Global| Sep 12 2006Record U.S. Foreign Trade Deficit Swelled By Higher Oil Prices
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Higher oil prices helped boost the U.S. foreign trade deficit to a new record in July of $68.0B from an unrevised $64.8 B in June. Consensus expectations had been for a somewhat shallower deficit of $65.5B. Imports of goods & services [...]
Higher oil prices helped boost the U.S. foreign trade deficit to a new record in July of $68.0B from an unrevised $64.8 B in June. Consensus expectations had been for a somewhat shallower deficit of $65.5B.
Imports of goods & services jumped 1.0% m/m driven higher by a 1.4% surge in goods imports. That gain was goosed by a 4.8% (36.5% y/y) spike in the value of petroleum imports as the price of imported crude oil rose 4.5% to $64.84 per bbl. (32.1% y/y). However, the quantity of crude petroleum imports fell 5.9% (+3.0% y/y).
Imports of nonpetroleum products rose 0.6% (11.1% y/y) as imports of capital goods increased 2.3% (11.8% y/y) but nonauto consumer goods imports rose just 0.5% (10.4% y/y). Automotive imports also fell 5.3% (+6.0% y/y) while imports of foods, feeds & beverages jumped 3.9% (11.1% y/y).
Total exports fell 1.1% after a 2.3% surge in June and a like gain in May. A 3.7% decline in capital goods exports (+11.1% y/y) pulled the July total lower along with a 0.5% (+16.8% y/y) slip in foods, feeds & beverages. Nearly half of the July decline in capital goods exports was due to lower civilian aircraft (-0.8% y/y). Exports of nonauto consumer goods posted another strong gain and rose 1.5% (14.3% y/y).
Services exports in July rose 0.1% (8.3% y/y) as private travel services exports rose just 0.5% (5.5% y/y). Imports of services declined 0.6% (+10.5% y/y).
The U.S. trade deficit in goods with China improved slightly to $19.6B in July ($201.5B in 2005).
| Foreign Trade | July | June | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Trade Deficit | $68.0B | $64.8B | $58.1B (7/05) |
$716.7B | $611.3B | $494.9B |
| Exports - Goods & Services | -1.1% | 2.3% | 12.6% | 10.7% | 13.4% | 4.2% |
| Imports - Goods & Services | 1.0% | 1.1% | 12.2% | 13.0% | 16.7% | 8.3% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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