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    • Global| Dec 09 2008

      German Investors Slightly Less Pessimistic About The Outlook, But See Current Conditions Worsening


      The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim, Germany released the results of its December survey today. In spite of an increase of 8.3 percentage points in the balance of opinion of German investors and analystsregarding the macroeconomic outlook, they are still about as pessimistic as they ever have been. The recent decline in sentiment began in mid 2007 with the spreading effects of the United States housing crisis and reached a low in July of this year when the excess of pessimists over optimists reached 63.9%. The only other period when pessimists exceeded optimists for a prolonged period took place in 1992 and early 1993. At that time, the excess of pessimists reached a peak of 62.2% in December1993 as shown in the attached chart, which shows the history of the ZEW indicators.

      The reduction in the key interest rate of the European Central Bank, which now stands at 2.5%, down from 5.25% in September and the recent passage of a 32 billion euro stimulus plan by the German government may have helped to arrest the downward trend in pessimism regarding the outlook and to lead to the modest improvement in sentiment.

      In contrast to the improvement in sentiment regarding the outlook, investors and analysts became more pessimistic in December about current conditions . The excess of pessimists over optimists regarding current condition now stands at 64.5%, up from 50.4% in November and not far from the high negatives of 1993 and 2003, as can be seen in the attached chart. While the fiscal and monetary measures undertaken in recent weeks may have improved sentiment concerning the outlook, there have been few, if any, encouraging developments in the real economy.

      GERMANY  Dec 08Nov  08 Dec  07 M/M  chg Y/Y  chg 200720062005
      ZEW INDICATOR   (% BALANCE)--------
        Current Situation-64.5-50.463.5-14.1-128.07.375.918.3
        Future Conditions-45.2-53.5-37.28.3-8.0-47.5-3.022.3

      by:Louise Curley

      |in:Economy in Brief

    • Global| Dec 09 2008

      U.S. Chain Store Sales At 12-Month Low

      Chain store sales last week fell 0.8% after the 0.1% uptick during Thanksgiving week, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers-Goldman Sachs Index. The level of sales during the latest week was the lowest since [...]

      by:Tom Moeller

      |in:Economy in Brief

    • Global| Dec 09 2008

      U.S. Chain Store Sales At 12-Month Low

      Chain store sales last week fell 0.8% after the 0.1% uptick during Thanksgiving week, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers-Goldman Sachs Index. The level of sales during the latest week was the lowest since [...]

      by:Tom Moeller

      |in:Economy in Brief

    • Global| Dec 09 2008

      U.S. Gasoline Prices Fell Further to Their Lowest Since 2004

      The pump price for a gallon of regular gasoline fell last week to $1.70, the lowest level since early 2005 according to the U.S. Department of Energy survey. The latest price was down eleven cents per gallon from the prior week and [...]

      by:Tom Moeller

      |in:Economy in Brief

    • Global| Dec 09 2008

      U.S. Small Business Optimism Roughly Steady at 1975 Low

      According to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), small business optimism held roughly steady last month. At 87.8, the index rose 0.3% m/m from October after that month's 5.8% decline to the lowest level since [...]

      by:Tom Moeller

      |in:Economy in Brief

    • Global| Dec 09 2008

      U.S. Small Business Optimism Roughly Steady at 1975 Low

      According to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), small business optimism held roughly steady last month. At 87.8, the index rose 0.3% m/m from October after that month's 5.8% decline to the lowest level since [...]

      by:Tom Moeller

      |in:Economy in Brief

    • Global| Dec 08 2008

      Japan's Current Account Balance In Sharp Deterioration

      Japan's current account balance has deteriorated severely this year. The balance for the first 10 months of 2008 was a surplus 14,943 billion yen, compared with 21,206 billion yen surplus in the comparable period of 2007, a decline of [...]

      by:Louise Curley

      |in:Economy in Brief

    • Global| Dec 08 2008

      German Industrial Output Trends is Weaker Than Expectedly

      German industrial output fell by 2.1% in October and its sequential growth rates show a steady drumbeat of negativism more than an acceleration of weakness. This is in stark contrast to the unraveling in orders. But order weakness [...]

      by:Robert Brusca

      |in:Economy in Brief