Global| Sep 12 2006Chain Store Sales Slip Despite Lower Gasoline Prices
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey reported that chain store sales slipped 0.3% last week and reversed the prior period's gain. Despite the backpedal, the average level of sales in September is up 0.5% [...]
The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey reported that chain store sales slipped 0.3% last week and reversed the prior period's gain.
Despite the backpedal, the average level of sales in September is up 0.5% from the August average. August sales rose 0.4% from July. During the last ten years there has been a 47% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS jumped 0.6% (-1.5% y/y) in the latest week after moving sideways during most of August.
The retail price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline fell another eleven cents last week to an average $2.62 (-11.4% y/y), the lowest level since early April. In spot market trading yesterday regular unleaded gasoline prices held at $1.61 per gallon, down four cents from last week's average.
Oil prices slipped with the spot price of WTI crude down to $65.62 per bbl. (+3.6% y/y). Natural gas prices also slipped to $5.30/mmbtu (-50.7% y/y) in spot trading.
The latest Short-Term Energy Outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is available here.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 09/09/06 | 09/02/06 | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 471.8 | 473.2 | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 2.9% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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