Economy in Brief

Inventory decumulation remains a dominant trend behind the current economic downturn. Decumulation subtracted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth last year after a 0.4 percentage point subtraction in 2007, even before the recession [...]

U.S. producer prices for finished goods fell last month for the first time this year. The 1.2% decrease followed the 0.1% February uptick and it contrasted with Consensus expectations for no change in last month's index level. The [...]

Export and import growth trends in France continue to wither at very rapid rates. In February exports rose as imports fell by 0.2%. Still both exports and imports are dropping at better than a 33% annual rate over three months. The [...]

The recent recovery in consumer expenditures stuttered last month. March retail sales fell 1.1% after a 0.3% February increase that was revised up slightly. Some of that stutter reflected less money spent on gasoline but it [...]

The recent recovery in consumer expenditures stuttered last month. March retail sales fell 1.1% after a 0.3% February increase that was revised up slightly. Some of that stutter reflected less money spent on gasoline but it [...]

China is one of the earliest countries to report March trade data. On a seasonally unadjusted basis exports were up 39.1% in March after falling for five successive months. Exports are still 17% below the year ago figure, but that is [...]

The OECD trend restored leading indicators show that a very deep recession is underway. The declines in the LEIs over 6-months are the most severe of the modern post-war period. The LEI declines are sharper than in either of the two [...]

War in the Mideast, recession at home and TARP lifted the U.S. government's budget deficit to nearly $1 trillion during just the first half of this fiscal year. For all of FY09, the Congressional Budget Office recently estimated that [...]