Global| Sep 16 2005U.S. Consumer Sentiment Depressed
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The September Consumer Sentiment Index from the University of Michigan cratered 13.7% m/m to 76.9, the lowest level in over ten years, as consumer expectations were depressed 17.3% by Hurricane Katrina (and probably by higher gasoline [...]
The September Consumer Sentiment Index from the University of Michigan cratered 13.7% m/m to 76.9, the lowest level in over ten years, as consumer expectations were depressed 17.3% by Hurricane Katrina (and probably by higher gasoline prices).
The 12 month expected inflation rate surged to 5.7% from 3.7% in August and that helped drop expectations for growth in real family income to the lowest level since 1992. Moreover, unemployment was expected to rise but interest rates were expected to fall.
The current conditions index fell 9.7% m/m, roughly double the decline in August. Personal finances were viewed being at their worst level in over two years and current buying conditions also fell hard.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.
| University of Michigan | Sept | August | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 76.9 | 89.1 | -18.4% | 95.2 | 87.6 | 89.6 |
| Current Conditions | 97.7 | 108.2 | -5.8% | 105.6 | 97.2 | 97.5 |
| Consumer Expectations | 63.6 | 76.9 | -27.7% | 88.5 | 81.4 | 84.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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