Global| Sep 16 2005U.S. Business Inventories Fell
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total business inventories fell in July for the second month. The decline lowered the three month change in inventories to -1.5% (AR) versus a 12.1% peak rate of accumulation through last August. The ratio of inventories-to-sales [...]
Total business inventories fell in July for the second month. The decline lowered the three month change in inventories to -1.5% (AR) versus a 12.1% peak rate of accumulation through last August. The ratio of inventories-to-sales dropped to a new record low of 1.26 as business sales rose 1.1% (8.2% y/y), goosed by a surge in auto sales.
Retail inventories plummeted 1.8% due to a 5.4% drop in auto inventories. Excluding autos, however, retail inventories fell only slightly (+5.9% y/y). Furniture inventories fell 0.2% (+7.9% y/y) and inventories of apparel were unchanged (5.9% y/y).
Factory sector inventories rose for the first month since March.
Wholesale inventories fell 0.1% pulling three month growth down to 2.8%, the lowest since 2003. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the y/y change in wholesale inventories and the change in imports of merchandise.
| Business Inventories | July | June | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | -0.5% | -0.0% | 4.2% | 7.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% |
| Retail | -1.8% | -0.5% | -0.4% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 5.9% |
| Retail excl. Autos | -0.0% | 0.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 2.0% | 2.3% |
| Wholesale | -0.1% | 0.4% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% |
| Manufacturing | 0.5% | 0.1% | 6.0% | 7.5% | -1.3% | -1.8% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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