Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070131k.jpg" width="353">
The Chicago Purchasing Manager&#39;s Assn. reported that its January business barometer fell to 48.8. It was the first month the diffusion index of factory sector activity fell below the break even line of 50 since 2003.
During the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the index and the three month change in US factory sector industrial production.
Lower new orders and weaker employment accounted for much of the weakening while production was up.
The prices paid index dropped to to the lowest level since late 2003.During the last ten years there has been an 89% correlation between the level of the prices diffusion index and the three month change in the core PPI for intermediate good.
The latest statement from the Federal Reserve Board can be found <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/monetary/2007/20070131/default.htm"> here</a>.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S2/@S203/@S203.htm">Chicago PMI</a></th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;January</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp; December</th>
<th scope="col">Jan. &#39;06 </th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
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<td class="firstcol">Chicago PMI Business Barometer Index</td>
<td>48.8</td>
<td>51.6</td>
<td>58.1</td>
<td>56.8</td>
<td>60.4</td>
<td>62.8</td>
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The Chicago Purchasing Manager's Assn. reported that its January business barometer fell to 48.8. It was the first month the diffusion index of factory sector activity fell below the break even line of 50 since 2003. During the last [...]

Chicago Purchasing Managers Survey Soft

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070131g.jpg" width="353">
The value of construction put in place in December fell 0.4% after an upwardly revised 0.1% November uptick. Consensus expectations had been for no change.
For the full year, construction spending grew 4.8%, the weakest since 2002 after 2005&#39;s 10.7% surge.
Residential building continued it&#39;s recent rate of decline, despite warmer temperatures, and fell 1.6%. New single family building dropped 2.2% after a 3.o% slide during November and it lowered activity 22.2% below the peak this past February. Spending on improvements also slipped 0.2% (+7.8% y/y).
During the last twenty years there has been an 84% correlation between the q/q change in the value of residential building and its contribution to growth in real GDP.
Nonresidential building rose 0.9% after an unrevised 1.4% November jump. Office construction surged 1.4% (22.1% y/y) and multi-retail building soared 4.1% (21.4% y/y).
Public construction spending rose 0.6%. Spending on highways &amp; streets, nearly one third of the value of public construction spending, fell 1.1% (+9.6% y/y).
These more detailed categories represent the Census Bureau&#146;s reclassification of construction activity into end-use groups. Finer detail is available for many of the categories; for instance, commercial construction is shown for Automotive sales and parking facilities, drugstores, building supply stores, and both commercial warehouses and mini-storage facilities. Note that start dates vary for some seasonally adjusted line items in 2000 and 2002 and that constant-dollar data are no longer computed.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E907/@E90701/@E90701.HTM">Construction Put-in-place</a></th>
<th scope="col">December</th>
<th scope="col">November</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
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<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>-1.4%</td>
<td>4.8%</td>
<td>10.7%</td>
<td>11.5%</td>
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<td class="firstcol">Private</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>-4.6%</td>
<td>-4.6%</td>
<td>12.0%</td>
<td>14.3%</td>
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<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Residential</td>
<td>-1.6%</td>
<td>-1.4%</td>
<td>-12.5%</td>
<td>-1.7%</td>
<td>13.9%</td>
<td>18.6%</td>
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<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Nonresidential</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>14.5%</td>
<td>16.2%</td>
<td>7.4%</td>
<td>5.3%</td>
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<td class="firstcol">Public</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>10.5%</td>
<td>10.2%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
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The value of construction put in place in December fell 0.4% after an upwardly revised 0.1% November uptick. Consensus expectations had been for no change. For the full year, construction spending grew 4.8%, the weakest since 2002 [...]

U.S. Construction Spending Off Again

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070131f.jpg" width="353">
The ADP Nat&#39;l Employment Report, reported by the payroll processor, indicated that private nonfarm payrolls rose 152,000 during January. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics employment figure will be published this Friday.
Last month, ADP&#39;s measure of private nonfarm payrolls for December indicated a 40,000 decline in jobs that was followed by a BLS report that private nonfarm payrolls rose 150,000.
ADP compiled the estimate from its database of individual companies&#39; payroll information. Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, the St. Louis economic consulting firm, developed the methodology for transforming the raw data into an economic indicator.
According to ADP and Macro Advisers, the correlation between the monthly percentage change in the ADP estimate and that in the BLS data is 0.90.
The ADP National Employment Report data is maintained in Haver&#39;s USECON database; historical data go back to December 2000. The figures in this report cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in the public sector, which rose an average 11,083 during the last twelve months.
The full ADP National Employment Report can be found <a href="http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/PDF/NER_December_Release_FINAL.pdf">here</a>, and the ADP methodology is explained <a href="http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/PDF/ADPNERMethodology.pdf">here</a>.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EB/@EB25/@EB25.HTM">LAXEPA@USECON</a></th>
<th scope="col">January</th>
<th scope="col">December</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
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<td class="firstcol">Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (Chg.)</td>
<td>152,000</td>
<td>-40,000</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
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The ADP Nat'l Employment Report, reported by the payroll processor, indicated that private nonfarm payrolls rose 152,000 during January. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics employment figure will be published this Friday. Last month, [...]

ADP Report: Private Payrolls Improved

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070131d.jpg" width="353">
The employment cost index for private industry workers increased 0.8% last quarter. That was less than the 1.0% rise expected by the Consensus, but during the latter part of 2006 the increases clearly accelerated versus the prior year.
For the full year 2006, the ECI grew 3.1% versus a 3.0% gain during 2005.
Wages &amp; salaries grew 0.7% after a 0.8% 3Q rise. The full year saw an acceleration to 3.1% growth from 2.5% in 2005 and that was the fastest since 2001. Factory sector wages grew 0.7% (NSA, 2.3% y/y) and wages in the service-producing industries also grew 0.7% (3.3% y/y), the fastest in three years.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070131e.jpg" width="353">
Benefit costs in private industry sustained the prior strong 3Q gain and grew 1.0% reflecting a 1.1% (3.7% y/y) surge in service industries.
The 12-month gain in health insurance benefits was stable at 4.9% but that was down from a 6.4% increase during 2005, a 7.3% rise during 2004 and a 10.5% 2003 rise.
To view the latest release with all the industry detail visit BLS <a href="http://www.bls.gov/news.release/eci.nr0.htm">site</a>.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EB/@EB08/@EB08.HTM">ECI- Private Industry Workers</a></th>
<th scope="col">4Q &#39;06</th>
<th scope="col">3Q &#39;06</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
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<td class="firstcol">Compensation</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
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<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Wages &amp; Salaries</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
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<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Benefit Costs</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
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The employment cost index for private industry workers increased 0.8% last quarter. That was less than the 1.0% rise expected by the Consensus, but during the latter part of 2006 the increases clearly accelerated versus the prior [...]

Employment Cost Index Remained Firm

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070131a.jpg" width="353">
U.S. real GDP grew 3.5% (AR) last quarter. It was both the fastest growth since 1Q06 and beat Consensus expectations for a 3.0% rise. The yearend figure raised growth for the full year to 3.4%, slightly ahead of 3.2% during 2005.
A 1.6 percentage point contribution to growth from an improved net export deficit was the largest contribution from foreign trade in ten years. It came due to a 2.4% (9.2% y/y) gain in exports while imports fell 3.2% (+3.1% y/y).<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070131b.jpg" width="353">
Final sales to domestic purchasers managed a respectable 2.4% gain despite a 19.2% (-12.6% y/y) drop in residential investment. That was the largest shortfall since early 1991. Personal consumption expenditures grew 4.4% (3.7% y/y) as spending on furniture &amp; household equipment soared 15.1% (11.7% y/y).
Nonresidential fixed investment fell 0.4% (6.8% y/y) after a 10.% gain the prior quarter. Spending in each sector fell except for information processing equipment which rose a slight 1.8% (7.8% y/y) after a 10.0% jump during 3Q.
Reduced inventory accumulation subtracted 0.7 percentage points to 4Q GDP after positive contributions during the prior two quarters.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070131c.jpg" width="353">
The GDP chain price index rose just 1.5%, its weakest quarterly advance since early 2003. The gain was restrained by a decline (-0.8%, +1.9% y/y) in the PCE chain price index which fell not only because of lower energy prices but lower durable goods prices as well. The services chain price index rose 3.4% (3.15 y/y), its fastest gain in a year. Less food &amp; energy the PCE chain price index grew 2.1% (2.3% y/y).
Milton Friedman on Inflation from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/mt/20070101/cover.pdf">here</a>.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E7/@E701/@E701.HTM">Chained 2000$, % AR</a></th>
<th scope="col">4Q &#39;06</th>
<th scope="col">3Q &#39;06</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
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<td class="firstcol">GDP</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
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<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Inventory Effect</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
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<td class="firstcol">Final Sales</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
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<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Foreign Trade Effect</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
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<td class="firstcol">Domestic Final Demand</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
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<td class="firstcol">Chained GDP Price Index</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
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U.S. real GDP grew 3.5% (AR) last quarter. It was both the fastest growth since 1Q06 and beat Consensus expectations for a 3.0% rise. The yearend figure raised growth for the full year to 3.4%, slightly ahead of 3.2% during 2005. A [...]

US 4Q GDP Growth Firmer Than Expected

Louise Curley

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070130d.jpg" width="353">
The economic news out of Japan is ambiguous. Production and exports are strong, employment, retail sales and family living expenditures are weak. The yen has depreciated sharply in recent weeks against the euro and the dollar. The yen is, currently, at its lowest point against the Euro since the introduction of the Euro in 1999.
Japanese industrial production made a new record in December, 2006 at 109.5 (2000=100), exceeding previous peak levels reached in 1991, 1997 and 2000 as can be seen in the first chart.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070130e.jpg" width="353">
The strength in the production sector has not come from domestic consumer demand but, rather, from export demand. The second chart compares the index of retail trade and the value index of exports, both with a base of (2000=100). The index of retail sales was 92.0 in December, down from 92.2 in November and from 92,7 in December, 2005, while the value index of exports was 161.79 up 5.0% from November and 9.84% from December, 2005. Expenditures
Part of the sluggishness in retail trade is due to the relatively slow growth in employment. The third chart compares retail sales with total employment. There is a good correlation between the two series--.92. Although employment in December was 0.7% above the year ago figure it was 0.5% below November, 2006. Moreover, the unemployment rate rose by one percentage point to 4.1% in December.
Depreciations of the yen against the Euro and the U.S. dollar have stimulated the demand for exports. The very rapid depreciation of the yen in recent weeks is shown in the fourth chart.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070130f.jpg" width="353"><img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070130g.jpg" width="353">

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Dec&nbsp; 06</th>
<th scope="col">Nov 06</th>
<th scope="col">Dec 05</th>
<th scope="col">M/M %</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y%</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
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<td class="firstcol">Industrial Production (2000=100)</td>
<td>109.5</td>
<td>108.7</td>
<td>104.9</td>
<td>0.74</td>
<td>4.39</td>
<td>105.9</td>
<td>101.6</td>
<td>100.0</td>
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<tr>
<td class="firstcol"> Exports </td>
<td>161.7</td>
<td>154.0</td>
<td>147.21</td>
<td>5.00</td>
<td>9.84</td>
<td>145.70</td>
<td>127.10</td>
<td>118.42</td>
</tr>
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<td class="firstcol">Retail Trade</td>
<td>92.0</td>
<td>92.2</td>
<td>92.7</td>
<td>-0.22</td>
<td>-0.76</td>
<td>93.1</td>
<td>93.0</td>
<td>91.7</td>
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<td class="firstcol">Family Living Expenditures</td>
<td>92.8</td>
<td>93.8</td>
<td>94.0</td>
<td>-1.01</td>
<td>-1.31</td>
<td>93.0</td>
<td>94.8</td>
<td>95.6</td>
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<td class="firstcol">Employment (millions)</td>
<td>63.83</td>
<td>64.15</td>
<td>63.41</td>
<td>-0.50</td>
<td>0.66</td>
<td>63.83</td>
<td>63.57</td>
<td>63.29</td>
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<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate (%)</td>
<td>4.1</td>
<td>4.0</td>
<td>4.4</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>-0.3</td>
<td>4.1</td>
<td>4.4</td>
<td>4.7</td>
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The economic news out of Japan is ambiguous. Production and exports are strong, employment, retail sales and family living expenditures are weak. The yen has depreciated sharply in recent weeks against the euro and the dollar. The yen [...]

No Clear Direction for the Japanese Economy in Recent Statistics

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070130a.jpg" width="353">
The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey indicated that chain store sales last week reversed all of the increases during the prior four weeks with a 0.9% decline.
Nevertheless, the average level of chain store sales in January is up a notably firm 2.8% from the prior month.
During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS also gave back all of the gains during the prior two weeks with a 1.1% decline and for the month is 0.4% below December.
Access to Credit is the latest International Economic Trends from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and it is available <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/iet/20070201/cover.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">1/27/07</th>
<th scope="col">1/20/06</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>476.4</td>
<td>480.9</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>4.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


</html>

The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey indicated that chain store sales last week reversed all of the increases during the prior four weeks with a 0.9% decline. Nevertheless, the average level of chain store [...]

Weekly Chain Store Sales Reversed Prior Gains

Inflationary impact of surge in oil prices larger in Europe than in the US

Futures market thinks the price of oil will recede significantly over the next six months

Recent pickup in US defense orders could help support overall growth ahead

Cost of transporting crude oil has soared to series high

Market-based inflation expectations have not yet reflected recent surge in oil prices

Global equity markets are fearing a major economic disruption from soaring oil prices

Is recent drop in sentiment signaling softer growth ahead?

With the Iran conflict, geopolitical risk has soared to alarming levels

Soaring AI-related investment in US underpinning strong contribution of business spending to overall growth

AI-related outperformance of IP in Advanced Asia ex Japan

Resilient US economy pushing up Blue Chip 2026 outlook

US and China big leaders in adoption of AI models

Robust US demand for advanced technology products

China's export growth rotating away from the US

More pronounced upward revisions in countries more exposed to AI investment

Stable job openings and hiring rates point to cautious hiring

Global freight costs are on the rise while supply chain pressures are contained

Accelerating positive economic surprises in the G10 are boosting the global economy

Considerably more monetary ease expected from US and UK as Japan tightens

Tighter US immigration enforcement adversely impacting labor force

Economic policy uncertainty, while still elevated, is declining

Gradual disinflation and easier monetary policies across advanced economies

Largest October layoffs since 2003, led by technology

Subdued global shipping costs not yet pointing to supply chain problems

PMIs show still-elevated but slowing US inflation

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Winnie Tapasanun

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U.S. house prices were essentially unchanged m/m in February after rises of 0.2% in January (+0.1% initially) and 0.3% in December (unrevised), according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index. February marked the first flat reading since September following four consecutive m/m increases. The HPI reached a record high of 441.43 in February, up 14.8% from its August 2022 low of 384.59. The year-on-year growth rate eased to 1.7% in February—the lowest since March 2012—from 1.8% in January (+4.1% in February 2025), down from a high of 6.9% in February 2024 and well below a peak of 18.5% in February 2022.

By region, February FHFA house prices showed a mixed performance. House prices fell m/m in February (vs. January) in four of the nine census divisions. Declines were led by Mountain (-1.1% vs. +0.4%), followed by Pacific (-0.5% vs. +0.6%), West North Central (-0.4% vs. +0.3%), and Middle Atlantic (-0.1% vs. +0.3%). To the upside, house prices rose m/m in four census divisions in February (vs. January): South Atlantic (+0.6% vs. -0.2%), East South Central (+0.2% vs. +1.2%), New England (+0.2% vs. +0.6%), and West South Central (+0.2% vs. -0.3%). Meanwhile, house prices in East North Central were virtually unchanged m/m for the second successive month in February following seven straight m/m gains.

Year-on-year house prices continued to rise in February in most regions, except Mountain, Pacific, and West South Central. The y/y growth rate accelerated in February (vs. January) in only two of the nine census divisions: East South Central (+4.0% vs. +3.2%) and South Atlantic (+0.9% vs. +0.4%). Meanwhile, house price growth decelerated y/y in February (vs. January) in four regions: New England (+3.1% vs. +3.9%), West North Central (+3.1% vs. +3.6%), East North Central (+3.8% vs. +4.5%), and Middle Atlantic (+4.2% vs. +4.5%). To the downside, Mountain (-0.7% vs. 0.0%), Pacific (-0.4% vs. -0.3%), and West South Central (-0.1% vs. -0.4%) posted y/y declines in February.

The FHFA house price index is a weighted purchase-only index that measures average price changes in repeat sales of the same property. An associated quarterly index includes refinancing the same kind of properties. The indexes are based on transactions involving conforming conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Only mortgage transactions on single-family properties are included.

The FHFA data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database.

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- February FHFA HPI 0.0% m/m; +1.7% y/y, lowest since Mar. ’12.
- House prices down m/m in four of nine census divisions, led by Mountain (-1.1%); up in four, driven by South Atlantic (+0.6%); flat in East North Central.
- House prices up y/y in six of nine regions, led by Middle Atlantic (+4.2%), but down in Mountain (-0.7%), Pacific (-0.4%), and West South Central (-0.1%).

U.S. FHFA House Prices Flat in February After Four Straight M/M Gains

Tian Yong Woon

In this week’s Letter, we cover the latest developments and implications of the Middle East conflict for Asia, while also making space for other important themes, including artificial intelligence (AI). The Middle East conflict remains in a no deal state coming out of the weekend, though some early Monday optimism emerged in Asian markets following Iran’s reported offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz (chart 1). Nonetheless, as the Strait closure drags on, so too do the fiscal costs of domestic fossil fuel subsidies across Asia, which have been shown to move closely with crude oil prices (chart 2). While such measures offer direct relief by cushioning household energy costs, they remain difficult to sustain over the long haul.

Over the week, we also saw a further fraying in regional monetary policy trends, with the Philippines hiking its policy rate for the first time in about two years amid inflation concerns, while Indonesia stood pat on rates (chart 3). Investor attention is likely to remain fixed on monetary policy this week, with the Bank of Japan due to decide on policy. Expectations for an April hike have faded amid the persistent Middle East conflict, though yen weakness continues to present a source of concern (chart 4). The week also brings China’s latest PMI readings (chart 5), adding to the recent run of hard data accompanying the Q1 GDP release.

Beyond the Middle East conflict, the evolution of AI continues to demand close attention. Before geopolitical tensions took centre stage, AI was the dominant market narrative — and that enthusiasm has hardly faded. If anything, recent developments suggest the story is broadening: use cases are expanding, scalability is improving, and access is widening beyond large corporates to the mass market — increasingly spilling into the realm of physical AI. It may well be this persistent wave of optimism that is helping to underpin equity valuations, even as the geopolitical backdrop darkens (chart 6).

**The Middle East conflict**
About two months in, we remain stuck in the limbo of the US-Iran conflict, which has left the Strait of Hormuz largely closed and much of the world starved of the critical oil flows needed to power the global economy. The back and forth between the US and Iran has persisted in recent weeks, with both sides again failing to reach a peace deal over the weekend, though Monday’s news of Iran offering to reopen the Strait has revived some hope in markets. In truth, commodity and market valuations do not hinge so much on a peace deal itself, but rather on the resumption of oil flows through the Strait, something that could materialise even in the absence of a formal deal, though any agreement that includes and credibly delivers such a reopening would likely be warmly received by markets. Until then, market gyrations are likely to persist, with prices fluctuating in response to each new snippet of news. And until then, the world will continue both to be starved of, while gradually adapting to, the drip feed of oil flows emerging from the Strait.

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**The fiscal costs of the Middle East conflict**
As the Middle East conflict drags on, so too does the strain on fiscal resources across parts of Asia, as the costs of energy-related subsidy programmes continue to mount. While such programmes have an immediate, direct, and tangible impact in shielding households from surging energy costs, they are far from sustainable, particularly if oil prices remain well above targeted levels or stay elevated for an extended period. As chart 2 illustrates, the costs of these explicit subsidy programmes tend to rise closely with crude oil prices, as seen in India and Indonesia. Other measures adopted elsewhere, such as drawing down oil reserves, may be less fiscally costly, but are similarly difficult to sustain indefinitely. In both respects, the clock is ticking, and the world continues to hold its breath as the conflict drags on.

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**The latest central bank responses to the conflict**
Over the past week, Asia saw two central bank decisions. The Philippines’ (BSP) opted to deliver its first rate hike in about two years, while Indonesia’s (BI) chose to stand pat on policy rates and instead committed to stepped up FX intervention (chart 3). This latest round of decisions points to a further fraying of what had been a broad regional monetary policy consensus, namely that central banks would delay additional easing while maintaining a high bar for outright tightening. Domestic considerations, however, remain paramount. In the Philippines’ case, the central bank has moved to rein in inflation, which is already showing notable signs of price pass through stemming from disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz. That said, BSP is not the first in the region to buck the reluctance to tighten. Singapore’s central bank had already tightened policy in mid-April, albeit through its own distinct framework, given its use of the exchange rate rather than policy rates as the primary channel for monetary policy.

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**The week ahead**
Looking to the week ahead, a major central bank decision looms in Japan. Market expectations for the Bank of Japan to deliver a rate hike at its April meeting have ebbed amid the persistence of the Middle East conflict, to which Japan remains particularly vulnerable given its reliance on oil imports flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, inflation in Japan has yet to become a major concern, with recent readings having picked up but not yet entering troubling territory. One potential source of concern, however, lies with the Japanese yen, which has remained on a weakening trend since early last year (chart 4). That depreciation has been one of the key arguments underpinning calls for further rate hikes.

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The week also brings China’s latest PMIs into focus. March saw a divergence between China’s official PMI readings, which improved, and the unofficial readings from RatingDog, which instead pulled back. Nonetheless, both official and unofficial gauges remained in expansionary territory (chart 5), with investors now watching closely to see whether that resilience can be sustained amid ongoing stresses from the Middle East, or whether offsetting drivers can continue to keep Chinese business sentiment and prospects buoyant.

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**Beyond the strait**
Moving beyond the Middle East conflict, a whole host of developments continue to unfold globally, many of which have in fact helped offset some of the pessimism wrought by the Strait’s chokehold. One such development is artificial intelligence (AI), which had dominated headlines before the outbreak of the conflict and continues to advance at breakneck pace. AI capabilities are still rapidly evolving, while practical applications, such as physical AI embodied in humanoid robots, are beginning to show broader and stronger use cases. Production of such robots is also becoming increasingly scalable and within reach not just for industrial complexes and healthcare, but for the mass market as well. It is perhaps growing optimism around these prospects that has helped keep equity valuations buoyant, even in the face of the festering conflict in the Middle East. Moreover, while concerns over AI-driven job displacement persist, new opportunities are emerging as well, particularly for AI adopters, with a growing share of job postings in Western economies increasingly referencing AI-related skills, as shown in chart 6.

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Asia

Economic Letter from Asia: Not Just About the Strait

Robert Brusca

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**The Distributive Trades Survey**

The U.K. Distributive Trades Survey for April 2026 and the look-ahead expectation readings for May paint an extremely soured outlook for the U.K. economy.

**Retail ranking**: Surveys for retail sales compared to a year ago, orders compared to a year ago, and sales evaluated for the time of year all have rankings near zero, which is the worst result on this timeline. This zero distinction applies to retail sales compared to a year ago. The best ranking is 11.6%; that is for sales evaluated for the time of year. Orders compared to a year ago have a 4.2 percentile standing. The stock-to-sales ratio—which is a completely different concept—shows that the inventory-to-sales ratio has a 29.9 percentile standing.

**Retail diffusion**: The raw April diffusion readings (up minus down diffusion) show that sales compared to a year ago slipped to a reading of -68 in April from -52 in March. Orders fell to -46 in April from -26 in March. Sales evaluated for the time of year fell to -32 April from -23 in March. All three measures weakened, and all three weakened decisively, resulting in extremely weak rankings. All of the rankings are executed on data back to 2002.

**Expectations for retailing**: The expectations readings for May show slippage again across all three metrics: expected sales compared to a year ago, expected orders compared to a year ago, and expected sales for the time of year. Expected sales compared to a year ago fell to -60 in May from -49 in April. Orders compared to a year ago declined to -45 in May from -30 in April, and sales for the time of year slipped to -43 from -19. In May, these readings have rankings in a 0.4 percentile standing for sales compared to a year ago, a 1.8 percentile standing for sales evaluated relative to the time of year, and a 4.6 percentile standing for orders compared to a year ago. These two panels on current and expected retail sales volumes are just simply terrible: weak monthly, weak in ranking terms, and showing slipping momentum.

The distributor trade series also provides data on the wholesale sector. While the wholesale sector is not quite as beat up as the retail sector, it's still extremely weak. There is no cause for any kind of hope that things are getting better based on wholesaling trends.

**Wholesaling**: The wholesale survey for sales compared to a year ago edged lower to -32 in April from -31 in March. Orders compared to a year ago remained at a reading of -41 in April. Sales evaluated for the time of year improved to a reading of -20 in April from -39 in March—a significant step up, but still very weak. The percentile standings for these three categories show sales compared to a year ago at the 8.8 percentile, orders compared to a year ago at the 5.6 percentile, and sales evaluated for the time of year at the 14.8 percentile.

**Wholesale Expectations**: The look-ahead observations, which provide expectations for wholesaling in May, show a similar constellation of readings, with sales compared to a year ago falling to -37 in May from -27 in April and orders compared to a year ago falling to -42 from -38, while sales evaluated for the time of year improved to  16 from  37. That category for wholesale sales improved both in April in real time and in May for expectations; however, it continues to have a very weak percentile standing, at the 17.9 percentile in May, while sales for a year ago have a 6.7 percentile standing and orders for a year ago have a 6.0 percentile standing.

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While some of the global PMI data have improved, these survey data for the U.K. are particularly dour. The war in Ukraine drags on, and there's a new conflict in Iran that has shut the Strait of Hormuz, creating energy problems for much of Europe. More broadly, supply chains have been harmed. In addition, the U.K. is undergoing a bout of political instability, as its Prime Minister is under pressure and a good deal of political uncertainty is being worsened by deteriorating economic performance.

Both the U.K. and the European Monetary Union had been showing some progress on inflation until the Iran war hit. Now, as the oil prices are up so sharply, headline inflation is going to be worse everywhere and there will probably be a bit more attention directed to the core inflation rate. However, the U.K. has had inflation too hot for a while, and it has failed to settle down. At its last meeting, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee warned that if the war was still ongoing at the next meeting, there would be a risk of a rate hike. So, it would seem that a rate hike is going to be in play unless the economy falls off a cliff first, which, based on the distributive trades data, is also something that could happen. The U.K. economy appears to be on very unsound footing, and what happens next is just about anybody's guess.

United Kingdom

U.K. Retail Sales: Worse Than During Covid

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The onset of the war in Iran appears to have hit the German economy extremely hard as the Ifo survey shows very substantial and broad-based decline across its survey in April. The Ifo survey features readings for five sectors as well as an aggregate reading, and it surveys them for climate, current conditions, and expectations. The decline in the Ifo survey is present for all three concepts and across all five sectors, marking the weakening in April as a highly significant and extremely disturbing development. Only manufacturing in the current conditions survey escapes a month-to-month decline.

**The Ifo sequences**: The **climate** reading fell both overall and across each of the five sectors. **Current conditions** declined for the overall and for four of the five sectors, with manufacturing the sole exception. **Expectations** declined for the overall and for all sectors. Several of the sector declines were for a very substantial magnitude, especially when compared to historic changes in these indexes.

**Monthly changes in readings—severe broad deterioration**
The month-to-month change in the climate reading has weakened more month-to-month 19% of the time. That overall result, however, is boosted by manufacturing where the monthly change has been weaker 35% of the time (on data back to 2011). However, all other sectors have seen climate weaker m/m only 2.3% to 6.3% of the time! The current situation readings weakened, with the headline weakening more m/m 11% of the time. This was boosted by manufacturing, the only sector that improved on the month; its ranking on change was in its 85th percentile—quite good and truly stand-alone good news. The other current changes by sector ranged from construction being weaker 1.7% of the time, to retailing that has been weaker about 30% of the time in terms of m/m changes. Expectation changes were uniformly terrible, with the headline drop weaker only 6.3% of the time and sector change month-to-month weaker between 9% and 1.7% of the time. The monthly weakening was uniform and substantial. I document it with these calculations, but you can also see it on the chart above.

**Climate**: The bottom line is that the all-sector index for climate fell to -20.3 in April from -18 in March, placing it at a 10.5 percentile standing on data since 1993. The sector ranking is the highest for construction with a 42.2 percentile standing and the weakness for services at a 1.1 percentile standing—weaker than the table reading nearly 99% of the time. In terms of percentile standing levels or monthly changes, conditions are closing in on grim.

**Current conditions**: Current conditions saw the all-sector index slip to -5.3 in April from -2.4 in March. The headline ranking stands at a 9.8 percentile mark, making it—like the climate reading—weaker than its current reading only about 10% of the time. The strongest reading under current conditions is for construction which has a 60.6 percentile standing; it is the only ranking in the table above its historic median. Manufacturing, the only sector in the survey that improved month-to-month, has a 22.5 percentile standing, while services record the weakest percentile standing under current conditions, at an 8.4 percentile standing.

**Expectations:** The all-sector index for expectations fell to -25.3 in April from -19.9 in March, placing it at a 6.3 percentile standing. The percentile standings across sectors range from a high of 9.5% for manufacturing to a low of 1.5% for retailing. Up until earlier this year, the Ifo was showing signs of improvement; however, all of that has simply collapsed in the last month. Weakness is across economic concepts and sectors, as documented above. For reference, the table also gives a separate set of rankings on where the various indexes stand since the invasion of Ukraine, since that was another marked event that drove the index, that had been improving after Covid, down to lower levels.  Ranked even on this reduced scale looking at conditions only since the invasion of Ukraine, when conditions have generally been weaker, the current rankings across the Ifo survey remained extremely weak. This is a very disturbing survey for the German economy.

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Germany

German Ifo Plunges Everywhere

Andrew Cates

**Energy shock lifts inflation, trims growth**
The IMF’s latest WEO revisions for 2026 broadly reflect the classic stagflationary impact of the recent Middle East energy shock, with growth downgraded and inflation revised higher across most major economies. Higher energy prices act as a tax on real incomes while simultaneously pushing up costs. That said, the picture is not uniform: a number of economies—notably the US, China and India—have seen growth upgrades, reflecting stronger-than-expected momentum so far in 2026. By contrast, the UK stands out at the stagflationary extreme, combining one of the largest growth downgrades with a relatively strong inflation uplift—consistent with its weaker underlying momentum, greater energy sensitivity and more persistent domestic inflation dynamics. More broadly, while the global revisions remain modest—pointing to resilience in activity—the message is that disinflation is no longer a smooth glide back to target but increasingly contingent on energy prices and geopolitical developments.

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**Markets largely shrug off rising economic pessimism**
Notwithstanding a more downbeat assessment from economists—including the IMF’s stagflationary tilt to the outlook—there has been remarkably little follow-through into financial markets. Measures of systemic stress in both the US and UK remain low by historical standards, suggesting that investors are, for now, largely looking through the Middle East conflict. There are several possible explanations: corporate profits remain resilient, the AI-driven investment narrative continues to dominate market thinking, and markets may be assuming that any energy shock will be temporary and contained. In effect, investors appear to be pricing a benign baseline in which geopolitical risks do not materially disrupt growth, inflation expectations or policy. The UK is a partial exception, with a somewhat more visible uptick in stress, which aligns more closely with the IMF’s more challenging growth-inflation trade-off and the economy’s greater sensitivity to energy prices.

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**Volatility falls despite deteriorating growth surprises**
Market optimism is also increasingly at odds with the incoming data flow. Typically, equity volatility declines when growth surprises are positive and inflation surprises are benign. However, the recent pattern has broken that relationship. Growth surprises across the G10 have turned increasingly negative (our series is inverted in the chart below), yet volatility has continued to fall. In other words, markets are becoming less sensitive to weakening macro data, continuing to price a benign outlook even as the data deteriorate. This divergence reinforces the broader theme: investors are, for now, looking through both geopolitical risks and softer economic momentum, placing greater weight on resilience in earnings, the AI-driven narrative and the assumption that policy will remain supportive.

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**Inflation Nowcasts Have Jumped**
Incoming data suggest that headline inflation has moved higher in recent weeks, broadly in line with expectations given the rise in energy prices following the Middle East shock. Nowcasts for CPI across the major economies show a clear rebound in March and April from the lows seen at the start of 2026, with the move occurring in a relatively synchronised fashion. This reinforces the view that the recent pickup in inflation is being driven primarily by a common external factor—energy.

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**Energy shock not yet feeding into underlying inflation**
However, the detailed breakdown of March inflation outcomes suggests that this remains, for now, a largely headline-driven phenomenon. While headline CPI prints were firm across most economies, core inflation—stripping out energy and food—was more subdued and in some cases weaker. This indicates that there has been very limited pass-through from higher energy prices into broader goods and services inflation at this early stage. In other words, the shock is still being absorbed rather than propagated. That distinction is critical for policy and markets alike: as long as second-round effects remain contained, central banks may be able to look through the near-term rise in inflation, even as headline rates move higher.

260423Z5.jpg

**Inflation Expectations Rising as Growth Sentiment Falters**
It remains early days, and much will hinge on how inflation expectations evolve from here. The latest ZEW survey for Germany already conveys the hallmarks of a classic stagflationary shock, with macroeconomic expectations weakening even as inflation expectations have ratcheted sharply higher. This shift is important: while the recent rise in headline inflation has so far shown limited pass-through into core, a sustained increase in expectations would raise the risk of second-round effects and make the inflation process more persistent. In that sense, the ZEW data highlight the key fault line in the current environment—whether the energy-driven shock remains contained, or begins to embed itself more broadly through expectations and pricing behaviour.

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Financial markets have remained notably calm in recent weeks despite rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, a more downbeat macroeconomic narrative and elevated uncertainty. Measures of financial stress and volatility remain low, and equity markets continue to look through both the conflict and softer data. That resilience sits alongside a more nuanced macro backdrop. The IMF’s latest WEO revisions point to a classic stagflationary energy shock—growth downgraded and inflation revised higher—although the global impact remains modest and uneven, with some economies still benefiting from stronger momentum (chart 1). At the same time, market pricing appears increasingly detached from the data flow, with volatility declining even as growth surprises have turned more negative relative to inflation (charts 2 and 3). Incoming inflation data reinforce the idea of a largely headline-driven shock, with nowcasts rising in line with higher energy prices but only limited pass-through into core inflation so far (charts 4 and 5). However, it remains early days. Survey evidence, such as the latest ZEW release, suggests that inflation expectations may already be responding in a more concerning way, with a marked rise alongside weakening growth sentiment (chart 6). Taken together, the key question for markets is whether this remains a contained, energy-driven shock that can be looked through—or whether it begins to embed more persistently via expectations, forcing a reassessment of the currently benign outlook.

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US 4Q GDP Growth Firmer Than Expected

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