U.S. Existing Home Sales Fall Sharply in March
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Sales are lowest since September.
- Decline extends throughout the country.
- Median sales price increases.
Existing home sales declined 5.9% (-2.4% y/y) during March to 4.02 million units after rising 4.4% to 4.270 million units in February, revised from 4.26 million, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 4.15 million unit sales. The March sales decline accompanied an easing in the effective 30-year mortgage interest rate to an average 6.65% in March from 6.84% in February. The sales figures are based on closings of sales signed over the past couple of months.
Existing single-family home sales in March declined 6.4% (-2.2% y/y) to 3.64 million units after a 5.7% increase to 3.89 million in February. Sales of condos and co-ops held steady (-5.0% y/y) at 380,000, following a 7.3% February decline.
Sales declined in all regions in March. Sales in the West fell 9.4% (+1.3% y/y) to 770,000 after a 13.3% strengthening in February. Sales in the South declined 5.7% (-4.2% y/y) to 1.81 million after a 4.9% February increase. Sales in the Northeast were off 2.0%, unchanged y/y to 490,000, down for the third straight month. Sales in the Midwest declined 5.0% (-3.1% y/y) to 950,000 units after holding steady in February.
The median price averaged by all existing homes (NSA) rose 1.7% (2.7% y/y) to $403,700 in March after a 0.9% February increase. Prices remained below a high of $426,900 in June 2024. The median price of an existing single-family home rose 1.8% (2.9% y/y) to $408,000 in March and the median price of condos and co-ops increased 2.3% (1.5% y/y) to $363,000 last month. Prices for all homes rose 2.3% (+3.5 y/y) in the Midwest to $302,100. In the South, prices rose 1.2% (0.6% y/y) to $360,400. Prices in the Northeast prices increased 0.8% (7.7% y/y) to $468,000 while in the West prices rose 1.1% (2.6% y/y) to $621,200.
The number of existing homes for sale (NSA) rose 8.1% (19.8% y/y) to 1.33 million units in March following a 4.2% February increase. The supply of homes on the market at the current selling rate (NSA) increased to 4.0 months. A high of 4.2 months occurred in September 2024. The record low in supply of 1.6 months occurred in January 2022.
The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability are compiled by the National Association of Realtors. The data on single-family home sales extend back to February 1968. Total sales and price data and regional sales can be found in Haver's USECON database. Regional price and affordability data and national inventory data are available in the REALTOR database. Mortgage interest rates can be found in the WEEKLY database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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