Record U.S. Foreign Trade Deficit Swelled By Higher Oil Prices

Higher oil prices helped boost the U.S. foreign trade deficit to a new record in July of $68.0B from an unrevised $64.8 B in June. Consensus expectations had been for a somewhat shallower deficit of $65.5B.

Imports of goods & services jumped 1.0% m/m driven higher by a 1.4% surge in goods imports. That gain was goosed by a 4.8% (36.5% y/y) spike in the value of petroleum imports as the price of imported crude oil rose 4.5% to $64.84 per bbl. (32.1% y/y). However, the quantity of crude petroleum imports fell 5.9% (+3.0% y/y).

Imports of nonpetroleum products rose 0.6% (11.1% y/y) as imports of capital goods increased 2.3% (11.8% y/y) but nonauto consumer goods imports rose just 0.5% (10.4% y/y). Automotive imports also fell 5.3% (+6.0% y/y) while imports of foods, feeds & beverages jumped 3.9% (11.1% y/y).

Total exports fell 1.1% after a 2.3% surge in June and a like gain in May. A 3.7% decline in capital goods exports (+11.1% y/y) pulled the July total lower along with a 0.5% (+16.8% y/y) slip in foods, feeds & beverages. Nearly half of the July decline in capital goods exports was due to lower civilian aircraft (-0.8% y/y). Exports of nonauto consumer goods posted another strong gain and rose 1.5% (14.3% y/y).

Services exports in July rose 0.1% (8.3% y/y) as private travel services exports rose just 0.5% (5.5% y/y). Imports of services declined 0.6% (+10.5% y/y).

The U.S. trade deficit in goods with China improved slightly to $19.6B in July ($201.5B in 2005).

The latest Short-Term Energy Outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is available here.

Small business optimism in August reversed all of the prior month's uptick and fell 2.2%, according to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB). At 95.9 the index was at its lowest level since March of 2003.

During the last ten years there has been a 70% correlation between the level of the NFIB index and the two quarter change in real GDP.

Respondents expecting the economy to improve fell moderately but the percentage expecting higher real sales in six months plunged.

The percentage of firms planning to increase employment improved to the highest level since January and the number of firms currently with one or more job openings rose slightly. During the last ten years there has been a 72% correlation between the NFIB percentage and the y/y change in nonfarm payrolls.

The percent planning to raise capital expenditures fell to 28%, below the 32% of last year..The percentage of firms planning to raise average selling prices slipped back to 29% and the percentage of firms actually raising prices also slipped to 22%. During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between the change in the producer price index and the level of the NFIB price index.

About 24 million businesses exist in the United States. Small business creates 80% of all new jobs in America.

Evolution of Retail Payments and the Role of the Federal Reserve, yesterday's speech by Federal Reserve Board Vice Chairman Donald L. Kohn, is available here.

Yesterday we reported a fall in Japanese machine orders in July. Today's releases of a rise in corporate goods prices (formerly wholesale prices) and a slight deterioration in consumer confidence in August are two more indicators that suggest that the outlook for Japan's economy is becoming less sanguine.

Corporate goods prices rose 0.6% from July to August and were 5.8% above August, 2005. The principal cause of the rise in the total index has been the prices of imported goods, particularly petroleum and metals. Prices of Chemicals and Related Goods rose 2.8% in the month of August and were 13.6% above August, 2005. The comparable figures for Metals and Related Products were 0.1% and 25.2%. The year to year increases in the total Corporate Goods Prices Index and the year to year increases in the price index of imported Metals and Related products is shown in the first chart.

Apparently, Japanese businessmen have had trouble passing their rising costs on to the consumer. The second chart compares the year to year price increases in the Corporate Goods Price Index with those of the Consumer Price Index. It is clear that the increases in corporate prices have had little impact on the consumer prices. The inability to pass on higher costs will affect corporate profits negatively.

Consistent data on consumer confidence in Japan are available only from April, 2004 when the Economic and Social Research Institute of the Cabinet integrated the Consumer Confidence Survey, the Monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, and the One-person household Consumer Confidence Survey into the current survey. Consumer confidence is based on consumers' appraisals of their overall livelihood, income growth, employment, and willingness to purchase durable goods and is expressed in a diffusion index. Ever since the inception of the series, the index has remained below the 50 level, suggesting that, on balance, pessimists outweigh optimists. The index was 47.8 in August, down from 48.6 in July and from 48.4 in August, 2005. The available data are plotted in the third chart. It appears that the improvement in confidence that began in early 2005.may be at an end.

Although business seems to have trouble passing on its increased cost to consumers, a majority of consumers now expect prices to rise year from now. As shown in the third chart almost 60% of the households expect prices to rise up to 5% over the next year and 23.4% expect prices to remain unchanged. A year ago, in August, 2005, 41.8% expected prices to rise up to 5% and 43.4% expected prices to remain unchanged. In the chart we have added the percent of households expecting prices to rise up to 2% and those expecting prices to rise by more than 2%, but less than 5% and compared this series with the percent of households expecting prices to remain the same.