- Index has moved sideways for over two years.
- Most components remain negative.
- Prices paid reading surges.
USA| Apr 25 2025Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index Declines in April; Expectations Diminish
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Apr 24 2025U.S. Existing Home Sales Fall Sharply in March
- Sales are lowest since September.
- Decline extends throughout the country.
- Median sales price increases.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Apr 24 2025U.S. Advance Durable Goods Orders Surge During March
- Increase exceeds expectations after moderate February rise.
- Transportation orders account for all of last month’s gain.
- Nondefense capital goods less aircraft orders are minimally higher.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- CFNAI -0.03 in March vs. +0.24 in February.
- Two of four CFNAI components fall m/m and three make negative contributions.
- Personal Consumption & Housing index rises to the highest since Jan. ’23.
- CFNAI-MA3 declines to -0.01, the first negative reading since Dec.; still above -0.70 (recession signal).
USA| Apr 24 2025U.S. Unemployment Insurance Claims Hold Fairly Steady
- Initial claims equal the 222,000 forecast amount
- Continuing claims ease modestly; prior week revised down somewhat
- Insured unemployment rate maintains longstanding 1.2%
France| Apr 24 2025French Household Sentiment Marks Time
Household confidence in France has steadied after along climb up from an historically weak level. Still, confidence has only a 36.5 percentile standing.
Living standards show mixed changes this month. Standards compared to the past 12 months are a bit better month-to-month, while looking ahead, they are weaker and fall by 3 survey points.
However, unemployment expectations have moved sharply higher for the month, rising to 51 in April from 47 in March, to a very high percentile standing at the 70.4 percentile mark.
Price developments are moderating with weaker readings compared to 12 months ago. The percentile standings for prices, however, are modest, below the 50-percentile mark, showing these are below median readings both looking backward and looking ahead.
The savings environment has worsened both on backward-looking and forward-looking savings responses. And the rankings for these environments are both very high.
The saving environments dove-tails with a spending environment that did improve on the month, remains weak, and has a ranking at its 34th percentile. The environment is very favorable to save and not very favorable to spend.
The financial situation is little-changed in the month either looking-forward or looking-backward. That is a rather odd result, given the uncertainty over tariffs; but then maybe when policy causes uncertainty viewpoints freeze. On a month-to-month comparison, we see stronger financial situation ranking looking back 12-months that has an above median percentile standing at 65.4; but looking ahead there is a below median standing at the 44.2 percentile.
The table also presents two columns tracking the economic shock from before Covid to before the Russian invasion of Ukraine and secondly from that point to date. What this shows generally is that at the time of the invasion, most of the survey items had improved upon their pre-Covid readings. One exception is that unemployment concerns were still further elevated. But then from pre-invasion forward, most readings are substantially weaker. But in comparison, the change in unemployment is strikingly higher.
On balance, France’s household responses seem to exhibit some stickiness that may be a product of uncertainly. The overall readings remain weak.
USA| Apr 23 2025U.S. New Home Sales Improve in March; Prices Weaken
- Sales rise to highest level in six months.
- Changes in sales are mixed across the country.
- Median sales price falls to four-month low.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Refinancing loans fall sharply and purchase loan applications decline as well.
- Effective interest rate increases to two-month high.
- Average loan size falls sharply.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
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