Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060802d.jpg" width="353">
A 1.2% decline last week in the total number of mortgage applications extended the recent decline to three consecutive weeks. Applications for all of July fell 1.9% from June when applications fell 1.5% from May.
Lower purchase applications led last week&#39;s decline with 3.3% drop which pulled the July average 2.1% below June, the third consecutive down month.
During the last ten years there has been a 58% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing single family home sales.
Applications to refinance added 2.3% to the prior week&#39;s 0.6% recovery to limit the decline during all of July to 1.8% versus June. Refis fell 3.1% during June from the May average.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage fell nine basis points w/w to 6.82%. The peak for 30 year financing was 7.08% late in June. The rate on 15-year financing also fell to 6.53% and the peak rate was 6.75%. Interest rates on 15 and 30 year mortgages are closely correlated (&gt;90%) with the rate on 10 year Treasury securities.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 79% correlation between the level of applications for purchase and the effective interest rate on a 30-year mortgage.
In July, 35.4% of all loan applications were to refinance, down from 44.2% last July.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site <a href="http://www.mbaa.org">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYW/@S5/@S5.HTM">MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">07/28/06</th>
<th scope="col">07/21/06</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Market Index</td>
<td>527.6</td>
<td>533.8</td>
<td>-29.8%</td>
<td>708.6</td>
<td>735.1</td>
<td>1,067.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Purchase</td>
<td>376.2</td>
<td>389.0</td>
<td>-23.9%</td>
<td>470.9</td>
<td>454.5</td>
<td>395.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Refinancing</td>
<td>1,417.2</td>
<td>1,385.2</td>
<td>-37.0%</td>
<td>2,092.3</td>
<td>2,366.8</td>
<td>4,981.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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A 1.2% decline last week in the total number of mortgage applications extended the recent decline to three consecutive weeks. Applications for all of July fell 1.9% from June when applications fell 1.5% from May. Lower purchase [...]

Mortgage Applications Down Further

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060802b.jpg" width="353">
US light vehicle sales in July rose 5.8% m/m to 17.24M units, according to the Autodata Corporation. July sales were the highest since this past January and the figure beat Consensus expectations for sales of 16.6M units.
Despite the latest increase, sales fell 16.8% from July 2005 when the successful &quot;employee pricing&quot; plan was instituted for most car buyers.
Overall light truck sales rose 4.7% last month but a steep 28.7% decline versus July 2005 reflects both the success of last year&#39;s sales&#39; incentives and higher gasoline prices.
Domestic truck sales rose 4.3% but fell 32.8% y/y. During the first seven month of this year sales were down 12.2% from the first seven months of 2005. Sales of the relatively fuel efficient imported light trucks rose 7.1% m/m (6.8% y/y). Year to date sales of imported light trucks rose 9.0% from the first seven months of 2005.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060802c.jpg" width="353">
Auto sales rose 7.0% (1.9% y/y) in July. Domestic car sales turned in a 5.1% gain but still fell 5.6% from last year. Year to date sales were up 0.3% versus last year. Sales of imported autos, in contrast, surged 10.7% (20.0% y/y). Year to date imported car sales rose 9.9% from last year.
Imports garnered a 24.6% share of the US light vehicle market during July, a monthly record, versus 20.4% during all of last year.
Deficits, Debt and Trust Funds from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/net/20060801/cover.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED09/@ED0901/@ED0901.HTM">Light Vehicle Sales (SAAR, Mil. Units)</a></th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>17.24</td>
<td>16.30</td>
<td>-16.8%</td>
<td>16.92</td>
<td>16.87</td>
<td>16.63</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Autos</td>
<td>8.23</td>
<td>7.69</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>7.65</td>
<td>7.49</td>
<td>7.62</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Trucks</td>
<td>9.01</td>
<td>8.61</td>
<td>-28.7%</td>
<td>9.27</td>
<td>9.37</td>
<td>9.01</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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US light vehicle sales in July rose 5.8% m/m to 17.24M units, according to the Autodata Corporation. July sales were the highest since this past January and the figure beat Consensus expectations for sales of 16.6M units. Despite the [...]

U.S. Vehicle Sales Up, But Struggle Against Incentives Last Year

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060802a.jpg" width="353">
The Nat&#39;l Employment Report, published by the payroll processor ADP, indicated that private nonfarm payrolls in July rose just 99,000.
For June the increase in ADP&#39;s measure of private nonfarm payrolls of 368,000 was accompanied by a 90,000 rise in private nonfarm payrolls as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The July figure from BLS will be published this Friday.
ADP has compiled the estimate from its database of individual companies&#39; payroll information. Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, the St. Louis economic consulting firm, developed the methodology for transforming the raw data into an economic indicator.
According to ADP and Macro Advisers, the correlation between the monthly percentage change in the ADP estimate and that in the BLS data is 0.90.
The ADP National Employment Report data is maintained in Haver&#39;s USECON database; historical data go back to December 2000. The figures in this report cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in the public sector, which grew an average of 11,333 per month over the last year.
The full ADP National Employment Report can be found <a href="http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/PDF/FINAL_July_NER_Report.pdf">here</a>, and the ADP methodology is explained <a href="http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/PDF/ADPNERMethodology.pdf">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EB/@EB25/@EB25.HTM">LAXEPA@USECON</a></th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (Chg.)</td>
<td>99,000</td>
<td>368,000</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The Nat'l Employment Report, published by the payroll processor ADP, indicated that private nonfarm payrolls in July rose just 99,000. For June the increase in ADP's measure of private nonfarm payrolls of 368,000 was accompanied by a [...]

ADP Nat'l Employment Report: Slower Job Growth in July

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060802a.jpg" width="353">
The Nat&#39;l Employment Report, published by the payroll processor ADP, indicated that private nonfarm payrolls in July rose just 99,000.
For June the increase in ADP&#39;s measure of private nonfarm payrolls of 368,000 was accompanied by a 90,000 rise in private nonfarm payrolls as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The July figure from BLS will be published this Friday.
ADP has compiled the estimate from its database of individual companies&#39; payroll information. Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, the St. Louis economic consulting firm, developed the methodology for transforming the raw data into an economic indicator.
According to ADP and Macro Advisers, the correlation between the monthly percentage change in the ADP estimate and that in the BLS data is 0.90.
The ADP National Employment Report data is maintained in Haver&#39;s USECON database; historical data go back to December 2000. The figures in this report cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in the public sector, which grew an average of 11,333 per month over the last year.
The full ADP National Employment Report can be found <a href="http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/PDF/FINAL_July_NER_Report.pdf">here</a>, and the ADP methodology is explained <a href="http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/PDF/ADPNERMethodology.pdf">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EB/@EB25/@EB25.HTM">LAXEPA@USECON</a></th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (Chg.)</td>
<td>99,000</td>
<td>368,000</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Vehicle Sales Up, But Struggle Against Incentives Last Year 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> August 2, 2006


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060802b.jpg" width="353">
US light vehicle sales in July rose 5.8% m/m to 17.24M units, according to the Autodata Corporation. July sales were the highest since this past January and the figure beat Consensus expectations for sales of 16.6M units.
Despite the latest increase, sales fell 16.8% from July 2005 when the successful &quot;employee pricing&quot; plan was instituted for most car buyers.
Overall light truck sales rose 4.7% last month but a steep 28.7% decline versus July 2005 reflects both the success of last year&#39;s sales&#39; incentives and higher gasoline prices.
Domestic truck sales rose 4.3% but fell 32.8% y/y. During the first seven month of this year sales were down 12.2% from the first seven months of 2005. Sales of the relatively fuel efficient imported light trucks rose 7.1% m/m (6.8% y/y). Year to date sales of imported light trucks rose 9.0% from the first seven months of 2005.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060802c.jpg" width="353">
Auto sales rose 7.0% (1.9% y/y) in July. Domestic car sales turned in a 5.1% gain but still fell 5.6% from last year. Year to date sales were up 0.3% versus last year. Sales of imported autos, in contrast, surged 10.7% (20.0% y/y). Year to date imported car sales rose 9.9% from last year.
Imports garnered a 24.6% share of the US light vehicle market during July, a monthly record, versus 20.4% during all of last year.
Deficits, Debt and Trust Funds from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/net/20060801/cover.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED09/@ED0901/@ED0901.HTM">Light Vehicle Sales (SAAR, Mil. Units)</a></th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>17.24</td>
<td>16.30</td>
<td>-16.8%</td>
<td>16.92</td>
<td>16.87</td>
<td>16.63</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Autos</td>
<td>8.23</td>
<td>7.69</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>7.65</td>
<td>7.49</td>
<td>7.62</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Trucks</td>
<td>9.01</td>
<td>8.61</td>
<td>-28.7%</td>
<td>9.27</td>
<td>9.37</td>
<td>9.01</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Mortgage Applications Down Further 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> August 2, 2006


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060802d.jpg" width="353">
A 1.2% decline last week in the total number of mortgage applications extended the recent decline to three consecutive weeks. Applications for all of July fell 1.9% from June when applications fell 1.5% from May.
Lower purchase applications led last week&#39;s decline with 3.3% drop which pulled the July average 2.1% below June, the third consecutive down month.
During the last ten years there has been a 58% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing single family home sales.
Applications to refinance added 2.3% to the prior week&#39;s 0.6% recovery to limit the decline during all of July to 1.8% versus June. Refis fell 3.1% during June from the May average.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage fell nine basis points w/w to 6.82%. The peak for 30 year financing was 7.08% late in June. The rate on 15-year financing also fell to 6.53% and the peak rate was 6.75%. Interest rates on 15 and 30 year mortgages are closely correlated (&gt;90%) with the rate on 10 year Treasury securities.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 79% correlation between the level of applications for purchase and the effective interest rate on a 30-year mortgage.
In July, 35.4% of all loan applications were to refinance, down from 44.2% last July.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site <a href="http://www.mbaa.org">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYW/@S5/@S5.HTM">MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">07/28/06</th>
<th scope="col">07/21/06</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Market Index</td>
<td>527.6</td>
<td>533.8</td>
<td>-29.8%</td>
<td>708.6</td>
<td>735.1</td>
<td>1,067.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Purchase</td>
<td>376.2</td>
<td>389.0</td>
<td>-23.9%</td>
<td>470.9</td>
<td>454.5</td>
<td>395.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Refinancing</td>
<td>1,417.2</td>
<td>1,385.2</td>
<td>-37.0%</td>
<td>2,092.3</td>
<td>2,366.8</td>
<td>4,981.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Local Employment Data Show Gulf Port Cities Still Struggle 9 Months After Katrina, But Houston Gains 
by <a href="/comment/Stone.html">Carol Stone</a> August 2, 2006


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060802e.jpg" width="353">
As the first potential hurricane of 2006, Chris, forms near the Dominican Republic and Cuba, we are reminded, of course, of the drastic impact of last year&#39;s Katrina. This morning, the BLS released the household survey data for June for metropolitan areas, and we can get an assessment of economic conditions now in some of the affected cities. These data are carried in Haver&#39;s EMPLR database. Series for labor force, employment, unemployment and the unemployment rate are included for hundreds of metro areas, micro areas, and the other standard combinations of urban communities in all 50 States, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico.
In New Orleans, the center of Katrina&#39;s damage, the number of people employed is up about 25,000 from its October low, but is clearly still well off the pre-storm numbers. Unemployment, while not at the extreme of October, remains higher than 2003 and 2004, suggesting that even with a reduced labor force, job opportunities are not relatively as plentiful.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060802f.jpg" width="353">
Gulfport-Biloxi is also continuing to face strained economic conditions. Unemployment remains far higher than before and also higher than in New Orleans, even though the unemployment rates in the two areas were about the same in the 2003-04 period.
Other cities in the region are doing better. Baton Rouge, the State Capital, saw its unemployment rate shoot up immediately after Katrina, as workers from New Orleans poured into the area. As seen in the table, the rate rose even as the number of employed persons expanded by slightly more than 10,000. Since then, however, employment has fallen back to its pre-storm level and so has unemployment, as the transient workers apparently returned home or moved on.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060802g.jpg" width="353">
Cities in Texas also received people from the storm-damaged region. Beaumont-Port Arthur, very near the Louisiana state line, experienced a spike in its labor force and its unemployment rate, but this dissipated. Presently, employment is running about the same as in 2004 and 2005, and the unemployment rate is actually somewhat lower than previously.
Finally, in Houston, the labor force expanded by 25,400 in September and for the most part, these people stayed. Employment rose even more and unemployment fell. Only in June did some of this labor market vigor fade a bit, with a somewhat larger-than-normal June rise in the unemployment rate. So Houston generally was able to absorb its new workers and find jobs for them, and the labor force in Houston is nearly 2.5% larger than a year ago, compared with 1.5% in the nation as a whole.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/EMPLR/@H01/@H0102/@H0102.HTM">Employment, NSA, Thous</a></th>
<th scope="col">June 2006</th>
<th scope="col">May 2006</th>
<th scope="col">Oct 2005</th>
<th scope="col">June 2005</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">New Orleans, LA*</td>
<td>412.0</td>
<td>404.5</td>
<td>388.5</td>
<td>610.9</td>
<td>n.m.</td>
<td>587.6</td>
<td>578.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate (%)</td>
<td>7.2</td>
<td>6.4</td>
<td>17.1</td>
<td>6.1</td>
<td>n.m.</td>
<td>5.1</td>
<td>5.5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Gulfport-Biloxi, MS</td>
<td>95.4</td>
<td>94.1</td>
<td>97.9</td>
<td>118.4</td>
<td>n.m.</td>
<td>115.5</td>
<td>114.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate (%)</td>
<td>12.5</td>
<td>12.9</td>
<td>21.2</td>
<td>6.9</td>
<td>n.m.</td>
<td>5.2</td>
<td>5.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Baton Rouge, LA</td>
<td>341.0</td>
<td>339.3</td>
<td>348.3</td>
<td>338.2</td>
<td>n.m.</td>
<td>329.7</td>
<td>319.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate (%)</td>
<td>5.3</td>
<td>4.4</td>
<td>9.7</td>
<td>6.7</td>
<td>n.m.</td>
<td>5.9</td>
<td>6.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX</td>
<td>164.0</td>
<td>164.1</td>
<td>163.2</td>
<td>166.4</td>
<td>164.9</td>
<td>163.6</td>
<td>165.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate (%)</td>
<td>7.1</td>
<td>6.3</td>
<td>11.2</td>
<td>7.6</td>
<td>7.7</td>
<td>8.3</td>
<td>8.8</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Houston, TX*</td>
<td>2544.0</td>
<td>2532.2</td>
<td>2521.0</td>
<td>2480.3</td>
<td>2484.4</td>
<td>2419.1</td>
<td>2379.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate (%)</td>
<td>5.6</td>
<td>5.0</td>
<td>5.4</td>
<td>5.7</td>
<td>5.5</td>
<td>6.2</td>
<td>6.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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Louise Curley

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060801i.jpg" width="353">
Incoming data on economic conditions in the Euro Zone suggests that the second quarter growth is likely to exceed the 2.53% annual rate of GDP growth in the first quarter. If so, it will be the first time since 2001 when the annual rate of growth in the Euro Zone exceeded that of the United States. The seasonally adjusted annual rates of GDP growth for the Euro Zone and the U. S are shown in the first chart.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060801j.jpg" width="353">
The unemployment rate for the Euro Zone fell to 7.8% in June, the lowest value since August, 2001. The average for the second quarter was 7.9% compared with 8.1 % in the first quarter. Most of the other current economic indicators, such as production, new orders, shipments and sales, have been positive, but are available only through May. However, the Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) based in London produces an indicator, EuroCOINTM, of the monthly growth in real GDP that is used in their analysis of the business cycle. This indicator tracks the quarterly changes in real GDP reasonably well as can be seen in the second chart.According to CEPR, if the value of the indicator is above the long term average of the monthly growth rate--0.59% (the monthly average growth of the sample period, 1988-2003)--this suggests that the economy is growing at a rate faster than the long term norm. In June, the indicator was .633 and for the second quarter it averaged .620 suggesting that second quarter growth is above average. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
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<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/EUROSTAT/@U2/@U219/@U219.HTM">Euro Zone</a></th>
<th scope="col">Jun&nbsp; 06</th>
<th scope="col">May 06</th>
<th scope="col">Jun 05</th>
<th scope="col">M/M</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate %&nbsp;</td>
<td>7.8</td>
<td>7.9</td>
<td>8.6</td>
<td>-0.1</td>
<td>-0.8</td>
<td>8.6</td>
<td>8.9</td>
<td>8.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">EuroCOIN&nbsp;</td>
<td>.633</td>
<td>.617</td>
<td>.365</td>
<td>.016</td>
<td>.268</td>
<td>.442</td>
<td>.497</td>
<td>.527</td>
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Incoming data on economic conditions in the Euro Zone suggests that the second quarter growth is likely to exceed the 2.53% annual rate of GDP growth in the first quarter. If so, it will be the first time since 2001 when the annual [...]

Euro Zone 2nd Quarter GDP Annual Rate of Growth May Exceed the 2.46% of the U. S.

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060801h.jpg" width="353">
Weekly chain store sales rose another 0.9% last week after a 0.2% increase the prior period, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey.
The moderate increases continued to leave sales below earlier levels. As a result sales this month are running 0.6% below the June average.
Both the June &amp; May average sales levels fell 0.4% from the prior month. During the last ten years there has been a 47% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS fell another 0.1% (-1.4% y/y) in the latest week.
Retail gasoline prices during the last week of July ticked up slightly and the average retail price for regular unleaded gas settled at $3.00 per gallon (31.1% y/y) and prices in July averaged $2.98.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">07/29/06</th>
<th scope="col">07/22/06</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>471.2</td>
<td>467.1</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>4.7%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


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Weekly chain store sales rose another 0.9% last week after a 0.2% increase the prior period, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. The moderate increases continued to leave sales below earlier [...]

Weekly Chain Store Sales Up Moderately

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060801c.jpg" width="353">
Challenger, Grey &amp; Christmas reported that announced job cuts in July more than reversed the prior month&#39;s gain and dropped 44.7% to 37,178, the lowest level since June of 2000.
During the last ten years there has been an 83% (inverse) correlation between the three month moving average level of announced job cuts and the three month change payroll employment.
Layoffs fell sharply m/m in the automotive (-57.2% y/y), computer (-85.5% y/y), financial (-85.1% y/y), health care (65.8% y/y), industrial goods (-35.8% y/y) and pharmaceutical (-86.0% y/y) industries.
Job cut announcements differ from layoffs. Many are achieved through attrition, early retirement or just never occur.
A m/m increase in the level of layoffs was reported in the electronics (-91.5% y/y), chemical (-66.1% y/y) and the entertainment &amp; leisure (+24.4% y/y) industries.
Challenger also reported that announced hiring plans more than doubled m/m (27.1% y/y).

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S3/@S301/@S301.HTM">Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas</a></th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Announced Job Cuts</td>
<td>37,178</td>
<td>67,176</td>
<td>-63.9%</td>
<td>1,072,054</td>
<td>1,039,935</td>
<td>1,236,426</td>
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Challenger, Grey & Christmas reported that announced job cuts in July more than reversed the prior month's gain and dropped 44.7% to 37,178, the lowest level since June of 2000. During the last ten years there has been an 83% [...]

Challenger Layoffs Lowest Since 2000

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<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060801d.jpg" width="353">
The value of construction put in place rose 0.3% in June following a slight May decline that was upwardly revised. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.1% increase.
Another strong gain in nonresidential building, up 2.7%, bolstered the June total. Office construction jumped 1.9% (12.6% y/y) while multi-retail building surged another 3.1% (52.5% y/y) and a 10.5% spike during May was double the initial estimate. Building by the factory sector surged 8.1% (34.7% y/y).
Residential building activity fell for the third straight month. The 1.0% decline was led by 2.1% drop in new single family building (-1.2% y/y). That&#39;s the first y/y decline since late 2000. Spending on multi-family projects ticked up 0.1% (14.7% y/y) while the value of spending on improvements jumped 1.6% (-1.6% y/y) but the prior month&#39;s surge was revised away.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060801e.jpg" width="353">
During the last twenty years there has been an 84% correlation between the q/q change in the value of residential building and its contribution to growth in real GDP. During April and May the value of residential building activity was down 1.3% from the 1Q average.
Public construction spending increased 0.8%. Construction activity on highways &amp; streets, nearly one third of the value of public construction spending, rose just 0.1% (19.7% y/y) but the prior month&#39;s 0.1% gain reported initially was revised to a 4.3% surge.
These more detailed categories represent the Census Bureau&#146;s reclassification of construction activity into end-use groups. Finer detail is available for many of the categories; for instance, commercial construction is shown for Automotive sales and parking facilities, drugstores, building supply stores, and both commercial warehouses and mini-storage facilities. Note that start dates vary for some seasonally adjusted line items in 2000 and 2002 and that constant-dollar data are no longer computed.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E907/@E90701/@E90701.HTM">Construction Put-in-place</a></th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>-0.0%</td>
<td>6.8%</td>
<td>10.7%</td>
<td>11.5%</td>
<td>5.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Private</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
<td>12.0%</td>
<td>14.3%</td>
<td>6.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Residential</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>-1.4%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>13.9%</td>
<td>18.6%</td>
<td>12.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Nonresidential</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>21.6%</td>
<td>7.4%</td>
<td>5.3%</td>
<td>-4.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Public</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>9.7%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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The value of construction put in place rose 0.3% in June following a slight May decline that was upwardly revised. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.1% increase. Another strong gain in nonresidential building, up 2.7%, bolstered [...]

U.S. Construction Spending Supported By Nonresidential

Inflationary impact of surge in oil prices larger in Europe than in the US

Futures market thinks the price of oil will recede significantly over the next six months

Recent pickup in US defense orders could help support overall growth ahead

Cost of transporting crude oil has soared to series high

Market-based inflation expectations have not yet reflected recent surge in oil prices

Global equity markets are fearing a major economic disruption from soaring oil prices

Is recent drop in sentiment signaling softer growth ahead?

With the Iran conflict, geopolitical risk has soared to alarming levels

Soaring AI-related investment in US underpinning strong contribution of business spending to overall growth

AI-related outperformance of IP in Advanced Asia ex Japan

Resilient US economy pushing up Blue Chip 2026 outlook

US and China big leaders in adoption of AI models

Robust US demand for advanced technology products

China's export growth rotating away from the US

More pronounced upward revisions in countries more exposed to AI investment

Stable job openings and hiring rates point to cautious hiring

Global freight costs are on the rise while supply chain pressures are contained

Accelerating positive economic surprises in the G10 are boosting the global economy

Considerably more monetary ease expected from US and UK as Japan tightens

Tighter US immigration enforcement adversely impacting labor force

Economic policy uncertainty, while still elevated, is declining

Gradual disinflation and easier monetary policies across advanced economies

Largest October layoffs since 2003, led by technology

Subdued global shipping costs not yet pointing to supply chain problems

PMIs show still-elevated but slowing US inflation

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Andrew Cates

**Energy shock lifts inflation, trims growth**
The IMF’s latest WEO revisions for 2026 broadly reflect the classic stagflationary impact of the recent Middle East energy shock, with growth downgraded and inflation revised higher across most major economies. Higher energy prices act as a tax on real incomes while simultaneously pushing up costs. That said, the picture is not uniform: a number of economies—notably the US, China and India—have seen growth upgrades, reflecting stronger-than-expected momentum so far in 2026. By contrast, the UK stands out at the stagflationary extreme, combining one of the largest growth downgrades with a relatively strong inflation uplift—consistent with its weaker underlying momentum, greater energy sensitivity and more persistent domestic inflation dynamics. More broadly, while the global revisions remain modest—pointing to resilience in activity—the message is that disinflation is no longer a smooth glide back to target but increasingly contingent on energy prices and geopolitical developments.

260423Z1.jpg

**Markets largely shrug off rising economic pessimism**
Notwithstanding a more downbeat assessment from economists—including the IMF’s stagflationary tilt to the outlook—there has been remarkably little follow-through into financial markets. Measures of systemic stress in both the US and UK remain low by historical standards, suggesting that investors are, for now, largely looking through the Middle East conflict. There are several possible explanations: corporate profits remain resilient, the AI-driven investment narrative continues to dominate market thinking, and markets may be assuming that any energy shock will be temporary and contained. In effect, investors appear to be pricing a benign baseline in which geopolitical risks do not materially disrupt growth, inflation expectations or policy. The UK is a partial exception, with a somewhat more visible uptick in stress, which aligns more closely with the IMF’s more challenging growth-inflation trade-off and the economy’s greater sensitivity to energy prices.

260423Z2.jpg

**Volatility falls despite deteriorating growth surprises**
Market optimism is also increasingly at odds with the incoming data flow. Typically, equity volatility declines when growth surprises are positive and inflation surprises are benign. However, the recent pattern has broken that relationship. Growth surprises across the G10 have turned increasingly negative (our series is inverted in the chart below), yet volatility has continued to fall. In other words, markets are becoming less sensitive to weakening macro data, continuing to price a benign outlook even as the data deteriorate. This divergence reinforces the broader theme: investors are, for now, looking through both geopolitical risks and softer economic momentum, placing greater weight on resilience in earnings, the AI-driven narrative and the assumption that policy will remain supportive.

260423Z3.jpg

**Inflation Nowcasts Have Jumped**
Incoming data suggest that headline inflation has moved higher in recent weeks, broadly in line with expectations given the rise in energy prices following the Middle East shock. Nowcasts for CPI across the major economies show a clear rebound in March and April from the lows seen at the start of 2026, with the move occurring in a relatively synchronised fashion. This reinforces the view that the recent pickup in inflation is being driven primarily by a common external factor—energy.

260423Z4.jpg

**Energy shock not yet feeding into underlying inflation**
However, the detailed breakdown of March inflation outcomes suggests that this remains, for now, a largely headline-driven phenomenon. While headline CPI prints were firm across most economies, core inflation—stripping out energy and food—was more subdued and in some cases weaker. This indicates that there has been very limited pass-through from higher energy prices into broader goods and services inflation at this early stage. In other words, the shock is still being absorbed rather than propagated. That distinction is critical for policy and markets alike: as long as second-round effects remain contained, central banks may be able to look through the near-term rise in inflation, even as headline rates move higher.

260423Z5.jpg

**Inflation Expectations Rising as Growth Sentiment Falters**
It remains early days, and much will hinge on how inflation expectations evolve from here. The latest ZEW survey for Germany already conveys the hallmarks of a classic stagflationary shock, with macroeconomic expectations weakening even as inflation expectations have ratcheted sharply higher. This shift is important: while the recent rise in headline inflation has so far shown limited pass-through into core, a sustained increase in expectations would raise the risk of second-round effects and make the inflation process more persistent. In that sense, the ZEW data highlight the key fault line in the current environment—whether the energy-driven shock remains contained, or begins to embed itself more broadly through expectations and pricing behaviour.

260423Z6.jpg

Financial markets have remained notably calm in recent weeks despite rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, a more downbeat macroeconomic narrative and elevated uncertainty. Measures of financial stress and volatility remain low, and equity markets continue to look through both the conflict and softer data. That resilience sits alongside a more nuanced macro backdrop. The IMF’s latest WEO revisions point to a classic stagflationary energy shock—growth downgraded and inflation revised higher—although the global impact remains modest and uneven, with some economies still benefiting from stronger momentum (chart 1). At the same time, market pricing appears increasingly detached from the data flow, with volatility declining even as growth surprises have turned more negative relative to inflation (charts 2 and 3). Incoming inflation data reinforce the idea of a largely headline-driven shock, with nowcasts rising in line with higher energy prices but only limited pass-through into core inflation so far (charts 4 and 5). However, it remains early days. Survey evidence, such as the latest ZEW release, suggests that inflation expectations may already be responding in a more concerning way, with a marked rise alongside weakening growth sentiment (chart 6). Taken together, the key question for markets is whether this remains a contained, energy-driven shock that can be looked through—or whether it begins to embed more persistently via expectations, forcing a reassessment of the currently benign outlook.

<iframe data-testid="embed-iframe" style="border-radius:12px" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/44A12ktUaoJGHZG7pEVcul?utm_source=generator" width="100%" height="152" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Charts of the Week: Risks Build, Markets Shrug

Sandy Batten

260423F8.jpg

260423G8.jpg

The National Activity Index published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (CFNAI) slipped to -0.20 in March from an upwardly revised +0.03 in February (previously (-0.11). This is the lowest monthly reading since last November. Smoothing out the monthly volatility, the index's three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) declined to -0.03 in March from an upwardly revised +0.03 in February (previously -0.01).

This index is expressed in standard deviation units from zero (with a value of zero defined as trend real GDP growth). Research at the FRB Chicago indicates that readings on the 3-month average of -0.70 or below are consistent with the economy being in a recession. Therefore, even though the March reading on the 3-month average was negative, it indicates that the US economy is still growing, just slightly slower than trend, and is well away from recessionary conditions. The 3-month average would be much deeper in negative territory if the economy was at risk of contracting.

The National Activity Index is a composite of 85 economic indicators, grouped into four major categories: production and income; employment, unemployment, and hours worked; personal consumption and housing; sales, orders, and inventories. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from February, and three categories made negative contributions in March. Production-related indicators contributed –0.20 to the CFNAI in March, down from +0.13 in February. The sales, orders, and inventories category's contribution to the CFNAI was –0.01 in March, down from +0.05 in February. Employment-related indicators contributed +0.02 to the CFNAI in March, up from –0.15 in February. The personal consumption and housing category's contribution to the CFNAI was –0.01 in March, down from a neutral value in February.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which measures the breadth of the change in the component series and is also a three-month moving average, increased to –0.04 in March from –0.08 in February. This is the highest reading since February 2025. A reading of zero indicates that all of the indicators are growing at their long-term average. If all of the underlying indicators in a given month are below their long-run averages, the diffusion index will equal -1. If all of the indicators are above their long-run averages, it will equal +1. Thirty-four of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in March, while 51 made negative contributions. Forty-three indicators improved from February to March, while 40 indicators deteriorated and two were unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 16 made negative contributions.

These figures are available in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

- The monthly reading fell to -0.20 in March from an upwardly revised +0.03 in February.
- The three-month average slipped from +0.03 to -0.03.
- Despite the slip in March, the index points to near-trend economic growth and is well above recession territory.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Slipped in March

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

260423A1.jpg

260423B1.jpg

Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose by 6,000 to 214,000 in the week ending April 18, from 208,000 in the week ending April 11, revised from 207,000. The four-week average rose 750 to 210,750 in the week ending April 18, from 210,000 the April 11 week, revised from 209,750. The Action Economics/Haver Analytics Survey looked for 210,000 claims to have been filed.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries—also known as “continuing claims”—rose by 12,000 to 1.821 million in the week ending April 11, from 1.809 million in the week ending April 4. The four-week moving average rose to 1.812 million in the latest week from 1.811 million in the March 28 week. The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2% in the week of April 11. It has remained at that level since the week of November 29, 2025.

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending April 4, the highest unemployment rates were in New Jersey (2.51%), Massachusetts (2.37%), Rhode Island (2.31%), Washington (2.25%), Minnesota (2.11%), and California (2.02%). The lowest rates were in Florida (0.30%), Louisiana (0.31%), Arkansas (0.35%), Alabama (0.36%), North Carolina (0.39%), Tennessee (0.46%), South Dakota (0.47%), Kansas and Virginia (both 0.49%). Rates in other notable states include New York (1.92%), Illinois (1.82%), Pennsylvania (1.52%), and Texas (1.04%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.

260423C1.jpg

260423D1.jpg

- New claims rose by 6,000 to 214,000.
- Continuing claims rose by 12,000 to 1.821 million.
- The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2%.


U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Rose in the Week of April 18

Robert Brusca

260423E.jpg

**Manufacturing looks strong while service sectors weaken**
S&P's April flash PMI readings show some very mixed results. For the United States, India, Australia, and the United Kingdom, there is a strengthening in the readings month-to-month for services, manufacturing, and the composite.

For Japan, France, and the European Monetary Union as a whole, there is improvement in the manufacturing sector on the month but a weaker services reading and a weaker composite overall.

Germany is the only responding area in the table showing weakness all around—in all three sectors—a weaker composite, a weaker manufacturing sector, and a weaker services sector in April. For Germany, this follows a weaker composite and service sector in March as well.

Most reporters—France, the United Kingdom, Japan, Australia, and India—had weaker readings for all three metrics in March: the composite, services, and manufacturing. The March exceptions were the United States, Germany, and the European Monetary Union; in each case, the exception was that the manufacturing sector improved month-to-month, while the composite and services both weakened.

This has been a period of weakening—in March and April—since the war in Iran began. The 48 separate sector readings produced 30 readings that were weaker month-to-month in March and April. Among the 16 composite readings, 12 reported weaker conditions month-to-month. In March, the immediate aftermath of the outbreak of war brought instantaneous step backs across the PMI readings, while April, responding to at least a military success in the area, has shown a significant bounce back that is now more common than further weakness.

The sequential data over three months, six months, and 12 months are based only on completed data; therefore, they're up to date through March. On that basis, we have triple sector weakness in the U.S., India, and Australia, with only Japan and the United Kingdom showing triple-sector improvement over three months. However, if we look at six months compared to 12 months, we have triple sector strength in the Monetary Union, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Japan, and Australia. India and the U.S. each show only one stronger sector over that comparison—services in India’s case and manufacturing in the U.S. case.

**Ranking Peculiarity**
The ranking data take the current flash data and compare them to the history of observations back to January 2022. What is quite surprising is that, on that timeline, the manufacturing sectors of all the countries in the table—except for Australia and India—show manufacturing standings in their respective 80th to 90th percentiles. Meanwhile, services standings are typically in the 30th percentile or lower.

**Odd Impact of War**
If the war in Iran has an impact on something, we would expect that to fall on the goods trade sector. We would expect this to have an impact on manufacturing although it's the opposite thing that's happening. Manufacturing is showing a revival, while services sectors are showing weaker performance across these countries generally. India is an interesting case, with manufacturing only in its 32nd percentile; however, India’s raw diffusion reading for manufacturing is the strongest raw diffusion reading in the table. What India's ranking is telling us is that India had been extremely strong over the period since 2022, and now compared to that past standard, it's relatively weaker. However, it's still strong in absolute terms, showing a great deal of strength based on its pure diffusion value, just not in comparison to historic performance.

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**Next?**
At this point, it's not clear to me at least what these PMI data are telling us since the strength in manufacturing is a curiosity as is the weakness in the services sector. You see these two phenomena displayed in the chart above, in the case of the European Monetary Union’s flash readings as well.

**War breeds negative effects**
It's not a surprise that war would take some toll on consumer confidence or that it would be reflected in the services sector. However, seeing the kind of weakness being portrayed now in services against the strength in manufacturing is simply a bit hard to rationalize and understand. So, I think we're going to have to keep an eye on these readings as well as other readings in the months ahead to try to discern how global events, the war, conditions in the Strait of Hormuz, inflation currency shifts, and central bank policy are playing out across these various countries. None of what is happening is obvious to me. Japan clearly continues to benefit from a weak yen as its manufacturing sector is flying high, at its best reading since January 2022.

S&P PMIs Show Mixed Fortunes

Winnie Tapasanun

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Mortgage applications rose 7.9% w/w (29.9% y/y) in the week ending April 17 following a 1.8% rebound in the week ending April 10, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. The latest reading was the second successive w/w gain and the largest since the February 27 week, lifting the index to 303.3, its highest level since the March 20 week. Applications for loans to purchase a house jumped 10.1% (14.5% y/y) in the April 17 week, the biggest w/w increase since the January 9 week, after a 1.0% decline in the previous week. Applications for loan refinancing rose 5.8% (51.9% y/y) in the April 17 week following a 5.1% rebound in the April 10 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan fell 7bps to 6.53% in the week ending April 17 from 6.60% in the week ending April 10; it was above a low of 6.29% in the week of September 20, 2024 but below a peak of 8.12% in the week of October 20, 2023. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages dropped 12bps to 5.92% in the April 17 week from 6.04% in the previous week; it was up from a low of 5.60% in the week of September 20, 2024 but down from a high of 7.44% in the week of October 27, 2023. The rate on 30-year jumbo loans declined 5bps to 6.56% in the April 17 week from 6.61% in the prior week; it was above its most recent low of 6.25% in the February 27 week but below a high of 7.99% in the week of October 27, 2023. These three rates hit their lowest levels since the March 13 week. Meanwhile, the rate on a 5-year ARM edged up to 5.81% in the April 17 week, the first w/w increase in four weeks, from 5.80% in the previous week (the lowest since the March 6 week); it was above its most recent low of 5.38% in the February 20 week but below a high of 7.31% in the week of October 27, 2023.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan fell to 44.2% of total applications in the week ending April 17—the sixth w/w fall in seven weeks and the lowest level since the week of August 1, 2025—after rising to 45.5% in the week ending April 10; those numbers remained below a peak of 61.9% in the January 16 week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity declined to a three-week-low 8.0% in the April 17 week from 8.4% in the prior week; it was below a peak of 12.9% in the week of September 12, 2025 but above a low of 4.7% in the week of January 3, 2025.

The average size of a mortgage loan, up for the third consecutive week, rose 1.2% w/w (3.4% y/y) to $399,900 in the April 17 week, the highest level since the March 13 week, after a 1.3% increase to $395,000 in the April 10 week. The average size of a purchase loan eased 0.1% (+3.6% y/y) to $455,600 in the April 17 week, the fourth w/w decline in five weeks, following a 1.8% rebound to $456,100 in the prior week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage climbed 2.4% (10.7% y/y) to $329,500 in the April 17 week after a 1.5% rise to $321,800 in the previous week, marking the third successive w/w increase and the highest level since the March 20 week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Purchase applications +10.1% w/w, biggest increase since the Jan. 9 week; refinancing loan applications +5.8% w/w, second consecutive rise.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed loans down 7bps to 6.53%, a five-week low.
- Average loan size up for the third straight week, highest level since the March 13 week.

Economy in Brief

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