td>1.82</td>
<td>-0.52</td>
<td>95.7</td>
<td>91.7</td>
<td>89.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Italy ISAE (2000=100)</td>
<td>86.0</td>
<td>84.9</td>
<td>90.6</td>
<td>1.30</td>
<td>-5.08</td>
<td>89.5</td>
<td>88.0</td>
<td>90.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Netherlands Producer Confidence (% balance)</td>
<td>-3.7</td>
<td>-1.7</td>
<td>0.7</td>
<td>-2.0</td>
<td>-4.4</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>-5.6</td>
<td>-1.5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey Order Book in volume (% balance)</td>
<td>-20</td>
<td>-25</td>
<td>-7</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>-13</td>
<td>-9</td>
<td>-29</td>
<td>-27</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050725c.jpg" width="353">
Mexico&#39;s trade deficit improved in June to -$270.6 million from -$579.7 million in May and was $526.6 million better than June, 2004. As a developing country, Mexico typically runs a trade deficit, which is offset by a capital inflow. The improvement in the balance was due to a 0.7% rise in exports and a 0.2% decline in imports.
Exports were up 0.7% from May to June and were 13.0% above the year ago figure. Petroleum exports were up 11.0% for the month and 45.6% for the year. Higher prices, no doubt, accounted for much of the rises in petroleum. Non petroleum exports declined 1.6% in June, but were almost 5% above the year ago figures. The year-to-year changes in non petroleum exports have tended to be much smaller than the swings in the year-to-year changes in petroleum exports as shown in the first chart.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050725b.jpg" width="353">
Imports decreased by 0.2% in June from May but were still 8.4% above June, 2004. The bulk of Mexico&#39;s imports consists of intermediate goods for further assembly and processing.These goods declined 4.1% from May to June, but were 3.3% above the June 2004. Over the past five years they have accounted for between 70% and 80% of total imports.The relative importance of capital and consumer goods has been changing in recent years with consumer goods rising in importance relative to capital goods, as shown in the second chart.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/EMERGELA/@E6/@E6.HTM">Mexico</a> Million US Dollars</th>
<th scope="col">Jun 05</th>
<th scope="col">May 05</th>
<th scope="col">Jun 04</th>
<th scope="col">M/M %</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y&nbsp;&nbsp; %</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;2004&nbsp;&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;2003</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Exports&nbsp;</td>
<td>17618.4</td>
<td>17503.1</td>
<td>15591.8</td>
<td>0.66</td>
<td>13.0</td>
<td>187475</td>
<td>164868</td>
<td>160899</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Petroleum</td>
<td>2661.1</td>
<td>2397.0</td>
<td>1828.2</td>
<td>11.02</td>
<td>45.56</td>
<td>23656</td>
<td>18623</td>
<td>14853</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Non Petroleum</td>
<td>15124.2</td>
<td>15368.1</td>
<td>14421.3</td>
<td>-1.59</td>
<td>4.89</td>
<td>164404</td>
<td>146262</td>
<td>146278</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Imports</td>
<td>17823.8</td>
<td>17851.2</td>
<td>16437.0</td>
<td>-0.15</td>
<td>8.42</td>
<td>195825</td>
<td>170576</td>
<td>168482</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Consumer Goods</td>
<td>2597.5</td>
<td>2366.2</td>
<td>2163.9</td>
<td>9.78</td>
<td>20.04</td>
<td>25402</td>
<td>21509</td>
<td>21178</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Capital Goods</td>
<td>2174.5</td>
<td>1995.0</td>
<td>1977.6</td>
<td>9.55</td>
<td>9.96</td>
<td>22597</td>
<td>20205</td>
<td>20992</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Intermediate Goods</td>
<td>13373.1</td>
<td>13940.1</td>
<td>12949.3</td>
<td>-4.07</td>
<td>3.27</td>
<td>148813</td>
<td>128831</td>
<td>126508</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>M/M chg</td>
<td>Y/Y chg</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Trade Balance</td>
<td>-270.6</td>
<td>-579.7</td>
<td>-797.2</td>
<td>109.1</td>
<td>526.6</td>
<td>-8724</td>
<td>-5710</td>
<td>-7538.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Mexico's trade deficit improved in June to -$270.6 million from -$579.7 million in May and was $526.6 million better than June, 2004. As a developing country, Mexico typically runs a trade deficit, which is offset by a capital inflow. [...]

A Smaller Trade Deficit for Mexico in June

Cost of transporting crude oil has soared to series high

Market-based inflation expectations have not yet reflected recent surge in oil prices

Global equity markets are fearing a major economic disruption from soaring oil prices

Is recent drop in sentiment signaling softer growth ahead?

With the Iran conflict, geopolitical risk has soared to alarming levels

Soaring AI-related investment in US underpinning strong contribution of business spending to overall growth

AI-related outperformance of IP in Advanced Asia ex Japan

Resilient US economy pushing up Blue Chip 2026 outlook

US and China big leaders in adoption of AI models

Robust US demand for advanced technology products

China's export growth rotating away from the US

More pronounced upward revisions in countries more exposed to AI investment

Stable job openings and hiring rates point to cautious hiring

Global freight costs are on the rise while supply chain pressures are contained

Accelerating positive economic surprises in the G10 are boosting the global economy

Considerably more monetary ease expected from US and UK as Japan tightens

Tighter US immigration enforcement adversely impacting labor force

Economic policy uncertainty, while still elevated, is declining

Gradual disinflation and easier monetary policies across advanced economies

Largest October layoffs since 2003, led by technology

Subdued global shipping costs not yet pointing to supply chain problems

PMIs show still-elevated but slowing US inflation

AI boosting US investment in data centers

US productivity growth has been significantly faster than in other major economies

Consumers' short-term US inflation expectations still elevated while longer-term expectations of financial markets are steady

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The U.S. ISM Services PMI decreased to 54.0 in March following a 2.3-point rise to 56.1 in February (the highest reading since July 2022), according to today’s report by the Institute for Supply Management, indicating expansion in the services sector for the 21st consecutive month but at a slower pace. The March index, while above 50.8 in March 2025 and a low of 49.4 in June 2024, remained below a high of 55.5 in October 2024 and a record-high 67.5 in November 2021. The 12-month average was 52.3, pointing to continued growth in the U.S. services sector. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected 54.9 for March.

Haver Analytics constructs a composite index combining the services index and the manufacturing reading. This index fell to 53.8 in March after a 2.0-point increase to 55.7 in February, signaling expansion for the 10th straight month, albeit at a slower rate. The latest reading was above 50.6 in March 2025 and a low of 49.3 in June 2024, while remaining below a record-high 66.7 in November 2021. These series date back to July 1997.

In the latest services survey, the business activity index declined to 53.9 in March after rising to 59.9 in February, indicating continued expansion in business activity for 21 consecutive months, though at the slowest pace since September. The index was above a low of 50.0 in June 2024 but below a record-high 70.9 in November 2021. In March, 22.8% of respondents (NSA) reported higher activity while 14.6% reported an activity decline. The new orders index rose to 60.6 in March after increasing to 58.6 in February, reflecting expansion in new orders for the 10th straight month and the highest level since February 2023. The index was above its recent low of 47.2 in May 2025 but below a high of 61.0 in February 2023 and a record-high 69.2 in October 2021. In March, 32.0% of respondents (NSA) reported higher new orders while a lessened 12.6% reported declines. Meanwhile, the supplier deliveries index (NSA) increased to 56.2 in March from 53.9 in February, indicating slower supplier delivery performance for the 16th straight month after one month in faster territory in November 2024.

On the labor front, the employment index fell to 45.2 in March after rising to 51.8 in February, showing employment activity in the services sector contracted for the first time since November and at the lowest level since December 2023. The latest reading was above a low of 43.5 in December 2023 but below a high of 54.1 in June 2023 and a high of 58.9 in April 2021. A reduced 10.7% of respondents (NSA) indicated higher employment in March while an increased 18.4% reported declines.

On the inflation front, the prices index jumped to 70.7 in March from 63.0 in February, indicating prices paid by services organizations for materials and services had risen (i.e., above 50) since June 2017 and at the fastest pace since October 2022. The index was above a low of 53.9 in March 2024 and a low of 55.1 in June 2023 but significantly below a peak of 83.7 in March 2022. An increased 45.7% of respondents (NSA) reported higher prices in March while only 1.2% reported price declines.

Additionally, the new export orders index dropped to 50.7 in March from 57.2 in February, showing new export orders expanded for the third time in four months but at a slower rate. The imports index rose to 55.2 in March from 51.8 in February, registering the third expansion in four months and the highest level since January 2024. The inventories index declined to 54.8 in March from 56.4 in February, indicating inventories expanded for the fourth time in five months but at a slower pace. The inventory sentiment index slipped to 54.3 in March from 55.3 in February, showing continued expansion since May 2023. The backlog of orders index fell to 53.6 in March from 55.9 in February, marking the second successive month of expansion following 11 straight months of contraction. These series are not seasonally adjusted and not included in the ISM Services PMI total.

The ISM Services PMI is a composite index consisting of four equally weighted diffusion indexes: Business Activity, New Orders, Employment, and Supplier Deliveries. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector; below 50 suggests contraction. Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM index that is inversed; a reading above 50 indicates slower deliveries. The ISM figures are available in Haver's **USECON** database, with additional detail in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations figure from Action Economics is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

260406P15.jpg

260406Q15.jpg

- ISM Services PMI at 54.0 in Mar., down 2.1 pts. from Feb.; below forecasts but above the 12-month avg. of 52.3.
- Business Activity (53.9, 21st straight month of expansion); New Orders (60.6, 10th consecutive month of expansion and fastest since Feb. ’23); Employment (45.2, first contraction since Nov.); Supplier Deliveries (56.2 vs. 53.9).
- Prices Index (70.7) indicates prices rising since June ’17, the fastest pace since Oct. ’22.

U.S. ISM Services PMI Slips in March, Still Indicating Expansion for the 21st Straight Month

Tian Yong Woon

In this week’s Letter, we examine the first-round price impacts of the surge in oil prices stemming from the ongoing Middle East conflict in Asia. Despite recent rhetoric and reports suggesting a potentially swift resolution, the conflict continues to unfold, with a ceasefire hanging in the balance, and with some measures of shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz still reduced to a trickle. At the same time, crude oil prices have been whipsawing amid shifting market perceptions about the persistence of the current supply shock (chart 1). The initial effects of higher oil prices are already showing up in hard data, particularly in energy- and fuel-related inflation across Indonesia, South Korea, and Vietnam (chart 2). In response, several governments have rolled out sizeable subsidy programmes to cushion rising energy costs, though these measures come with significant fiscal strain.

We also assess recent consumer inflation expectations in South Korea and Taiwan, which show early signs of edging higher (chart 3), although there is as yet no clear evidence of a meaningful unanchoring. To add further nuance, our latest Blue Chip survey suggests that most panellists expect only a limited and temporary pass-through from higher energy prices to core inflation, though a non-trivial minority anticipate a more persistent effect (chart 4). On the policy front, respondents broadly expect central banks to delay easing while avoiding outright tightening, with outcomes likely to diverge across regions (chart 5). In the near term, upcoming policy decisions in India, New Zealand, and South Korea—alongside other key data releases—will provide a useful test of these expectations (chart 6).

**The Middle East conflict**
The Middle East conflict continues to rage, with IMF-tracked shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz still reduced to a trickle. Meanwhile, crude oil prices remain volatile, gyrating alongside shifting perceptions over how soon normal oil flows might resume. In reality, there is still little sign of a substantive resolution, and no agreement to fully reopen the strait appears imminent, suggesting that oil flows are likely to remain constrained at low levels in the near term. That said, some investors are closely monitoring developments following reports of discussions around a potential 45-day ceasefire, which could pave the way toward a more lasting resolution. Until then, and absent any meaningful supply relief, crude oil prices—and by extension, energy-related inflation—are likely to face continued upward pressure, particularly for oil-dependent, importing economies.

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**Initial price impacts**
The initial inflation concerns among policymakers and investors stemming from the surge in oil prices are now beginning to show up in the data, as illustrated in chart 2. The latest March readings—capturing the period after the onset of the Middle East conflict—already point to a sharp acceleration in energy-related prices on a year-ago basis. Indonesia’s energy CPI basket has risen by around 9%, while diesel prices in South Korea have jumped 17%. Vietnam’s retail gasoline prices have seen an even more pronounced increase, at roughly 25.6%. Given the scale of these price surges, and their direct impact on everyday essentials—particularly fuel for daily commutes and broader economic activity—governments across Asia have begun rolling out sizeable subsidy programmes. These measures, often implemented at significant fiscal cost, aim to cushion the burden on households and firms. For instance, South Korea’s finance ministry proposed a supplementary budget of around $17.3 billion in late March to support low-income households, youth, and businesses amid higher oil prices, with approval expected by April 10. Meanwhile, Indonesia has allocated approximately $22.4 billion toward energy subsidies and support for selected energy and utilities firms to help keep prices affordable.

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**Consumer inflation expectations**
What policymakers are likely to focus on—beyond the immediate price impacts—is how the recent surge in oil prices feeds into inflation expectations. If left unanchored, these expectations could pose a far greater challenge than the supply-driven price shock itself, including reduced monetary policy effectiveness in reining in inflation and the risk of a self-fulfilling inflation cycle—though it is worth noting that such dynamics are not yet close to materialising. So far, there are some early, albeit inconclusive, signs that near-term consumer inflation expectations are beginning to drift higher in certain economies. As shown in chart 3, one-year-ahead inflation expectations edged up to 2.7% in March, while in Taiwan, consumer sentiment regarding domestic price trends over the next six months has turned notably more pessimistic relative to overall confidence.

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**The latest Blue Chip survey**
Turning to investor perspectives on how higher energy prices may feed into inflation, our special questions in the latest Blue Chip Financial Forecasts (BCFF) survey offer some useful nuance. As shown in chart 4, around two-thirds of panellists expect only a limited and temporary pass-through from higher oil prices to core inflation. That said, a non-trivial minority (31%) anticipate a more moderate and persistent pass-through. This is notable given the focus on core inflation, and underscores how energy prices can generate second-round effects even in typically non-energy components, reflecting the pervasive role of energy in everyday economic activity—from manufacturing to the upkeep of a wide range of goods and services.

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Delving deeper, we also asked panellists about their views on the prospective path of central bank policy should energy-driven inflation prove persistent. As shown in chart 5, responses broadly coalesce around two themes: central banks are likely to delay easing rather than tighten, and policy responses will vary meaningfully across regions. The former is already playing out to some extent in recent central bank decisions across Asia, with several explicitly citing the ongoing Middle East conflict as a reason to remain vigilant on inflation and refrain from easing policy prematurely. As for the latter, there are already signs of divergence in how different central banks are approaching the situation.

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**The week ahead**
Looking to the week ahead, there will be ample opportunities to assess whether investor expectations for central bank policy moves play out across Asia, with several rate decisions due—most notably in India, New Zealand, and South Korea. Also on the docket are China’s March CPI print and a range of Japan-related releases. Policymakers are likely to remain focused on balancing inflation control with supporting growth and maintaining currency stability. For now, and absent offsetting domestic factors, expectations for further near-term easing have been tempered by rising inflation risks. In China, recent CPI readings point to a modest pickup, while producer price deflation has begun to ease after a prolonged period of weak or negative inflation.

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Asia

Economic Letter from Asia: First-Round Effects

Michael J. Moran

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The report on payroll employment for March was impressive when viewed in isolation. Job growth was strong at 178,000, and the advance was broadly based. The construction and manufacturing sectors both posted solid gains, and the service-producing sector registered its firmest performance in more than a year. However, the gain might be viewed as a continuation of an unusual bout of random volatility. The March advance followed a notable drop in February (-133,000, revised down from -92,000), which followed an upside surprise in January (160,000, revised up from 126,000).

To be sure, statistical noise has been a factor in the past three months, but the results also represent an encouraging shift in job growth from that in the second half of last year, when employment rose only marginally in the third quarter and fell in the fourth. The net change in the past three months seems to signal that job growth is not drying up. The net advance so far this year is far from brisk, but it is clearly in the plus column and noticeably better than results in late 2025.

The unemployment rate also might be viewed as favorable, as it dipped 0.1 percentage point to 4.3%, although it was a “soft” decline. That is, employment as measured by the household survey declined 64,000, but the size of the labor force fell by a larger amount (off 396,000). Still, the jobless rate has climbed only modestly higher since the labor market started to ease in 2023, and it has inched lower in the past few months.

Unemployment has been contained despite modest hiring because layoffs also have been light. Initial claims for unemployment benefits have moved sideways in the past few years, indicating no change in the pace of layoffs. This pattern is confirmed by terminations data in the report on job openings and labor turnover (JOLTs) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

A supply-side shift in the labor market also has helped to contain the unemployment rate. Growth in the size of the labor force has slowed, and with fewer individuals seeking employment, those searching are more easily absorbed. Measures of the size of the labor force can be difficult to assess because there are breaks in the series every year. The Bureau of Labor Statistics adjusts the population controls used in its estimating procedure every January without revising past data to align with the new estimates. Thus, every January involves a discontinuity in the series, which will distort year-over-year changes.

However, Haver Analytics maintains a smoothed series originally developed by BLS to eliminate the breaks in the labor force data. As shown in the chart below, the smoothed series on the size of the labor force had been growing at a pace centered on 1.2% through 2022, but it has slowed irregularly since then (an observation for October is not available because of limited data collection during the government shutdown). The overall labor force is still growing, but the slower pace means fewer individuals looking for work, which most likely results in fewer being counted as unemployed.

The BLS collects data every month on both native-born and foreign-born individuals in the labor force. The breaks in these series are an issue, and Haver does not maintain smoothed series. However, the use of moving averages achieves enough smoothing to provide a sense of underlying changes. The native-born labor force has moved erratically in the past couple of years, but it has continued to advance. The foreign-born labor force, in contrast, seems to have peaked in mid-2025 and has generally declined since then.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- The jump of 178,000 in payroll employment in March easily exceeded the expected gain of 51,000.
- Following a net gain in January and February, the employment setting seems to have brightened slightly.
- A dip in the unemployment rate continued the recent pattern of marginal changes.

Payroll Employment: Another Surprise in March, The Third Consecutive

Robert Brusca

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French manufacturing industrial production was flat in February after a January rebound; output rose by 0.2% following a 0.8% decline in December.

The components of industrial production in February showed 2.6% increase in consumer durables, a 0.4% increase in consumer nondurables, flat output from capital goods, and a 0.7% month to month decline in intermediate output.

Sequentially, French output had been growing at a slow, steady pace of 0.8% at an annual rate over both 12 months and six months, but then slipped to a 6.1% contraction at an annual rate over three months. Consumer durable goods output on this span shows consistent increases, but there are no trends to clear acceleration or deceleration. Consumer nondurables trace an accelerating path of moderate means from -1.8% over 12 months, to -0.4% over six months, and then rising at a 5.5% annual rate over three months. Capital goods output is moving in the opposite direction, growing by 3.4% over 12 months, slowing to a 0.7% annual pace over six months, and then contracting at a 9.5% annual rate over three months. Intermediate goods output is falling at 0.8% pace over 12 months, but then it switches to an expansion rate of 0.8% over six months and 0.6% and over three months. There's nothing remarkable about these patterns, except there's some acceleration, some deceleration, and a lot of mulling about at low growth rates.

As a separate item, French auto production is slipping and decelerating, falling by 7.1% at an annual rate over 12 months, falling at a 7.9% pace over six months, and then plunging at a 19.3% annual rate over three months. On these same horizons, motor vehicle registrations fall by 14.7% over 12 months; the weakness pares back to an 11.2% annual rate decline over six months, and then it steps up to a 22.1% decline at an annual rate over three months. French demand for autos is not in good shape.

In the quarter to date—now two months into the first quarter—manufacturing industrial production is falling at a 0.8% annual rate. That pace is boosted by 9.4% annual rate gain in consumer durables output but restrained by just a 0.2% annual rate increase in consumer nondurable goods. Capital goods output is falling at a 1.9% annual rate, while intermediate goods output is falling at a 1% annual rate. Also in the quarter to date, automobile production is plunging at a 24.3% annual rate, while on the demand side, motor vehicle registrations are falling at a 15% annual rate.

French manufacturing data are somewhat confusing. The chart shows that the industrial production trend has been showing consistent increases over 12 months, but it has recently been pulling back relatively sharply. On the other hand, the manufacturing PMI for France has been consistently negative going back to mid-2022 and only in early 2026 has the manufacturing PMI been posting some values above the 50% mark, indicating that output was starting to actually expand. In March, the PMI reading for manufacturing has slipped back by the thinnest margin below the 50% mark.

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Of course, events in the Middle East make everything more speculative, with the war effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz and no certainty about how or when that is going to be sorted out. In the meantime, the potential threat of ongoing oil price pressures has put both the ECB and the Bank of England in a position to be more wary with policy, and they warned markets about the potential for rate hikes as soon as their next meetings are engaged. That also raises questions about the outlook for growth. But we continue to track and chronicle trends in the data. It's also quite clear that we could have events that will play out that could completely undermine these trends before they get a chance to run to conclusion. It's an important time to be wary and watch all developments—a lot is in play.

France

French IP Waffles

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined by 9,000 to 202,000 in the week ending March 28, from 211,000 in the week ending March 21, revised from 210,000. The four-week average declined 3,000 to 207,750 in the week ending March 28, from 210,750 the March 21 week, revised from 210,500. The Forecast Survey looked for 212,000 claims to have been filed.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries—also known as “continuing claims”—rose by 25,000 to 1.841 million in the week ending March 21, from 1.816 million in the week ending March 14. The four-week moving average declined to 1.839 million in the latest week from 1.846 million in the March 14 week. This is the lowest level for this average since September 28, 2024 when it was 1.834 million. The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2% in the week of March 21. It has remained at that level since the week of November 29, 2025.

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending March 14, the highest unemployment rates were in Rhode Island (2.83%), New Jersey (2.73%), Massachusetts (2.66%), Washington (2.39%), Minnesota (2.31%), California (2.17%), and New York (2.01%). The lowest rates were in Florida (0.31%), Louisiana (0.32%), Arkansas (0.36%), Alabama (0.38%), and North Carolina (0.40%). Rates in other notable states include Illinois (1.99%), Connecticut (1.82%), Pennsylvania (1.72%), and Texas (1.07%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.

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- New claims declined by 9,000 to 202,000.
- Continuing claims rose by 25,000 to 1.841 million.
- The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2%.

Economy in Brief

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U.S. Durable Goods Orders Firm, Revisions Positive

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Firm, Revisions Positive

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